NASCAR FORUM

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  • jt77316

    Michigan International Speedway
    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Friday, August 10
    12:05-12:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series opening practice, NBCSN
    1:05-1:55 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series opening practice, FS1
    3:05-3:55 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series final practice, FS1
    5:05 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Busch Pole Qualifying, NBCSN/NBC Sports

    Saturday, August 11
    8:35-9:25 a.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series second practice, CNBC/NBC Sports
    9:30 a.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series pole qualifying, FS1
    11:30 a.m.-12:20 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice, NBC Sports
    1 p.m.: NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Corrigan Oil 200 (100 laps, 200 miles), FS1

    Sunday, August 12
    2:30 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Consumers Energy 400 (200 laps, 400 miles), NBCSN/NBC Sports App

    Race Details

    — 200 Laps – 400 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 60; Stage 2: Lap 61-120; Stage 3: Lap 121-200

    Michigan International Speedway–

    — 2 Mile Large Oval
    18 degree banking in each turn.

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 6/12/2016: Joey Logano
    — 8/28/2016: Kyle Larson
    — 6/18/2017: Kyle Larson
    — 8/13/2017: Kyle Larson
    — 6/10/2018: Clint Bowyer

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    6/12/2016: Joey Logano (106 DK FPts) – Joey Logano (76.8 FD FPts)
    8/28/2016: Kyle Larson (83.75 DK FPts) – Kyle Larson (72.6 FD FPts)
    6/18/2017: Kyle Larson (85.50 DK FPts) – Kyle Larson (72.6 FD FPts)
    8/13/2017: Martin Truex, Jr. (99.75 DK FPts) – Martin Truex, Jr (71.4 FD FPts)
    6/10/2018: Kevin Harvick (68.75 DK FPts) – Clint Bowyer (62.6 FD FPts)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    Erik Jones is just determined to ruin my day.

  • bigperm0107

    Yep, Jones says it feels like his car is broken. That is always wants to crash into turn 2. Not looking favorable for a good day.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    Chase Elliot back in this!

  • bigperm0107

    Somehow I ended up with 100% byron. lol not looking good.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    I still think stage racing is the dumbest thing ever. Perhaps the most diehard of NASCAR fans like it… but it just seems so lame. Reminds me of FedEx points in golf. Who really cares?

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    I’m that guy that drafts Ty Dillon who runs over debris to knock himself out.

  • decker91

    some day ill make some money in this sport 100 percent ty dillion

  • bigperm0107

    I was 100% byron so I feel your pain. That was crazy though. That piece of debris litterly blew his car up. That was a trip.

  • homers1226

    #10 Aric Almirola 12.7% 139/200 11 7 4 Place Diff, 1 Fastest Laps, 1 7th 41.5
    #12 Ryan Blaney 25.6% 139/200 8 2 6 Place Diff, 4 Fastest Laps, 1 2nd 50
    #41 Kurt Busch 24.1% 139/200 12 5 7 Place Diff, 1 Fastest Laps, 1 5th 46.5
    #98 Kevin Harvick 29.9% 139/200 3 1 2 Place Diff, 66 Laps Led, 41 Fastest Laps, 1 WINS 85
    #95 Kasey Kahne 10.1% 139/200 28 27 1 Place Diff, 1 Fastest Laps, 1 27th 18.5
    #34 Michael McDowell 8.9% 139/200 29 23 6 Place Diff, 1 23rd 27
    TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 268.50

    with in striking distance

    missed you last week gje

    lol

  • homers1226

    @bigperm0107 said...

    I was 100% byron so I feel your pain. That was crazy though. That piece of debris litterly blew his car up. That was a trip.

    no way it was a battery ??

  • bigperm0107

    Yeah they think it was a battery.

  • homers1226

    harvick doms the rest of tis race

    +1 win

  • homers1226

    @bigperm0107 said...

    Yeah they think it was a battery.

    no haz mat team to clean up all the acid

    cant be good for the tires

    or anything else

  • depalma13

    Well today was a complete cluster.

