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  • jt77316

    Daytona International Speedway –

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Duel 1: Thursday, 7:00 PM (FS1)
    — Duel 2: Thursday, 8:45 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 1: Friday, 5:05 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 12:30 PM (FS1)
    — Race: Daytona 500, Sunday, 2:30 PM (FOX)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 200 Laps, 500 miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 60; Stage 2: Lap 61 – 120; Stage 3: Lap 121 – 200
    — Expected Fuel/Pit Window – xx-xx Laps

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate.

    Daytona International Speedway –

    2.5 mile Super Speedway

    Similar Tracks: Talledega

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 07/01/2017: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
    — 02/18/2018: Austin Dillon
    — 07/07/2018: Erik Jones
    — 02/17/2019: Denny Hamlin
    — 07/07/2019: Justin Haley

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    07/01/2017: Brendan Gaughan (66.00 DK FPts) – Paul Menard (64.8 FD FPts)
    02/18/2018: Ryan Blaney (65.00 DK FPts) – Austin Dillon (70.3 FD FPts)
    07/07/2018: Erik Jones (78.75 DK FPts) – Erik Jones (73.9 FD FPts)
    02/17/2019: Kyle Busch (82.25 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (78.9 FD FPts)
    07/07/2019: Justin Haley (79.75 DK FPts) – Justin Haley (72.3 FD FPts)

    Data from Last 5 Daytona Races

    Driver Rating:

    1. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – 95.9
    2. Alex Bowman – 91.8
    3. Ryan Blaney – 90.7
    4. Kevin Harvick – 87.9
    5. Jimmie Johnson – 85.3

    Laps Led:

    1. Ryan Blaney – 141
    2. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – 97
    3. William Byron – 56
    4. Joey Logano – 54
    5. Kevin Harvick– 27

    Fastest Laps:

    1. Ty Dillon – 31
    2. Jimmie Johnson – 26
    3. Michael McDowell – 25
    4. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr – 19
    5. Clint Bowyer – 16

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather
    Jayski

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • MotownGreek

    @gje627 said...

    Ooops. When I sent everyone the “file” yesterday, I forgot to include all historical optimal Daytona DK and FD lineups.

    Since I may not update the file with more numbers until tomorrow, I’ll just make some tables quickly and post here. Tomorrow’s file will also include the optimals, as well some detail about them.

    Sorry.

    Hopefully I’m not too late, would you mind sharing your secrets with me as well? Thank you for helping out a fellow Coloradan (is that even the right term?)

    Since I’m the next person to request your hard work that means I volunteered…or was I voluntold to distribute your work, either way feels like I’m back in the military!

  • Steverino01

    As one who has been going to Nascar races for almost 40 years including a few times to Daytona, the real fantasy season doesn’t start until next week because this week is all about luck.

    Who can miss the big one? If you can figure out 6 drivers that don’t get caught up in the big one, you are golden.

  • gje627

    @MotownGreek said...

    Hopefully I’m not too late, would you mind sharing your secrets with me as well? Thank you for helping out a fellow Coloradan (is that even the right term?)

    Since I’m the next person to request your hard work that means I volunteered…or was I voluntold to distribute your work, either way feels like I’m back in the military!

    That’s great, thank you … though I would have sent you the file even if you had not been “voluntold”. :)

    Anyways, I’ll PM you a list of usernames in the morning. The list really isn’t that long. Other than the people on the list I send, I’ll let you decide if you want to share with anyone else. I’ll also let decide how to distribute.

    And yes, “Coloradan” is correct … but so is “Coloradoan”. :)

    Back to the file?

    Thanks !!!

  • MotownGreek

    @gje627 said...

    Anyways, I’ll PM you a list of usernames in the morning. The list really isn’t that long. Other than the people on the list I send, I’ll let you decide if you want to share with anyone else. I’ll also let decide how to distribute.

    If you’re good with anyone on here getting your hard work I think it could be a forum effort distributing it. Rather than wait for you to log on and check to see who’s asking for it, anyone of us who have the link can send out a PM. That way you can focus on compiling all the data and the rest of us can share with the world! The fact you’re willing to share all this is amazing btw…thanks for that!

  • tristanwolf

    anyone playing xfinity today? i’m guessing similar strategy guys in the back mostly?

  • gje627

    @MotownGreek said...

    If you’re good with anyone on here getting your hard work I think it could be a forum effort distributing it. Rather than wait for you to log on and check to see who’s asking for it, anyone of us who have the link can send out a PM. That way you can focus on compiling all the data and the rest of us can share with the world! The fact you’re willing to share all this is amazing btw…thanks for that!

    My preference would be that I send it to one person. This person would then download it to their own file sharing service (I believe RG staff prefers Google Drive, as I linked once to my Dropbox and they requested I change).

    From there, since the link being shared is not to my account, but the person who distributes … this person can share in any manner they choose … public or private, I really don’t care, as it is no longer “my” file. Again, I just don’t want my linked account made public.

    Regarding the file itself, there will likely be two files. The second file will be either a Word file or a PDF, as it will be necessary to explain what I have done in the Excel file. I’m thinking a Word file because that will enable the downloader to edit with their own notes, as he/she sees fit, for their own personal use.

    My one rule (I guess request, since its unenforceable) is that if you edit numbers (not sure why you would, but whatever) and then distribute, please tell the recipient the numbers are yours NOT mine. If you don’t change anything and then share, there is no need to cite me or otherwise include attribution.

    I guess what I’m saying is simply, just don’t make public links to my account or make changes to my work and then communicate to others that the work is mine.

    Sorry to be so nit-picky.

    Also, for the people who received the first file. I did that in a big hurry, and it was sloppy and difficult to understand. One thing I’m doing is consolidating all similar information, like correlations, etc. in the same sheet/tab. Regarding the calculations I included, these will now include projections based on those numbers. Finally, final practice is at 10:30 am MT (my time). Once that has concluded, I will be able to start finalizing everything. I imagine the Excel file will grow to at least three times its current size so the vast majority of what you see will be new. I’m guessing it will be ready sometime between 5:00 and 6:00 pm MT …. I’ll update if it is going to be later than that.

  • gje627

    Sorry, one more thing. I do projections primarily using probability simulations, for Daytona/Talladega I generally perform at least 12000 iterations because a larger sample size is needed due to race variance (for most other races, the number is around 8000 … but the actual number always varies and is deemed complete, once the numbers are statistically significant and valid).

    I believe most “projectioners” simply use weighted averages over multiple historical metrics in their projections. If I have time, and if anybody wants to do their own projections, I can make separate data worksheets for DK and FD where you can do your own projections or just play around with the weights of different variables to see the output. Again, this will be a “if I have time/if anyone wants” thing.

  • siddom

    is having more than $3.5k a ok for the Daytona or leaving plenty of money on the table?

  • jt77316

    @siddom said...

    is having more than $3.5k a ok for the Daytona or leaving plenty of money on the table?

    Definitely fine to leave that much and more on the table.

  • siddom

    @jt77316 said...

    Definitely fine to leave that much and more on the table.

    ty!

  • tristanwolf

    let the carnage begin. good luck everyone.

  • stevengoo

    @gje627 said...

    Okay, really last post (probably)

    Yes, definitely, you can have the link.

    I do have “another” idea ….

    Unless someone else steps-up and volunteers, the next person who wants the file will be required to distribute.

    Feel bad, @stevengoo had a great idea, and my reply was mean-girls-snotty.

    Sorry about that.

    But I will say, if I have to do it … the “link-list” is officially closed (note I said “officially” … meaning even if I wanted to, there’s nothing I can do about it now because it’s “official” … sorry.

    Didn’t think it was mean girl snotty gje. You doing a great thing sharing. I can’t wait to see it when done!

  • tristanwolf

    clements 44% and a hill 39% the first two to wreck lol. well i think clemenst is back on track maybe he can get some positional points.

  • gje627

    @stevengoo said...

    Didn’t think it was mean girl snotty gje. You doing a great thing sharing. I can’t wait to see it when done!

    Thanks !!! :)

    Always forget to reply to a quote … Thus, my last “Thanks” stood-alone and made no sense.

    Hopefully, the mod will delete my “delete”.

  • MotownGreek

    For everyone who requested files from gje how would you feel about a discord group? This could be an easy spot to share the file around as well as chat about strategy in real time. If this is something people would be interested in reply here and I’ll get a room started as well as getting the file shared in it (once I get the file myself :) )

  • Choco26

    Happy to share the sheet on google drive if someone sends me the link!

  • gje627

    @MotownGreek said...

    For everyone who requested files from gje how would you feel about a discord group? This could be an easy spot to share the file around as well as chat about strategy in real time. If this is something people would be interested in reply here and I’ll get a room started as well as getting the file shared in it (once I get the file myself :) )

    Got your PM … replied … I love it !!!

  • gje627

    @Choco26 said...

    Happy to share the sheet on google drive if someone sends me the link!

    Thanks @Choco26 !!!

    The reason I hesitate to share my own, is that I had an old Google Account, never really used, but only wanted it for the storage on Google Drive.

    Anyways, I shared some files “public” and the account eventually got hacked.

    Doubt that it was because of the Google Drive links … I expect they hacked my gmail account as a whole, and then simply went to my Google Drive … but I never figured it for sure.

    Hence the reason I’m hesitant to use my own account.

  • gje627

    @MotownGreek said...

    (once I get the file myself :) )

    PM’d you too ….

    See one of my posts.

    5:00 to 6:00 PM MT.

    Final practice did not finish until around 11:00 AM MT this morning … had to wait until that concluded.

  • stevengoo

    @Choco26 said...

    Question about Ryan Blaney & Cory Lajoie – they got in a wreck and are starting at the back, but listed at 27th and 36th place on DK. I assume DK scoring will count them in their original spots, even though they start at the back?

    Yes. They are scored from original spot

  • Zieg30

    • 630

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @Choco26 said...

    Question about Ryan Blaney & Cory Lajoie – they got in a wreck and are starting at the back, but listed at 27th and 36th place on DK. I assume DK scoring will count them in their original spots, even though they start at the back?

    Yup, that’s right, but I gather that in a race like the one we expect this one to be, that actually may be to their benefit and they shouldn’t be written off.

  • BIF

    I have 38 tickets for the $10 on DK that I won during the last few weeks of the NFL season. Taking a shotgun blast approach mostly and trying to leave $1K to $5K on the table but was wondering:

    1. Who will be your highest owned driver ?
    2. What percentage will you own them at ?

  • Zieg30

    • 630

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    @BIF said...

    I have 38 tickets for the $10 on DK that I won during the last few weeks of the NFL season. Taking a shotgun blast approach mostly and trying to leave $1K to $5K on the table but was wondering:

    1. Who will be your highest owned driver ?
    2. What percentage will you own them at ?

    I accrued 10 tickets to the $10 from .10 cent satties in the NHL, so take this with a grain of salt.

    My highest owner drivers are likely going to be Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Ty Dillon, mostly due to their starting positions and upside. Then will have a decent amount of Hamlin, DiBenedetto, Kyle Busch, Harvick, and Gaughan. Not sure yet about actual %s.

  • BIF

    @Zieg30 said...

    I accrued 10 tickets to the $10 from .10 cent satties in the NHL, so take this with a grain of salt.

    My highest owner drivers are likely going to be Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, and Ty Dillon, mostly due to their starting positions and upside. Then will have a decent amount of Hamlin, DiBenedetto, Kyle Busch, Harvick, and Gaughan. Not sure yet about actual %s.

    Thanks – my first look had a lot of those as well but am now tinkering off some as they’ll likely be the easy chalk landing spots.

  • cmoltisanti

    Late to the party but I am interested in the data sets gje.

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