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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA
    Daytona International Speedway

    Saturday, July 1st
    7:30pm Est

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Jacobkaiser1325 said...

    I feel stupid going LaJoie when I could have Larson

    I know, right now I have way too much Larson and Truex and am trying to cut it down but your stuck either going for a similar price point qualified much higher or a lesser driver qualified around the same spot. Like I know for game theory I should be fading Truex for Paul Menard and Dinger more but it is really hard to pull the trigger.

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    on a similar note to that last post, is there any chance that Nascar is getting sharp enough that people are in on game theory and Larson/Truex will only be about 35% instead of 50+ which is what I think they will be.

  • DefinitelyMiami

    Picking menard or Aj instead of truex doesn’t make someone sharp. Picking someone like a Hamlin or Kenseth might though

  • depalma13

    Heading over to the poker room before I head to the track.

  • rog11sm

    I am still lost on trying to build these lineups. So many different ways to go.

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @rog11sm said...

    I am still lost on trying to build these lineups. So many different ways to go.

    Right. You can pretty much roster anyone so I wouldnt be too concerned about “chalk”

  • ClemsonAce

    any drivers at the back to clearly right off?

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @depalma13 said...

    Heading over to the poker room before I head to the track.

    Heading to the parking lot now, hoping to catch some of the xfinity race now sure how the rules work on that with admission

  • depalma13

    @dbullsfan said...

    Heading to the parking lot now, hoping to catch some of the xfinity race now sure how the rules work on that with admission

    Xfinity tickets have priority for that race than have to give up seats for cup race.

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @ClemsonAce said...

    any drivers at the back to clearly right off?

    Can tell you went to Clemson thats for sure

  • fenway2015

    like busch, harvick,dillon and reagan tonight

  • jason18801999

    I’m down here at the track. It’s crazy. Stevie is stripping nude and Bullsfan is throwing dollar bills at him. Swore I just saw another guy trying to give one of them a rim job.

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    Are Ragan and Menard good at place racing? Thinking of shifting some of my T. Dillon and Dinger over to them because I feel like I have too much of them

  • depalma13

    Weather is a mess all around the track.

  • yellowdart24

    Anyone starting 25th on back is in play. Only guys I would consider starting better than 25th would be Kurt 15th, Kyle 16th, Dillon 19th, Larson 21st, Newman 22nd, and Menard 24th. I think most are catching on to how to play plate races but I know some will be tempted to play Jr. Brad, Logano, Harvick and anyone else in the top 10 but simply put… don’t be that stupid. The odds of Jr. being a must own in gpps is about 5% while his ownership will probably be around 20%-25% if not more. I remember Jr being over 40% owned starting at the front in a couple plate races last year just to see him wreck and finish with -30 points. Same applies to everyone else in the top 10. Now yes, it COULD happen where someone in the top 10 avoids the wrecks and has a good finish and ends up being in a winning gpp lineup but again, you’re taking the negative expected value choice. DO NOT BE AFRAID to leave over $5,000 of salary cap on the table if not more. Simply stacking the back without using Truex could be a great gpp strategy. My advice for building multiple lineups would be this. Try to narrow down your driver pool to about 10-12 drivers and focus everything on them. It’s best not to get cute with having a little of everyone bc you’ll end up not having enough exposure to the great plays. With all of that said I will say this… At Talladega this year, I did have a little of Kyle Busch who started 11th I think. The reason I did this was because he did have some place diff upside if he could finish top 5 plus Logano started right behind him and had double the ownership so it was a great pivot off of him. Of course it helps when Kyle finishes 2nd and Logano wrecks but that’s the point of this race. There are some decent drivers starting around 11th thru 14th that will get overlooked and could win. I’m not saying that it’s the optimal strategy but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. But for the most part, just build a bunch of lineups around guys starting 25th or worse plus Larson and you should be good. There should be more fish than usual with this being a big race and DK pushing people towards it. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking “I think Harvick could get overlooked so I’m going to have a bunch of him.” If they start in the top 10, DO NOT USE THEM! It comes down to the odds of no one wrecking vs. a couple of 5+ car wrecks and if the wrecks happen, your driver starting 33rd could still get positive points while your driver starting 5th will get -20 or worse. Good luck!

