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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sunday, April 2nd, 2:00pm est

    MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES AT MARTINSVILLE
    Martinsville Speedway

  • gje627

    As promised, I ran an updated and final Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) of the most likely finishing position for each driver (not DK fantasy points rank). As before, I used weighted frequency correlations including the factors I listed in an earlier post. The weights were not “made-up;” rather they are based on actual correlation coefficients, again of the variables listed previously.

    The first number is the most likely finishing position and the numbers to the right of each driver (in parentheses) are the most likely finishing range for each driver.

    Thus, for Brad Keselowski his projected finishing place is 2nd, with a likely finishing range between 1 and 6; so he is expected to finish near the top of his range. Contrast this with Kurt Busch, whose most likely finishing position is 18, which is at the very bottom of his range; meaning there is a decent probability that he actually finishes higher than his projected 18th place.

    Also, and importantly, please note I did NOT project DNFs for individual drivers based on wrecks or mechanical issues. Obviously, it’s NASCAR, so anyone can crash. I did, however, project the total number of DNFs, and according to the analysis it is projected that between 5 and 6 drivers do not finish the race (13.6%).

    I have also projected fantasy points and fantasy point ranges for each driver. But since we’re competing with one another I don’t plan to share here :)

    Finally, this analysis is 100% “mathematics/statistics” (i.e. science not art), meaning no subjective analysis was used to determine the rankings.

    Monte Carlo Analysis – Finishing Place & Finishing Range Projections

    1) Kyle Busch (1-6)
    2) Brad Keselowski (1-6)
    3) Joey Logano (2-8)
    4) Denny Hamlin (1-6)
    5) Martin Truex Jr (2-8)
    6) Kyle Larson (4-10)
    7) Kevin Harvick (6-11)
    8) Jamie McMurray (6-11)
    9) Jimmie Johnson (6-11)
    10) Ryan Newman (7-14)
    11) Clint Bowyer (6-16)
    12) Erik Jones (8-18)
    13) Matt Kenseth (9-15)
    14) Dale Earnhardt Jr (10-15)
    15) Chase Elliott (8-16)
    16) Ryan Blaney (13-18)
    17) Kasey Kahne (11-18)
    18) Kurt Busch (12-18)
    19) Austin Dillon (13-21)
    20) AJ Allmendinger (15-20)
    21) Paul Menard (17-22)
    22) Aric Almirola (16-23)
    23) Ty Dillon (16-25)
    24) Danica Patrick (19-26)
    25) Daniel Suarez (19-28)
    26) Trevor Bayne (18-27)
    27) Ricky Stenhouse Jr (22-29)
    28) Michael McDowell (21-30)
    29) Chris Buescher (23-29)
    30) David Ragan (23-32)
    31) Landon Cassill (23-32)
    32) Cole Whitt (27-32)
    33) Matt DiBenedetto (28-33)
    34) Reed Sorenson (32-37)
    35) Corey LaJoie (32-37)
    36) Jeffrey Earnhardt (32-37)
    37) Gray Gaulding (32-38)
    38) Timmy Hill (32-38)

    GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!!

  • Numba1dfs

    Goodluck

  • Shaptown88

    Gray Gaulding top 20 this week

  • wiesnerx0042

    truck race was on fox29, so i gave it a go this afternoon…chase got the win, with a few lead changes taking places. about 7, 8 cautions before i lost count

  • billholler

    @gje627 said...

    and according to the analysis it is projected that between 5 and 6 drivers do not finish the race (13.6%).

    Last 4 Martinsville races averaged about 2.5 DNFs per race so don’t see why you would expect 5 to 6. Only factor that I could see changing things this year would be the stupid stages.

  • mackie64

    Can anyone give some good advise. Last year was my first full season of NASCAR and did ok being that only played a few entries each week. However this season I’ve been off to a rough start. Not sure if this new format has anything to do with it bc I have avoided wrecks in about every race just seem to have a few drivers who go laps down and never seem to get back on lead lap etc. So for this weekend is it better to select drivers starting towards the front being that they can get lapped fairly quick if they start at the back. Or pick a mix front and towards the back? Or is it more of a crap shoot with this new format and hope drivers stay on lead lap if a caution doesn’t come out and don’t have to pit under green flag.

  • gje627

    @billholler said...

    Last 4 Martinsville races averaged about 2.5 DNFs per race so don’t see why you would expect 5 to 6. Only factor that I could see changing things this year would be the stupid stages.

    Like I said, that’s what the math says. Obviously, it could be wrong… or it could be right, who knows it’s NASCAR, the variance is extraordinary.

