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  • jt77316

    Texas Motor Speedway

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 3:05 PM (FS1)
    — Qualifying: Friday, 7:40 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 9:05 AM (FS1)
    — Practice 3: Saturday, 11:30 AM (FS1)
    — Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, Sunday, 3:00 PM (FOX)

    Race Details

    — XX Drivers Entered; 334 Laps, 501 miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 85; Stage 2: Lap 86 – 170; Stage 3: Lap 171 – 334
    — Expected Fuel/Pit Window – xx-xx Laps

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate.

    Texas Motor Speedway –

    1.5 mile intermediate track

    Comparable Tracks

    Kentucky, Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, Atlanta, Chicagoland, Michigan and Homestead.

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 11/06/2016: Carl Edwards
    — 04/09/2017: Jimmie Johnnson
    — 11/05/2017: Kevin Harvick
    — 04/08/2018: Kyle Busch
    — 11/04/2018: Kevin Harvick

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    10/30/2016: Joey Logano (113.50 DK FPts) – Joey Logano (87.1 FD FPts)
    04/02/2017: Jimmie Johnson (97.00 DK FPts) – Jimmie Johnson (89.7 FD FPts)
    10/29/2017: Martin Truex, Jr. (105.25 DK FPts) – Matt Kenseth (88.8 FD FPts)
    03/26/2018: Kyle Busch (117.00 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (91.5 FPts)
    10/28/2018: Kevin Harvick (133.75 DK FPts) – Kevin Harvick (95.4 FD FPts)

    Data from Last 5 Texas Races

    Driver Rating:

    1. Kevin Harvick – 129.0
    2. Joey Logano – 112.1
    3. Ryan Blaney – 107.6
    4. Martin Truex, Jr. – 107.3
    5. Brad Keselowski – 98.2

    Laps Led:

    1. Kevin Harvick – 379
    2. Joey Logano – 271
    3. Martin Truex, Jr. – 222
    4. Ryan Blaney – 188
    5. Kyle Busch – 125

    Fastest Laps:

    1. Kevin Harvick – 250
    2. Kyle Busch – 139
    3. Martin Truex, Jr. – 137
    4. Ryan Blaney – 105
    5. Kyle Larson – 99

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather
    Scott Pagejayski

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Wowza…what a mess of qualifying after nascar said they would clean it up. All this has led to a mess of a starting lineup, one i can honestly say I have never seen like before. On top of all this nascar has added pbj to the top tier of the surface for the first time at Texas. This is done to help the top lane come in better and add more side by side racing. Currently watching the truck race and it is a wreck fest so far. Cars keep getting outside of the pbj and driving up the track, some into the wall. Will have to see if this continues in the xfinity race tomorrow. Bowman only took one lap in qualifying and ended up in the wall.

    With all that said lineup construction is going to be interesting. Quite possibly lead to more than usual dup lineups with so many cars 8k and below starting closer to front while the more expensive guys starting mid to rear.

    MATH is going to be more important than any week so far this year this week.

  • ljason8eg

    Can’t wait till NASCAR comes to its senses and changes back to single car qualifying.

  • dbullsfan

    @Cooper08 said...

    Wowza…what a mess of qualifying after nascar said they would clean it up. All this has led to a mess of a starting lineup, one i can honestly say I have never seen like before. On top of all this nascar has added pbj to the top tier of the surface for the first time at Texas. This is done to help the top lane come in better and add more side by side racing. Currently watching the truck race and it is a wreck fest so far. Cars keep getting outside of the pbj and driving up the track, some into the wall. Will have to see if this continues in the xfinity race tomorrow. Bowman only took one lap in qualifying and ended up in the wall.

    With all that said lineup construction is going to be interesting. Quite possibly lead to more than usual dup lineups with so many cars 8k and below starting closer to front while the more expensive guys starting mid to rear.

    MATH is going to be more important than any week so far this year this week.

    We will see how practice and the xfinity race go but one note about the ph1 that nascar added, Kyle Busch said it is really aided by warmer temps and it is only.supposed to be in the 50’s this weekend so it might not even work or have the affect Nascar wants. I dont know enough about how it all works just going off what KB was saying.

