NASCAR FORUM

Comments

  • jt77316

    Sonoma Raceway
    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Friday, June 22
    2:40-3:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice, FS1
    5:40-6:55 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice, FS1

    Saturday, June 23
    2:45 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Busch Pole Award qualifying, FS1

    PRESS PASS (Watch live)
    3:45 p.m.: Post-Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series qualifying

    Sunday, June 24
    3 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350, FS1

    Race Details

    — 110 Laps – 218.9 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 25; Stage 2: Lap 26-60; Stage 3: Lap 61-110

    Sonoma Raceway–

    — 1.99 mile 12 turn road course
    Pit Road/Stalls: 16′ wide by 29′ long, 58′ wide
    Pit Road Speed: 40 mph
    Pace Car Speed: 45 mph

    Sonoma-
    Recent Winners
    Kevin Harvick
    Tony Stewart
    Kyle Busch
    Carl Edwards
    Martin Truex, Jr.

    Last Five (5) DK Pt Leaders

    — 06/23/2013: Martin Truex, Jr. SP:14 FP:1 Fast Laps: 10 Laps Led 51 (76.75 DK Pts) Kurt Busch SP:7 FP:4 Fast Laps: 21 Laps Led: 15 (57.25 DK Pts)
    — 06/22/2014: Kasey Kahne SP:30 FP:6 Fast Laps: 5 Laps Led: 0 (64.5 DK Pts) Jeff Gordon SP:15 FP:2 Fast Laps: 6 Laps Led: 3 (58.75 DK Pts)
    — 06/28/2015: Kurt Busch SP:2 FP:2 Fast Laps: 20 Laps Led: 43 (62.75 DK Pts) Kyle Busch SP:11 FP:1 Fast Laps: 4 Laps Led: 17 (62.25 DK Pts)
    — 06/26/2016: Tony Stewart SP:10 FP:1 Fast Laps: 8 Laps Led: 22 (64.5 DK Pts) Kevin Harvick SP:25 FP:6 Fast Laps:7 Laps Led:3 (61.25 DK Pts)
    — 06/25/2017: Brad Keselowski. SP:24 FP:3 Fast Laps: 5 Laps Led: 17 (67.75 DK Pts) Kevin Harvick SP:12 FP:1 Fast Laps:5 Laps Led: 24 (65.50 DK Pts)

    Last Five (5) FanDuel Pt Leaders

    — 06/23/2013: Martin Truex, Jr. – (65.6 Pts) Jeff Gordon (55.4 Pts)
    — 06/22/2014: Kasey Kahne – (59 Pts) Carl Edwards (58.1 Pts)
    — 06/28/2015: Kyle Busch – (60.7 Pts) Kevin Harvick (55.5 Pts)
    — 06/26/2016: Tony Stewart – (60.7 Pts) Kevin Harvick (56.8 Pts)
    — 06/25/2017: Kevin Harvick – (61.9 Pts) Brad Keselowski (61.7 Pts)

    Data from Last 5 Sonoma Races

    Driver Rating:
    1. Kurt Busch – 107.1
    2. Kevin Harvick – 106
    3. Jimmie Johnson – 104.4
    4. Martin Truex, Jr. – 102.9
    5. AJ Allmendinger – 94.1

    Laps Led:
    1. Martin Truex, Jr. – 76
    2. AJ Allmendinger – 60
    3. Kurt Busch – 58
    4. Jimmie Johnson – 58
    5. Kevin Harvick – 50

    Fastest Laps:
    1. Kurt Busch – 53
    2. Martin Truex Jr. – 49
    3. Kevin Harvick – 33
    4. Jimmie Johnson – 32
    5. AJ Allmendinger – 25

    Race Data, News, Information, and Weather

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Stephen Young – Rotogrinders Lead NASCAR Analyst
    Kevin Roth – Rotogrinders Chief Meteorologist

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Thanks, sounds great! Did you find any variance in rankings when run at 2500, 5000 or 7500 or were the results similar?

    Iterations?

    If that’s what you’re referring to…..

    Then no idea, I set up my simulations to run until I get reach a certain (pre-established by me) confidence level, and confidence interval…. For predictable races this is usually around 8,000 but for races with more randomness, it’s up to 10,000….

    As such, when I say “10,000 iterations” that is an approximate number…. Though rarely do I go much higher than that….

    Thus, assuming I’m responding to the question I think you’re asking, I never see results at 2,500, 5,000, or 7,500 iterations…..

