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  • jt77316

    Michigan International Speedway
    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Friday, August 10
    12:05-12:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series opening practice, NBCSN
    1:05-1:55 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series opening practice, FS1
    3:05-3:55 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series final practice, FS1
    5:05 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Busch Pole Qualifying, NBCSN/NBC Sports

    Saturday, August 11
    8:35-9:25 a.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series second practice, CNBC/NBC Sports
    9:30 a.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series pole qualifying, FS1
    11:30 a.m.-12:20 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice, NBC Sports
    1 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Corrigan Oil 200 (100 laps, 200 miles), FS1

    Sunday, August 12
    2:30 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Consumers Energy 400 (200 laps, 400 miles), NBCSN/NBC Sports App

    Race Details

    — 200 Laps – 400 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 60; Stage 2: Lap 61-120; Stage 3: Lap 121-200

    Michigan International Speedway–

    — 2 Mile Large Oval
    18 degree banking in each turn.

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 6/12/2016: Joey Logano
    — 8/28/2016: Kyle Larson
    — 6/18/2017: Kyle Larson
    — 8/13/2017: Kyle Larson
    — 6/10/2018: Clint Bowyer

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    6/12/2016: Joey Logano (106 DK FPts) – Joey Logano (76.8 FD FPts)
    8/28/2016: Kyle Larson (83.75 DK FPts) – Kyle Larson (72.6 FD FPts)
    6/18/2017: Kyle Larson (85.50 DK FPts) – Kyle Larson (72.6 FD FPts)
    8/13/2017: Martin Truex, Jr. (99.75 DK FPts) – Martin Truex, Jr (71.4 FD FPts)
    6/10/2018: Kevin Harvick (68.75 DK FPts) – Clint Bowyer (62.6 FD FPts)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • unageo09

    Back to Michigan this weekend. Qualifying is set for 5:05 this evening for Sunday’s race.

  • mambaland

    can someone post the link to any fanduel or DK GPP for last michigan race

  • jt77316

    Top 20 from P1:

    Denny Hamlin
    Kurt Busch
    Daniel Suarez
    Ryan Blaney
    Kyle Busch
    Joey Logano
    Clint Bowyer
    Kyle Larson
    Alex Bowman
    Paul Menard
    Martin Truex Jr.
    Kevin Harvick
    Austin Dillon
    Chase Elliott
    Brad Keselowski
    Erik Jones
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
    Aric Almirola
    Chris Buescher
    Ryan Newman

  • unageo09

    Slight chance of rain Sunday but I don’t think weather will be an issue here like it was for the last race. DK will probably be lowering all the contests next month with football starting so better soak it all in while we can!

  • gje627

    @unageo09 said...

    Slight chance of rain Sunday but I don’t think weather will be an issue here like it was for the last race. DK will probably be lowering all the contests next month with football starting so better soak it all in while we can!

    Good point.

    If I recall correctly, the last two years once the NFL season starts, top DK contests went down to $20,000 for 1st and all remaining contests were slim (worthless).

    If this is the case again this year, I will definitely be moving most, if not, all my action to football and shortly thereafter, basketball.

    To me, it’s kind of a “what came first the chicken, or the egg” question for DK…..

    In other words, if they offered better NASCAR contests would more people play?

    Or….

    Are they not offering better NASCAR contests because too few people play?

    My opinion, with absolutely no back-up evidence whatsover….

    It’s the former and NOT the latter…..

    Wonder what everyone else thinks?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Good point.

    If I recall correctly, the last two years once the NFL season starts, top DK contests went down to $20,000 for 1st and all remaining contests were slim (worthless).

    If this is the case again this year, I will definitely be moving most, if not, all my action to football and shortly thereafter, basketball.

    To me, it’s kind of a “what came first the chicken, or the egg” question for DK…..

    In other words, if they offered better NASCAR contests would more people play?

    Or….

    Are they not offering better NASCAR contests because too few people play?

    My opinion, with absolutely no back-up evidence whatsover….

    It’s the former and NOT the latter…..

    Wonder what everyone else thinks?

    No more golf for you? Or have you had your fair share with Finau and Casey? Was looking through other players lineups and noticed you maxed the milly maker with high ownership on those two players….😤

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    No more golf for you? Or have you had your fair share with Finau and Casey? Was looking through other players lineups and noticed you maxed the milly maker with high ownership on those two players….😤

    80% Casey
    97% Finau

    Yeah, as far as golf, when and if I play, I generally only the play the majors so I can max out the milly-maker….

    Finau’s had a hell of a day so far (strange, but exciting)….

    Casey was a major disappointment….

    We’ll see how the rest of Round 2 goes, and the weekend of course….

    EDIT: the percentages above are for all the PGA Championship contest I entered…. I entered a few more than just the milly-maker, so for that contest the numbers may not be exact, but they are very close.

    EDIT 2: Not a direct “jab” at you Coop, but I never download the contests to “check-up” on other contestants…. Typically, I’m only concerned with how I do, and really don’t care about monitoring other contestants…. After all if I lose, or win, it’s not going to matter what anyone else does…. This, for the same reason, I don’t allow RG to monitor my wins and losses….. Just don’t care, and don’t have time…. I.e., I play for myself and not for the fame or recognition from others (always find it odd that some people, NOT you, so please don’t take this as a criticism, seem to spend an inordinate amount of time monitoring other contestants, rather than improving their own game)….

  • gje627

    @mambaland said...

    can someone post the link to any fanduel or DK GPP for last michigan race

    @mambaland

    Per your request, the link below is from my NASCAR database, and it includes all the loop data, FanDuel, and Draftkings data from the last race, as well as some other data I keep…..

    I’ll post in this thread and the current Michigan thread for anyone else that is interested.

    Hope this is what you are looking for.

    NASCAR-Michigan-2018-Race-1

    EDIT: Please note, qualifying speeds are high speeds throughout qualifying. As such, given current NASCAR “round-by-round” protocol, qualifying speed rank may or may NOT equal actual qualifying order. With that said, for NASCAR data purposes, the qualifying numbers are all correct.

  • gje627

    Please delete. Duplicate post due to the consolidation of similar comments from two separate NASCAR forum threads.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    80% Casey
    97% Finau

    Yeah, as far as golf, when and if I play, I generally only the play the majors so I can max out the milly-maker….

    Finau’s had a hell of a day so far (strange, but exciting)….

    Casey was a major disappointment….

    We’ll see how the rest of Round 2 goes, and the weekend of course….

    EDIT: the percentages above are for all the PGA Championship contest I entered…. I entered a few more than just the milly-maker, so for that contest the numbers may not be exact, but they are very close.

    EDIT 2: Not a direct “jab” at you Coop, but I never download the contests to “check-up” on other contestants…. Typically, I’m only concerned with how I do, and really don’t care about monitoring other contestants…. After all if I lose, or win, it’s not going to matter what anyone else does…. This, for the same reason, I don’t allow RG to monitor my wins and losses….. Just don’t care, and don’t have time…. I.e., I play for myself and not for the fame or recognition from others (always find it odd that some people, NOT you, so please don’t take this as a criticism, seem to spend an inordinate amount of time monitoring other contestants, rather than improving their own game)….

    No issues sir…I look at others lineups in golf to get a feel for there lineup construction. Lineup construction in golf and NASCAR are vastly different due to the amount of players available to pick plus the competition level is much greater in golf than NASCAR not to mention the scoring is completely different due to upside and downside. Lineup construction in golf varies weekly while in NASCAR it is determined by qualifying. And it was no jab at you taking Finau and Casey as many players went high on them this week.

  • mambaland

    thanks gje..i was more looking for the link to the actual gpp for last race at michigan..my history takes forever to download and usually times out so i cant pull it up

  • gje627

    @mambaland said...

    thanks gje..i was more looking for the link to the actual gpp for last race at michigan..my history takes forever to download and usually times out so i cant pull it up

    Sorry about that. I misunderstood your question.

    I don’t have the link so I can’t help you out, though I should have saved it since it was my biggest NASCAR days of the year so far.

    Maybe if you re-post your question in this current thread, someone will have it for you. I’m pretty certain that a number of people keep these links.

  • gje627

    FYI: For those who may not know this, Ross Chastain will in fact be driving the #15 Solomon Plumbing car in the Sunday Cup series race. I mention this because Reed Sorenson drove the car in practice and qualifying, while Chastain was in Mid-Ohio for the Xfinity race. Sorenson qualified 35th but because of the driver change, Chastain will move to back of the field and start 40th, but be scored from the 35th starting position. Since Chastain has been one of the few backmarkers this year with decent results, I still think he’s worth playing if you need salary savings and are looking for a punt.

    Additionally, Garrett Smithley practiced and qualified yesterday in the #7, but did not practice today because he is also in the Mid-Ohio Xfinity race today. However, he will be driving tomorrow in the Cup race as well.

  • gje627

    FYI: More likely than not, most of you have already heard about Brian France’s recent arrest for DWI and possession of a controlled substance. Also, for those who have spent any time in the NASCAR forums this year, I’m sure you also know that I am definitely not a fan of Brian France.

    Hopefully, this latest incident will mark the end of his days leading NASCAR.

    Anger, frustration just the start for NASCAR industry over Brian France’s DWI

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Most of my attention has been on golf this week. Thought I saw a tweet that Jones broke something on his car during practice. Can anyone confirm his situation, thanks!

  • wscooby

    @Cooper08 said...

    Most of my attention has been on golf this week. Thought I saw a tweet that Jones broke something on his car during practice. Can anyone confirm his situation, thanks!

    As of now no news about moving to back, I will update if I hear something different.

  • unageo09

    @gje627 said...

    Good point.

    If I recall correctly, the last two years once the NFL season starts, top DK contests went down to $20,000 for 1st and all remaining contests were slim (worthless).

    If this is the case again this year, I will definitely be moving most, if not, all my action to football and shortly thereafter, basketball.

    To me, it’s kind of a “what came first the chicken, or the egg” question for DK…..

    In other words, if they offered better NASCAR contests would more people play?

    Or….

    Are they not offering better NASCAR contests because too few people play?

    My opinion, with absolutely no back-up evidence whatsover….

    It’s the former and NOT the latter…..

    Wonder what everyone else thinks?

    Not sure how much NFL I will play this year. I just can’t seem to put all the pieces together.

  • wscooby

    I guess Jones starts 4th

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Here was that tweet but can’t find anything after so must’ve been nothing major. “Something broke or something,” says @erik_jones “Bring it to us, don’t take any chances,” replies Chris Gayle #NASCAR

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    To the rear today (so far): Ragan (transmission change), Blake (not Erik) Jones (transmission change), Ross Chastain (driver change)

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Per Bob Pockrass. Erik Jones team says nothing broke at the end of practice yesterday. All good for today.

  • decker91

    man todays the day that chase burns me

  • Deltfish

    • 798

      RG Overall Ranking

    Gje – for cash lineup do you recommend a dominator like Kyle or Harvick or can you roll with all PD guys?

  • gje627

    @Deltfish said...

    Gje – for cash lineup do you recommend a dominator like Kyle or Harvick or can you roll with all PD guys?

    I don’t play NASCAR cash, but certainly your better bet would seem to be to play as many high floor drivers as possible.

    Regarding today’s race, if I did play cash here would be the factors I would take into account when deciding how many dominators to play:

    1. Daniel Suarez is being scored from dead last, but due to some drivers already moving to the back he will actually start a few positions higher. While Michigan isn’t Suarez’s best track, given his equipment relative to the drivers around him, and his talent, I imagine he is almost a must play as a top 22 finish is almost guaranteed, unless of course he crashes or has equipment failure.

    2. Today, every driver starting between 15 and 21 is strong, and most are in fast cars. REMEMBER a dominator isn’t only a driver who leads a lot of laps, but who also has fast lap potential as well (on DK more points for fast laps than laps led). Thus, in my estimation the ultimate cash plays today would be combining drivers with both speed and significant place differential upside.

    3. Of all races during the year, Michigan ranks squarely in the upper 30th percentile for fewest number of laps run, meaning, there are on average fewer laps led dominator points to divide among drivers.

    4. In light of #3, Michigan ranks 5th of 23 tracks in the number of lead changes per race. Thus, laps led dominator points are further watered down among a number of drivers.

    5. There is a 50% chance of rain today, meaning the potential for a shortened race, further reducing laps led dominator points. Even if it rains, there is a delay, and they eventually complete the full race, we all know that laps led dominators before a weather delay are often substantially different than laps led dominators after a delay, particularly a long rain delay.

    6. Consider #3, #4, and #5 together, AND also note with the possible exception of Kevin Harvick there is no clear car that is vastly superior to other cars this week, at least according to “garage-talk”, thus it seems unlikely that Harvick or another driver gets to the front early and basically rides alone out front all race. Also, with the advent of stage racing, and therefore an increase in different pit strategies, we have consistently seen the huge single dominator fantasy point scores for individual drivers as something from the past, as strategy at the end of stages always seems to shuffle the order of drivers on the restart. EDIT: Just heard because of overnight rain, there will be a competition caution on lap 25. Thus essentially adding another stage break to further shuffle re-start order.

    7. In addition to lead change rank of 5th, Michigan also ranks 5th in highest number of both green flag passes and quality passes among the 23 tracks; indicating even further that a driver out front, or near the front can’t simply keep cars from passing by taking aero away from other cars or blocking.

    8. Michigan ranks 20th among 23 tracks in highest number of DNFs (higher for mechanical DNFs as opposed to crash DNFs) and also 7th for highest percentage of drivers who finish on the lead lap; further indicating that significant place differential is available until the very end of the race as very few drivers generally have to struggle (and sacrifice speed with strategy) to get back on the lead lap.

    9. Conclusion, IF I played cash, for today’s race lineup based on starting position, I would likely favor drivers who have who have all the following: place differential upside, capacity to get a handful of fast laps points, and who can finish relatively high for finishing position points. Thus, I would limit my Laps Led Dominator to no more than one (1) driver, and try to find that one (1) driver who can truly lead a ton of laps and also finish in the top 1 to 5. Absent having a driver with this potential, I would seriously consider, not playing a Laps Led Dominator at all.

    Hope this helps….

    Hope this makes sense (i.e. how to apply to a cash game strategy).

    Good luck today. :)

    EDIT: Can’t say I caught all of my typos, but think I got the important ones.

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    I don’t play NASCAR cash, but certainly your better bet would seem to be to play as many high floor drivers as possible.

    Regarding today’s race, if I did play cash here would be the factors I would take into account when deciding how many dominators to play:

    1. Daniel Suarez is being scored from dead last, but due to some drivers already moving to the back he will actually start a few positions higher. While Michigan isn’t Suarez’s best track, given his equipment relative to the drivers around him, and his talent, I imagine he is almost a must play as a top 22 finish is almost guaranteed, unless of course he crashes or has equipment failure.

    2. Today, every driver starting between 15 and 21 is strong, and most are in fast cars. REMEMBER a dominator isn’t only a driver who leads a lot of laps, but who also has fast lap potential as well (on DK more points for fast laps than laps led). Thus, in my estimation the ultimate cash plays today would be combining drivers with both speed and significant place differential upside.

    3. Of all races during the year, Michigan is ranks squarely in the upper 30th percentile of total number of laps run, meaning, meaning their are on average fewer laps led dominator points to divide among drivers.

    4. In light of #3, Michigan ranks 5th of 23 tracks in the number of lead changes per race. Thus, laps led dominator points are further watered down among a number of drivers.

    5. There is a 50% chance of rain today, meaning the potential for a shortened race, further reducing laps led dominator points. Even if it rains, there is a delay, and they eventually complete the full race, we all know that laps led dominators before a weather delay are often substantially different than laps led dominators after a delay, particularly a long rain delay.

    6. Consider #3, #4, and #5 together, AND also note with the possible exception of Kevin Harvick there is no clear car that is vastly superior to other cars this week, at least according to “garage-talk”, thus it seems unlikely that Harvick or another driver gets to the front early and basically rides alone out front all race. Also, with the advent of stage racing, and therefore an increase in different pit strategies, we have consistently seen the huge single dominator fantasy point scores for individual drivers as something from the past, as strategy at the end of stages always seems to shuffle the order of drivers on the restart. EDIT: Just heard because of overnight rain, there will be a competition caution on lap 25. Even though drivers won’t be able to take fuel, there is still likely to be different tire strategies; thus essentially adding another stage break to further shuffle re-start order.

    7. In addition to lead change rank of 5th, Michigan also ranks 5th in highest number of both green flag passes and quality passes among the 23 tracks; indicating even further that a driver out front, or near the front can’t simply keep cars from passing by taking aero away from other cars or blocking.

    8. Michigan ranks 20th among 23 tracks in highest number of DNFs (higher for mechanical DNFs as opposed to crash DNFs) and also 7th for highest percentage of drivers who finish on the lead lap; further indicating that significant place differential is available until the very end of the race as very few drivers generally have to struggle (and sacrifice speed with strategy) to get back on the lead lap.

    9. Conclusion, IF I played cash, for today’s race lineup based on starting position, I would likely favor drivers who have who have all the following: place differential upside, capacity to get a handful of fast laps points, and who can finish relatively high for finishing position points. Thus, I would limit my Laps Led Dominator to no more than one (1) driver, and try to find that one (1) driver who can truly led a ton of laps and also finish in the top 3 to 5. Absent having a driver with this potential, I would seriously consider, not playing a Laps Led Dominator at all.

    Hope this helps….

    Hope this makes sense (i.e. how to apply to a cash game strategy).

    Good luck today. :)

    great commentary gje. much appreciated.

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