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  • jt77316

    ISM Raceway

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 1:35 PM (Not Televised)
    — Qualifying: Friday, 6:10 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 11:35 AM (FS1)
    — Race: TicketGuardian 500, Sunday, 3:30 PM (FOX)

    Race Details

    — 36 Drivers Entered; 312 Laps, 310 Miles/500 Kilometers
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 75; Stage 2: Lap 76 – 150; Stage 3: Lap 151 – 312
    — Expected Fuel/Pit Window – xx-xx Laps

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate.

    ISM Raceway –

    1 Mile Oval

    Banking

    8°-9° in Turns 1-2
    10°-11° in Frontstretch Dogleg
    10°-11° in Turns 3-4
    9° on the Frontstretch
    3° on the Backstretch

    Comparable Tracks

    Richmond and New Hampshire

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 11/13/2016: Joey Logano
    — 03/19/2017: Ryan Newman
    — 11/12/2017: Matt Kenseth
    — 03/11/2018: Kevin Harvick
    — 11/11/2018: Kyle Busch

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    11/13/2016: Alex Bowman (110.50 DK FPts) – Alex Bowman (84.3 FD FPts)
    03/19/2017: Kyle Busch (103.00 DK FPts) – Ryan Newman (85.5 FD FPts)
    11/12/2017: Matt Kenseth (92.00 DK FPts) – Matt Kenseth (83.4 FD FPts)
    03/11/2018: Kyle Busch (111.50 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (89.5 FD FPts)
    11/11/2018: Kyle Busch (93.25 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (88.4 FD FPts)

    Data from Last 5 Phoenix Races

    Driver Rating:

    1. Kyle Busch – 119.4
    2. Chase Elliott – 110.2
    3. Kevin Harvick – 109.7
    4. Denny Hamlin – 103.4
    5. Brad Keselowski – 100.8

    Laps Led:

    1. Kyle Busch – 359
    2. Denny Hamlin – 230
    3. Alex Bowman – 194
    4. Chase Elliott – 156
    5. Kevin Harvick – 111

    Fastest Laps:

    1. Chase Elliott – 154
    2. Kyle Busch – 153
    3. Kevin Harvick – 103
    4. Brad Keselowski – 97
    5. Kyle Larson – 93

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather
    Scott Pagejayski

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • rourke441

    kyle busch harvick chase 2 cheapies

  • jt77316

    @rourke441 said...

    kyle busch harvick chase 2 cheapies

    Still need a 6th. Curious what the salaries will be.

  • toasty99

    Well the SHR cars are good value with Suarez and Bowyer starting near the back and Harvick having about a 50 percent chance of winning.

    Add in Larson and you already having a good 4 out of 6 for a lineup

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Have to take a deeper dive into how the numbers could play out but initial thought is Harvick might not be a good play. Very expensive and if he wins like last year at end with few laps led his point total might not be good enough. Also going to be tougher this year as he has Blaney who looks like has a very good car along with Elliott, Hamlin and Ky Busch starting in front of him while the last three drivers all excel at this track to.

  • nickfromcwe

    • 870

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #62

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Cooper08 said...

    Have to take a deeper dive into how the numbers could play out but initial thought is Harvick might not be a good play. Very expensive and if he wins like last year at end with few laps led his point total might not be good enough. Also going to be tougher this year as he has Blaney who looks like has a very good car along with Elliott, Hamlin and Ky Busch starting in front of him while the last three drivers all excel at this track to.

    Just to put into perspective: the last five spring races at ISM Harvick has started 10/23/18/1/13 and finished 1/6/1/1/1. In terms of raw point totals he has finished 2/4/1/1/1 (does not include fastest laps and all calculated by hand as I do not know where to find previous DK race totals). He has a lot of experience here coming through the field and every year other drivers have fielded faster cars or cars as fast. I am not necessarily saying that he is a lock but I also do not think he is not going to be a good play. He is still in the upper tier of NASCAR drivers and it would not shock me if he is the highest scoring driver this weekend. It also does not hurt that he comes with some potential place differential as well, which never hurts.

    That said, Blaney has a very fast car and is much better than his current situation suggests, having dealt with a significant amount of bad luck this year. He is a guy I was eyeballing coming into this race and now that he has the pole and a fast car, I have an extreme amount of interest. The biggest question for me as always with the pole sitter is how long can they maintain the pole and if they lose it, how far will they fall back? Considering 4 laps led = 1 place differential (not to mention the steeper fall from 1 to 2 in finishing position points), falling back can really put a dent into your fantasy score. Plus, who does not love the narrative of a different Penske driver winning three weeks in a row?

    Polarizing for me is definitely Denny Hamlin. He continues to qualify higher than I would like. If I am not mistaken, he was woeful on restarts in 2018 and if that trend continues, he needs long run speed to really give himself a shot at a good fantasy day. Hamlin is a guy in 2019 who can very easily end up being a really good real life performer and substandard fantasy performer given lack of potential upside each week.

    One driver who I have some interest in is David Ragan. If this is a week where we get more than one guy dominating the race at the top of the price range (entirely possible), Ragan could be a good glue piece. I do think Ragan is typically unpredictable and week in and week out results of 12-32 are possible, but the price is low and he has a solid upside starting 29th. A finish of 22nd with nothing else gets him over 30 fantasy points.

    Those are just my thoughts. I obviously could be wrong on everything. I try not to get my mind working too hard on MENCS until the XFINITY race is over, but those are just early notes I made after qualifying.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Nice post Nick. What I am having issues with for Harvick is his price, the most expensive he has been at this track, along with his lack of scoring. He hasn’t been a dominator in his wins, usually winning by taking the lead near the end. When you play him it’s tougher to get the good value in this week, which is 8k and above. Let’s see how practice goes.

  • nickfromcwe

    • 870

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #62

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Cooper08 said...

    Nice post Nick. What I am having issues with for Harvick is his price, the most expensive he has been at this track, along with his lack of scoring. He hasn’t been a dominator in his wins, usually winning by taking the lead near the end. When you play him it’s tougher to get the good value in this week, which is 8k and above. Let’s see how practice goes.

    In 14, 15 and 16 he put up over 100 fantasy points in his wins. He also led at least 135 laps in those races, and in 14 and 15 he led 224 in both. The production has been there. We are talking about 1 win in the spring race since 2014 where he didn’t have a huge number, but scoring, in general, was low with I think only he, Busch and Hamlin putting up over 50 fantasy points in that race.

    That is all great that it happened in the past, but if we get a race where we have a bunch of guys leading 80 laps, and you have some guys like Larson, Suarez and Bowyer that have good opportunity for place differential upside, then it makes it much more difficult to swallow the Harvick price.

    So yeah, on Harvick I think it just depends how you think the race goes. If you think he has upside of 100+ laps led and finishes in the top 3, then he is probably going to need to be in your lineups. If you think it looks more like last year and other guys at lower prices like Blaney, Chase or Hamlin can do similar, then he probably will not be in the conversation.

  • tristanwolf

    anyone playing some xfinity today? kyle looks like a no brainer. i like ryan truex a bit, fast in practice and people might not be on him as much with the no stats so far.

  • tristanwolf

    lol n mind after listening to a few pods everyone is on truex in a jr car.

  • nickfromcwe

    • 870

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #62

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Frustrating to watch that happen to Bell and Algaier. Bell had a great start to things and Algaier was moving his way up. Needless to say I had a ton of both. Still had more Busch than the field and came really close to the optimal combo to take the $8 down but 9th is not bad.

  • dbullsfan

    frustrating day for Bell for sure….Tomorrow is going to be really interesting. Blaney has shown speed and Penske has been top dog this year but he is at a track that hasn’t been his best surrounded by the best of the best at Phoenix. Chase, Hamlin, Kes, and KB all place in the top 5 in fastest laps, Running position, and average driver rating over the past 4 races here all starting 2-5 (Harvick the other starting 8th). Clean air is certainly king but any slip up from Blaney and he probably drops out of the top 5 pretty quickly. First time I’m honestly not sure what the heck I’m going to do.

  • dabouch1988

    Kiss of death by stevetpfl saying Harvick has run every lap in 14 straight races. I am fading him in a number of lineups as he has faded the past 2 weeks late in races from his normal dominance, My top 5 is 1. Kyle Busch 2. Joey Logano 3. Brad Keselowski 4. Chase Elliott 5. William Byron

  • Luctyl99

    I really like blaney for today. I realize that his track history isnt the best, but he has been extremely fast this weekend. I think he clearly has the car for a top 5 finish and believe he can lead a bunch of laps to start

  • Stangs13

    How chalky with the harvick/Kyle with bowyer Larson Suarez be? Isn’t many combinations that I think could work with that. Chastain ragan McDowell and tift. I feel like you will split with a bunch of you do that. The question would them be who do you pivot to and from?

  • Toddalan2286

    @nickfromcwe said...

    In 14, 15 and 16 he put up over 100 fantasy points in his wins. He also led at least 135 laps in those races, and in 14 and 15 he led 224 in both. The production has been there. We are talking about 1 win in the spring race since 2014 where he didn’t have a huge number, but scoring, in general, was low with I think only he, Busch and Hamlin putting up over 50 fantasy points in that race.

    That is all great that it happened in the past, but if we get a race where we have a bunch of guys leading 80 laps, and you have some guys like Larson, Suarez and Bowyer that have good opportunity for place differential upside, then it makes it much more difficult to swallow the Harvick price.

    So yeah, on Harvick I think it just depends how you think the race goes. If you think he has upside of 100+ laps led and finishes in the top 3, then he is probably going to need to be in your lineups. If you think it looks more like last year and other guys at lower prices like Blaney, Chase or Hamlin can do similar, then he probably will not be in the conversation.

    I’m with Coop. I think it is going to be difficult for Harvick to pay off his salary and fit into an optimal lineup. Now if he goes out and takes the lead 20-50 laps into the race and keeps that track position that’s another story. I just think the probability of that happening is lower having Blaney (and chase) out front where Blaney has shown speed and chase is solid here, Brad K. as well as Kyle Busch who has been dominant as well. I think track position is the key. So far this year we’ve seen more lead changes as opposed to last year. His price will may require him to be the lone dominator, unless him and Blaney are the only two and Blaney gets a top 5 finish. Then you have Joey again possibly going overlooked. He’s cheaper, has more place differential and has shown some speed as well. I won’t be shocked if Penske continues to be strong.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    I’m with Coop. I think it is going to be difficult for Harvick to pay off his salary and fit into an optimal lineup. Now if he goes out and takes the lead 20-50 laps into the race and keeps that track position that’s another story. I just think the probability of that happening is lower having Blaney (and chase) out front where Blaney has shown speed and chase is solid here, Brad K. as well as Kyle Busch who has been dominant as well. I think track position is the key. So far this year we’ve seen more lead changes as opposed to last year. His price will may require him to be the lone dominator, unless him and Blaney are the only two and Blaney gets a top 5 finish. Then you have Joey again possibly going overlooked. He’s cheaper, has more place differential and has shown some speed as well. I won’t be shocked if Penske continues to be strong.

    I was on Joey last week, not this week. He said he has good speed over a short run but not sure he has it long run.

    I watched the restarts from last years races yesterday. Every time except once did the leader pull away within a couple laps.

    Agree on track position, it’s key. Other key is avoiding pit errors.

    Want to fade Harvick bad, right now I am at 20%… won’t go higher, only lower.

  • CanaanIsLegend

    BUBBA WALLACE!!!!

  • Moneymakers90

    Alright do we fade harvick in fd gpp

  • yisman

    rolling the dice on Tifft and hoping he can finish top 30. Thus far this season he’s been 33rd, 31st, and 35th.

  • Luctyl99

    @yisman said...

    rolling the dice on Tifft and hoping he can finish top 30. Thus far this season he’s been 33rd, 31st, and 35th.

    Why though? Starting 30. IF he finishes top 25 even, hes getting you about 20 points.

  • yisman

    @Luctyl99 said...

    Why though? Starting 30. IF he finishes top 25 even, hes getting you about 20 points.

    savings.

    what else can I get for that price?

    I have to go double cheap (two guys under 6k) to afford the drivers I want.

  • Luctyl99

    @yisman said...

    savings.

    what else can I get for that price?

    I have to go double cheap (two guys under 6k) to afford the drivers I want.

    No I understand. I personally am going more balanced this week with Newman being my lowest priced guy. It just seems like the guys starting down lower this season who dont have very good cars are going multiple laps down very quickly and they have no chance of gaining anything

  • homers1226

    fav lu

    #12 Ryan Blaney 29.6
    D #37 Chris Buescher 30.6
    D #1 Kurt Busch 47.1
    D #18 Kyle Busch 45.9

  • Moneymakers90

    Sooo do.we fade harvick fd gpp

  • homers1226

    @Moneymakers90 said...

    Sooo do.we fade harvick fd gpp

    i wouldnt if playing more then 1 lu

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