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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sunday, April 2nd, 2:00pm est

    MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES AT MARTINSVILLE
    Martinsville Speedway

  • bigdaddies

    Hello, my name is What mighthave Been! Glad to meet you fellas………. Lets get at it, again!

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 919

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    Friday:

    4:35 PM MENCS QUALIFYING (MULTI-VEHICLE / THREE ROUNDS)

    Saturday:

    10:00 AM – 10:55 AM MENCS 2ND PRACTICE
    1:30 PM – 2:20 PM MENCS FINAL PRACTICE

    Sunday:

  • Whacko

    Got the Whip and Chain mentality this week……

  • mattneverwins

    polesitter will be 80%+ across the board

  • gje627

    @mattneverwins said...

    polesitter will be 80%+ across the board

    It really depends on who the pole winner is, as well as their price. For races since 2005, I calculated how the pole sitter has fared in Martinsville. Obviously, some of the races were pre-Draftkings, so I calculated Draftkings points for those years.

    Note, the driver starting on the pole finished first in Draftkings points in only 4 of 24 races since 2005.

    In other words, simply because Martinsville is a short track where passing is difficult, and significant amount of points are awarded for laps-led due to the high total number of laps, doesn’t necessarily mean the pole sitter is a shoe-in on Draftkings, though it is true they are likely to finish towards the top.

    EDIT: Given such a small sample of races, the average and median finishes for the pole sitter are not terribly meaningful. Nonetheless, here they are:

    Avg Finish Position: 7.00
    Median Finish Position: 10.83

    Avg DK Pts Rank: 5.00
    Median DK Pts Rank: 11.33

    Martinsville Pole Sitter Results: 2005-2016

    2005 Race 1
    Pole: Scott Riggs
    Finish Position: 21
    DK Points Rank: 33
    DK Total Pts: 3.00

    2005 Race 2
    Pole: Tony Stewart
    Finish Position: 2
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 159.75

    2006 Race 1
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 125.75

    2006 Race 2
    Pole: Kurt Busch
    Finish Position: 27
    DK Points Rank: 33
    DK Total Pts: 2.75

    2007 Race 1
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 4
    DK Total Pts: 91.25

    2007 Race 2
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 120.50

    2008 Race 1
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 2
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 102.50

    2008 Race 2
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 185.25

    2009 Race 1
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 4
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 109.75

    2009 Race 2
    Pole: Ryan Newman
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 8
    DK Total Pts: 48.25

    2010 Race 1
    Pole: Kevin Harvick
    Finish Position: 35
    DK Points Rank: 42
    DK Total Pts: 4.75

    2010 Race 2
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 5
    DK Total Pts: 67.00

    2011 Race 1
    Pole: Jamie McMurray
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 10
    DK Total Pts: 50.25

    2011 Race 2
    Pole: Carl Edwards
    Finish Position: 9
    DK Points Rank: 16
    DK Total Pts: 35.50

    2012 Race 1
    Pole: Kasey Kahne
    Finish Position: 38
    DK Points Rank: 43
    DK Total Pts: 21.50

    2012 Race 2
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 124.25

    2013 Race 1
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 176.00

    2013 Race 2
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 11
    DK Total Pts: 42.00

    2014 Race 1
    Pole: Kyle Busch
    Finish Position: 14
    DK Points Rank: 21
    DK Total Pts: 26.00

    2014 Race 2
    Pole: Jamie McMurray
    Finish Position: 16
    DK Points Rank: 5
    DK Total Pts: 56.50

    2015 Race 1
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 3
    DK Total Pts: 86.50

    2015 Race 2
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 37
    DK Points Rank: 7
    DK Total Pts: 48.75

    2016 Race 1
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 11
    DK Points Rank: 17
    DK Total Pts: 32.25

    2016 Race 2
    Pole: Martin Truex, Jr.
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 86.25

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @mattneverwins said...

    polesitter will be 80%+ across the board

    How highly owned were Logano and JJ in cash yesterday? Thats pretty much the highest % owned you are going to see someone ever

  • mwgdfs

    last year for the 1st race, Kyle Busch led 352 laps and won the race. He started 7th, not sure how he was in practice but that seems super hard to predict.

  • celtics2448

    Martinsville is one of the more predictable tracks in terms of picking a winning driver. Go to racing reference and check out the past winners, Hamlin and Johnson are clearly the elite drivers here with everybody else seemingly sprinkled in there. Judging by the slow start to Jimmie’s season, i’m almost willing to go all in on Johnson this weekend.

  • mattneverwins

    @gje627 said...

    It really depends on who the pole winner is, as well as their price. For races since 2005, I calculated how the pole sitter has fared in Martinsville. Obviously, some of the races were pre-Draftkings, so I calculated Draftkings points for those years.

    Note, the driver starting on the pole finished first in Draftkings points in only 4 of 24 races since 2005.

    In other words, simply because Martinsville is a short track where passing is difficult, and significant amount of points are awarded for laps-led due to the high total number of laps, doesn’t necessarily mean the pole sitter is a shoe-in on Draftkings, though it is true they are likely to finish towards the top.

    EDIT: Given such a small sample of races, the average and median finishes for the pole sitter are not terribly meaningful. Nonetheless, here they are:

    Avg Finish Position: 7.00
    Median Finish Position: 10.83

    Avg DK Pts Rank: 5.00
    Median DK Pts Rank: 11.33

    Martinsville Pole Sitter Results: 2005-2016

    2005 Race 1
    Pole: Scott Riggs
    Finish Position: 21
    DK Points Rank: 33
    DK Total Pts: 3.00

    2005 Race 2
    Pole: Tony Stewart
    Finish Position: 2
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 159.75

    2006 Race 1
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 125.75

    2006 Race 2
    Pole: Kurt Busch
    Finish Position: 27
    DK Points Rank: 33
    DK Total Pts: 2.75

    2007 Race 1
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 4
    DK Total Pts: 91.25

    2007 Race 2
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 120.50

    2008 Race 1
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 2
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 102.50

    2008 Race 2
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 185.25

    2009 Race 1
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 4
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 109.75

    2009 Race 2
    Pole: Ryan Newman
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 8
    DK Total Pts: 48.25

    2010 Race 1
    Pole: Kevin Harvick
    Finish Position: 35
    DK Points Rank: 42
    DK Total Pts: Race 4.75

    2010 Race 2
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 5
    DK Total Pts: 67.00

    2011 Race 1
    Pole: Jamie McMurray
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 10
    DK Total Pts: 50.25

    2011 Race 2
    Pole: Carl Edwards
    Finish Position: 9
    DK Points Rank: 16
    DK Total Pts: 35.50

    2012 Race 1
    Pole: Kasey Kahne
    Finish Position: 38
    DK Points Rank: 43
    DK Total Pts: 21.50

    2012 Race 2
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 124.25

    2013 Race 1
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 176.00

    2013 Race 2
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 11
    DK Total Pts: 42.00

    2014 Race 1
    Pole: Kyle Busch
    Finish Position: 14
    DK Points Rank: 21
    DK Total Pts: 26.00

    2014 Race 2
    Pole: Jamie McMurray
    Finish Position: 16
    DK Points Rank: 5
    DK Total Pts: 56.50

    2015 Race 1
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 3
    DK Total Pts: 86.50

    2015 Race 2
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 37
    DK Points Rank: 7
    DK Total Pts: 48.75

    2016 Race 1
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 11
    DK Points Rank: 17
    DK Total Pts: 32.25

    2016 Race 2
    Pole: Martin Truex, Jr.
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 86.25

    I should’ve been more specific. The polesitter is likely to be very high owned if they have good pace in practice to match, and the polesitter isn’t a crazy surprise.

  • bigdaddies

    @gje627 said...

    It really depends on who the pole winner is, as well as their price. For races since 2005, I calculated how the pole sitter has fared in Martinsville. Obviously, some of the races were pre-Draftkings, so I calculated Draftkings points for those years.

    Note, the driver starting on the pole finished first in Draftkings points in only 4 of 24 races since 2005.

    In other words, simply because Martinsville is a short track where passing is difficult, and significant amount of points are awarded for laps-led due to the high total number of laps, doesn’t necessarily mean the pole sitter is a shoe-in on Draftkings, though it is true they are likely to finish towards the top.

    EDIT: Given such a small sample of races, the average and median finishes for the pole sitter are not terribly meaningful. Nonetheless, here they are:

    Avg Finish Position: 7.00
    Median Finish Position: 10.83

    Avg DK Pts Rank: 5.00
    Median DK Pts Rank: 11.33

    Martinsville Pole Sitter Results: 2005-2016

    2005 Race 1
    Pole: Scott Riggs
    Finish Position: 21
    DK Points Rank: 33
    DK Total Pts: 3.00

    2005 Race 2
    Pole: Tony Stewart
    Finish Position: 2
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 159.75

    2006 Race 1
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 125.75

    2006 Race 2
    Pole: Kurt Busch
    Finish Position: 27
    DK Points Rank: 33
    DK Total Pts: 2.75

    2007 Race 1
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 4
    DK Total Pts: 91.25

    2007 Race 2
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 120.50

    2008 Race 1
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 2
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 102.50

    2008 Race 2
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 185.25

    2009 Race 1
    Pole: Jeff Gordon
    Finish Position: 4
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 109.75

    2009 Race 2
    Pole: Ryan Newman
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 8
    DK Total Pts: 48.25

    2010 Race 1
    Pole: Kevin Harvick
    Finish Position: 35
    DK Points Rank: 42
    DK Total Pts: Race 4.75

    2010 Race 2
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 5
    DK Total Pts: 67.00

    2011 Race 1
    Pole: Jamie McMurray
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 10
    DK Total Pts: 50.25

    2011 Race 2
    Pole: Carl Edwards
    Finish Position: 9
    DK Points Rank: 16
    DK Total Pts: 35.50

    2012 Race 1
    Pole: Kasey Kahne
    Finish Position: 38
    DK Points Rank: 43
    DK Total Pts: 21.50

    2012 Race 2
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 124.25

    2013 Race 1
    Pole: Jimmie Johnson
    Finish Position: 1
    DK Points Rank: 1
    DK Total Pts: 176.00

    2013 Race 2
    Pole: Denny Hamlin
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 11
    DK Total Pts: 42.00

    2014 Race 1
    Pole: Kyle Busch
    Finish Position: 14
    DK Points Rank: 21
    DK Total Pts: 26.00

    2014 Race 2
    Pole: Jamie McMurray
    Finish Position: 16
    DK Points Rank: 5
    DK Total Pts: 56.50

    2015 Race 1
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 3
    DK Points Rank: 3
    DK Total Pts: 86.50

    2015 Race 2
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 37
    DK Points Rank: 7
    DK Total Pts: 48.75

    2016 Race 1
    Pole: Joey Logano
    Finish Position: 11
    DK Points Rank: 17
    DK Total Pts: 32.25

    2016 Race 2
    Pole: Martin Truex, Jr.
    Finish Position: 7
    DK Points Rank: 2
    DK Total Pts: 86.25

    Thank you for sharing sir!

  • mwgdfs

    next weeks prize pool for $4 and $27 kinda disappointing

  • Whacko

    @mwgdfs said...

    next weeks prize pool for $4 and $27 kinda disappointing

    Think it might be due to MLB possibly?

  • wiesnerx0042

    so how is the 5 minute repair rule fairing out for everyone so far? on sunday when brad went through the grass there i thought it was over for him already

    need to be even more careful to not crash out..it feels like even a scratch can be detrimental too your guys

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @wiesnerx0042 said...

    so how is the 5 minute repair rule fairing out for everyone so far?

    could be a huge issue this weekend

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @DefinitelyMiami said...

    could be a huge issue this weekend

    Damage at Marinsville is typically minimal due to lower speeds and minimal banking, yes it will happen but shouldn’t be an issue to fix.
    Also look for qualifying to be cancelled, field set by points, 100% chance of rain Friday.

  • bigdaddies

    @Cooper08 said...

    Damage at Marinsville is typically minimal due to lower speeds and minimal banking, yes it will happen but shouldn’t be an issue to fix.
    Also look for qualifying to be cancelled, field set by points, 100% chance of rain Friday.

    That would be an interesting development………..

  • baggerly

    @Cooper08 said...

    Also look for qualifying to be cancelled, field set by points, 100% chance of rain Friday.

    I live 15 minutes up the road from the track and go to just about every race. Not going to be able to go to the spring race this year but glad to see the weather Saturday and Sunday look great.

  • gje627

    Looks like the field is set (if I recall correctly, the entry deadline is 12 noon Eastern Time, the Tuesday before the race).

    Only 38 drivers this week, the smallest field so far this year. It looks like the one semi-regular not racing is everybody’s favorite “back marker,” Derrike Cope.

    I imagine salaries will be out soon on DK.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 919

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @gje627 said...

    Looks like the field is set (if I recall correctly, the entry deadline is 12 noon Eastern Time, the Tuesday before the race).

    Only 38 drivers this week, the smallest field so far this year. It looks like the one semi-regular not racing is everybody’s favorite “back marker,” Derrike Cope.

    I imagine salaries will be out soon on DK.

    Usually on Wednesday

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @Cooper08 said...

    Damage at Marinsville is typically minimal due to lower speeds and minimal banking, yes it will happen but shouldn’t be an issue to fix.

    Just watch. There will be cars effected by this

  • wiesnerx0042

    no derrike cope …. perfect chance to take the spin with………corey lajoie

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Damage at Marinsville is typically minimal due to lower speeds and minimal banking, yes it will happen but shouldn’t be an issue to fix.
    Also look for qualifying to be cancelled, field set by points, 100% chance of rain Friday.

    Good to know, thanks for the weather information.

    Based on owner points for drivers entered this week, if qualifying is cancelled this is how the starting grid would look:

    1) Kyle Larson, 2) Chase Elliott, 3) Martin Truex Jr., 4) Brad Keselowski, 5) Joey Logano, 6) Jamie McMurray, 7) Ryan Blaney, 8) Clint Bowyer, 9) Kevin Harvick, 10) Kyle Busch, 11) Ryan Newman, 12) Denny Hamlin, 13) Kasey Kahne, 14) Kurt Busch, 15) Erik Jones, 16) Trevor Bayne, 17) Jimmie Johnson, 18) Aric Almirola, 19) Daniel Suarez, 20) Austin Dillon, 21) Dale Earnhardt Jr., 22) Paul Menard, 23) Ty Dillon, 24) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 25) Matt Kenseth, 26) Michael McDowell, 27) Landon Cassill, 28) Matt DiBenedetto, 29) Danica Patrick, 30) AJ Allmendinger, 31) Cole Whitt, 32) Reed Sorenson, 33) Chris Buescher, 34) David Ragan, 35) Corey LaJoie, 36) Jeffrey Earnhardt, 37) Gray Gaulding, 38) Timmy Hill.

  • whiterock

    • 597

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #98

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Salaries are posted!

  • bigdaddies

    heavy rain on the way

  • gje627

    If there are any data analysis/statistical methods nerds in this thread, I performed a pre-practice/qualifying Monte Carlo simulation of projected finish position for the race this weekend (i.e., not DK points rank).

    Over 10,000 iterations, the results are as follows:

    1) Kyle Busch, 2) Kyle Larson, 3) Martin Truex Jr., 4) Joey Logano, 5) Brad Keselowski, 6) Kevin Harvick, 7) Denny Hamlin, 8) Jimmie Johnson, 9) Matt Kenseth, 10) Chase Elliott, 11) Jamie McMurray, 12) Ryan Newman, 13) Erik Jones, 14) Dale Earnhardt Jr., 15) Kurt Busch, 16) Kasey Kahne, 17) Ryan Blaney, 18) AJ Allmendinger, 19) Austin Dillon, 20) Clint Bowyer, 21) Paul Menard, 22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 23) Aric Almirola, 24) Ty Dillon, 25) Trevor Bayne, 26) Danica Patrick, 27) Daniel Suarez, 28) Michael McDowell, 29) David Ragan, 30) Chris Buescher, 31) Landon Cassill, 32) Matt DiBenedetto, 33) Cole Whitt, 34) Gray Gaulding, 35) Corey LaJoie, 36) Reed Sorenson, 37) Jeffrey Earnhardt, 38) Timmy Hill.

    For the simulation, the following frequency-weighted data was used: 1. Loop data for all races except plate and road course races for the previous three years; 2. Loop data for all 2017 races to date, except Daytona; 3. Loop data, practice, and qualifying data for the previous six Martinsville races; 4. Loop data, practice, and qualifying data for the previous 12 flat track races, including Martinsville (other flat tracks: Indianapolis, New Hampshire, Phoenix, Pocono, Richmond).

    I’ll re-do to include starting position/practice data as the weekend progresses. Obviously, this “new” information will likely have a substantial effect on these current projections.

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