    Remember, the simulations “run a simulated race,” around 10,000 times in this instance… and then apply the correct Draftkings scoring based on the results….. I.e. it doesn’t run various projected scores for each driver….. If this makes sense…..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Iterations?

    If that’s what you’re referring to…..

    Then no idea, I set up my simulations to run until I get reach a certain (pre-established by me) confidence level, and confidence interval…. For predictable races this is usually around 8,000 but for races with more randomness, it’s up to 10,000….

    As such, when I say “10,000 iterations” that is an approximate number…. Though rarely do I go much higher than that….

    Thus, assuming I’m responding to the question I think you’re asking, I never see results at 2,500, 5,000, or 7,500 iterations…..

    Remember, the simulations “run a simulated race,” around 10,000 times in this instance… and then apply the correct Draftkings scoring based on the results….. I.e. it doesn’t run various projected scores for each driver….. If this makes sense…..

    You got it! Thanks!

  • gje627

    I’ll likely be MIA until after the race starts tomorrow….

    So, in advance….

    Good Luck Tomorrow Everyone !!! :)

  • gje627

    Oh…..

    Sorry, one more thing…..

    Based on salary, these are “roughly” the amount of points you will need from each driver to be included on a cashing GPP lineup on Draftkings…. By rough I mean that one driver vastly over-performing can certainly compensate for another driver who under-performs by the same amount.

    Hence, for the lower-priced drivers you can get away with substantially fewer points if your higher-priced drivers perform exceedingly well…. I.e. the “value plays” could score significantly fewer points….

    For “somewhat” more precise numbers see my lineup totals at the end of this post….

    Kevin Harvick, 76.05 DK FPts
    Kurt Busch, 55.9 DK FPts
    Clint Bowyer, 60.45 DK FPts
    Joey Logano, 61.75 DK FPts
    Martin Truex Jr, 69.55 DK FPts
    Kyle Busch, 72.8 DK FPts
    Denny Hamlin, 59.15 DK FPts
    Jimmie Johnson, 57.85 DK FPts
    Aric Almirola, 53.3 DK FPts
    Brad Keselowski, 63.7 DK FPts
    Jamie McMurray, 49.4 DK FPts
    Ryan Blaney, 54.6 DK FPts
    Kyle Larson, 68.9 DK FPts
    Ryan Newman, 47.45 DK FPts
    Kasey Kahne, 42.9 DK FPts
    Chase Elliott, 56.55 DK FPts
    Daniel Suarez, 48.75 DK FPts
    Erik Jones, 46.8 DK FPts
    Paul Menard, 44.2 DK FPts
    AJ Allmendinger, 52 DK FPts
    Austin Dillon, 46.15 DK FPts
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr, 44.85 DK FPts
    Ty Dillon, 37.05 DK FPts
    Justin Marks, 33.8 DK FPts
    Michael McDowell, 38.35 DK FPts
    David Ragan, 37.7 DK FPts
    Alex Bowman, 50.7 DK FPts
    Chris Buescher, 39.65 DK FPts
    William Byron, 40.95 DK FPts
    Matt DiBenedetto, 32.5 DK FPts
    Bubba Wallace, 42.25 DK FPts
    Cole Whitt, 34.45 DK FPts
    Cody Ware, 29.25 DK FPts
    Parker Kligerman, 31.85 DK FPts
    Chris Cook, 31.2 DK FPts
    Trevor Bayne, 35.75 DK FPts
    Gray Gaulding, 29.9 DK FPts
    Tomy Drissi, 30.55 DK FPts

    Regarding the total number of points to GPP cash on Draftkings, roughly 315 to 325 FPts should suffice…. Most likely, 340+ FPts to win a GPP….

    Thus, for those of you doing your own projections, if you calculate driver ceilings as well, a rudimentary way of deciding whether to include a lineup in a contest would be to make sure your total ceiling projections for that lineup equal or exceed these numbers.

  • wormworth

    Why is Justin Marks so high on your rankings?

  • gje627

    @wormworth said...

    Why is Justin Marks so high on your rankings?

    Good question !!!

    Value, value, value….

    The reason the question is so great…. Is that in my rankings, I don’t list projected fantasy points…. Thus, for hyperbole purposes, if I had Harvick (highest priced driver) scoring over 90 FPts and Kyle Busch (2nd highest priced driver) to both score over 80 FPts I would need some serious value…. and Justin Marks could fit the bill and allow me to include Kurt Busch or Bowyer as well….

    Thus, these are just rankings…. With the exception of guys like Tomy Drissi, etc. anybody on my rankings list (regardless of how low) may actually be in one of my lineups, depending on how much I need to fit in the expensive guys…..

    EDIT: Also, for additional reasoning, see my previous explanations…. Those who know me, know that I’m an extreme numbers player, so almost universally everything I do is based firmly in the numbers….

  • wormworth

    Ok. Thanks

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    You have to go back to 2010 to find positive results for the majority of the drivers who start T10 in this race. All other years it is basically 2-3 drivers tops who start in T10 who increase position. In all races I looked at there was no reason to pick the pole sitter and only once the driver who started second finished first.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    You have to go back to 2010 to find positive results for the majority of the drivers who start T10 in this race. All other years it is basically 2-3 drivers tops who start in T10 who increase position. In all races I looked at there was no reason to pick the pole sitter and only once the driver who started second finished first.

    Agree… 95%.

    But because of the lack of dominator points and the difficulty scoring place differential points, finishing position is huge…. Thus, a consideration must be salary too. A low-priced driver starting near the front and staying there could still be on a winning lineup, even if they drop a few places from their original position….

    I say this every week, but one (1) or two (2) drivers does not make a winning lineup…. A winning lineup is one where all six (6) drivers (or five (5) on FanDuel) make sense together based on a number of factors….

    But yes, I think for the most part you are exactly correct here….

  • tamparoor

    I’m new to NASCAR this will be my first time playing reading these responses I can’t even understand what u guys are talking about lol

    I like Kurt Busch-Paul Menard-jj-logano

    Am I close to what you guys are thinking?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Agree… 95%.

    But because of the lack of dominator points and the difficulty scoring place differential points, finishing position is huge…. Thus, a consideration must be salary too. A low-priced driver starting near the front and staying there could still be on a winning lineup, even if they drop a few places from their original position….

    I say this every week, but one (1) or two (2) drivers does not make a winning lineup…. A winning lineup is one where all six (6) drivers (or five (5) on FanDuel) make sense together based on a number of factors….

    But yes, I think for the most part you are exactly correct here….

    Totally agree on low priced drivers comment….👍

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tamparoor said...

    I’m new to NASCAR this will be my first time playing reading these responses I can’t even understand what u guys are talking about lol

    I like Kurt Busch-Paul Menard-jj-logano

    Am I close to what you guys are thinking?

    Ku Busch and Logano yes….Menard would be what Gje was referring to and will be a lower owned GPP play…JJ is a risky play, only used in GPP but could be good and should be lower owned.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Ku Busch and Logano yes….Menard would be what Gje was referring to and will be a lower owned GPP play…JJ is a risky play, only used in GPP but could be good and should be lower owned.

    Agree, totally with Coop….

    Just remember, for a DK GPP in a six (6) driver lineup, you will probably need a combined starting position sum total of between 100 and 140 (just add all the starting positions together) to get sufficient coverage of drivers throughout the field…. This is what the Sonoma races between 2005 and 2017 say is ideal….

  • tristanwolf

    @gje627 said...

    Agree, totally with Coop….

    Just remember, for a DK GPP in a six (6) driver lineup, you will probably need a combined starting position sum total of between 100 and 140 (just add all the starting positions together) to get sufficient coverage of drivers throughout the field…. This is what the Sonoma races between 2005 and 2017 say is ideal….

    hah i just checked my placeholder lineup and it added up to 121. so maybe i’m in the ballpark. thanks for all the info again guys!

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Agree, totally with Coop….

    Just remember, for a DK GPP in a six (6) driver lineup, you will probably need a combined starting position sum total of between 100 and 140 (just add all the starting positions together) to get sufficient coverage of drivers throughout the field…. This is what the Sonoma races between 2005 and 2017 say is ideal….

    Interesting you mention this….I was making some lineups and came across a thought I am pretty sure you said a few weeks ago..I remember you saying, pretty sure at least, be careful on the drivers you select that start close to each other as they are battling for the same upside/finishing position and it’s difficult to get them to both have the finishes you desire. It’s more likely to benefit picking drivers starting 5-10 positions away from each other as not only will it benefit your results but help with ownership. Not the exact words but the jist of what you were saying, correct? Using that same theory this week?

