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  • gje627

    Indianapolis Motor Speedway – “The Brickyard”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Saturday, 10:30 AM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 1:30 PM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Saturday, 6:15 PM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Technical Inspection: Sunday, 7:00 Saturday, 2:00 PM (impound race)
    — Race: Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, Monday, 1:00 2:00 PM Postponed to Monday due to rain (NBCSN)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 160 Laps, 400 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 50; Stage 2: Lap 51 – 100; Stage 3: Lap 101 – 160
    — Expected Fuel Window – 37-41 Laps.

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate as of 9/4/2018.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018 (13 Races)

    — 2.5 mile oval; 9-degree banking in all 4 turns (60 feet wide); 0-degree banking frontstretch/backstretch (both 3,300 feet long, 50 feet wide); in addition to cornering turns connected by “short chutes” of 660 feet long
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 1.711 seconds; Low – 0.332 seconds (2008); High – 4.758 seconds (2012); Finishes under caution 2006, 2017
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 21 of 23 Tracks (6.64 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles); sidenote: This is not a typo. Interestingly last week Darlington was ranked 21 but now including the 9/2/2018 race this past weekend Darlington is 20 and not 21.
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 21 of 23 Tracks (1.91 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 20 of 23 Tracks (2.01 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 19 of 23 Tracks (0.94 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 3 of 23 Tracks (62.03% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 17 of 23 Tracks (7.41% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 8 of 23 Tracks (7.96% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 11 of 23 Tracks (15.37% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes, Lead Changes, and Cautions standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Darlington Raceway, 9/2/2018).

    Data and Analytics Links

    TBD

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Martinsville Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway, Pocono Raceway, Richmond International Raceway

    Note: Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a unique track. Under some categorizations it is a Superspeedway (tracks 2.5 miles or longer) but it doesn’t race like Daytona or Talladega, for example. This may change somewhat in 2019 if NASCAR adopts rule changes requiring restrictor plates at the Brickyard.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 7/29/2012: Jimmie Johnson
    — 7/28/2013: Ryan Newman
    — 7/27/2014: Jeff Gordon
    — 7/26/2015: Kyle Busch
    — 7/24/2016: Kyle Busch
    — 7/23/2017: Kasey Kahne

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    7/29/2012: Jimmie Johnson (99.75 DK Fpts) – Jimmie Johnson (71.4FD FPts)
    7/28/2013: Jimmie Johnson (74.75 DK Fpts) – Ryan Newman (63.5FD FPts)
    7/27/2014: Jeff Gordon (83 DK Fpts) – Denny Hamlin (67.8FD FPts)
    7/26/2015: Kyle Busch (76.75 DK Fpts) – Kyle Busch (65.3FD FPts)
    7/24/2016: Kyle Busch (107.25 DK Fpts) – Kyle Busch (74.9FD FPts)
    7/23/2017: Kasey Kahne (67.5 DK Fpts) – Kasey Kahne (69.9FD FPts)

    Note: For analytical purposes, the 2017 race should largely be disregarded as it ended under caution and was overall a non-typical Brickyard race.

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • gje627

    Important Note: Regarding the header this week, I have left a placeholder spot for data links that is now TBD. This is where I will be linking to any data, analytics, or other numerical analysis that I perform this week.

    Importantly, if anyone else here does any independent analysis please let me know and I can link to your file(s) the thread header as well.

    Additionally, please see my note above on the 2017 Indy race; as it was unusual.

    Oh, one more thing, please also note above my note on technical inspection this week. The race is an impound race and tech will occur on Sunday morning before the race. Thus, no pre-qualifying tech this week.

    Oops. One more.

    Sorry moderators, I screwed-up the title to this thread and changed it. I apologize because I know this is generally faux pas and frowned-upon. (:

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Wow! Furniture Row shutting it down at end of the year. Let the silly season and bidding on MTJ officially start now as the rumors that he might be leaving can cease with this decision by Barney Visser.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Wow! Furniture Row shutting it down at end of the year. Let the silly season and bidding on MTJ officially start now as the rumors that he might be leaving can cease with this decision by Barney Visser.

    Since Furniture Row Racing is the only team located outside of North Carolina (headquarters in Denver) and I live in Colorado this is particularly sad.

    Oh well.

    It will be interesting how this all shuffles out with Truex, Jr., Suarez, and Kurt Busch; and whether any other drivers/teams enter the fray (e.g. could this affect Christopher Bell next year?).

    You got to assume that Truex, Jr. will have a ride next year, but I really wonder if Suarez or Kurt will be the odd man out and without a full-time ride next year.

    Lots of speculation on what “could” happen right now….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Since Furniture Row Racing is the only team located outside of North Carolina (headquarters in Denver) and I live in Colorado this is particularly sad.

    Oh well.

    It will be interesting how this all shuffles out with Truex, Jr., Suarez, and Kurt Busch; and whether any other drivers/teams enter the fray (e.g. could this affect Christopher Bell next year?).

    You got to assume that Truex, Jr. will have a ride next year, but I really wonder if Suarez or Kurt will be the odd man out and without a full-time ride next year.

    Lots of speculation on what “could” happen right now….

    Ku Busch was quoted this weekend as saying he had two offers on the table and was mulling them over. I assume one is to stay with Stewart Haas.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Ku Busch was quoted this weekend as saying he had two offers on the table and was mulling them over. I assume one is to stay with Stewart Haas.

    Thanks. Didn’t hear that one.

    Do you think given the opportunity to sign Truex, Jr., Stewart-Haas would really make an offer to Kurt Busch?

    I know if I started/ran the gje627 race team, I would say Sayonara Kurt !!!

    Another interesting factor here of course is Jimmie Johnson. Losing his sponsorship with Lowe’s and his abysmal performance this year (pretty much the worst of all Hendrick’s drivers, even though as a group…. — Johnson, Elliott, Byron, Bowman — they haven’t exactly been spectacular, but IMO Johnson has been the worst AND he’s on the downside while the other guys are young-up-and-comers.

    As big of news as Furniture Row is, it’s really not surprising given NASCAR economics and the fact that Furniture Row is so far away ANY race track on the circuit…..

    To me, it would be even more shocking if Johnson was forced-out of Hendrick’s given his current lack of “talent” and the reality that he is now north of 40 years-old…. Yes, I know he and “Bad Chad” recently signed a contract extension (through 2020, I think), but Johnson could always be bought-out.

    Again, this is all me speculating and I have no factual basis for what I say…..

    EDIT: Totally meaningless table below, but given my comments about Jimmie Johnson I was interested….

    2018 Hendrick Motorsports – Driver Comparison, Selected Metrics

    Driver Avg Fin Avg Driver Rating Avg Run Pos Avg Fast Laps Avg Top 15 Laps Avg Laps Led Avg Total DK FPts Avg Total FD FPts Races Fin Lead Lap Races Fin DNF
    ————- ——— ————- ——— ———- ———- ——— ———- ———- ———- ———
    Bowman 15.36 77.78 16.24 6.12 137.80 2.68 31.17 52.57 16 1
    Elliott 12.16 91.93 12.08 7.96 205.80 8.80 37.18 56.18 17 3
    Johnson 17.08 80.18 16.00 4.88 158.52 1.16 32.37 51.66 15 4
    Byron 20.08 69.09 18.08 1.32 112.00 2.12 21.15 45.00 9 5

    Note: All drivers started all 25 races to date in 2018. Chase Elliott (1 win) is the only Hendrick Motorsports driver with a win in 2018.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    From what I hear, Smoke is close to the CEO for Bass Pro Shops who happens to sponsor MTJ…just saying

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    I knew GPP would decrease due to football but wasn’t expecting it to be this bad. Ly the first week of nfl we had the Richmond night race on Saturday. Not sure what the total GPP was but winner was 50k. The next race went down to 150k. This year we start football out at 100k. Not sure the thought process as the majority of contests have filled 2-3 hrs before start minus races with rain issues.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    From what I hear, Smoke is close to the CEO for Bass Pro Shops who happens to sponsor MTJ…just saying

    Forget Truex, Jr., Kurt Busch, Suarez, Johnson….

