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  • gje627

    Indianapolis Motor Speedway – “The Brickyard”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Saturday, 10:30 AM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 1:30 PM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Saturday, 6:15 PM Cancelled due to rain (NBCSN)
    — Technical Inspection: Sunday, 7:00 Saturday, 2:00 PM (impound race)
    — Race: Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, Monday, 1:00 2:00 PM Postponed to Monday due to rain (NBCSN)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 160 Laps, 400 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 50; Stage 2: Lap 51 – 100; Stage 3: Lap 101 – 160
    — Expected Fuel Window – 37-41 Laps.

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate as of 9/4/2018.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018 (13 Races)

    — 2.5 mile oval; 9-degree banking in all 4 turns (60 feet wide); 0-degree banking frontstretch/backstretch (both 3,300 feet long, 50 feet wide); in addition to cornering turns connected by “short chutes” of 660 feet long
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 1.711 seconds; Low – 0.332 seconds (2008); High – 4.758 seconds (2012); Finishes under caution 2006, 2017
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 21 of 23 Tracks (6.64 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles); sidenote: This is not a typo. Interestingly last week Darlington was ranked 21 but now including the 9/2/2018 race this past weekend Darlington is 20 and not 21.
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 21 of 23 Tracks (1.91 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 20 of 23 Tracks (2.01 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 19 of 23 Tracks (0.94 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 3 of 23 Tracks (62.03% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 17 of 23 Tracks (7.41% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 8 of 23 Tracks (7.96% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 11 of 23 Tracks (15.37% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes, Lead Changes, and Cautions standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Darlington Raceway, 9/2/2018).

    Data and Analytics Links

    TBD

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Martinsville Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway, Pocono Raceway, Richmond International Raceway

    Note: Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a unique track. Under some categorizations it is a Superspeedway (tracks 2.5 miles or longer) but it doesn’t race like Daytona or Talladega, for example. This may change somewhat in 2019 if NASCAR adopts rule changes requiring restrictor plates at the Brickyard.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 7/29/2012: Jimmie Johnson
    — 7/28/2013: Ryan Newman
    — 7/27/2014: Jeff Gordon
    — 7/26/2015: Kyle Busch
    — 7/24/2016: Kyle Busch
    — 7/23/2017: Kasey Kahne

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    7/29/2012: Jimmie Johnson (99.75 DK Fpts) – Jimmie Johnson (71.4FD FPts)
    7/28/2013: Jimmie Johnson (74.75 DK Fpts) – Ryan Newman (63.5FD FPts)
    7/27/2014: Jeff Gordon (83 DK Fpts) – Denny Hamlin (67.8FD FPts)
    7/26/2015: Kyle Busch (76.75 DK Fpts) – Kyle Busch (65.3FD FPts)
    7/24/2016: Kyle Busch (107.25 DK Fpts) – Kyle Busch (74.9FD FPts)
    7/23/2017: Kasey Kahne (67.5 DK Fpts) – Kasey Kahne (69.9FD FPts)

    Note: For analytical purposes, the 2017 race should largely be disregarded as it ended under caution and was overall a non-typical Brickyard race.

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    In the big DK contest, the shocker has to be Martin Truex, Jr. at 17.7%.

    Truex, Jr. has a max place differential score of 2 DK fantasy points (and will start the race with -36 place differential points… yes he should move up quickly but how far?). He also has very little chance of getting even a small percentage of the very few Indy dominator points available.

    Daniel Suarez moving to the back at 27.3% seems pretty high as well. I was thinking Truex, Jr. at around 5% and Suarez at 10-15% would have been about right.

    Also, looks like a fair amount contestants have rostered both Truex, Jr. and Suarez together in the same lineups….

    Bold strategy….

    In the $4 Truex 19%, Suarez 26% and Logano 28% all surprised me but as I said earlier Suarez was stil getting talked up after going to rear.

  • AshNconnor2015

    It’s been a pretty damn good race so far for the Xfinity boys at Indy!

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    In the $4 Truex 19%, Suarez 26% and Logano 28% all surprised me but as I said earlier Suarez was stil getting talked up after going to rear.

    Yeah, I also saw that people were still high on Suarez; but even though he may still finish strong and possibly a top 12 or so, I just can’t see how he makes it on a winning GPP lineup.

    Also, the only realistic chance Suarez has to make the playoffs is to win the race, so he will likely be taking a ton of chances today, possibly making his likely finish position boom or bust.

    I think the odds of bust are a lot higher than boom….

    I’m at 0%.

  • depalma13

    Well, Everyone I had crashed in the Xfinity race. I should get a prize for that.

  • yisman

    @gje627 said...

    In the big DK contest, the shocker has to be Martin Truex, Jr. at 17.7%.

    Truex, Jr. has a max place differential score of 2 DK fantasy points (and will start the race with -36 place differential points… yes he should move up quickly but how far?). He also has very little chance of getting even a small percentage of the very few Indy dominator points available.

    Daniel Suarez moving to the back at 27.3% seems pretty high as well. I was thinking Truex, Jr. at around 5% and Suarez at 10-15% would have been about right.

    Also, looks like a fair amount contestants have rostered both Truex, Jr. and Suarez together in the same lineups….

    Bold strategy….

    most people didn’t know truex and suarez were starting from the rear

    if everyone knew that, they’d each be significantly lower owned

  • gje627

    Also worth noting, Suarez at 10-15% might have made a somewhat nice contrarian play, but at 28% (more than a full one-fourth of the field), you will absolutely need to hit your other 5 drivers to beat competing lineups in a GPP even if Suarez has an excellent race.

    Thus, for those who are taking a shot on Suarez, I’d be really disappointed with his relatively high ownership.

  • AshNconnor2015

    I like Denny to win today.

  • Bucks1433

    The multiple competition cautions will really help Suarez. Within a few laps he should be able to move into the top 30 considering how much faster he is than the cars directly in front of him. The field will bunch up on lap 10, which helps him, and by the 2nd competition caution on lap 30, he could easily be near his official starting position (20th). From there, he has 130 laps to work with and it’s just a matter of seeing where he finishes which will determine if he is in a winning lineup or not, since you’re not needing a guy like that to lead laps or get fast laps.

    Whether or not he’s a good play when factoring in his history, etc. can be debated but moving to the back should really have little impact on him.

  • gje627

    @Bucks1433 said...

    The multiple competition cautions will really help Suarez. Within a few laps he should be able to move into the top 30 considering how much faster he is than the cars directly in front of him. The field will bunch up on lap 10, which helps him, and by the 2nd competition caution on lap 30, he could easily be near his official starting position (20th). From there, he has 130 laps to work with and it’s just a matter of seeing where he finishes which will determine if he is in a winning lineup or not, since you’re not needing a guy like that to lead laps or get fast laps.

    Whether or not he’s a good play when factoring in his history, etc. can be debated but moving to the back should really have little impact on him.

    Yeah, I don’t disagree and you make an excellent argument.

    My main point is that even though he could have a good day, being on the winning GPP lineup is still a longshot. Remember, since qualifying was cancelled there are no “chalk” place differential plays this week (as I mentioned previously), so everyone is starting roughly where they should be expected to finish. Suarez was already starting behind a lot of quality drivers, and starting the race in a deficit won’t help him or hurt the quality drivers starting in front of him.

    Without monster place differential points, every single position moving up will take on increased significance and finishing position will be very important today, also given the lack of dominator points.

    To put into context my previous point, I should also mention that I like a lot of drivers to do well today, but I also have a lot of these same drivers at 0% just because of how the numbers worked-out today (simulations, combinatorics, probability).

    It is NASCAR, so nothing should shock us, so Suarez could definitely surprise me and be on the winning GPP lineup (see last year’s Indy race) BUT since I’ve always been faithful about playing the numbers, that’s how I’m playing today too.

    Good Luck to You, and Everyone Else Here Today !!!

  • Bucks1433

    Starting by owner points definitely takes away any obvious place differential plays and the lack of on-track time really lends itself to more of a crapshoot. I also think people looked at Suarez’s performance at the July Pocono race where he started on the pole, led a chunk of laps, and finished 2nd as a potential ceiling for him.

    Hopefully it’s an exciting race no matter what. Good luck to you as well!

  • depalma13

    These fake cautions are destroying racing

  • DaBum2012

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Had that happen to me once but for Cup. By the time the race was over, only one of my drivers was going, lol! At least I finished ahead of the morons who pick start and parks every week not knowing their status.

  • depalma13

    Does Fanduel know they are running the race today?

  • gje627

    If it wasn’t a foregone conclusion based on starting position/penalty….

    There goes 18% of your competition…..

    No more Truex, Jr.

  • DaBum2012

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @depalma13 said...

    Does Fanduel know they are running the race today?

    The thing probably got stuck again and they probably forgot to fix it yesterday when the NFL’s and MLB’s thing went down.

  • gje627

    No more competition cautions, so now the real racing begins…..

    Hopefully we see some excitement.

    Indy can be boring.

    But, by the same token, hopefully it’s not as wild as last year….

  • tristanwolf

    my teams all lookin good then byron, busch and buscher are the first 3 to pit with tires goin down

  • unageo09

    I didn’t play this weekend. How’d everyone do?

  • DaBum2012

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    I won $167 that day and came in 4th on one of them.

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