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Interesting you mention this….I was making some lineups and came across a thought I am pretty sure you said a few weeks ago..I remember you saying, pretty sure at least, be careful on the drivers you select that start close to each other as they are battling for the same upside/finishing position and it’s difficult to get them to both have the finishes you desire. It’s more likely to benefit picking drivers starting 5-10 positions away from each other as not only will it benefit your results but help with ownership. Not the exact words but the jist of what you were saying, correct? Using that same theory this week?

    Yes, though I use “adjacent” drivers…. Here are the minimum and maximum “adjacent” drivers using a two (2) driver range for DK to use at Sonoma for 38 starting positions…..

    Obviously, if it says “use no more than 0-2 drivers” you can use both….

    Again, this optimal….. This is part of my chaos mathematics technique. I go to extreme and calculate all ranges of two (2) drivers through all ranges of 38 drivers, since this a 38 driver race.

    … Again, obviously, for tomorrow with 38 drivers, the number of drivers that can be used for a 38 driver range is:

    Starting Position 1-38, use no more than 6-6 drivers

    Thus, in my optimizer (for a 40 driver race, maximum allowable by NASCAR in 2018) there are up to 780 range-of-driver “constraints” that are calculated…. Lineups that don’t meet these constraints are not included in my entries.

    Starting Position 1-2, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 2-3, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 3-4, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 4-5, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 5-6, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 6-7, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 7-8, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 8-9, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 9-10, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 10-11, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 11-12, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 12-13, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 13-14, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 14-15, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 15-16, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 16-17, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 17-18, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 18-19, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 19-20, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 20-21, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 21-22, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 22-23, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 23-24, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 24-25, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 25-26, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 26-27, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 27-28, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 28-29, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 29-30, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 30-31, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 31-32, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 32-33, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 33-34, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 34-35, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 35-36, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 36-37, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 37-38, use no more than 0-1 drivers

  • gje627

    Actually, above….

    “use no more than” may be more easily understand to read as “use between” …..

    Sorry everyone….

  • futoo

    Why don’t odds change in nascar after qualifying?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Yes, though I use “adjacent” drivers…. Here are the minimum and maximum “adjacent” drivers for DK to use at Sonoma for 38 starting positions…..

    Obviously, if it says “use no more than 0-2 drivers” you can use both….

    Again, this optimal….. This is part of my chaos mathematics technique. I go to extreme and calculate all range of two (2) drivers through all ranges of 38 drivers, since this a 38 driver race.

    Starting Position 1-2, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 2-3, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 3-4, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 4-5, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 5-6, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 6-7, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 7-8, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 8-9, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 9-10, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 10-11, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 11-12, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 12-13, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 13-14, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 14-15, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 15-16, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 16-17, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 17-18, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 18-19, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 19-20, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 20-21, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 21-22, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 22-23, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 23-24, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 24-25, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 25-26, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 26-27, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 27-28, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 28-29, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 29-30, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 30-31, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 31-32, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 32-33, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 33-34, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 34-35, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 35-36, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 36-37, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 37-38, use no more than 0-1 drivers

    Excellent! Thanks!

  • wormworth

    Of the 29 races at sonoma, positions 10-14 have won this race 8 times, which is 28%. While from positions 1-4 have won this race 13 times, which is 45%.

  • gje627

    @wormworth said...

    Of the 29 races at sonoma, positions 10-14 have won this race 8 times, which is 28%. While from positions 1-4 have won this race 13 times, which is 45%.

    FYI: Range 10-14 includes five (5) drivers…. 10, 11, 12, 13, 14…. While range 1-4 only includes four (4) drivers…. 1, 2, 3, 4…. Just saying, because I’m not sure if you intended to do this.

    But I absolutely agree with the point you are making. :)

  • wormworth

    You are correct. 1-5 have won this race 15 out of 29 times, 52% of the time.. 6-10 have won this race 5 out of 29 times, 17% of the time.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @wormworth said...

    Of the 29 races at sonoma, positions 10-14 have won this race 8 times, which is 28%. While from positions 1-4 have won this race 13 times, which is 45%.

    And you can be Larry Mac and go with trends….two of the last thirteen races have been won starting 1-4, 15%….

    Edit..1-5 would be the same %.

  • wormworth

    Larry Mac’s my hero.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @wormworth said...

    Larry Mac’s my hero.

    If he is you should enjoy this…podcast at bottom of interview..

    https://racer.com/2018/06/21/interview-larry-mcreynolds-pounds-the-pavement/

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler