NASCAR FORUM

Comments

  • jt77316

    Sonoma Raceway
    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Friday, June 22
    2:40-3:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice, FS1
    5:40-6:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice, FS1

    Saturday, June 23
    2:45 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Busch Pole Award qualifying, FS1

    PRESS PASS (Watch live)
    3:45 p.m.: Post-Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series qualifying

    Sunday, June 24
    3 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350, FS1

    Race Details

    — 110 Laps – 218.9 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 25; Stage 2: Lap 26-60; Stage 3: Lap 61-110

    Sonoma Raceway–

    — 1.99 mile 12 turn road course
    Pit Road/Stalls: 16′ wide by 29′ long, 58′ wide
    Pit Road Speed: 40 mph
    Pace Car Speed: 45 mph

    Sonoma-
    Recent Winners
    Kevin Harvick
    Tony Stewart
    Kyle Busch
    Carl Edwards
    Martin Truex, Jr.

    Last Five (5) DK Pt Leaders

    — 06/23/2013: Martin Truex, Jr. SP:14 FP:1 Fast Laps: 10 Laps Led 51 (76.75 DK Pts) Kurt Busch SP:7 FP:4 Fast Laps: 21 Laps Led: 15 (57.25 DK Pts)
    — 06/22/2014: Kasey Kahne SP:30 FP:6 Fast Laps: 5 Laps Led: 0 (64.5 DK Pts) Jeff Gordon SP:15 FP:2 Fast Laps: 6 Laps Led: 3 (58.75 DK Pts)
    — 06/28/2015: Kurt Busch SP:2 FP:2 Fast Laps: 20 Laps Led: 43 (62.75 DK Pts) Kyle Busch SP:11 FP:1 Fast Laps: 4 Laps Led: 17 (62.25 DK Pts)
    — 06/26/2016: Tony Stewart SP:10 FP:1 Fast Laps: 8 Laps Led: 22 (64.5 DK Pts) Kevin Harvick SP:25 FP:6 Fast Laps:7 Laps Led:3 (61.25 DK Pts)
    — 06/25/2017: Brad Keselowski. SP:24 FP:3 Fast Laps: 5 Laps Led: 17 (67.75 DK Pts) Kevin Harvick SP:12 FP:1 Fast Laps:5 Laps Led: 24 (65.50 DK Pts)

    Last Five (5) FanDuel Pt Leaders

    — 06/23/2013: Martin Truex, Jr. – (65.6 Pts) Jeff Gordon (55.4 Pts)
    — 06/22/2014: Kasey Kahne – (59 Pts) Carl Edwards (58.1 Pts)
    — 06/28/2015: Kyle Busch – (60.7 Pts) Kevin Harvick (55.5 Pts)
    — 06/26/2016: Tony Stewart – (60.7 Pts) Kevin Harvick (56.8 Pts)
    — 06/25/2017: Kevin Harvick – (61.9 Pts) Brad Keselowski (61.7 Pts)

    Data from Last 5 Sonoma Races

    Driver Rating:
    1. Kurt Busch – 107.1
    2. Kevin Harvick – 106
    3. Jimmie Johnson – 104.4
    4. Martin Truex, Jr. – 102.9
    5. AJ Allmendinger – 94.1

    Laps Led:
    1. Martin Truex, Jr. – 76
    2. AJ Allmendinger – 60
    3. Kurt Busch – 58
    4. Jimmie Johnson – 58
    5. Kevin Harvick – 50

    Fastest Laps:
    1. Kurt Busch – 53
    2. Martin Truex Jr. – 49
    3. Kevin Harvick – 33
    4. Jimmie Johnson – 32
    5. AJ Allmendinger – 25

    Race Data, News, Information, and Weather

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Stephen Young – Rotogrinders Lead NASCAR Analyst
    Kevin Roth – Rotogrinders Chief Meteorologist

  • jt77316

    Been waiting for this all week so I decided to give it a go myself. Let me know if anything needs added/changed. Good luck this week everyone.

  • unageo09

    Let’s go turn left and right this week in wine country! Looks like SHR was strong last year. I would bet that would be a good bet again this year.

  • CAMFAN11

    Jt great job. This the week we go overweight on mtj? Ran really well here past few years. All about the pd this week.

  • gje627

    Historically, road-course “ringers” have proven somewhat successful (not great, though) at Sonoma and Watkins Glen….

    However, this weekend, Chris Cook and Tomy Drissi are pretty much automatic fades….. Really don’t see them doing much of anything.

    EDIT: Thanks jt77316 for starting the thread. Great information !!! :)

  • mambaland

    is it harder to pass cars on this type track than left turn only ones

  • jt77316

    Anyone else feel that Kurt is underpriced? I know there’s a lot of weight on current form and he’s the worst SHR car, but there are loads of drivers that would love to be in his shoes.

  • Toddalan2286

    @jt77316 said...

    Anyone else feel that Kurt is underpriced? I know there’s a lot of weight on current form and he’s the worst SHR car, but there are loads of drivers that would love to be in his shoes.

    Yeah, I agree. I kind of thought Denny Hamlin wouldve been a bit higher as well. No surprise that Allmendingers price went up drastically.

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    Anyone else feel that Kurt is underpriced? I know there’s a lot of weight on current form and he’s the worst SHR car, but there are loads of drivers that would love to be in his shoes.

    Agree, absolutely.

  • gje627

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    Yeah, I agree. I kind of thought Denny Hamlin wouldve been a bit higher as well. No surprise that Allmendingers price went up drastically.

    Again….

    Agree, absolutely….

    Good catch guys….

  • dbullsfan

    Thanks JT for getting this started, the week off threw me off I guess. Totally agree on Hamlin and Kurt with yall. Key this week will be qualifying. While it isnt as dramatic as the restrictor plates you really don’t want more than 1 guy starting in the top 10 and depending on qualifying can get away with none if multiple strong cars start further back.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    Yeah, I agree. I kind of thought Denny Hamlin wouldve been a bit higher as well. No surprise that Allmendingers price went up drastically.

    If you consider Hamlin and Ku Busch underpriced then AJ would be in that group. While his results have been horrid recently at Sonoma it’s not due to his road course skills but his bad luck with equipment and strategy. In addition if they all start in the front then they become overpriced vs underpriced in my opinion. This race is strictly about qualifying from a DFS perspective, even more important than restrictor plate races.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Couple early thoughts…

    This is not a good race to over expose yourself to certain drivers. Strategy is key at this track and any driver can easily be caught up on the wrong end. Ownership should be more balanced this week within drivers so that should help as you won’t need to go 60-70% plus on a particular driver to gain edge.

    As mentioned strategy is key, might not be bad idea to watch last year race over. In the past this race was run backwards based on gas mileage so it wasn’t uncommon to see drivers pit out of sequence as you won’t go down a lap. With stage racing that has changed and there is no need to run the front of the race backwards, the front of the race strategy is all about how can I gain track position now. If you look at the statistics from Ly race the one stat that pops out and was different from previous years was laps in the T15. Previous years led to several cars that were 70%, 80% and 90% time spent in the T15. Ly the number of cars in the T15 was spread out and not nearly as many at 70% plus and the number for 80-90% plus was way down. Is this a one year anomaly, perhaps, or is this how the race will be run going forward. That’s why I suggest watching Ly to see what happened to make this occur.

    Do your research and you can eliminate a few drivers this week because they have never finished xx position or better on a road track. This will help when you see driver xx start 20th this week and his name looks great on paper but he has never finished better than 17th at a road course.

    Point diff is key this week but it’s tough to gain point diff from the drivers at 6k or lower. If you look at these drivers they have little to no experience in a Cup car on a road course or there results just are not good. Cole Whitt appears to be the best play by far in this price range. At his last couple Sonoma races he has had positive point diff. Hopefully he won’t start all the way in the back as that will really inflate his ownership. Whitt has shown that he can start late 20’s and finish in 21-23 place which would pay his price easily. Hopefully that is case this week as it should keep his ownership reasonable. One last bit on Whitt, I need to check who he was driving for as that could change things around when he placed well. The under 6k drivers are important this week as you will need to save salary to fit in the big boys, or is this a week that more balanced lineups win with only one or none in your lineup from that range.

  • yellowdart24

    @gje627 said...

    Historically, road-course “ringers” have proven somewhat successful (not great, though) at Sonoma and Watkins Glen….

    However, this weekend, Chris Cook and Tomy Drissi are pretty much automatic fades….. Really don’t see them doing much of anything.

    EDIT: Thanks jt77316 for starting the thread. Great information !!! :)

    Ready to retire yet?

  • gje627

    @yellowdart24 said...

    Ready to retire yet?

    Not quite yet….

    Having too much fun !!! :)

  • ljason8eg

    Justin Marks could be decent salary relief. Marks brought money so the 15 car will be stronger than usual plus he’s won an Xfinity road course race at Mid Ohio, a track with slower, technical sections much like Sonoma.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 223

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #35

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @ljason8eg said...

    Justin Marks could be decent salary relief. Marks brought money so the 15 car will be stronger than usual plus he’s won an Xfinity road course race at Mid Ohio, a track with slower, technical sections much like Sonoma.

    He won in the rain in good equipment (Chip Ganassi) fwiw

  • Numberoneoutlaw

    @jt77316 said...

    Anyone else feel that Kurt is underpriced? I know there’s a lot of weight on current form and he’s the worst SHR car, but there are loads of drivers that would love to be in his shoes.

    I disagree on Kurt being the worst of the SHR cars. He’s been better than Aric Almirola this year. His current form has been decent also. He’s def. underpriced as he’s a fantastic road course driver. Over the last 3 Sonoma races Kurt has a Driver rating of 111.1, ARP of 9.7, Avg finish of 6.3, 43 LL and 30 FL.

  • jt77316

    That is true and I will admit I kind of forgot about Almirola. With that said, over the last 6 races, he has averaged more points on DK and FD (poorer qualifying efforts) for what it’s worth, although Kurt has a better driver rating in that span.

  • Logan7777

    Hot weather for Sonoma with heat advisory in effect through this evening. 91 degrees for practices yesterday, 95 for qualifying today and then a big drop to 78 for the race. How much of a difference do you expect in performance of the cars between today and tomorrow due to the temperature differences?

  • gje627

    For what it’s worth to anyone here, and maybe to spark some conversation….

    I performed my Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations) and calculated projected fantasy points for the race tomorrow. As such, below are my Draftkings (don’t play FanDuel NASCAR) fantasy rankings by both projected points and value based on salary.

    For obvious reasons, I did not include my actual projected fantasy points or other relevant metrics in the rankings below. :)

    DK Fantasy Point Ranking

    1) Kevin Harvick 2) Kurt Busch 3) Clint Bowyer 4) Joey Logano 5) Martin Truex Jr 6) Kyle Busch 7) Denny Hamlin 8) Jimmie Johnson 9) Aric Almirola 10) Brad Keselowski 11) Jamie McMurray 12) Ryan Blaney 13) Kyle Larson 14) Ryan Newman 15) Kasey Kahne 16) Chase Elliott 17) Daniel Suarez 18) Erik Jones 19) Paul Menard 20) AJ Allmendinger 21) Austin Dillon 22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr 23) Ty Dillon 24) Justin Marks 25) Michael McDowell 26) David Ragan 27) Alex Bowman 28) Chris Buescher 29) William Byron 30) Matt DiBenedetto 31) Bubba Wallace 32) Cole Whitt 33) Cody Ware 34) Parker Kligerman 35) Chris Cook 36) Trevor Bayne 37) Gray Gaulding 38) Tomy Drissi.

    DK Driver Value Ranking

    1) Kurt Busch 2) Clint Bowyer 3) Joey Logano 4) Aric Almirola 5) Kevin Harvick 6) Denny Hamlin 7) Jamie McMurray 8) Kasey Kahne 9) Martin Truex Jr 10) Jimmie Johnson 11) Kyle Busch 12) Ryan Newman 13) Brad Keselowski 14) Ryan Blaney 15) Daniel Suarez 16) Paul Menard 17) Erik Jones 18) Austin Dillon 19) Justin Marks 20) Ty Dillon 21) Chase Elliott 22) David Ragan 23) AJ Allmendinger 24) Michael McDowell 25) Kyle Larson 26) Ricky Stenhouse Jr 27) Matt DiBenedetto 28) Chris Buescher 29) Cole Whitt 30) William Byron 31) Bubba Wallace 32) Cody Ware 33) Alex Bowman 34) Chris Cook 35) Parker Kligerman 36) Gray Gaulding 37) Trevor Bayne 38) Tomy Drissi.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    For what it’s worth to anyone to here, and maybe to spark some conversation….

    I performed my Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations) and calculated projected fantasy points for the race tomorrow. As such, below are my Draftkings (don’t play FanDuel NASCAR) fantasy rankings by both projected points and value based on salary.

    For obvious reasons, I did not include my actual projected fantasy points or other relevant metrics in the rankings below. :)

    DK Fantasy Point Ranking

    1) Kevin Harvick 2) Kurt Busch 3) Clint Bowyer 4) Joey Logano 5) Martin Truex Jr 6) Kyle Busch 7) Denny Hamlin 8) Jimmie Johnson 9) Aric Almirola 10) Brad Keselowski 11) Jamie McMurray 12) Ryan Blaney 13) Kyle Larson 14) Ryan Newman 15) Kasey Kahne 16) Chase Elliott 17) Daniel Suarez 18) Erik Jones 19) Paul Menard 20) AJ Allmendinger 21) Austin Dillon 22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr 23) Ty Dillon 24) Justin Marks 25) Michael McDowell 26) David Ragan 27) Alex Bowman 28) Chris Buescher 29) William Byron 30) Matt DiBenedetto 31) Bubba Wallace 32) Cole Whitt 33) Cody Ware 34) Parker Kligerman 35) Chris Cook 36) Trevor Bayne 37) Gray Gaulding 38) Tomy Drissi.

    DK Driver Value Ranking

    1) Kurt Busch 2) Clint Bowyer 3) Joey Logano 4) Aric Almirola 5) Kevin Harvick 6) Denny Hamlin 7) Jamie McMurray 8) Kasey Kahne 9) Martin Truex Jr 10) Jimmie Johnson 11) Kyle Busch 12) Ryan Newman 13) Brad Keselowski 14) Ryan Blaney 15) Daniel Suarez 16) Paul Menard 17) Erik Jones 18) Austin Dillon 19) Justin Marks 20) Ty Dillon 21) Chase Elliott 22) David Ragan 23) AJ Allmendinger 24) Michael McDowell 25) Kyle Larson 26) Ricky Stenhouse Jr 27) Matt DiBenedetto 28) Chris Buescher 29) Cole Whitt 30) William Byron 31) Bubba Wallace 32) Cody Ware 33) Alex Bowman 34) Chris Cook 35) Parker Kligerman 36) Gray Gaulding 37) Trevor Bayne 38) Tomy Drissi.

    Are the runs weighted on race history, results this year, practice speeds, single lap along with five and ten lap?

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Are the runs weighted on race history, results this year, practice speeds, single lap along with five and ten lap?

    Regarding the six (6) factors you list…. Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes…. I also use several more metrics as well….

    Metrics (and Monte Carlo simulations… “probability simulations”) are weighted, and therefore firmly based, in correlation-to-actual-results; here primarily for Sonoma and road courses overall….

    To make my lineups, I will now use chaos mathematics to account for DNFs, bad luck, and overall NASCAR randomness at Sonoma mostly, but also Watkins Glen….

    Hope this makes sense.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Regarding the six (6) factors you list…. Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes…. I also use several more metrics as well….

    Metrics (and Monte Carlo simulations… “probability simulations”) are weighted, and therefore firmly based, in correlation-to-actual-results; here primarily for Sonoma and road courses overall….

    To make my lineups, I will now use chaos mathematics to account for DNFs, bad luck, and overall NASCAR randomness at Sonoma mostly, but also Watkins Glen….

    Hope this makes sense.

    Thanks! I was just trying to figure out what is driving Hamlin to not be ranked ahead of Truex and especially Ky Busch as well as why AJ was ranked so low as I thought he would be closer to Larson ranking and surprised Larson is not ranked lower. This is from the DK points rankings. Thoughts?

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Thanks! I was just trying to figure out what is driving Hamlin to not be ranked ahead of Truex and especially Ky Busch as well as why AJ was ranked so low as I thought he would be closer to Larson ranking and surprised Larson is not ranked lower. This is from the DK points rankings. Thoughts?

    It’s all in the numbers….

    Sonoma is not a dominator race…. obviously given the lack of laps fewer dominator points are available….

    But it’s also not a huge place differential race (ranking 17th of 23 tracks in green flag passes per 100 miles and 21st of 23 tracks in quality passes per 100 miles). Yes, pit strategy plays a role, but this is accounted for in my chaos mathematics “randomness” calculations….

    Regarding the game-script (race-script) components of my model…. here are the important Sonoma metrics. Importantly, these are rankings not the actual numbers…. My model incorporates actual numbers to project everything below….

    FYI. If you recall, when I was starting the NASCAR thread each week I would incorporate these in the header….

    Sonoma Raceway Rankings – from Highest to Lowest

    1 of 23 tracks – % of drivers finishing lead lap
    23 of 23 tracks – % of drivers DNF – Any
    18 of 23 tracks – % of drivers DNF – Crash
    21 of 23 tracks – % of drivers DNF – Mechanical
    22 of 23 tracks – race cautions per 100 miles
    21 of 23 tracks – lead changes per 100 miles
    17 of 23 tracks – green passes per 100 miles
    21 of 23 tracks – quality passes (passes in the Top 15 running positions) per 100 miles

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    It’s all in the numbers….

    Sonoma is not a dominator race…. obviously given the lack of laps fewer dominator points are available….

    But it’s also not a huge place differential race (ranking 17th of 23 tracks in green flag passes per 100 miles and 21st of 23 tracks in quality passes per 100 miles). Yes, pit strategy plays a role, but this is accounted for in my chaos mathematics “randomness” calculations….

    Regarding the game-script (race-script) components of my model…. here are the important Sonoma metrics. Importantly, these are rankings not the actual numbers…. My model incorporates actual numbers to project everything below….

    FYI. If you recall, when I was starting the NASCAR thread each week I would incorporate these in the header….

    Sonoma Raceway Rankings – from Highest to Lowest

    1 of 23 tracks – % of drivers finishing lead lap
    23 of 23 tracks – % of drivers DNF – Any
    18 of 23 tracks – % of drivers DNF – Crash
    21 of 23 tracks – % of drivers DNF – Mechanical
    22 of 23 tracks – race cautions per 100 miles
    21 of 23 tracks – lead changes per 100 miles
    17 of 23 tracks – green passes per 100 miles
    21 of 23 tracks – quality pass per 100 miles

    Thanks, sounds great! Did you find any variance in rankings when run at 2500, 5000 or 7500 or were the results similar?

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

  • FanDuel

    Get 1-month of RotoGrinders Premium for FREE (a ~$40value) by signing up through one of our links!

    Learn More
  • DraftKings

    Sign up for DraftKings using a RotoGrinders link & receive our DraftKings Premium content FREE for 1 month. That’s a ~$40 value! No DraftKings promo code necessary!

    Learn More
  • FantasyDraft

    FantasyDraft strives to put players first, with a mission to “provide a fun and fair experience for all.” To this end, the site has a well-built, easy-to-use interface and a the first of its kind in offering “Rake-Free” fantasy contests.

    Learn More

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler