NASCAR FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sun, Feb 18
    2:30 PM ET

    DAYTONA 500
    Daytona International Speedway

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – Nascar strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Kevin

    I have my favorites, and the percentages of each. 80 percent JJ, 80 percent Suarez, 70 percent Bubba, 50percent Kes and Logano, 40 percent Byron. I also like LaJoie as a salary saver, sleeper. If you’d ask me who was going to win, outright, I would say it’s a tossup between Bubba and Suarez. Both would be firsts, but I have that feeling that something huge is going to happen! Good luck boys!

  • depalma13

    25% of my lineups were made by using a deck of cards. I discarded all of the face cards and assigned qualifiers 1-10 hearts, 11-20 diamonds, 21-30 spades, and 31- 40 clubs. Drew a card and that’s who I took. Needless to say, I have some very interesting lineups.

    Let’s go Gilliland!

    I’m off to Daytona. Good Luck Everyone!

  • MD0530

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Fantrax.com has season long NASCAR games that you can customize. I believe you can set them up to use Yahoo and Foxsports.com’s scoring since both of those sites cancelled their games this year.

  • MelonFarmer

    Should we be concerned with Larson’s practice speeds? Understand the upside of his starting position, obviously. But if he can’t pass anyone because he’s slow, should we fade him?

  • depalma13

    @MelonFarmer said...

    Should we be concerned with Larson’s practice speeds? Understand the upside of his starting position, obviously. But if he can’t pass anyone because he’s slow, should we fade him?

    No

  • MelonFarmer

    @depalma13 said...

    No

    lol OK then.
    Did he come up in your deck of cards? haha

    Have fun in Daytona.

  • billholler

    @MelonFarmer said...

    Should we be concerned with Larson’s practice speeds? Understand the upside of his starting position, obviously. But if he can’t pass anyone because he’s slow, should we fade him?

    It’s weird how regular NASCAR DFSers never seem to want to help out new or newish players. Not a single serious mention of Daytona strategy from anyone that’s been doing this for a while. Restrictor plate racing from a DFS standpoint is all about who can avoid accidents and give you the most place differential points. I looked at all the GPPs from plate races in last 2 years and NONE of the winning lineups had the actual race winner in them. Just for example, Logano winning the race will get you 2 less points than Larson finishing 15th and at similar salaries. That’s of course disregarding laps lead and fastest laps. There will probably be 10+ different drivers with laps lead and fastest laps are often totally random since everyone is going roughly the same speed for most of the race.

    As for LU construction, if you try to use all your salary today, you aren’t going to win and if you cash, you will be tied with about 25 people. If you pick drivers that are starting in the top 10, you are probably donating. I have seen projected ownership for today’s race from 2 different sources and found them both to be laughable and I hope they are close in regards to the top 15ish starting positions. I mentioned Tom Bowles in a previous post and he is the only one that I’ve seen mention that you try to avoid drivers starting in the top 15 or so spots. Of course he followed that up with saying his top 5 DFS picks were starting in the top 15.

    Daytona you are just waiting for “the big one” to happen. Actually a fun drinking game would be to take a shot or down a beer every time an announcer says “the big one”. From a DFS standpoint, the winning LU always has 6 drivers that starts in the back of the pack and manages to avoid “the big one”.

    Last year’s winning GPP LU for Daytona 500 with starting and finishing positions:
    START CURRENT
    #47 AJ Allmendinger 38 3
    #12 Ryan Blaney 36 2
    #62 Brendan Gaughan 39 11
    #95 Kasey Kahne 26 7
    #21 Paul Menard 33 5
    #78 Martin Truex Jr 35 13
    TOTAL SALARY USED: $42,900

  • fenway2015

    like keslowski truex jr and kahne today

  • billholler

    And please don’t actually take my advice in regards to the drinking game because you may die before the race ends.

  • billholler

    One last comment before I leave the interwebs for a while, there is only about a 5% chance that what I mentioned above won’t happen. There of course is always that slim chance that the front runners manage to stay in the front and avoid the big one. Not likely though. Assuming that doesn’t happen, you should have a huge advantage over the casual player that just sticks in some lineups based on drivers they know while they try to use all of their salary. I assume drivers like Logano, Harvick and Hamlin will all be 20+% owned. If they don’t win and lead a bunch of laps, your LU won’t win.

  • yellowdart24

    I agree with billholler. I’ve been doing this for 3 years now. My driver pool will consist of using guys from Truex on back. Cash team will be guys 31st on back (cash team builds itself imo but I won’t post it do to RG not liking lineups published). You could maybe throw in a McMurray or Menard and pair them with 5 drivers that’s are super safe in the back. Do not worry about spending salary at all. Plenty of my lineups will leave 2k+ on the table. Now if you’re making 100 lineups you can take a chance on the super crap drivers and hope they avoid the wreck and finish top 20. These would be guys that I consider worse drivers than Gilliland who I’ll actually have decent shares on. It’s really just about picking your driver pool and rotating them in and out. Now if Logano or Hamlin or Chase or any of the guys up front lead a whole bunch and win then no, you’re not going to win a gpp but you should still cash easily. The only way this strategy fails is if there is a big one and it involves all the place diff cars you want to use. If you’re not using Brad Larson JJ you’re doing it wrong. They don’t need to be in every lineup but if Larson finishes top 10 he will beat every driver up front that didn’t get a ton of bonus points which at Daytona just means led laps. If you’re worried about back up cars… DO NOT WORRY! Who cares how fast Brad JJ or Larson are in practice. Like bill said you will see 20%+ on drivers starting in the top ten and you’ve should laugh all the way to the bank when it happens. Logano wrecks and he’s getting huge negatives. Yesterday Dillon started 38th and wrecked and still got 15 points. Logano got crushed with negatives. I’ve seen some mention Wallace Jr as a good play… please stop! At best he finishes where he starts and very likely he drops or be caught up in a wreck. Yes, Wallace Jr. could end up being a gpp winning play but he’s really not someone you should be wasting a lineup on.

  • ElSlappo

    I maxed the $3 and $1 GPPs and my LU’s range from $1k to $13,100 left on the table, nearly no exposure to anyone starting in the top 20 based on recommendations I have read. I haven’t played much NASCAR, dabbled a bit last year.

  • billholler

    @yellowdart24 said...

    Who cares how
    fast Brad JJ or Larson is. Like bill said you will see 20%+ on drivers starting in the top ten and you’ve should laugh all the way to the bank when it happens. Logano wrecks and he’s getting huge negatives. Yesterday Dillon started 38th and wrecked and still got 15 points. Logano got crushed with negatives.

    Talladega I believe it was Gaughan who crashed but finished 19th and was in the winning GPP lineup.

  • ClemsonAce

    20 LU’s… 17 of them… salary’s from 34 – 49k…. put a max on no more than 1-2 inside the top 20 after researching the last several finishes, in line with the post above. I did hedge with a 3 Lu’s picking 60%+ out of the top 20 starting spots

  • jwayne1976

    I’d only add to what billholler said by noting that basically everyone is equally susceptible to wrecking, and historically about 40% of the cars are involved in wrecks, so do not go all in on any single driver if you are entering multiple lineups (more than 2). Probably best to cap exposure at 60% or so if you’re running 5-20 lineups.

  • yellowdart24

    @jwayne1976 said...

    I’d only add to what billholler said by noting that basically everyone is equally susceptible to wrecking, and historically about 40% of the cars are involved in wrecks, so do not go all in on any single driver if you are entering multiple lineups (more than 2). Probably best to cap exposure at 60% or so if you’re running 5-20 lineups.

    I would mainly agree with that but I think I’ll be higher than that with Brad Larson and JJ. If they don’t wreck, all three should compete for the win and will get huge points for place diff and beat everyone else unless someone dominates the race and wins. I do get that if they wreck, it ruins a lot of lineups but if they are part of the big one, they are still beating everyone else that wrecked because their 15 points is better than all of those negatives that a guy like Clint Bowyer could get if someone used him. If you’re really just trying to win a gpp, then I think 60% max is okay. But if you’re just trying to make a good profit, you can go higher than that with Brad Larson and JJ.

  • diddy3667

    does anyone know where you can find the actual starting running order for the 500 after the backup cars go to the back? no one seems to list it out. I’m assuming they go to the back in the order that they qualified but it doesn’t say that anywhere

    if you have any insight let me know

  • yellowdart24

    I don’t know if such a thing exists but jayski.com is a good place to see everyone who is going to the back… also, you should not care if a car is going to the back at Daytona. They could easily be in the top 15 after 10 laps.

  • tristanwolf

    @diddy3667 said...

    does anyone know where you can find the actual starting running order for the 500 after the backup cars go to the back? no one seems to list it out. I’m assuming they go to the back in the order that they qualified but it doesn’t say that anywhere

    if you have any insight let me know

    the actual starting order is the number next to their name on dk.

  • Luctyl99

    I like David Ragan but his 15th place starting position just isn’t doing it for me..

  • Yombo

    gonna try to play way more races this year, but i do always play the tilt that is daytona

    gonna go heavy on jj/brad/larson, then working in quite a bit of truex/kahne/almirola, then just a bunch of random guys like byron/gilliland/suarez and a few of the other cheap punts

    i’ll keep my strategy sound of stacking the back and then sit and pray, knowing as long as the strategy is right, i dont care who wrecks

  • malickiville

    Learning the NASCAR dfs thing—-Is someone like Marks a good play? Basically a waste to start anyone in top 15-20, does that seem like the best strategy from what I’ve read on here? Appreciate any pointers, I’m throwing entries in smaller GPP to see what happens!

  • kirby34

    Byron/McMurray or Patrick/Truex in gpps?

  • yellowdart24

    Marks is okay I guess but I won’t be using him. You’ll need to be making a crap top of lineups to get down to him.

  • diddy3667

    actually someone answered my question on page 3 of the comments, thanks

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