    Bring Smoke back !!!

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I knew GPP would decrease due to football but wasn’t expecting it to be this bad. Ly the first week of nfl we had the Richmond night race on Saturday. Not sure what the total GPP was but winner was 50k. The next race went down to 150k. This year we start football out at 100k. Not sure the thought process as the majority of contests have filled 2-3 hrs before start minus races with rain issues.

    Funny, the big contest for the UFC fights the night before has a first place prize of $25,000.

    150-max, only 13,000 total entries…. This might be the only reason I even consider playing this week, and for the rest of the season…..

    If DK was going to reduce the size of the contest, they should have increased the per-entry price, to say around $15 with maybe a $40,000 top payout and then later added a second 150-max higher than $0.50 but lower than $3 for players who want to be competitive against fewer contestants in a higher max-entry tournament but who don’t want to spend a ton of cash to max enter…..

    EDIT: Looks like DK agreed with my second suggestion. I’m certain they didn’t do this because of me, though, as I doubt DK pays too much attention to me or the RG NASCAR forum….

  • gje627

    Given the crappy contests this weekend.

    Everyone here who reads this is invited to my basement in Colorado this Sunday for a real NASCAR GPP all our own.

    I’ll buy the beer, cigars, and sponsor our fish-fry…. Catfish, Crab Legs, Lobster, Scallops, Shrimp (4-ways), and Alaskan Cod…..

    I’ll make room for 6 people…..

    That should pretty much cover everyone in this forum….. (:

    JK, looks like I have a lot of NFL work to do for the weekend.

    To all who care…. Sorry, but given the NASCAR DK GPPs, and that’s all the NASCAR I play (as I’ve said before), I’m not going to put a lot of time/effort into NASCAR this week.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 456

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #71

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    I’m going to throw out my 2 cent, I said this on a video in my package a few weeks ago.

    Kurt to the 1
    Truex to the 41
    McMurray to the 95

  • gje627

    @stevietpfl said...

    I’m going to throw out my 2 cent, I said this on a video in my package a few weeks ago.

    Kurt to the 1
    Truex to the 41
    McMurray to the 95

    Well….

    If your opinion is only worth 2-cents….

    I’d hate to know how much my opinion is worth…..

    Do I owe everyone money here?

    Given Bowyer’s comments about Derrike Cope on Sunday I was really hoping he would go to Stewart-Haas. Not really sure what Bowyer was so upset about, Cope’s pretty old and it was a night race, made even later by the lightening….

    Certainly he can’t be expected to stay awake after 8:00 pm?

  • grahambo

    MTJ and Cole Pearn to Joe Gibbs Racing and Suarez is out per Motorsport.com. Bass Pro Shops will follow as well.

  • gje627

    FYI: Yesterday, in two places I mentioned that the 2017 Cup Indy race shouldn’t be used this week as a reliable predictor of how this Sunday’s will play out, but I didn’t give a reason. Quite simply, last year’s race was a wreck-fest, where wrecks took out almost all of the big name drivers… Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Blaney (additionally Chase Elliott finished DNF – Mechanical). Rather than discuss at length, please see the tables below as I believe they illustrate the magnitude of the carnage in last year’s Indy race.

    Note: Please consider tables 3, 4, and 5 as a single table. Given the column widths allowed in the forums I had to separate this single table into 3 tables. Similarly, I apologize for the track names in these tables; as again due to column width limitations each name had to be abbreviated.

    With that said, regarding these 3 tables, I think you get the point…. To demonstrate the magnitude of the carnage in the 2017 Indy race, please note it ranks 3rd of 493 races from 2005 to 9/2/2018 in terms of both highest percentage of drivers finishing the race DNF – Crash and highest percentage of drivers finishing DNF – Any.

    While I believe the tables are self-explanatory, please advise with questions.

