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  • jt77316

    Daytona International Speedway –

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Duel 1: Thursday, 7:00 PM (FS1)
    — Duel 2: Thursday, 8:45 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 1: Friday, 5:05 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 12:30 PM (FS1)
    — Race: Daytona 500, Sunday, 2:30 PM (FOX)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 200 Laps, 500 miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 60; Stage 2: Lap 61 – 120; Stage 3: Lap 121 – 200
    — Expected Fuel/Pit Window – xx-xx Laps

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate.

    Daytona International Speedway –

    2.5 mile Super Speedway

    Similar Tracks: Talledega

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 07/01/2017: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
    — 02/18/2018: Austin Dillon
    — 07/07/2018: Erik Jones
    — 02/17/2019: Denny Hamlin
    — 07/07/2019: Justin Haley

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    07/01/2017: Brendan Gaughan (66.00 DK FPts) – Paul Menard (64.8 FD FPts)
    02/18/2018: Ryan Blaney (65.00 DK FPts) – Austin Dillon (70.3 FD FPts)
    07/07/2018: Erik Jones (78.75 DK FPts) – Erik Jones (73.9 FD FPts)
    02/17/2019: Kyle Busch (82.25 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (78.9 FD FPts)
    07/07/2019: Justin Haley (79.75 DK FPts) – Justin Haley (72.3 FD FPts)

    Data from Last 5 Daytona Races

    Driver Rating:

    1. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – 95.9
    2. Alex Bowman – 91.8
    3. Ryan Blaney – 90.7
    4. Kevin Harvick – 87.9
    5. Jimmie Johnson – 85.3

    Laps Led:

    1. Ryan Blaney – 141
    2. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – 97
    3. William Byron – 56
    4. Joey Logano – 54
    5. Kevin Harvick– 27

    Fastest Laps:

    1. Ty Dillon – 31
    2. Jimmie Johnson – 26
    3. Michael McDowell – 25
    4. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr – 19
    5. Clint Bowyer – 16

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather
    Jayski

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • gje627

    @stevengoo said...

    Is it too late to say I’m interested??

    Message to both you and @KingzLanding813 ….

    No I’m happy to share the file(s) … Per my post above I’m going to look at a few things and add some things, so it may be tomorrow (or more than likely Saturday) before I revise and make available.

    Hope that’s cool ….

  • gje627

    Sorry Jeff Gordon … disagree with your “aggressiveness” analysis …

    But hey, we understand you need to say something, and more importantly make sure viewers “stay-tuned” amidst all the NASCAR commercials.

    But who knows, you may be right. Wrecky Patrick Stenhouse (sorry Aaron Rodgers … by the way Danica scored big after she left Ricky since he didn’t want to get married) and Denny may “drive the like the wind.” … Just no reason to do so.

    Also, regarding wrecks, there is some fascinating analysis out there regarding drivers who wreck … not by me, but someone else (I question this person’s methodology frequently) but here it seems spot-on.

    Someday, when I can find it … I’ll share.

  • gje627

    Too bad for Suarez.

    Not an aggression crash, just a driver entering pit road crash.

  • BigRay

    That was a hell of a race by Logano. He was really working the side draft.

  • marker0357

    impressed by Austin Dillon as well.

  • starstx

    @gje627 said...

    Anyways, even though the sauce is secret … I can explain in a later post, if that’s cool.

    That would be great and thanks. I defintely started off similar to other sports where in general you want to use most of the cap … but each race is a lot different and how qualifying turns out … had to get comfortable with ignoring the cap and just building my lineups. But still wondered how much is too much lol.

    Thanks a ton

  • starstx

    @gje627 said...

    Again, thanks for stopping in and saying “Howdy !!!” :) …. I’ll post again in a little bit.

    Don’t forget the y’all over here in Texas!

