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  • gje627

    Indianapolis Motor Speedway – “The Brickyard”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Saturday, 10:30 AM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 1:30 PM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Saturday, 6:15 PM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Technical Inspection: Sunday, 7:00 Saturday, 2:00 PM (impound race)
    — Race: Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, Monday, 1:00 2:00 PM Postponed to Monday due to rain (NBCSN)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 160 Laps, 400 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 50; Stage 2: Lap 51 – 100; Stage 3: Lap 101 – 160
    — Expected Fuel Window – 37-41 Laps.

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate as of 9/4/2018.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018 (13 Races)

    — 2.5 mile oval; 9-degree banking in all 4 turns (60 feet wide); 0-degree banking frontstretch/backstretch (both 3,300 feet long, 50 feet wide); in addition to cornering turns connected by “short chutes” of 660 feet long
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 1.711 seconds; Low – 0.332 seconds (2008); High – 4.758 seconds (2012); Finishes under caution 2006, 2017
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 21 of 23 Tracks (6.64 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles); sidenote: This is not a typo. Interestingly last week Darlington was ranked 21 but now including the 9/2/2018 race this past weekend Darlington is 20 and not 21.
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 21 of 23 Tracks (1.91 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 20 of 23 Tracks (2.01 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 19 of 23 Tracks (0.94 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 3 of 23 Tracks (62.03% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 17 of 23 Tracks (7.41% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 8 of 23 Tracks (7.96% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 11 of 23 Tracks (15.37% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes, Lead Changes, and Cautions standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Darlington Raceway, 9/2/2018).

    Data and Analytics Links

    TBD

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Martinsville Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway, Pocono Raceway, Richmond International Raceway

    Note: Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a unique track. Under some categorizations it is a Superspeedway (tracks 2.5 miles or longer) but it doesn’t race like Daytona or Talladega, for example. This may change somewhat in 2019 if NASCAR adopts rule changes requiring restrictor plates at the Brickyard.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 7/29/2012: Jimmie Johnson
    — 7/28/2013: Ryan Newman
    — 7/27/2014: Jeff Gordon
    — 7/26/2015: Kyle Busch
    — 7/24/2016: Kyle Busch
    — 7/23/2017: Kasey Kahne

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    7/29/2012: Jimmie Johnson (99.75 DK Fpts) – Jimmie Johnson (71.4FD FPts)
    7/28/2013: Jimmie Johnson (74.75 DK Fpts) – Ryan Newman (63.5FD FPts)
    7/27/2014: Jeff Gordon (83 DK Fpts) – Denny Hamlin (67.8FD FPts)
    7/26/2015: Kyle Busch (76.75 DK Fpts) – Kyle Busch (65.3FD FPts)
    7/24/2016: Kyle Busch (107.25 DK Fpts) – Kyle Busch (74.9FD FPts)
    7/23/2017: Kasey Kahne (67.5 DK Fpts) – Kasey Kahne (69.9FD FPts)

    Note: For analytical purposes, the 2017 race should largely be disregarded as it ended under caution and was overall a non-typical Brickyard race.

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Matt DiBenedetto has decided to leave the 32 team next year. Based on his comments it would appear he has a ride with a higher level team. Thinking perhaps the #6, possibly #95 but I would think Suarez gets that ride.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Not sure why you would bring up the scenario as to changing engines etc fresh from truck as I never mentioned anything to that.

    Okay, sorry.

    You actually brought up the scenario of an engine change, not me…..

    If they bring a car from the shop to the track (in a truck) and there’s no track-time before the race, the car is fresh from the shop.

    Your words:

    MTJ qualifies 5th, he changes engine, he goes to rear and is scored from 5th position.”

    ….

    Regardless, I really don’t care as I think this whole thing is a non-issue.

    Again, my apologies if somehow I offended you.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Okay, sorry.

    You actually brought up the scenario of an engine change, not me…..

    If they bring a car from the shop to the track (in a truck) and there’s no track-time before the race, the car is fresh from the shop.

    Your words:

    MTJ qualifies 5th, he changes engine, he goes to rear and is scored from 5th position.”

    ….

    Regardless, I really don’t care as I think this whole thing is a non-issue.

    Again, my apologies if somehow I offended you.

    Not offended but listen to yourself….in the scenario I have MTJ qualifies, this means the car is not fresh off truck but for some reason you are bringing in fresh off the truck.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Not offended but listen to yourself….in the scenario I have MTJ qualifies, this means the car is not fresh off truck but for some reason you are bringing in fresh off the truck.

    How does he qualify?

    By speed or owner’s points?

    I thought the whole premise and point of your post bringing this topic up was “what if practice is cancelled AND qualifying is cancelled?

    Again, your words in your initial post:

    “We may see the rare race when there is no practice and no qualifying and the first time we see the cars is during the race.”

    ….

    I’m lost…..

    And still don’t care….

    Guess I’m just too stupid….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    How does he qualify?

    By speed or owner’s points?

    I thought the whole premise and point of your post bringing this topic up was “what if practice is cancelled AND qualifying is cancelled?

    Again, your words in your initial post:

    “We may see the rare race when there is no practice and no qualifying and the first time we see the cars is during the race.”

    ….

    I’m lost…..

    And still don’t care….

    Guess I’m just too stupid….

    Let me see if I can help…..my original post mentioned the entire scenario of no on track activity and if a car fails inspection how would they be scored as far as starting position goes since inspection is after qualifying. You chime in saying once qualifying is done that’s the starting position were the driver is scored from. Unfortunately this is incorrect as I stated in the Watkins Glenn scenario. Anyways, I provided two examples that are often confusing to the casual player when determining starting positions. The examples had nothing to do with this particular race, just general scenarios as they were not posted in my original post. Anyways, enough for me.

  • sonic999

    • 931

      RG Overall Ranking

    Is it possible they push qualifying back to Sunday morning if the forecast starts to show clearing then? Forecast currently is 95-100% rain all day Saturday, then 60-70% rain Sunday morning/ early afternoon and abt 20% from 3pm on.

  • Toddalan2286

    @sonic999 said...

    Is it possible they push qualifying back to Sunday morning if the forecast starts to show clearing then? Forecast currently is 95-100% rain all day Saturday, then 60-70% rain Sunday morning/ early afternoon and abt 20% from 3pm on.

    I wouldn’t think so. I could see them getting a practice session rather than qualifying, especially considering there will likely still be an xfinity race to run. But I could be wrong!

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sonic999 said...

    Is it possible they push qualifying back to Sunday morning if the forecast starts to show clearing then? Forecast currently is 95-100% rain all day Saturday, then 60-70% rain Sunday morning/ early afternoon and abt 20% from 3pm on.

    I am not aware of anytime that NASCAR has moved qualifying to the next day due to rain, it’s always been cancelled and set by owner points. I am also not aware of a race when the cars did not hit the track before the actual start due to rain. This doesn’t mean either scenario hasn’t happened before but I am sure we will hear more tomorrow from NASCAR on there anticipated plans.

  • sonic999

    • 931

      RG Overall Ranking

    I forgot about the Xfinity race, they may have to run that one on Monday based on the forecast right now.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bobpockrass

    If everything goes as scheduled, Cup teams won’t have tech before qualifying, they qualify at 6:15pm Saturday, cars impounded and then tech will start 7am Sunday. Fail once, qualifying time disallowed and start at rear. Fail twice, crew member ejected. 3rd time-10 pt penalty.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    All track activity today has been cancelled! The Brickyard 400 lineup will be set by the rule book.

    Tomorrow’s green flag moved to 1 p.m.

    Xfinity Series race at 10 a.m. Monday

  • Toddalan2286

    Well let’s begin the Harvick vs Busch debate… both starting on the front row and one of the first two starting positions here have a high probability of being on the optimal lineup. Who has unloaded the best so far this year on a consistent basis? We know Busch’s pit crew has the edge regarding pit stop times. Thoughts?

  • yellowdart24

    Highly unlikely they race tomorrow with the rain. Track takes FOREVER to dry. Good rain chances through most of the early afternoon until at least 3-4pm. No lights plus… COLTS have a home game in town. Track might want a Monday race to get some more fans there. I live just North of Indy and the local weather doesn’t like the chances tomorrow unless a huge weather pattern changes.

  • Jnvrmind

    Per Bob Pockrass -Kyle Busch is on the pole for the Brickyard 400 as NASCAR has postponed all activity Saturday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. NASCAR has moved the Xfinity race to 10 a.m. Monday. The Cup race is now set for 1 p.m. Sunday for its regular-season finale

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Gje question…if the starting lineup stays as is..how does this affect your mad math? Typically you only want one driver who starts 10 or 11 or one that starts 13/14, I just randomly picked those starting positions. Does starting by owner points change how you look at your math when constructing lineups or do you stick with the historical numbers? Thanks

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    NASCAR will begin prerace tech for Cup cars at 2pm today and then impound them. They will pick pits late this afternoon.
    #nascar

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Gje question…if the starting lineup stays as is..how does this affect your mad math? Typically you only want one driver who starts 10 or 11 or one that starts 13/14, I just randomly picked those starting positions. Does starting by owner points change how you look at your math when constructing lineups or do you stick with the historical numbers? Thanks

    I’ll rely on those numbers as usual, though with one exception. As the numbers start reaching closer to the back of the field I will likely not include a “minimum” number of drivers, if applicable, for a couple reasons.

    First, without practice and qualifying theoretically all drivers are starting about where they should be expected to finish. Meaning chalk place differential plays are going to be few and far between, or altogether non-existent.

    Second, without practice, I will rely even more on speed metrics for the year in this race. Indy already is a speed race but without better practice/qualifying data I’ll be overweight on cars that have been fast this year, particularly on the flat tracks and longer, non-plate tracks.

    Third, given the lack of data this week, and in light of my second point, my simulations are going to take on more significance in how I construct lineups. This necessarily means I’ll take chances and be underweight on a lot a quality drivers.

    Fourth, while Harvick/Kyle Busch (one or the other) seem to be the chalk, given that Indy is such a unique track and they haven’t raced here since last year, I’m not going to consider past Indy results for drivers only as much as I normally do for other tracks (in fact, as mentioned previously, I will now totally disregard the 2017 Indy results, whereas before last year’s race played at least a minimal role in lineup considerations for this year) and I will likely have a large share of lineups without either driver. Importantly, Indy has a history of drivers getting their one and only win of the year at this track. Consequently, neither the “Busch or Harvick” for the win scenario is a foregone conclusion. Further, given each of their price combined with their starting positions, a dominating win would be required to put one on the winning lineup, and there are very few dominator points at Indy.

    While not necessarily related to your question, I think it’s also important to recognize that tomorrow (or Monday’s) race will be the first time the last race before the playoffs is at Indy. For those who have watched/played/experienced these races in past years, strategy-wise this race will be substantially different from previous races as those vying to get into the playoffs will almost exclusively be racing against other similarly-situated drivers and not necessarily racing for the win; unless of course they have a shot at winning near the end, thus guaranteeing themselves a spot in the playoffs (look for drivers lower on the bubble-list to try to potentially get in with a win).

    On the other hand, drivers already in the playoffs will likely want to pad their playoffs points with stage top 10s and overall finish position.

    Finally, for the drivers already out of the playoffs, they will likely race hard but be more cautious than normal, keeping in mind that since they are already out they don’t want to be the “cause” of someone in contention not making the playoffs at all by doing something overly risky or stupid.

    With these things in mind, I would recommend everyone take a close look at the playoff standings and calculate what drivers on the bubble need to do to get in, as I think this will be important.

    EDIT: Added additional Harvick/Kyle Busch comments….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    I’ll rely on those numbers as usual, though with one exception. As the numbers start reaching closer to the back of the field I will likely not include a “minimum” number of drivers, if applicable, for a couple reasons.

    First, without practice and qualifying theoretically all drivers are starting about where they should be expected to finish. Meaning chalk place differential plays are going to be few and far between, or altogether non-existent.

    Second, without practice, I will rely even more on speed metrics for the year in this race. Indy already is a speed race but without better practice/qualifying data I’ll be overweight on cars that have been fast this year, particularly on the flat tracks and longer, non-plate tracks.

    Third, given the lack of data this week, and in light of my second point, my simulations are going to take on more significance in how I construct lineups. This necessarily means I’ll take chances and be underweight on a lot a quality drivers.

    Fourth, while Harvick/Kyle Busch (one or the other) seem to be the chalk, given that Indy is such a unique track and they haven’t raced here since last year, I’m not going to consider past Indy results as much as I normally do for other tracks (in fact, as mentioned previously, I will now totally disregard the 2017 Indy results, whereas before last year’s race played at least a minimal role in lineup considerations for this year) and I will likely have a large share of lineups without either driver. Importantly, Indy has a history of drivers getting their one and only win of the year at this track. Consequently, neither the “Busch or Harvick” for the win scenario is a foregone conclusion. Further, given each of their price combined with their starting positions, a dominating win would be required to put one on the winning lineup, and there are very few dominator points at Indy.

    While not necessarily related to your question, I think it’s also important to recognize that tomorrow (or Monday’s) race will be the first time the last race before the playoffs is at Indy. For those who have watched/played/experienced these races in past years, strategy-wise this race will be substantially different from previous races as those vying to get into the playoffs will almost exclusively be racing against other similarly-situated drivers and not necessarily racing for the win; unless of course they have a shot at winning near the end, thus guaranteeing themselves a spot in the playoffs (look for drivers lower on the bubble-list to try to potentially get in with a win).

    On the other hand, drivers already in the playoffs will likely want to pad their playoffs points with stage top 10s and overall finish position.

    Finally, for the drivers already out of the playoffs, they will likely race hard but be more cautious than normal, keeping in mind that since they are already out they don’t want to be the “cause” of someone in contention not making the playoffs at all by doing something overly risky or stupid.

    With these things in mind, I would recommend everyone take a close look at the playoff standings and calculate what drivers on the bubble need to do to get in, as I think this will be important.

    EDIT: Added additional Harvick/Kyle Busch comments….

    Great info..thanks…also read an article noting many of the drivers are worried about the first 10-15 laps as the track will be green with no rubber. Some drivers noted that there car is completely different with no rubber vs rubber on track. Hendrick drivers noted they do well straight from truck to practice usually with no rubber. I can think of several first practices this year when indeed Busch and Harvick struggled P1 and this could be from lack of rubber. Also it was noted that there might be two competition cautions due to lack of rubber and needing tires to stay fresh to lay rubber. Might see first at lap 10 and another at 20-25 as two sets of tires will lay more rubber than one set going the first 25.

  • gje627

    In conjunction with my previous comments, see below.

    Drivers that have Clinched a Playoff Spot

    1. Harvick
    2. Kyle Busch
    3. Truex, Jr.
    4. Bowyer
    5. Kurt Busch
    6. Logano
    7. Keselowski
    8. Elliott
    9. Jones
    10. Austin Dillon
    11. Larson
    12. Blaney
    13. Hamlin
    14. Almirola

    Playoff Bubble Drivers

    Currently in:

    15. Johnson +87
    16. Bowman +68

    Currently out:

    17. Stenhouse, Jr. -68
    18. Newman -83
    19. Menard -93
    20. Suarez -99

    EDIT: Based on points, Johnson is a virtual lock and Bowman just needs to be consistent and both (particularly Bowman) needs the race winner to not be a “new” winner this year (unless of course the new winner is either Bowman or Johnson). For bubble drivers 17-20, they will most likely need to win to get in…. However, the same holds true for drivers currently out of the playoff hunt but absent some strange pit strategy or late rain that ends the race under a “tweener” caution, no one outside of the seems top 20 has a realistic chance of winning, possibly with the exception of Matt Kenseth, BUT since he hasn’t run that many races this year I don’t think he is even eligible for the playoffs…. If someone here knows more, please chime-in, or tweet Bob Pockrass as he is usually great about replying to questions sent his way. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Per pockrass….

    Inspection now being treated as pre q inspection vs post q inspection. This means you have to not pass three times in order to be sent to back. It also means if sent to back you will be scored from your qualifying position.

  • sonic999

    • 931

      RG Overall Ranking

    Suarez—20th in points and not often in contention—has had a very disappointing year.

  • grahambo

    @sonic999 said...

    Suarez—20th in points and not often in contention—has had a very disappointing year.

    And doesn’t have a ride for next year…yet.

  • gje627

    Really wish we had the benefit of a full practice/qualifying weekend for Indy and that this race wasn’t THE race immediately preceding the playoffs (for reasons stated above), as with the exception of last year the data really provides a clear blueprint for exactly how to play this race….

    Most consistent of all simulations this year (by far)….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Torn on E Jones as his performance at Indy has not been good. No T20 finishes in four attempts, three in Xfinity and one Cup. Those races included several T10 starts and I need Xfinity it was not wrecks that resulted in these results.

  • gje627

    Fade Truex, Jr. and Suarez….

    Owner points qualifying is considered the same way as actual qualifying, both going to the back but being scored from 3rd and 20th, respectively.

    Though, if you really have cojones I guess Suarez may be playable….

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