  • gje627

    Solo 8th, 13th, and tie for 17th in the DK Piston (DK big contest)….

    Best lineup 3.5 points behind a five-way tie for 1st…..

    Of which @stevietpfl was one of the ties !!!

    Congratulations Stevie !!!

    EDIT: And @sunglassman, who tied with Stevie for 1st !!!

  • EhhTimmay

    Only made 2 lineups, sitting at 263.5 and 264 with a combined 1, and 8 from Byron/Castain, and Byron/Bowman.

    What could’ve been…. Oh well. Happy to profit at least.

  • gje627

    Definitely not complaining, as I’ve had a great year and I’ve been on the right side of variance more often than not….

    But today was frustrating….

    A sample of my top finishing lineups in various DK GPPs…..

    2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 11, 13, 16, 17, 24, 24, 29, 33, 41, 44, 46, 47, 48, 50, 51… and on-and-on…..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Definitely not complaining, as I’ve had a great year and I’ve been on the right side of variance more often than not….

    But today was frustrating….

    A sample of my top finishing lineups in various DK GPPs…..

    2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 11, 13, 16, 17, 24, 24, 29, 33, 41, 44, 46, 47, 48, 50, 51… and on-and-on…..

    Nice job!

  • ToDoubleD

    @homers1226 said...

    no haz mat team to clean up all the acid

    cant be good for the tires

    or anything else

    They are lithium batteries .

  • wscooby

    WTG !!! GJE!!! nice finishes, I struggled again…. 3 weeks in a row.

  • gje627

    Coop and wscooby, thanks !!!

    May look impressive, but I only profited around $1,400 given the ties in front of me, as I actually had the 2nd or 3rd (and in some cases 2nd and 3rd) best lineups in the tournaments….

    Oh well, once again, I’ve been on the “good side” of winning big this year several times too (i.e. screwing others out of a lot of money as well), so I am not complaining….

  • wscooby

    how can I get to the top, always seems like the supposed sub-optimal plays keep making noise

  • gje627

    @wscooby said...

    how can I get to the top, always seems like the supposed sub-optimal plays keep making noise

    I think you probably know, but I’m a math player….

    If you’re playing GPPs, to cover variance at around 80% in NASCAR (track dependent, size of field dependent, starting order of top driver dependent), you will need a minimum of 45 lineups to be successful, but importantly that is contingent on at least one driver being a near “sure thing”; i.e. Suarez this weekend, Harvick on many weekends.

    Importantly, with an 80% expected success rate, thereby hedging variance, you will also need to know how to build your lineups; meaning which combination of characteristics you need for each driver in certain lineup positions to give you the highest probability to win. Also critical, your higher scoring, and most likely higher-priced drivers, are the ones you need to “cover” first, because you can’t win without the highest scoring drivers, regardless of price.

    Once you have these numbers figured-out, and I’ve wrote extensively on this during the season, it’s mostly pattern matching; but in NASCAR since each track/race/driver starting position (opportunity) is different (unlike other sports, where all players essentially start a game/match equal), this must be done by individual track, etc….

    That’s the down-and-dirty on how I play NASCAR, though there are some other “consistently” successful players who may have a different approach… so maybe they can chime in as well….

    EDIT: One more thing…. And this is important…. With the exception of the so-called “dominator”, though dominator has yet to accurately defined in NASCAR, be VERY skeptical of individual driver recommendations that are made BEFORE seeing how these individual drivers fit into a lineup as whole. Often, the “sure thing” recommendations don’t consider that driver’s salary and how they fit into an entire lineup with other good drivers. Remember, one driver does NOT make a GPP lineup, it’s the collective opportunity and strength of all five or six drivers (depending on site) together.