  • starstx

    Being relatively new to getting back into Nascar 2 years ago … was last year considered a total bust? The group qualifying fiasco, the awful car packages that no matter how much PR spin they tried to put on it … I am hard pressed to recall anyone mentioning anything positive, I just remember a lot of races where no one could pass, dirty air mentioned 1000 times, the odd weather delays and postponements timings (Someone subscribe to Kevin Roth) … I recall the Haley win over Kurt Busch pitting. I do not have data to back this up but seemed like there was a ton of qualifying failures on every race and impound than the last year but I could be wrong.

    Am I off here? It just seemed like the year before last … races were much better.

    Would love to hear some Nascar vets thoughts on the overall state of last year.

    And thoughts on if we are in for more of the same in 2020 or if you think we some some improvements.

  • starstx

    With Daytona being a total crapshoot … the only strategy seems to be ending up with 6 drivers that will survive the race. It does seem like certain drivers have a knack for finishing the race … any merit to this or is it just a knack for getting lucky? I need to drill down more … the 20-ish mid to mid back pack looks like a sweet spot and where they lined up each race.

  • stevengoo

    @gje627 said...

    Message to both you and @KingzLanding813 ….

    No I’m happy to share the file(s) … Per my post above I’m going to look at a few things and add some things, so it may be tomorrow (or more than likely Saturday) before I revise and make available.

    Hope that’s cool ….

    thank you so much GJE.. normally a lurker here, but love reading your analysis!

  • jt77316

    @gje627 said...

    Great Question !!!

    One thing about correlations is that you kind of have to go on an acid trip sometimes to understand.

    See if I can explain (briefly … ouch).

    The correlation here does not mean:

    Start 1 Finish 1 in DK FPts
    Start 2 Finish 2 in DK FPts
    etc.

    It simply means, only for those drivers finishing in the optimal/standard optimal lineups the two numbers move together. Remember, here (for DK) we are eliminating 34 drivers from consideration and only looking at the top 6 (provided they are within salary constraints).

    The positive correlation indicates, that for those strictly “winning lineup” drivers only:

    1) For the most part they move together (regardless of starting position), and
    2) They move in the same direction (when one moves up the others move up as well).

    Again,, not considering the whole field, just drivers in the winning lineup (very, very, important here) this could mean, and for the Daytona 500 likely does mean something more like this (an example only):

    Start 34 Finish 1 in DK FPts
    Start 37 Finish 2 in DK FPts
    Start 29 Finish 3 in DK FPts

    Here the drivers are moving “mostly” together, in “very much” the same direction but not at a 1.0 Spearman, but still they are moving mostly together.

    Also remember, correlation measures direction and strength, but nothing else (Spearman does not measure linearity / Pearson does, fwiw).

    To further evaluate this “relationship” I would move on to Regression Analysis, using the actual continuous variable, as opposed to the discrete. I.e., simple linear regression as opposed to logit/probit or specialized (complicated !!) regression. Here, Pearson and not Spearman will be reported.

    Assuming someone here wants to discuss normal distributions … binomial distributions, poisson distributions … I get your point, but can we make that a conversation for later?

    Does this make more sense?

    Or is it … OUCH !!!

    EDIT: The very simple explanation (should have started with this) …. “Selecting the correct drivers based on starting position will likely be very important (but not absolutely critical … all the drivers starting in back could get caught-up in the “big one” wreck) in determining who will likely be in the DK winning GPP lineup on Sunday.”

    This makes a lot of sense actually. I was considering the field as a whole, and not the optimal. I will have to look at the info again through a different lens.

  • gje627

    I wouldn’t spend too much concentrating only on the correlations. I think they are interesting and helpful, but used in isolation, it is impossible to draw any real conclusions using only correlations and nothing else (or even correlation and regression, and nothing else). In our case, I think the best use of the correlations is to use in conjunction with individual driver numbers.

    To increase the utility of the correlations, I thought about ways to make their application more universal (standardize using z-scores, log transformations …). After eyeballing the raw numbers, then graphing, I’ve come to the conclusion that any minimal gain in utility will be unfavorably offset by the amount of work required to perform; and therefore I’m not going to do it.

    I have three other approaches that I rely more heavily on than correlations that are significantly more useful for making lineups, particularly regarding starting position driver selection.

    Theoretically, they are based in chaos theory, set theory and probability. At the base level, mathematics and statistics are really only about patterns. If you’re familiar with machine learning, then you’re familiar with the concepts of pattern recognition (classification/clustering). In a number-based DFS approach, our goal is to recognize, then isolate the patterns leading to success , and then replicate those patterns in the lineups we construct.

    Easy-Peasy !!!

    While the math all sounds intimidating it really isn’t. The calculations are actually very basic. The only real issue is programming, as a hundreds of calculations need to be accomplished The good news, machine learning algorithms written by really smart people (definitely not me !!!) do all the heavy lifting in the early stages.

    I’ll share, and you’ll see how are easy the numbers are to understand and how useful they will be in making lineups. For those who have been around awhile, you’ll probably recognize a lot of it.

  • gje627

    Ooops. When I sent everyone the “file” yesterday, I forgot to include all historical optimal Daytona DK and FD lineups.

    Since I may not update the file with more numbers until tomorrow, I’ll just make some tables quickly and post here. Tomorrow’s file will also include the optimals, as well some detail about them.

    Sorry.

  • gje627

    Per above, optimal lineups below. Note, races with more than one optimal lineup indicates that two or more lineups tied for optimal.

    Not sure if everything will fit, so you may need to zoom-out to see.

    All Daytona Optimal Lineups – Draftkings

    Race FPts Salary $ Lineup
    ————- ———- ————— —————————————————————————————-
    2015-17 265.00 49700 Brendan Gaughan,Alex Bowman,Landon Cassill,Matt DiBenedetto,Ryan Newman,Denny Hamlin
    2016-01 388.50 42800 Regan Smith,Michael McDowell,Aric Almirola,Ryan Newman,Martin Truex Jr,Denny Hamlin
    2016-17 363.75 38800 Cole Whitt,Michael McDowell,David Ragan,Trevor Bayne,Clint Bowyer,Brad Keselowski
    2017-01 420.25 40000 Brendan Gaughan,Michael Waltrip,AJ Allmendinger,Paul Menard,Ryan Blaney,Kasey Kahne
    2017-17 372.75 36700 Corey LaJoie,Brendan Gaughan,David Ragan,Michael McDowell,Paul Menard,Ricky Stenhouse Jr
    2018-01 359.25 42400 David Gilliland,Chris Buescher,Paul Menard,Aric Almirola,Austin Dillon,Ryan Blaney
    2018-18 398.25 41100 Matt DiBenedetto,Chris Buescher,AJ Allmendinger,Kasey Kahne,Erik Jones,Martin Truex Jr
    2019-01 410.25 46300 Ross Chastain,Michael McDowell,Kyle Larson,Erik Jones,Kyle Busch,Denny Hamlin
    2019-18 375.25 33100 JJ Yeley,Justin Haley,Corey LaJoie,Matt Tifft,Ty Dillon,Matt DiBenedetto
    2019-18 375.25 31700 JJ Yeley,Justin Haley,Landon Cassill,Corey LaJoie,Matt Tifft,Ty Dillon

    —-

    All Daytona Optimal Lineups – FanDuel

    Race FPts Salary $ Lineup
    ————- ———- —————- —————————————————————————————
    2018-18 333.90 39900 Chris Buescher,Kasey Kahne,AJ Allmendinger,Erik Jones,Martin Truex Jr
    2018-18 333.90 39400 Matt DiBenedetto,Kasey Kahne,AJ Allmendinger,Erik Jones,Martin Truex Jr
    2019-01 357.40 40500 Ross Chastain,Michael McDowell,Erik Jones,Kyle Busch,Denny Hamlin
    2019-18 305.10 29300 Justin Haley,Corey LaJoie,Ty Dillon,William Byron,Jimmie Johnson
  • Stangs13

    Anyone know how regularly the winner has been in the optimal lineup or winning lineup for the Daytona races?

  • gje627

    EDIT: Sorry, replying to Stangs13

    Draftkings: 8 of 10 lineups, Daytona race winner in optimal lineup
    FanDuel: 4 of 4 lineups, Daytona race winner in optimal lineup

    Note: These numbers includes ties …. See, above. There have been 9 Daytona DK races and 3 FD Daytona races.

    ——

    Draftkings

    2016-01 Denny Hamlin
    2016-17 Brad Keselowski
    2017-17 Ricky Stenhouse
    2018-01 Austin Dillon
    2018-18 Erik Jones
    2019-01 Denny Hamlin
    2019-18 *Justin Haley – in both optimal lineups

    FanDuel

    2018-18 *Erik Jones – in both optimal lineups
    2019-01 Denny Hamlin
    2019-18 Justin Haley

  • Choco26

    Would love a link to the sheets, thank you!

  • gje627

    @Choco26 said...

    Would love a link to the sheets, thank you!

    Sure, no problem.

    Including the PMs, my list is getting pretty large. If anyone can suggest a better way to distribute … I’m all ears … or I guess in this case … all eyes. :)

  • gje627

    @starstx said...

    That would be great and thanks. I defintely started off similar to other sports where in general you want to use most of the cap … but each race is a lot different and how qualifying turns out … had to get comfortable with ignoring the cap and just building my lineups. But still wondered how much is too much lol.

    Thanks a ton

    Since we’re already quite comfortable playing lineups almost anywhere below the salary cap for Daytona, this may need to be a next week explanation/illustration … if that’s okay. Just worried about having enough time to explain properly before Sunday.

    I will say, the logic behind the calculations is pretty simple …. The result is primarily a function of total driver salary, individual driver salary, total possible fantasy points available, and total driver fantasy point potential. Interestingly, unlike most, if not all, other DFS sports, in DFS NASCAR you can calculate the race points to almost the exact number. The only real variance results from fast laps, as they are not counted during caution laps (but laps led are), and the total number of race laps … i.e, laps may vary based on whether a race is rain-shortened or requires overtime, being two low/high examples.

  • stevengoo

    @gje627 said...

    Sure, no problem.

    Including the PMs, my list is getting pretty large. If anyone can suggest a better way to distribute … I’m all ears … or I guess in this case … all eyes. :)

    instead of dming us the link individually, we can all provide our email addresses and you can invite us to the google sheet?

  • Zieg30

    • 714

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @gje627 said...

    Okay, for those who were waiting for some NASCAR/Daytona 500 numbers … I PM’d each of you a Google Drive link to an Excel file. If for some reason, you did not receive and still want the file, please reply below.

    gje – I’m interested in those Daytona 500 numbers. Would appreciate the link. Thanks!

  • gje627

    @stevengoo said...

    instead of dming us the link individually, we can all provide our email addresses and you can invite us to the google sheet?

    Thanks !!!

    Great idea.

    Just so everyone knows, if I get your email address, I will put you in my universal group list ….

    So beware if anyone wants to give me their email address, I love (love, love) sending selfies of myself … with my cats, my dogs, sitting on my favorite chair, brushing my teeth, shopping for vegetables, pretending I’m holding-up The Leaning Tower of Pisa (click blue to see my helpers) ….

    My favorite? … Flexing in the bathroom mirror in my tighty-whities … (just kidding, I’m more into the leopard skin patterns … GRRR !!!)

    I have another idea, though ….

    Maybe someone could volunteer and collect usernames of everyone here who wants the file.

    That way, I could simply send to one person, and they can distribute.

    Can I get a volunteer? … Please? :)

  • gje627

    Great news, last post of the day (probably)

    Updated Daytona 500 status, after Practice 3

    — Start positions included
    — Car make included for those planning to stack manufacturers

    _______________________________

    3,562,761 — Draftkings number of possible lineups at or below $50K salary cap
    633,980 — FanDuel number of possible lineups at or below $50K salary cap

    To the Rear on Start

    — Ryan Blaney – Backup Car
    — Corey LaJoie – Backup Car
    — Ty Dillon – Gear Change

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    Daytona 500 – Current Race Status

    Name Make Start DK Salary FD Salary Start Rear
    —————————— —————— ————— —————— —————— ———————-
    Ricky Stenhouse Chevrolet 1 8800 8200 na
    Alex Bowman Chevrolet 2 8900 10300 na
    Joey Logano Ford 3 10500 14000 na
    William Byron Chevrolet 4 8300 8500 na
    Aric Almirola Ford 5 8500 8700 na
    Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet 6 8200 8500 na
    Ryan Newman Ford 7 7600 7000 na
    Kyle Larson Chevrolet 8 8000 8000 na
    Brad Keselowski Ford 9 10200 13500 na
    Kevin Harvick Ford 10 9700 12500 na
    Bubba Wallace Chevrolet 11 6300 6000 na
    Cole Custer Ford 12 6600 6500 na
    Austin Dillon Chevrolet 13 7400 7500 na
    Erik Jones Toyota 14 7900 9500 na
    Martin Truex Toyota 15 9500 11000 na
    Matt DiBenedetto Ford 16 7800 8300 na
    Christopher Bell Toyota 17 6700 6800 na
    Kurt Busch Chevrolet 18 9100 10000 na
    Chris Buescher Ford 19 7100 7300 na
    Ross Chastain Chevrolet 20 6900 6000 na
    Denny Hamlin Toyota 21 10400 13000 na
    Tyler Reddick Chevrolet 22 6400 5500 na
    John H Nemechek Ford 23 5100 4500 na
    Ty Dillon Chevrolet 24 5700 4000 Gear Change
    Chase Elliott Chevrolet 25 10000 12200 na
    Michael McDowell Ford 26 5900 5000 na
    Ryan Blaney Ford 27 9300 11000 Backup Car
    Kyle Busch Toyota 28 9800 14000 na
    Clint Bowyer Ford 29 8600 9000 na
    David Ragan Ford 30 5200 4000 na
    Ryan Preece Chevrolet 31 5300 5500 na
    Timmy Hill Ford 32 4500 2000 na
    Justin Haley Chevrolet 33 5000 4500 na
    Brennan Poole Chevrolet 34 4600 2000 na
    Quin Houff Chevrolet 35 4700 3000 na
    Corey Lajoie Ford 36 5500 4000 Backup Car
    Joey Gase Chevrolet 37 4500 2000 na
    BJ McLeod Ford 38 4800 2500 na
    Brendan Gaughan Chevrolet 39 7200 2500 na
    Reed Sorenson Chevrolet 40 4500 2000 na

    ——
    END
    ——

  • gje627

    @Zieg30 said...

    gje – I’m interested in those Daytona 500 numbers. Would appreciate the link. Thanks!

    Okay, really last post (probably)

    Yes, definitely, you can have the link.

    I do have “another” idea ….

    Unless someone else steps-up and volunteers, the next person who wants the file will be required to distribute.

    Feel bad, @stevengoo had a great idea, and my reply was mean-girls-snotty.

    Sorry about that.

    But I will say, if I have to do it … the “link-list” is officially closed (note I said “officially” … meaning even if I wanted to, there’s nothing I can do about it now because it’s “official” … sorry.

  • starstx

    @gje627 said...

    , this may need to be a next week explanation/illustration … if that’s okay.

    Agreed. All good. Lets table it for a more applicable week. I get what you are saying about total pts for each race. Very good point and something I think will help me a lot in roster construction and narrowing down the field for my plays. Plenty more to talk about this week. Qualifying results are in and time to start crunching numbers and possibilities. Appreciate it gje

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