    Also, I realize you LOVE coming on the forums and criticizing every opinion and every analysis by other people, but until you provide something of substance I would strongly recommend you quit throwing stones….

    Good Luck :)

  • billholler

    @mackie64

    I had a nice 2 month run last year before DK drastically reduced the Nascar GPP payouts and I quit playing. Had a mediocre at best start this season so far. Had a huge near miss thanks to a late wreck (FU Logano!!). It seems there are more DFS players now and the regular DFS players have gotten better at analyzing the available data.

    Lineup building should be done on a track by track basis. Martinsville isn’t really favorable to the drivers in the back as it’s harder to pass with tight turns and shorter straightaways. Plus you have drivers that are more apt to crash on certain tracks (I fully expect Danica to wreck today and take out a few others). Just have to learn the nuances of the track each week before considering which drivers to use as a core.

  • billholler

    @gje627 said...

    Like I said, that’s what the math says. Obviously, it could be wrong… or it could be right, who knows it’s NASCAR, the variance is extraordinary.

    Also, I realize you LOVE coming on the forums and criticizing every opinion and every analysis by other people, but until you provide something of substance I would strongly recommend you quit throwing stones….

    Good Luck :)

    Certainly wasn’t throwing stones. I really dig your in depth computer analysis. We are all here to get opinions and analysis from RG users.

    As for my previous comment, I can see Danica taking out half the field today. Not being chauvinistic, just don’t like seeing her in the middle of the pack on a tight track where she is accustomed to wrecking.

  • mackie64

    @billholler said...

    @mackie64

    I had a nice 2 month run last year before DK drastically reduced the Nascar GPP payouts and I quit playing. Had a mediocre at best start this season so far. Had a huge near miss thanks to a late wreck (FU Logano!!). It seems there are more DFS players now and the regular DFS players have gotten better at analyzing the available data.

    Lineup building should be done on a track by track basis. Martinsville isn’t really favorable to the drivers in the back as it’s harder to pass with tight turns and shorter straightaways. Plus you have drivers that are more apt to crash on certain tracks (I fully expect Danica to wreck today and take out a few others). Just have to learn the nuances of the track each week before considering which drivers to use as a core.

    Thanks bill!! yea kenseth has got me. Both races I drafted him he wrecked and other drivers went laps down to green flag pits.

  • agame2323

    @billholler said...

    As for my previous comment, I can see Danica taking out half the field today. Not being chauvinistic, just don’t like seeing her in the middle of the pack on a tight track where she is accustomed to wrecking.

    I disagree. Daninca is actually someone I’m liking today. She actually knows this track and I think it has a lot to do with her Indy days. Watch. She’s going to perform well today.

  • billholler

    @agame2323 said...

    I disagree. Daninca is actually someone I’m liking today. She actually knows this track and I think it has a lot to do with her Indy days. Watch. She’s going to perform well today.

    I like her price in relation to her starting position but she hasn’t been running well and crashed twice in last 5 races at Martinsville. We shall see. I didn’t go full fade but have her in less than 5%.

  • WVUDoss

    I cannot figure out what to do with Kenseth today….

  • Epignosis

    • 474

      RG Overall Ranking

    I just wanted to pop in and inform you all that I had a dream last night that Martin Truex Jr won the race today.

    Take that with a grain of salt though, because Nikola Vucevic came in second…

  • Peader24

    Can the dinger get through traffic without getting caught in wrecks?

  • wormworth

    I’ll start picking Logano again if he and K Busch make it thru this race with no incursions.

  • billholler

    I’m sticking with the Jr fade until he shows he isn’t scared.

  • halltere

    Going back to Bowyer again this week. Good luck to everyone.

  • tmquint11

    @halltere said...

    Going back to Bowyer again this week. Good luck to everyone.

    Clint Bowyer The P*$$y Destroyer FTW

  • tristanwolf

    Welp should be a wild one. G luck all!

  • halltere

    Kyle Busch going backwards didnt see this coming

  • thetitanlb

    Wow Keslowski sped on pit road. What a chump. Un freaking real

  • tristanwolf

    @halltere said...

    Kyle Busch going backwards didnt see this coming

    Well he figured somethingout, looks pretty fast now!

  • ItsMeBT

    Still have no clue what Danica did. Running mid 20s on lead lap and then the caution comes out and she’s 33rd down a lap.

  • thetitanlb

    @ItsMeBT said...

    Still have no clue what Danica did. Running mid 20s on lead lap and then the caution comes out and she’s 33rd down a lap.

    She got lapped. The had a long pit stop.

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