  • starstx

    Is anyone else tired of the qualifying s*** show? When you have drivers playing mini games because of the way it is set up and for Nascar to not have the foresight to see it coming, it is a complete joke. They can keep trying to modify the rules all they want to try to salvage group qualifying this season but it seems futile. Eat some crow and go back to single car qualifying.

  • starstx

    Now that I got that out of my system, with so many high priced guys with lower starting spots has me wondering if this will spread ownership around a bit. Seems like we usually have a couple to a few drivers that spike in ownership due to place differential potential. But this week there are a ton of drivers with more potential for PD than usual. Does this track usually endure many wrecks? Qualifying speeds were around 12mph slower average … not sure the impact overall and as noted above … it is cooler out this weekend. It all adds up to I have no idea what to make of this race now. I got an idea of drivers to make my short list but so many question marks. Happy roster construction everyone. GJE ever coming back?

  • starstx

    delete double post

  • mizzoutigers48

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    I’m locking in the 48. It’s risky, but he’s been fast all weekend and looked great in 2nd practice. Looks to have really good long-run speed, and at his salary I think he’s a great play. I think his performance so far this year keeps people off him while they try to fit in the SHR guys who are starting further back.

  • dbullsfan

    @mizzoutigers48 said...

    I’m locking in the 48. It’s risky, but he’s been fast all weekend and looked great in 2nd practice. Looks to have really good long-run speed, and at his salary I think he’s a great play. I think his performance so far this year keeps people off him while they try to fit in the SHR guys who are starting further back.

    He may dominate but Jimmie and Hendrick outside of a few Chase races have been shit so, ill pass untill he is around or under 7k and definitely not from the pole. He may lead 10-15 laps (although i doubt it) but what are the realistic chances he even finishes top 10

  • mizzoutigers48

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @dbullsfan said...

    He may dominate but Jimmie and Hendrick outside of a few Chase races have been shit so, ill pass untill he is around or under 7k and definitely not from the pole. He may lead 10-15 laps (although i doubt it) but what are the realistic chances he even finishes top 10

    That’s how I hope people feel. I said I know it is risky, but he has shown consistent speed in a week everyone is going to roll dice to pick the right people starting in the 20s. At 8k. Hendrick showed good speed last week, they are starting to figure it out. Risky, yes, but if he comes in under 20% in GPP and leads 75-100 laps with top-5 finish you’re in great shape. He had best 5-lap, 10-lap and 15-lap avg in practice today.

  • mizzoutigers48

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    This week is a shitshow. Roll the dice with the myriad of cars starting in the 20s or get a guy who has been fastest all weekend and starting upfront at 8K even. I think it is more than worth the risk.

  • WVUDoss

    You guys are going after the wrong devil, here. Group qualifying is not the problem, it’s this God forsaken package that allows drafting to become all-important to qualifying laps on several of our current tracks.

    Group qualifying worked well before they neutered the engines and made the cars aero-grip monsters.

  • starstx

    @WVUDoss said...

    You guys are going after the wrong devil, here. Group qualifying is not the problem, it’s this God forsaken package that allows drafting to become all-important to qualifying laps on several of our current tracks.

    Group qualifying worked well before they neutered the engines and made the cars aero-grip monsters.

    I hear you. It goes hand in hand though. If you are going to have this package, then it makes having group qualifying asinine. And from the races I have seen, you are right … sure … the cars may be a little closer and more cars on the lead lap but it has not made racing more exciting. Passing so far seems a little more difficult, maybe not as dramatic of an impact but it does not seem it made it any easier. So far, the majority of the drivers appear to be right in the effect of this package vs Nascar. Something fun to do … play a drinking game during the broadcast and take a drink every time they say “dirty air”. You be lit before end of stage 2

  • starstx

    @dbullsfan said...

    He may dominate but Jimmie and Hendrick outside of a few Chase races have been shit so, ill pass untill he is around or under 7k and definitely not from the pole. He may lead 10-15 laps (although i doubt it) but what are the realistic chances he even finishes top 10

    I think there is a good chance he surpasses his value. Killed it in practices and qualifying. Very possible he could lead enough laps and finish Top 10. Very possible he could not lead enough laps and finish outside the top 10. Classic risk vs reward but not a complete fade for me.

  • nickfromcwe

    • 679

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #53

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @starstx said...

    I think there is a good chance he surpasses his value. Killed it in practices and qualifying. Very possible he could lead enough laps and finish Top 10. Very possible he could not lead enough laps and finish outside the top 10. Classic risk vs reward but not a complete fade for me.

    Jimmie Johnson’s sole purpose on earth is to make us believe he has enough speed to do something only to finish 22nd.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @starstx said...

    Very possible he could lead enough laps and finish Top 10.

    How many laps would he need to lead in order to pay off if he finishes 10th? 8th? 5th? We will assume he has 15 fastest laps.

  • Toddalan2286

    @Cooper08 said...

    How many laps would he need to lead in order to pay off if he finishes 10th? 8th? 5th? We will assume he has 15 fastest laps.

    Based on history in his price range he will need around 60 points to be optimal. Assuming he finishes 10th (25 points I think 🤔 ) plus 15 fast laps (32.5 points) he’d need to lead around 100 laps. That’d be 57.5 points total.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    Based on history in his price range he will need around 60 points to be optimal. Assuming he finishes 10th (25 points I think 🤔 ) plus 15 fast laps (32.5 points) he’d need to lead around 100 laps. That’d be 57.5 points total.

    👍 Now for those wanting to play Johnson ask yourself can he lead 100 laps? Perhaps he will get more fastest laps than 15, probably but he would still need to lead a bunch of laps. I won’t fade him but………my big worry with Johnson is two fold, one can the race stay green for several laps at the beginning and two after watching the truck and xfinity race I can see him getting up in the track compound that’s been added to the track and losing positions, especially after he already lost the lead. He is def a risky, scary, driver this week.

  • dbullsfan

    If Jimmie gets 15 Dom points and finishes 10th…Kurt has to finish 16th, Bowyer 13th, Larson 12, Almirola 12, Stenhouse 10, Blaney 8….Even if Jimmie is only say 12%…how high do you have to go with his ownership to make it worth it

  • starstx

    Great stuff fellas … agree … risky as hell but certainly possible … I will have him in a few of my lineups. This has all the makings of a possible crapshoot if we get some wrecks (I am looking at you Stenson). Too many variables between the new package, out of the norm qualifying positions, added track compound. Have less confidence in more drivers than usual.

  • starstx

    Hopefully we can get some more banter on this forum … seems lighter than usual especially compared to last year since gje had to step away. Not sure if everyone wants to keep their cards close to the vest but always interested to hear others take and opinions. Soooo aside from Kyle Busch and that monster price tag and Harvick who we liking this week? Hard to pass up on Kurt Busch. I do not know what to make of Chase Elliott this week. A couple lower price guys that grab my eye … or more my gut are DiBenedetto and Ragan.

  • starstx

    @nickfromcwe said...

    Jimmie Johnson’s sole purpose on earth is to make us believe he has enough speed to do something only to finish 22nd.

    Btw … this had me cracking up 😂 … I will be thinking of this post probably all race long

  • dbullsfan

    @starstx said...

    Hopefully we can get some more banter on this forum … seems lighter than usual especially compared to last year since gje had to step away. Not sure if everyone wants to keep their cards close to the vest but always interested to hear others take and opinions. Soooo aside from Kyle Busch and that monster price tag and Harvick who we liking this week? Hard to pass up on Kurt Busch. I do not know what to make of Chase Elliott this week. A couple lower price guys that grab my eye … or more my gut are DiBenedetto and Ragan.

    I used to participate a lot more in this thread forum but get lost in the chat in Stevie’s room (premium) and I honestly forget sometimes to look back at the forum. a lot of good info comes from these threads though.

  • mizzoutigers48

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @dbullsfan said...

    If Jimmie gets 15 Dom points and finishes 10th…Kurt has to finish 16th, Bowyer 13th, Larson 12, Almirola 12, Stenhouse 10, Blaney 8….Even if Jimmie is only say 12%…how high do you have to go with his ownership to make it worth it

    Johnson will be in winning GPP lineup

  • Benf15harp

    @mizzoutigers48 said...

    Johnson will be in winning GPP lineup

  • smokeyca14

    @mizzoutigers48 said...

    Johnson will be in winning GPP lineup

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