  • Toddalan2286

    @wscooby said...

    how can I get to the top, always seems like the supposed sub-optimal plays keep making noise

    For what it’s worth no one entered the optimal lineup for draft kings…

    We as players and the experts spend a lot of time on The Who’s and not enough on the what’s (the known variables such as how historical optimal lineups have performed) total/avg start position, start position groupings, total salary, other patterns etc. understanding these help me be more competitive with a fraction of the lineups entered than those entering 50 plus.

    Michigan #2 optimal lineup

    Kevin Harvick
    Brad Keselowski
    Austin Dillon
    Kurt Busch
    Daniel Suarez
    Blake Jones

    For example the average start of the winning lineup in the beast was 22.16 where recent track history told us that the average start should be between 15 and 20, knowing that Suarez would inflate it a little. The optimal lineup above had an average start of 19.50.

    My point is trust YOUR process. I’m by no means a pro, haven’t won a gpp, but I have spent a lot of time this season developing a process for myself and studying not only driver stats but how known pre race variables (other than driver stats) can be used to help predict outcomes. Most of my lineups (18) this week had an average start in the 18-20 range, some a little less. While I didn’t win I consider this a win for myself (confidence) knowing that my strategy matched that of the optimal lineup, and had it hit I likely would’ve won with a unique lineup. Avoiding the noise is the tough part and something I’ve yet to master. Noise being the WHOs and practice, yes, practice can create a lot of noise. Looking back at some of my notes it made perfect sense to pair Dillon and Harvick, of course with Suarez locked. This based on start position groupings and salary. However the noise takes over and the stats and expert advice can shift focus. That’s hard to manage and ignore.

    Trust your process, learn how to avoid the noise and focus just as much on the potential predictor variables.

  • gje627

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    For what it’s worth no one entered the optimal lineup for draft kings…

    We as players and the experts spend a lot of time on The Who’s and not enough on the what’s (the known variables such as how historical optimal lineups have performed) total/avg start position, start position groupings, total salary, other patterns etc. understanding these help me be more competitive with a fraction of the lineups entered than those entering 50 plus.

    Michigan #2 optimal lineup

    Kevin Harvick
    Brad Keselowski
    Austin Dillon
    Kurt Busch
    Daniel Suarez
    Blake Jones

    For example the average start of the winning lineup in the beast was 22.16 where recent track history told us that the average start should be between 15 and 20, knowing that Suarez would inflate it a little. The optimal lineup above had an average start of 19.50.

    My point is trust YOUR process. I’m by no means a pro, haven’t won a gpp, but I have spent a lot of time this season developing a process for myself and studying not only driver stats but how known pre race variables (other than driver stats) can be used to help predict outcomes. Most of my lineups (18) this week had an average start in the 18-20 range, some a little less. While I didn’t win I consider this a win for myself (confidence) knowing that my strategy matched that of the optimal lineup, and had it hit I likely would’ve won with a unique lineup. Avoiding the noise is the tough part and something I’ve yet to master. Noise being the WHOs and practice, yes, practice can create a lot of noise. Looking back at some of my notes it made perfect sense to pair Dillon and Harvick, of course with Suarez locked. This based on start position groupings and salary. However the noise takes over and the stats and expert advice can shift focus. That’s hard to manage and ignore.

    Trust your process, learn how to avoid the noise and focus just as much on the potential predictor variables.

    AMEN BROTHER !!!

    If you go through the forums, you’ll see a lot of questions such as….

    “Hamlin/Bowman or Bowyer/Byron?”

    This is the wrong question as nobody knows the other four (4) drivers in your lineup, so it’s impossible to answer….

    Personally, I study drivers last…. My primary research focus is, in this order (abbreviated list to cover the most important things, in my estimation at least):

    1. Opportunity
    2. Opportunity (yes, redundant)
    3. Pattern Matching (people say NASCAR is crap-shoot, it’s not, with the correct analytical techniques it’s amazing the similarities of certain patterns you find race-after-race)
    4. Variance (without a per race, per track variance calculation you’re really pissing in the wind…. where the wind is blowing in your face of course)

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