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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES AT SONOMA
    Sonoma

    Sunday, June 25th
    3:00pm Est

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    Happy Billy Johnson week, can’t wait to see his price this weekend.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @stevietpfl said...

    Happy Billy Johnson week, can’t wait to see his price this weekend.

    No love for Boris Said…..will be interesting to see how he does, very good road course driver in bad equipment. Can the driver overcome the equipment? I think a T20 is possible.

  • mwgdfs

    Sonoma!!! Is Dinger 10k? lol

  • billholler

    @mwgdfs said...

    Sonoma!!! Is Dinger 10k? lol

    Always love for Dinger on road courses and he almost always disappoints.

  • dbullsfan

    Yea depending on price of much rather Billy J, than Dinger

  • rlmc8402

    @billholler said...

    Always love for Dinger on road courses and he almost always disappoints.

    Dinger can pull one out of his arse once in a while! I wont bet the house on him but he will be in a roster or 10.

  • rlmc8402

    On last weeks race (to digress) was it just me or did it seem like EVERYONE had Ty Dillon, Kyle Busch, Larson and Truex? I had them and finished 3518th…@billholler had them and finished 489th, @mallen21 had them and finished 255th, and the winner(s) had them…crazy I only made $20??

  • billholler

    @rlmc8402 said...

    @billholler had them and finished 489th

    My highest one in the Beast was 107th and was only 4 points out of 1st. Just saying.

  • wormworth

    I used to hate road courses but now I really appreciate them and with the added stage racing I expect a lot of beat up, banged up cars Sunday…can’t wait.

  • gje627

    @stevietpfl said...

    Happy Billy Johnson week, can’t wait to see his price this weekend.

    Agree.

    Pumped about my Billy Johnson, Alon Day, Josh Bilicki, Tommy Regan stack :)

  • gje627

    …. Also, Trevor Bayne “baby-watch” is over…. Baby-boy Levi was born yesterday Monday and Fox Sports is reporting Bayne plans to race this weekend.

  • billholler

    @gje627 said...

    …. Also, Trevor Bayne “baby-watch” is over…. Baby-boy Levi was born yesterday and Fox Sports is reporting Bayne plans to race this weekend.

    Not trying to nit pick, but pretty sure she had a C-section Monday.

    Anyway, not getting all the love for Billy “don’t call me white shoes” Johnson. Never been in a cup race. Highest Xfinity finish was 8th and that was 5 years ago.

  • wormworth

    Just finished watching Sonoma race from last year, not one rookie finished in top 20. Edwards car was awesome but I think I’m going to avoid 19 car with a rookie in it.

  • dbullsfan

    @billholler said...

    Not trying to nit pick, but pretty sure she had a C-section Monday.

    Anyway, not getting all the love for Billy “don’t call me white shoes” Johnson. Never been in a cup race. Highest Xfinity finish was 8th and that was 5 years ago.

    It’s like with any race it is going to be dependent on pricing and qualifying, if Johnson is sub 7k and qualifies outside top 20 I think he will be a great play

  • gje627

    Salaries out. Notably….

    Billy Johnson $7,700
    Kevin O’Connell $4,800
    Alon Day $4,700
    Josh Bilicki $4,600
    Tommy Regan $4,500

    Also, as expected, AJ Allmendinger 6th highest at $9,500

  • rlmc8402

    @billholler said...

    My highest one in the Beast was 107th and was only 4 points out of 1st. Just saying.

    That just doesn’t seem right…its crazy!

  • rlmc8402

    @gje627 said...

    Also, as expected, AJ Allmendinger 6th highest at $9,500

    Dinger at $9,500 is nuts but I like him in this race!

  • rlmc8402

    Question for all you seasoned veterans…in NASCAR place differential is usually huge. In a race where it is very hard to pass, how do you approach? Front qualifiers could stay up front all day?

  • celtics2448

    @rlmc8402 said...

    Question for all you seasoned veterans…in NASCAR place differential is usually huge. In a race where it is very hard to pass, how do you approach? Front qualifiers could stay up front all day?

    Typically at road courses you’d have teams playing the two stop strategy and succeeding which would create place differential, but the stages will likely kill that strategy if the race stays green. Since this race last year was easily the most fixed NASCAR race I’ve ever seen in 20 years as a fan, and Clint Bowyer’s rant last week and subsequent media attention on debris cautions, i’m a believer that this thing will stay green unless there’s a real problem on the track. That being said, yes, i hedge all my teams pretty well, but i’m going to have way more drivers who qualify up front than normal.