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Raining at the track now, xfinity race under a delay as of now no threat to delay cup race though

  • yellowdart24

    The big race should be okay according to the hourly forecast. It calls for mostly clear skies starting at 7PM and they’ve been know to not even start this race until close to 10PM.

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    Is it a bad idea to go Larson/Truex in one lineup?

  • Genghis_Khan

    Where’s Bill? I wanna hear his thoughts.

  • billholler

    @Genghis_Khan said...

    Where’s Bill? I wanna hear his thoughts.

    Had to work 16 hours yesterday and about 14 today when I finally go home so haven’t been on here much.

    I don’t see how anyone that knows what they are doing can roster Jr. He will be highly owned thanks to the casual fan being influenced by the media frenzy. With his price and starting 1st, he has to win and lead at least 20ish laps. I think if he lead 10 laps and finished 8th-10th, that would be a good race for him but terrible for DFSers. If you are rostering him and happy if he finishes in the top 10, then you are counting on a huge wreck and he just happens to be one of the few high priced drivers to make it through and you are rostering a ton of scrubs.

    As for me, I have a ton of Hamlin, Logano, Dillon and Bubba Wallace. Have about 40% each of Larson and Truex even though they should be uber chalk. Cheap plays I have a lot of Sieg, Sadler, Ty Dillon of course and Gaughan (still think he’s terrible but think he can avoid wrecks).

    As with every week, full fade on Jr and Danica. They both made it a little easier this week by qualifying 1st and 10th.

  • billholler

    I also think everyone is putting too much emphasis on last year’s race and thinking they have to leave 5k+ in salary on the table. The better drivers have better equipment and more likely to avoid wrecks than the guys driving an 8 cylinder Pinto.

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    Bill, I’m only making a couple lineups like usual, probably just like 3, would it be a really bad idea to go Wallace in all 3, or should I pivot to Ragan, Menard Hamlin or Newman in one of them?

  • Genghis_Khan

    @billholler said...

    Had to work 16 hours yesterday and about 14 today when I finally go home so haven’t been on here much.

    I don’t see how anyone that knows what they are doing can roster Jr. He will be highly owned thanks to the casual fan being influenced by the media frenzy. With his price and starting 1st, he has to win and lead at least 20ish laps. I think if he lead 10 laps and finished 8th-10th, that would be a good race for him but terrible for DFSers. If you are rostering him and happy if he finishes in the top 10, then you are counting on a huge wreck and he just happens to be one of the few high priced drivers to make it through and you are rostering a ton of scrubs.

    As for me, I have a ton of Hamlin, Logano, Dillon and Bubba Wallace. Have about 40% each of Larson and Truex even though they should be uber chalk. Cheap plays I have a lot of Sieg, Sadler, Ty Dillon of course and Gaughan (still think he’s terrible but think he can avoid wrecks).

    As with every week, full fade on Jr and Danica. They both made it a little easier this week by qualifying 1st and 10th.

    Nice, thanks for your input!

  • Genghis_Khan

    @billholler said...

    I also think everyone is putting too much emphasis on last year’s race and thinking they have to leave 5k+ in salary on the table.

    I had the EXACT same thought. Is spending most of one’s salary now contrarian?

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @Jacobkaiser1325 said...

    Bill, I’m only making a couple lineups like usual, probably just like 3, would it be a really bad idea to go Wallace in all 3, or should I pivot to Ragan, Menard Hamlin or Newman in one of them?

    Jacob, Have you ever watched a Nascar race before? No offense but you come off like you havent

    To answer your question: It’s not wise to go all in on a driver at a restrictor plate track

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