    Table 1: 2005 to 9/2/2018, Indianapolis Motor Speedway – DNF and Lead Lap Finish Results (13 Total Races)

    Year-Race Number Drivers in Field Sum of Drivers – Running Sum of Drivers – DNF Crash Sum of Drivers – DNF Mech Sum of Drivers – DNF Any Sum of Drivers Finish Lead Lap
    —————- ————— ——————- ——————- ——————- ——————- ——————
    2005-21 43 37 5 1 6 31
    2006-21 43 38 3 2 5 35
    2007-20 43 34 6 3 9 21
    2008-20 43 41 1 1 2 36
    2009-20 43 38 0 5 5 24
    2010-20 43 33 2 8 10 25
    2011-20 43 34 1 8 9 31
    2012-20 43 34 2 7 9 28
    2013-20 43 43 0 0 0 23
    2014-20 43 41 1 1 2 26
    2015-20 43 41 1 1 2 28
    2016-20 40 33 5 2 7 19
    2017-20 40 21 17 2 19 16

    Table 2: 2017, Indianapolis Motor Speedway – DNF, Lead Lap Finish, & DK/FD FPts by Driver

    Driver DNF Crash DNF Mech DNF Any Finish Lead Lap Total DK FPts Total FD FPts
    ———————————— ——— ———- ———— ———- ——— ———
    A.J. Allmendinger 0 0 0 1 63 62.2
    Aric Almirola 0 0 0 1 47 52.7
    Austin Dillon 1 0 1 0 23.5 35.7
    B.J. McLeod 0 0 0 0 20 26.5
    Brad Keselowski 0 0 0 1 56.75 63.5
    Chase Elliott 0 1 1 0 -18 -5.2
    Chris Buescher 0 0 0 1 52 57.2
    Clint Bowyer 1 0 1 0 0.5 18.3
    Cole Whitt 0 0 0 1 54 56.7
    Corey LaJoie 1 0 1 0 -4 -2.1
    Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 1 0 1 0 -15 1.1
    Danica Patrick 0 0 0 1 45 52.7
    Daniel Suarez 0 0 0 1 45.5 54.7
    David Ragan 1 0 1 0 -2 4.6
    Denny Hamlin 0 0 0 0 15.5 34.6
    Erik Jones 1 0 1 0 -3.5 16.3
    Gray Gaulding 1 0 1 0 31 38.7
    J.J. Yeley 1 0 1 0 3 9
    Jamie McMurray 0 0 0 1 18 36.7
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 0 0 0 28 36.2
    Jimmie Johnson 1 0 1 0 -6 18.3
    Joey Gase 1 0 1 0 32 38.7
    Joey Logano 0 0 0 1 43 55.2
    Kasey Kahne 0 0 0 1 67.5 69.9
    Kevin Harvick 0 0 0 1 36.5 49.7
    Kurt Busch 1 0 1 0 -2 18.4
    Kyle Busch 1 0 1 0 18.75 10.2
    Kyle Larson 1 0 1 0 13.5 26.9
    Landon Cassill 0 1 1 0 31 39.7
    Martin Truex, Jr. 1 0 1 0 -6 6.3
    Matt DiBenedetto 0 0 0 1 55 59.2
    Matt Kenseth 0 0 0 1 61.75 59.3
    Michael McDowell 0 0 0 0 32 42.6
    Paul Menard 0 0 0 1 29 42.2
    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 1 0 1 0 -5 9.6
    Ryan Blaney 1 0 1 0 13 28.3
    Ryan Newman 0 0 0 1 46.5 57.2
    Timmy Hill 0 0 0 1 53 55.2
    Trevor Bayne 1 0 1 0 26 38.2
    Ty Dillon 0 0 0 0 34 43

    Table 3: 2005 to 9/2/2018, Top 10 Races Highest % Drivers Finishing DNF – Data (493 Total Races)

    Year Year-Race Track Number Drivers in Field Sum of DNF Crash Sum of DNF Mech Sum of DNF Any Sum of Finish Lead Lap
    ———- ————— ———————- —————- ————- ————— ———— —————-
    2017 2017-31 Talladega 40 24 2 26 13
    2018 2018-18 Daytona 40 20 0 20 13
    2017 2017-20 Indianapolis 40 17 2 19 16
    2012 2012-10 Talladega 43 10 9 19 19
    2010 2010-18 Daytona 43 15 3 18 17
    2017 2017-17 Daytona 40 12 4 16 21
    2007 2007-30 Talladega 43 13 4 17 21
    2012 2012-13 Dover 43 9 8 17 19
    2012 2012-30 Talladega 43 11 6 17 21
    2017 2017-01 Daytona 40 15 0 15 15
    2018 2018-01 Daytona 40 14 1 15 10

    Table 4: 2005 to 9/2/2018, Top 10 Races Highest % Drivers Finishing DNF – Percentages (493 Total Races)

    Year Year-Race Track % of Drivers DNF Crash % of Drivers DNF Mech % of Drivers DNF Any % of Drivers Finish Lead Lap
    ———- ————— ———————- —————- —————- —————- —————-
    2017 2017-31 Talladega 60.00% 5.00% 65.00% 32.50%
    2018 2018-18 Daytona 50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 32.50%
    2017 2017-20 Indianapolis 42.50% 5.00% 47.50% 40.00%
    2012 2012-10 Talladega 23.26% 20.93% 44.19% 44.19%
    2010 2010-18 Daytona 34.88% 6.98% 41.86% 39.53%
    2017 2017-17 Daytona 30.00% 10.00% 40.00% 52.50%
    2007 2007-30 Talladega 30.23% 9.30% 39.53% 48.84%
    2012 2012-13 Dover 20.93% 18.60% 39.53% 44.19%
    2012 2012-30 Talladega 25.58% 13.95% 39.53% 48.84%
    2017 2017-01 Daytona 37.50% 0.00% 37.50% 37.50%
    2018 2018-01 Daytona 35.00% 2.50% 37.50% 25.00%

    Table 5: 2005 to 9/2/2018, Top 10 Races Highest % Drivers Finishing DNF – Ranks (493 Total Races)

    Year Year-Race Track Rank High % Drivers DNF Crash Rank High % Drivers DNF Mech Rank High % Drivers Finish DNF Any Rank Low % Drivers Finish Lead Lap
    ———- ————— ———————- —————- —————- —————- —————-
    2017 2017-31 Talladega 1 285 1 60
    2018 2018-18 Daytona 2 439 2 60
    2017 2017-20 Indianapolis 3 285 3 146
    2012 2012-10 Talladega 24 12 4 185
    2010 2010-18 Daytona 6 221 5 126
    2017 2017-17 Daytona 10 146 6 299
    2007 2007-30 Talladega 9 149 7 250
    2012 2012-13 Dover 32 32 7 185
    2012 2012-30 Talladega 16 83 7 250
    2017 2017-01 Daytona 4 439 10 119
    2018 2018-01 Daytona 5 367 10 20

  • gje627

    Last week two people requested I post finishing position projections again this week. Below please find this information. These projections will be updated again after practice and qualifying. Also note, the table below includes all drivers entered in this weekend’s cup race (41). Since the field is limited to 40 drivers, the table will be updated after qualifying.

    Legend

    Driver – Self-explanatory.

    Proj Fin Pos – Projected finish position (not fantasy point ranking).

    Weighted Avg – Weighted average finish position, where weights are applied individually for each of the subsequent categories to calculate a composite average.

    YTD Avg Fin Pos – Year-to-date average finish position for all races in 2018 not including Plate and Road Course Races (20 Races).

    Type Avg Fin Pos – Track type average finish position for all races at same track type in 2017 and 2018. Tracks and data in this category include: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Martinsville Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway, Pocono Raceway, Richmond International Raceway (17 Races).

    Track Avg of Fin Pos – Average finishing position for all Darlington Raceway races in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 (4 Races). Importantly, the 2017 Indianapolis race has been weighted separately and therefore this race is not included in the calculation for this column.

    Mo Avg Fin Pos – Where “Mo” stands for “Momentum”, average finish position for 6 most recent races at tracks not including Plate and Road Course tracks. Tracks and races included are: Kentucky Speedway (7/14/2018), New Hampshire Motor Speedway (7/22/2017), Pocono Raceway (7/29/2018), Michigan International Speedway (8/12/2018), Bristol Motor Speedway (8/18/2018), Darlington Raceway (9/2/2018) (6 Races).

    Practice – Composite average of 2 highest practice sessions for current race.

    Qualify – Qualifying position.

    Note: Additional factors such as Driver Rating and consistency metrics included in Weighted Average and projections below. Due to space limitations these metrics are not displayed.

    Indianapolis Motor Speedway – Big Machine Vodka 400 (9/9/2018) Preliminary Projected Finishing Order for Drivers Entered as of 9/6/2018.

    Proj Fin Pos Driver Weighted Avg YTD Avg Fin Pos Type Avg Fin Pos Track Avg of Fin Pos Mo Avg Fin Pos Practice Qualify
    ———- ——————————- —————- ————- ————- ————- ————- —————- ————-
    1 Kyle Busch 2.97 5.50 6.24 1.33 6.17 0 0
    2 Kevin Harvick 3.48 6.65 7.47 5.67 4.17 0 0
    3 Martin Truex, Jr. 6.01 10.30 9.12 12.33 12.50 0 0
    4 Brad Keselowski 7.46 11.85 10.12 13.00 15.33 0 0
    5 Joey Logano 7.78 9.25 14.59 4.67 10.17 0 0
    6 Kyle Larson 7.84 10.60 15.35 7.00 11.00 0 0
    7 Denny Hamlin 8.47 11.70 12.53 4.00 11.83 0 0
    8 Kurt Busch 8.52 10.70 16.24 17.33 6.00 0 0
    9 Chase Elliott 9.30 11.45 11.35 16.50 7.00 0 0
    10 Clint Bowyer 9.51 11.60 13.24 14.33 18.67 0 0
    11 Erik Jones 10.12 12.15 15.82 0.00 9.00 0 0
    12 Ryan Blaney 10.91 13.35 16.18 24.00 8.00 0 0
    13 Jimmie Johnson 12.62 15.65 16.82 10.67 19.50 0 0
    14 Daniel Suarez 13.27 17.40 12.82 0.00 16.17 0 0
    15 Aric Almirola 13.70 13.75 16.38 28.00 14.67 0 0
    16 Ryan Newman 14.54 19.95 13.53 17.67 13.50 0 0
    17 Matt Kenseth 14.83 22.00 13.86 4.33 19.25 0 0
    18 William Byron 15.37 20.15 13.67 0.00 22.33 0 0
    19 Austin Dillon 15.69 18.45 16.94 14.67 14.83 0 0
    20 Jamie McMurray 15.70 18.45 20.18 18.33 19.00 0 0
    21 Alex Bowman 16.39 16.30 13.17 41.50 17.17 0 0
    22 Paul Menard 17.15 18.10 20.41 19.33 19.67 0 0
    23 Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 18.04 19.35 17.35 23.67 22.00 0 0
    24 Kasey Kahne 19.47 23.75 22.06 16.00 23.17 0 0
    25 Chris Buescher 20.23 23.85 23.47 14.00 22.00 0 0
    26 A.J. Allmendinger 21.62 23.20 22.29 26.33 27.17 0 0
    27 Ty Dillon 22.16 25.05 21.24 0.00 26.00 0 0
    28 David Ragan 22.69 23.55 26.65 31.00 21.33 0 0
    29 Michael McDowell 23.30 24.90 23.06 26.67 24.67 0 0
    30 Bubba Wallace 24.08 24.95 29.71 0.00 28.50 0 0
    31 Ross Chastain 26.28 28.40 28.67 0.00 29.50 0 0
    32 Matt DiBenedetto 26.44 28.00 28.94 36.00 29.33 0 0
    33 Landon Cassill 27.10 30.25 28.88 25.33 31.33 0 0
    34 Corey LaJoie 28.28 31.46 31.79 0.00 33.00 0 0
    35 Reed Sorenson 29.68 32.33 31.90 35.50 32.50 0 0
    36 J.J. Yeley 29.71 32.86 32.00 39.00 32.25 0 0
    37 Gray Gaulding 30.28 32.19 32.29 0.00 36.50 0 0
    38 Jeffrey Earnhardt 31.03 33.50 34.00 0.00 34.00 0 0
    39 David Starr 31.84 38.00 28.00 0.00 38.00 0 0
    40 Timmy Hill 31.93 34.18 30.33 41.00 34.40 0 0
    41 B.J. McLeod 32.02 34.33 35.75 35.75 33.80 0 0

    EDIT: Averages in track column above corrected for some drivers. This was just an error in the display of data and does not change preliminary projections.

  • grahambo

    Thank you gje!

  • gje627

    Gray Gaulding has withdrawn. Header has been updated to reflect 40 drivers in field. All drivers will race Sunday.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Gray Gaulding has withdrawn. Header has been updated to reflect 40 drivers in field. All drivers will race Sunday.

    From a DK standpoint it’s a 39 driver field with Regan Smith replacing Kahne and Smith not in the player pool.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    We are still 24+ hrs away from qualifying but this weekend is setting up to be quite interesting. The outlook is quite gloomy that qualifying will actually happen due to the anticipated rain tomorrow. We may see the rare race when there is no practice and no qualifying and the first time we see the cars is during the race. Btw, not sure if this has happened before. On top of that if qualifying is cancelled owner points sets the field starting positions but cars still have to pass inspection at some point. If no qualifying and assuming inspection is still after qualifying, if you fail and go to the rear is that were you will be scored from. I wonder because in past when you failed it was treated like you didn’t have a qualifying run but since nobody has qualifying runs in the rainout scenario I wonder how this will be treated. Should be fun….

  • gje627

    I believe I am correct here….

    BUT qualifying sets the field….

    Regardless of whether it’s by qualifying speed or owner points….

    Once the field is set, that is therefore considered qualifying and official starting positions are assigned…..

    Thus, any inspection that occurs after qualifying (after the field is set and starting positions assigned) would result in a driver moving to the back BUT being scored from their qualifying position; regardless of whether a driver qualified by speed or by owner points.

    In other words, any driver moving to the back should be scored from a higher (better) starting position and therefore start a race with negative place differential points.

    Hope this makes sense.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    I believe I am correct here….

    BUT qualifying sets the field….

    Regardless of whether it’s by qualifying speed or owner points….

    Once the field is set, that is therefore considered qualifying and official starting positions are assigned…..

    Thus, any inspection that occurs after qualifying (after the field is set and starting positions assigned) would result in a driver moving to the back BUT being scored from their qualifying position; regardless of whether a driver qualified by speed or by owner points.

    In other words, any driver moving to the back should be scored from a higher (better) starting position and therefore start a race with negative place differential points.

    Hope this makes sense.

    Hmmm… pretty sure it has worked this way so far this year…inspection after qualifying scenario..

    MTJ qualifies 5th, his car fails inspection, his time is not allowed (officially scored as a 0 for time) and he starts in the rear and is scored from that position..

    MTJ qualifies 5th, he changes engine, he goes to rear and is scored from 5th position.

    What I am interested in this weekend is if q is rained out and starting positions determined by owner points, if a driver fails inspection, which is suppose to be Sunday morning after Saturday evening q, since nobody has any official times, all at 0 technically, if they fail and go to back will they be scored from original position or actually starting positions.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Hmmm… pretty sure it has worked this way so far this year…inspection after qualifying scenario..

    MTJ qualifies 5th, his car fails inspection, his time is not allowed (officially scored as a 0 for time) and he starts in the rear and is scored from that position..

    MTJ qualifies 5th, he changes engine, he goes to rear and is scored from 5th position.

    What I am interested in this weekend is if q is rained out and starting positions determined by owner points, if a driver fails inspection, which is suppose to be Sunday morning after Saturday evening q, since nobody has any official times, all at 0 technically, if they fail and go to back will they be scored from original position or actually starting positions.

    If there is no on-track qualifying, there is no time to disallow.

    Conversely, they really can’t impound cars after owner points are set….. If so, they would have impounded cars immediately after the Darlington race last week, even though NASCAR had no idea which cars teams were bringing this weekend….

    In this same regard, if there is no on-track qualifying, it’s doubtful that teams will be pushing their cars to the limits of the rules to get even just a little more speed, since speed doesn’t matter when the field is set by owner points; so given multiple chances to pass tech I doubt many (if any) cars will fail.

    Finally, if all pre-race track activities are cancelled, I seriously doubt technical inspection will be the same this weekend and NASCAR would give teams a little more latitude to get their cars correct.

    After all, multiple times each year NASCAR changes/adjusts rules when unique/unusual/safety/etc. considerations arise week-to-week.

    I guess what I’m saying, I still really wouldn’t worry that much about this….

    ….

    Regarding your last question, though, I’m still pretty certain I’m right regarding the rules… but again, NASCAR can change their rules on a whim.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    If there is no on-track qualifying, there is no time to disallow.

    Conversely, they really can’t impound cars after owner points are set….. If so, they would have impounded cars immediately after the Darlington race last week, even though NASCAR had no idea which cars teams were bringing this weekend….

    In this same regard, if there is no on-track qualifying, it’s doubtful that teams will be pushing their cars to the limits of the rules to get even just a little more speed, since speed doesn’t matter when the field is set by owner points; so given multiple chances to pass tech I doubt many (if any) cars will fail.

    Finally, if all pre-race track activities are cancelled, I seriously doubt technical inspection will be the same this weekend and NASCAR would give teams a little more latitude to get their cars correct.

    After all, multiple times each year NASCAR changes/adjusts rules when unique/unusual/safety/etc. considerations arise week-to-week.

    I guess what I’m saying, I really wouldn’t worry that much about this….

    ….

    Regarding your last question, though, I’m still pretty certain I’m right regarding the rules… but again, NASCAR can change their rules on a whim.

    Good dialogue on the piece with no on track activities, that is what I am mostly interested in.

    As for the qualifying/post qualifying inspection process. Reference Watkins Glenn as Ku Busch qualified 21st and Menard 14th. Both failed inspection after qualifying. Busch started 36 and Menard 37. Both received qualifying times of 0 and both were scored from 36/37.

  • gje627

    I actually edited my last post to include this, but I’ll post here instead….

    Also, regarding your hypotheticals involving Truex. Between the two, you’re talking apples and oranges, the first involves failing inspection and the second involves passing inspection but going to the back for unapproved changes (by definition, you can’t fail inspection AND make unapproved and be sent to the back again, as you already would be at the back….)

    To say this another way, the first hypothetical involves an infraction occurring BEFORE a car is impounded, the second occurs AFTER a car is impounded; where cars are considered impounded and untouchable immediately following inspection; regardless of whether or not a car fails or passes.

    In the second hypothetical, if a car is fresh from the shop when the race starts because it hasn’t been on the track due to no practice or qualifying sessions, I’m not really sure why a team would need to change an engine or pull fenders out, etc. after inspection, as one must assume a team had all week at the shop to get this done…..

    Nevertheless, yes a fun conversation and a good “brain-tease” exercise for the day. !!! :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    I actually edited my last post to include this, but I’ll post here instead….

    Also, regarding your hypotheticals involving Truex. Between the two, you’re talking apples and oranges, the first involves failing inspection and the second involves passing inspection but going to the back for unapproved changes (by definition, you can’t fail inspection AND make unapproved and be sent to the back again, as you already would be at the back….)

    To say this another way, the first hypothetical involves an infraction occurring BEFORE a car is impounded, the second occurs AFTER a car is impounded; where cars are considered impounded and untouchable immediately following inspection; regardless of whether or not a car fails or passes.

    In the second hypothetical, if a car is fresh from the shop when the race starts because it hasn’t been on the track due to no practice or qualifying sessions, I’m not really sure why a team would need to change an engine or pull fenders out, etc. after inspection, as one must assume a team had all week at the shop to get this done…..

    Nevertheless, yes a fun conversation and a good “brain-tease” exercise for the day. !!! :)

    Sorry, you seem to be getting technical… the two scenario I posted are in reference to how people are easily confused in when a car goes to rear and is scored from rear or when a car goes to rear and scored from starting position. That was all, nothing more, nothing less. Not sure why you would bring up the scenario as to changing engines etc fresh from truck as I never mentioned anything to that. You seem to be muddying the convo by bringing in specific technical reasons.

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