  • rlmc8402

    @celtics2448 said...

    Since this race last year was easily the most fixed NASCAR race I’ve ever seen in 20 years as a fan

    Ha are you trying to say NASCAR wanted “whiny” Stewart to win?? 2 debris cautions then the #95 car stopping…not suspicious at all in my opinion…lol. By that logic then Jr. should win Sunday…:-)

  • wormworth

    @rlmc8402 said...

    Ha are you trying to say NASCAR wanted “whiny” Stewart to win?? 2 debris cautions then the #95 car stopping…not suspicious at all in my opinion…lol. By that logic then Jr. should win Sunday…:-)

    They will give Daytona July 4th race to Jr.

  • gje627

    @celtics2448 said...

    i’m a believer that this thing will stay green unless there’s a real problem on the track.

    The last 12 Sonoma races…. Obviously, these races were all “pre-NASCAR-stages” so the end of a stage did not result in any of the cautions below…. (note: the number of lead changes does NOT indicate the number of unique drivers who led the race, i.e., the same driver can lead, fall back, and then lead again).

    2005: 110 total laps; 7 lead changes; 8 cautions; 18 caution laps; 16.36% of total race laps under caution.
    2006: 110 total laps; 9 lead changes; 7 cautions; 12 caution laps; 10.91% of total race laps under caution.
    2007: 110 total laps; 11 lead changes; 7 cautions; 14 caution laps; 12.73% of total race laps under caution.
    2008: 112 total laps; 5 lead changes; 6 cautions; 14 caution laps; 12.50% of total race laps under caution.
    2009: 113 total laps; 10 lead changes; 7 cautions; 20 caution laps; 17.70% of total race laps under caution.
    2010: 110 total laps; 12 lead changes; 7 cautions; 14 caution laps; 12.73% of total race laps under caution.
    2011: 110 total laps; 12 lead changes; 5 cautions; 17 caution laps; 15.45% of total race laps under caution.
    2012: 112 total laps; 8 lead changes; 2 cautions; 7 caution laps; 6.25% of total race laps under caution.
    2013: 110 total laps; 10 lead changes; 7 cautions; 19 caution laps; 17.27% of total race laps under caution.
    2014: 110 total laps; 11 lead changes; 6 cautions; 19 caution laps; 17.27% of total race laps under caution.
    2015: 110 total laps; 9 lead changes; 5 cautions; 21 caution laps; 19.09% of total race laps under caution.
    2016: 110 total laps; 12 lead changes; 4 cautions; 10 caution laps; 9.09% of total race laps under caution.

  • gje627

    Fun Fact: Calculating total Draftkings fantasy points for the 12 Sonoma races since 2005, the historically best starting position for high fantasy point purposes is 24th.

    Since 2005, the 24th start position has scored 497 DK points (average of 41.24 DK points per race) …. That’s 58.25 fantasy points higher than the second highest starting position and 4.06% of all fantasy points awarded between 2005 and 2016 at Sonoma.

    Also, pretty surprising how some of the other starting positions fared….

    Obviously, this doesn’t mean that you should roster whomever starts 24th…. But by analyzing actual points by starting position, you can get a pretty good idea of each starting position’s opportunity to accumulate points.

  • wormworth

    Nice info gje267

  • gje627

    Thanks

    …..

    Fun Fact #2

    Sonoma ranks 3rd in highest number of green flag passes with 25.09 passes per 100 miles, following only Talladega and Daytona.

    Does this mean that passing at Sonoma is easy?

    Absolutely not. Instead, the data indicates that most passes are the result of unique pit strategies employed by many of the drivers running at the back of the pack at one point of a race or another.

    I.e. one car slows down to “short-pit” during a green flag run and the car(s) behind her/him passes the now slower car … cha-ching, 1 green flag pass!

    Further “i.e” the overall result is a lot of teams are on a lot of different pit cycles so many cars are consistently moving-up and moving-down in race order, resulting in a lot of “easy” green flag passes.

    Thus, the drivers who move-up permanently and ultimately score high at race end are generally lucky, as they’ve managed, at least once, to time their pit sequence on the right side of a caution.

    Note: Green flag passes are not to be confused with end-race place differential…. However, this does demonstrate that “creative” teams can, indeed, move from the back of the pack at Sonoma and race for the win.

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