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  • ifthethunder

    Saturday, Feb. 27 4:30 pm E.T. XFIN: Contender Boats 250

    Sunday, Feb. 28 3:30 pm E.T. CUP: Dixie Vodka 400
    ~

  • gje627

    @boilermakerbeef said...

    So would you swap Hamlin out of gpp, cash, both , or neither?

    Both … Hamlin is now an awful GPP play and suddenly the worst (yes 38 out of 38) cash play on the entire slate.

  • mbunner23

    @gje627 said...

    Both … Hamlin is now an awful GPP play and suddenly the worst (yes 38 out of 38) cash play on the entire slate.

    Rank your top 5 cash plays.

  • gje627

    Rank your top 5 cash plays.

    In order:

    1) Tyler Reddick
    2) William Byron
    3) Chase Briscoe
    4) Matt DiBenedetto
    5) Kyle Busch

    Byron and Briscoe are close and could easily be flip-flopped.

  • jt77316

    Welp I settled for Harvick in cash and I drastically lowered my GPP ownership. Based on what GJE said, my GPP ownership may not even be low enough. I still think Denny can win, he is just gonna leave a lot of points on the table not being able to lead right off the bat.

  • yisman

    my debate is Suarez vs. Alfredo

    wish I didn’t have to use one but I need a punt play.

    If I use Hamlin I could then use Stenhouse/Custer/Newman over Suarez/Alfredo but I’m not sure I want them either.

  • mbunner23

    @yisman said...

    my debate is Suarez vs. Alfredo

    wish I didn’t have to use one but I need a punt play.

    Same. I ended up with Suarez but don’t feel overly great about it.

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    Welp I settled for Harvick in cash and I drastically lowered my GPP ownership. Based on what GJE said, my GPP ownership may not even be low enough. I still think Denny can win, he is just gonna leave a lot of points on the table not being able to lead right off the bat.

    Yeah … don’t get me wrong. I think Hamlin can still have an excellent race and possibly even win or contend for the win. The insurmountable obstacle, of course, his fantasy goodness rests soley on his ability to lead tons laps and winning the race. It’s a lot different starting in the front, in clean air, and getting a lot of easy laps led points to offset the lack of place differential points than it is driving through the Busch brothers, Truex, Larson, Harvick, Logano … all while doing so with negative place differential points.

  • gje627

    I like Suarez much, much, much more than Alfredo (another overhyped driver? … for whatever reason) … even given the starting position differential.

    Suarez is in the same ride Bell was in last year when Bell made the optimal at this same race (okay yes … Suarez is no Bell … but Alfredo is also no Suarez … and Suarez is in far superior equipment).

  • ifthethunder

    @gje627 said...

    I like Suarez much, much, much more than Alfredo (another overhyped driver? … for whatever reason) … even given the starting position differential.

    Suarez is in the same ride Bell was in last year when Bell made the optimal at this same race (okay yes … Suarez is no Bell … but Alfredo is also no Suarez … and Suarez is in far superior equipment).

    I agree for that very reason. But…anyone can get wrecked. (Reminded of that once again yesterday, sigh.) So for me it made sense to have some of each. And to go for the double punt, too.

    As long as one (or both) finish the race, they should pay off their salaries.
    ~

  • blackdirkdiggler

    Just read the news hamlin and bowman sent to the back 20 min before the start.Have both of them. I see you have to check nascar news like nba news. My nascar day is done. Back to sunday night nba.

  • nohitter48

    Data Grinder

    • 2020 NASCAR Live Finalist

    Who had Buescher dom on their nascar bingo sheet this week? #bringbackpractice

  • ifthethunder

    @nohitter48 said...

    Who had Buescher dom on their nascar bingo sheet this week? #bringbackpractice

    Not I. And otoh, Chase Briscoe is dragging butt. Still almost have a race left, tho.
    ~

  • gje627

    @ifthethunder said...

    Not I. And otoh, Chase Briscoe is dragging butt. Still almost have a race left, tho.
    ~

    Yeah … Briscoe got torn-up early in the race.

  • ifthethunder

    @gje627 said...

    Yeah … Briscoe got torn-up early in the race.

    Ryan Newman is doing a lot better than I thought he would, I have zero. Maybe I can jinx him by mentioning this.
    ~

  • depalma13

    I just had a very nice day. No wins but several top 10’s.

  • ifthethunder

    @depalma13 said...

    I just had a very nice day. No wins but several top 10’s.

    Congrats! I finished 2nd in a forum contest behind a guy who played Hamlin. We both had Byron and Reddick, but he had Newman.
    ~

  • gje627

    DK NASCAR CUP —- HOMESTEAD-MIAMI OPTIMAL/TOP 25 LINEUPS

    RANK FPTS SALARY LINEUP
    ———- ————- ————— —————————————————————————————-
    01 409.75 49800 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    02 405.60 49400 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    03 403.80 49100 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    04 403.25 49100 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    05 403.15 50000 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Alex Bowman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    06 401.70 47800 Michael McDowell Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    07 399.85 49600 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    08 399.80 48900 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    09 399.10 48700 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    10 397.30 48400 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    11 397.05 47400 Daniel Suarez Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    12 396.65 49300 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Alex Bowman Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    13 395.70 48400 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Ricky Stenhouse. Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    13 395.70 49200 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    15 395.20 49200 Daniel Suarez Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    15 395.20 47100 Michael McDowell Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    17 394.30 49500 Michael McDowell Chris Buescher Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    18 393.90 48900 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    19 393.35 48900 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    20 393.30 48200 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    21 393.25 49800 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Alex Bowman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    22 392.00 50000 Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    23 391.45 50000 Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    24 391.30 49800 Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    25 391.05 48800 Daniel Suarez Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex

    ——

  • nohitter48

    Data Grinder

    • 2020 NASCAR Live Finalist

    Rank DK Pts Salary
    1 409.75 49800 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Kurt Busch Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    2 405.6 49400 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Austin Dillon Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    3 403.8 49100 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Ross Chastain Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    4 403.25 49100 William Byron Tyler Reddick Kyle Larson Kurt Busch Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    5 403.15 50000 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Alex Bowman Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    6 401.7 47800 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Ryan Newman Chris Buescher Michael McDowell
    7 400.25 48900 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Chase Briscoe Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    8 399.85 49600 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Kurt Busch Ryan Newman Michael McDowell
    9 399.1 48700 William Byron Tyler Reddick Kyle Larson Austin Dillon Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    10 397.3 48400 William Byron Tyler Reddick Kyle Larson Ross Chastain Ryan Newman Chris Buescher

    My formatting is poo but your lineup ranks up there are incorrect gje.

  • gje627

    @nohitter48 said...

    Rank DK Pts Salary
    1 409.75 49800 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Kurt Busch Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    2 405.6 49400 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Austin Dillon Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    3 403.8 49100 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Ross Chastain Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    4 403.25 49100 William Byron Tyler Reddick Kyle Larson Kurt Busch Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    5 403.15 50000 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Alex Bowman Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    6 401.7 47800 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Ryan Newman Chris Buescher Michael McDowell
    7 400.25 48900 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Chase Briscoe Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    8 399.85 49600 William Byron Tyler Reddick Martin Truex Jr Kurt Busch Ryan Newman Michael McDowell
    9 399.1 48700 William Byron Tyler Reddick Kyle Larson Austin Dillon Ryan Newman Chris Buescher
    10 397.3 48400 William Byron Tyler Reddick Kyle Larson Ross Chastain Ryan Newman Chris Buescher

    My formatting is poo but your lineup ranks up there are incorrect gje.

    Yeah, I saw that right away and corrected (my optimizer ignores Truex and Stenhouse when they have “, Jr.” at the end of the names. Getting rid of the apostrophe fixes it and I didn’t do that when I first ran.

    Are your numbers from a specific contest? … My numbers are the best overall regardless of whether or not a certain lineup appeared in a specific contest.

    The reason I ask is that at least one of our numbers is still different (looks like your #7 is my #8, with the same drivers and total salary but different score).

    EDIT: Here’s what’s interesting. DK has Chase Briscoe with 1 fast lap. Racing Reference (owned by NASCAR) has Briscoe with 0 fast laps. Also, the official scoring sheet directly from NASCAR, has Briscoe with 0 fast laps …. For what it’s worth I’m going to trust NASCAR numbers over numbers provided by DK’s stats providers as NASCAR’s numbers are the official numbers. While I’ve only noticed Briscoe, I have to imagine that there may be other differences as well.

  • gje627

    FYI: I compared all DK scores with scoring based on both Racing Reference and the official NASCAR race box score (I have access to this). Interestingly, out of the 38 drivers in today’s race, 7 drivers had different scores on DK than the calculated score derived from the official NASCAR box score. In each case, the scoring difference was +/-0.45 meaning a DK appears incorrectly given a driver credit for a single fast lap when this driver did not have one or, conversely, not given a driver a fast lap when in fact NASCAR awarded the driver one.

    Below are the 7 drivers impacted. The first score to the right of the name is the driver’s score on DK and the second score in parens is the driver score based on the official NASCAR box score. While seemingly small, the swing in scoring could be as much as 0.90 fantasy points in instances where one driver was incorrectly awarded a fast lap at the expense of another driver who should have received the fast lap.

    If this scoring impacted the winnings of anybody out there, I would contact DK directly, even though I imagine the reply you will receive will be to blame their “officials scorers.”

    Anyways, here are the drivers affected:

    1) Aric Almirola — -1.55 (-2.00)
    2) Chase Briscoe — 37.45 (37.00)
    3) Cody Ware — 3.45 (3.00)
    4) Denny Hamlin — 23.35 (22.90)
    5) James Davison — -3.55 (-4.00)
    6) Justin Haley — 10.45 (10.00)
    7) Quin Houff — 9.45 (9.00)

  • ljason8eg

    @gje627 said...

    FYI: I compared all DK scores with scoring based on both Racing Reference and the official NASCAR race box score (I have access to this). Interestingly, out of the 38 drivers in today’s race, 7 drivers had different scores on DK than the calculated score derived from the official NASCAR box score. In each case, the scoring difference was +/-0.45 meaning a DK appears incorrectly given a driver credit for a single fast lap when this driver did not have one or, conversely, not given a driver a fast lap when in fact NASCAR awarded the driver one.

    Below are the 7 drivers impacted. The first score to the right of the name is the driver’s score on DK and the second score in parens is the driver score based on the official NASCAR box score. While seemingly small, the swing in scoring could be as much as 0.90 fantasy points in instances where one driver was incorrectly awarded a fast lap at the expense of another driver who should have received the fast lap.

    If this scoring impacted the winnings of anybody out there, I would contact DK directly, even though I imagine the reply you will receive will be to blame their “officials scorers.”

    Anyways, here are the drivers affected:

    1) Aric Almirola — -1.55 (-2.00)
    2) Chase Briscoe — 37.45 (37.00)
    3) Cody Ware — 3.45 (3.00)
    4) Denny Hamlin — 23.35 (22.90)
    5) James Davison — -3.55 (-4.00)
    6) Justin Haley — 10.45 (10.00)
    7) Quin Houff — 9.45 (9.00)

    I don’t know why Draftkings does this, but their stat provider awards a fastest lap on the lap immediately following the green flag (so, Lap 1 for example). NASCAR does not count this lap in their official box score, probably because a driver at the tail end of the line will always get the fast lap in this situation. There were 6 cautions plus the initial start, which explains the 7 extra fastest laps.

  • jt77316

    @gje627 said...

    DK NASCAR CUP —- HOMESTEAD-MIAMI OPTIMAL/TOP 25 LINEUPS

    RANK FPTS SALARY LINEUP
    ———- ————- ————— —————————————————————————————-
    01 409.75 49800 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    02 405.60 49400 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    03 403.80 49100 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    04 403.25 49100 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    05 403.15 50000 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Alex Bowman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    06 401.70 47800 Michael McDowell Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    07 399.85 49600 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    08 399.80 48900 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    09 399.10 48700 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    10 397.30 48400 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    11 397.05 47400 Daniel Suarez Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    12 396.65 49300 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Alex Bowman Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    13 395.70 48400 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Ricky Stenhouse. Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    13 395.70 49200 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    15 395.20 49200 Daniel Suarez Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    15 395.20 47100 Michael McDowell Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    17 394.30 49500 Michael McDowell Chris Buescher Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    18 393.90 48900 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    19 393.35 48900 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    20 393.30 48200 Chris Buescher Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    21 393.25 49800 Michael McDowell Ryan Newman Alex Bowman Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    22 392.00 50000 Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Ross Chastain Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex
    23 391.45 50000 Ryan Newman Chase Briscoe Kurt Busch Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    24 391.30 49800 Ryan Newman Ross Chastain Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Kyle Larson
    25 391.05 48800 Daniel Suarez Ryan Newman Austin Dillon Tyler Reddick William Byron Martin Truex

    ——

    Wild that Kurt having a loose wheel and pitting out of cycle let him accumulate all those fastest laps and end up in the optimal.

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    Wild that Kurt having a loose wheel and pitting out of cycle let him accumulate all those fastest laps and end up in the optimal.

    That was wild. Especially starting so high, I was surprised to see him get so many positions back. Was certain he was DOA when he had to pit.

  • gje627

    @ljason8eg said...

    I don’t know why Draftkings does this, but their stat provider awards a fastest lap on the lap immediately following the green flag (so, Lap 1 for example). NASCAR does not count this lap in their official box score, probably because a driver at the tail end of the line will always get the fast lap in this situation. There were 6 cautions plus the initial start, which explains the 7 extra fastest laps.

    Genius. Thanks for the clarification. That makes perfect sense. It’s the perfect equivalent to giving the last place driver a running head start to the start/finish line. How did you ever figure this out? NASCAR’s loop data rule not giving the slow, back markers fastest laps on starts/restarts makes perfect sense. DK’s scoring, on the other hand, makes no sense.

  • ljason8eg

    @gje627 said...

    Genius. Thanks for the clarification. That makes perfect sense. It’s the perfect equivalent to giving the last place driver a running head start to the start/finish line. How did you ever figure this out? NASCAR’s loop data rule not giving the slow, back markers fastest laps on starts/restarts makes perfect sense. DK’s scoring, on the other hand, makes no sense.

    I think I figured it out last year ago by chance. I was looking at live scoring on DK right after a restart and noticed the driver who scored the fastest lap was the guy who just got the free pass on the previous yellow, so he restarted last behind everyone else. I thought huh, that’s odd, and kept track of every fastest lap after the restarts of this particular race. It was always a guy restarting in one of the back two rows.

    From the Homestead 2021 data you posted we can see 4 slow drivers/cars that are always back there along with Hamlin (started in the back on the initial start), Briscoe (Caution 5 free pass), and Almirola (exiting pit road trying to catch the field after repairing crash damage during Caution 6). I’m kind of surprised Garrett Smithley didn’t get any fastest laps despite earning 3(!) of the possible 6 free passes!

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