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  • dbullsfan

    Hey everybody, GJE has a busy schedule this week so I’m going to try to help him out just a bit and get us kick started on the week for Nascar. I hope not too mess things up too much while he is stepping away for a week. My data is not quite as deep as his so if anyone else can help with some deeper notes please feel free to add them. Thanks.

    Pocono Motor Speedway
    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Friday, June 1
    11:35 a.m.-12:25 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice, FS2
    1:05-1:55 p.m.: NASCAR Xfinity Series practice, FS2
    3:05-3:55 p.m.: NASCAR Xfinity Series final practice, FS2
    4:15 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Busch Pole Qualifying, FS2

    Saturday, June 2
    9:35 a.m.: NASCAR Xfinity Series qualifying, FS1
    11:30 a.m.-12:20 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series final practice, FS1
    1 p.m.: NASCAR Xfinity Series Pocono Green 250 Recycled by J.P. Mascaro & Sons (100 laps, 250 miles), FS1

    Sunday, June 3
    2 p.m.: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Pocono 400 (160 laps, 400 miles), FS1

    Race Details

    — 160 Laps – 400 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 50; Stage 2: Lap 51-100; Stage 3: Lap 101-160

    Pocono Raceway –

    — 2.5 Mile, known as the “tricky triangle” with 3 main turns (6 if you split them up)
    Different banking for each
    Turn 1: 14°
    Turn 2: 8°
    Turn 3: 6°

    Pocono Raceway –

    Last Three (3) DK Pt Leaders (sorry someone will need to help me out with the FanDuel) *Bonus 4th due to Fog Race

    —- 06/06/2016: Chase Elliot SP:13 FP:4 Fast Laps:17 Laps Led:51 (70.25 DK FPts) Kurt Busch SP:9 FP:1 Fast Laps:6 Laps Led:32 (65.00 DK FPts)
    — 08/01/2016: Race Shortened to 138 Laps due to Fog: Chris Buescher SP:22 FP:1 Fast Laps:0 Laps Led:12 (70 DK FPts) Regan Smith SP:30 FP:3 Fast Laps:0 Laps Led:0 (68 DK FPts)
    — 06/11/2017: Kyle Busch SP:1 FP:9 Fast Laps:34 Laps Led:100 (69.00 DK FPts) Erik Jones SP:15 FP:3 Fast Laps:14 Laps Led:20 (65.00 DK FPts)
    — 07/30/2017: Kyle Busch SP:1 FP:1 Fast Laps:36 Laps Led: 74 (82.50 DK FPts) Martin Truex Jr. SP:2 FP:3 Fast Laps:22 Laps Led:31 (58.75 DK FPts)

    Data used for the past 8 races at Pocono Raceway

    Driver Rating:
    1: Kevin Harvick- 108.0
    2. Erik Jones (2 races)- 106.5
    3. Kurt Busch- 104.2
    4. Brad Keselowski- 103.0
    5. Chase Elliot (4 races)- 99.3

    Laps Led:
    1.Kyle Busch- 197
    2.Joey Logano- 182
    3.Martin Truex Jr.-155
    4.Brad Keselowski-123
    5.Kurt Busch-80

    Fastest Laps
    1.Kevin Harvick-149
    2.Kyle Busch-116
    3.Martin Truex Jr.-115
    4.Brad Keslowski-90
    5.Kurt Busch-59

    Race Data, News, Information, and Weather

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Stephen Young – Rotogrinders Lead NASCAR Analyst
    Kevin Roth – Rotogrinders Chief Meteorologist

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    History at Pocono favors top 5 drivers…. So I agree with Stevie….

    In 34.62% of the 26 races at Pocono since 2005, at least 1 driver from starting top 5 finished top 6 in DK fantasy points (6 being the number of drivers in a DK lineup). Surprisingly, in 42.31% of races you would have needed 2 drivers and finally in 11.54% of races 3 drivers.

    Even though this race doesn’t have many dominator points, it’s still a front-runner race for the most part. Thus, finishing position points are at least as important as place differential points, as place differential can be elusive here.

    Good info…but if you play two of the top three priced guys you are not getting three of the best point diff options and if you go with two of them your other two drivers are very questionable. Btw, 42% means not even half the races, if it was 62% then that would be strong….

    Question, can you throw current pricing in your model as pricing now and then are different to see if you get the same results five years ago, three years, etc…

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Good info…but if you play two of the top three priced guys you are not getting three of the best point diff options and if you go with two of them your other two drivers are very questionable. Btw, 42% means not even half the races, if it was 62% then that would be strong….

    Question, can you throw current pricing in your model as pricing now and then are different to see if you get the same results five years ago, three years, etc…

    Yeah, but the 42% number is better than ANY other range of 5 drivers (you stated starting 1-5, so I compared to all ranges of 5…..)

    Also, see my last edit where I say this…..

    “Maybe this will help some people … but maybe not … without taking starting position, salary, and race-script into consideration, I personally can NOT recommend drivers (or alternatively not recommend drivers) PRIOR to running simulations… because like I said before single drivers alone in a lineup don’t win a GPP….. Really need to now how these drivers combine in a 6-driver DK lineup.”

    EDIT

    Hopefully, when I say “ranges” everyone understands that I mean all adjacent drivers (5 in this case)….

    Thus 1-5, 2-6, 10-14, 11-15, 29-33…. I think it’s obvious, but I thought I would clarify to make sure (and yes, all my examples are 5 driver ranges).

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Yeah, but the 42% number is better than ANY other range of 5 drivers (you stated starting 1-5, so I compared to all ranges of 5…..)

    Also, see my last edit where I say this…..

    “Maybe this will help some people … but maybe not … without taking starting position, salary, and race-script into consideration, I personally can NOT recommend drivers (or alternatively not recommend drivers) PRIOR to running simulations… because like I said before single drivers alone in a lineup don’t win a GPP….. Really need to now how these drivers combine in a 6-driver DK lineup.”

    EDIT

    Hopefully, when I say “ranges” everyone understands that I mean all adjacent drivers (5 in this case)….

    Thus 1-5, 2-6, 10-14, 11-15, 29-33…. I think it’s obvious, but I thought I would clarify to make sure (and yes, all my examples are 5 driver ranges).

    Good info…thanks.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Good info…but if you play two of the top three priced guys you are not getting three of the best point diff options and if you go with two of them your other two drivers are very questionable.

    Sorry, forgot to mention, but on place differential….

    See my last point on previous page.

    Also, Blaney and McMurray are both starting top 5. Their salaries are very reasonable. Even though I’m full-fade on McMurray he still fits with a higher-priced driver….

    FYI…. I hate giving “advice” … because I’m strictly a “numbers” player and that’s why I usually just provide data, modeling, simulation, and analytic information … void of opinion. Again, this is mostly due to my inferiority as an “intuitive” player (i.e. I’m stupid on my own)….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Sorry, forgot to mention, but on place differential….

    See my last point on previous page.

    Also, Blaney and McMurray are both starting top 5. Their salaries are very reasonable. Even though I’m full-fade on McMurray he still fits with a higher-priced driver….

    FYI…. I hate giving “advice” … because I’m strictly a “numbers” player and that’s why I usually just provide data, modeling, simulation, and analytic information … void of opinion. Again, this is mostly due to my inferiority as an “intuitive” player (i.e. I’m stupid on my own)….

    I think once u start making lineups u will c Ky Busch, Harvick, Truex is not a good fit using two of the three….

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I think once u start making lineups u will c Ky Busch, Harvick, Truex is not a good fit using two of the three….

    Did you see my Blaney, McMurray point?

    They are both starting Top 5 !!!

    Also, if there are 2 primary dominators and they both finish top 3, or so…..

    You will need both, no matter how expensive….

    Regardless, I do really well with how I play, but maybe others do better…. I really don’t keep track of anyone else. I guess we just disagree. With the exception of my fade list (which is advice, kind-of, but based on numbers) the rest of what I’ve said is only analytics, etc….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Did you see my Blaney, McMurray point?

    They are both starting Top 5 !!!

    Also, if there are 2 primary dominators and they both finish top 3, or so…..

    You will need both, no matter how expensive….

    Regardless, I do really well with how I play, but maybe others do better…. I really don’t keep track of anyone else. I guess we just disagree. With the exception of my fade list (which is advice, kind-of, but based on numbers) the rest of what I’ve said is only analytics, etc….

    I get Blaney and McMurray….but not Harvick and Busch or Truex or any combo of two of those three…I think you will score more points with the one of the three who scores the most points plus Kes, Jones and Almirola…..Kes T5, Jones 10th and Almirola 15th will give all three right at around 50 points…which should make all three of them rank in the T6 DK points scored…

  • dbullsfan

    Kurt is so much better of a play than McMurray if going that route and may end up better than Blaney.

  • dbullsfan

    Also not many people talking about Kenseth this week and I like that, I hope he somehow floats under the radar

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I get Blaney and McMurray….but not Harvick and Busch or Truex or any combo of two of those three…I think you will score more points with the one of the three who scores the most points plus Kes, Jones and Almirola…..Kes T5, Jones 10th and Almirola 15th will give all three right at around 50 points…which should make all three of them rank in the T6 DK points scored…

    Yeah, but did you see my point?

    Sorry, you were arguing against a point I did NOT make….

    Anyways, have you run any lineups? Have you seen how starting positions work together at Pocono for winning GPPs? Have you considered that the race-script here is substantially different than any other track on the circuit? … By race-script I mean how ALL starting positions play-out together AND the quality of the individual driver in each starting position AND the likelihood for each driver to DNF AND driver history at each particular track and track type, AND driver salary, etc….

    This is what simulations do for you….

    Again, that’s why I don’t give advice…. Just numbers.

    I would feel terrible if someone played off my advice alone and lost a lot of money.

    That’s why I don’t do it.

    Anyways, I’ll concede you’re right here and I’m wrong…. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Yeah, but did you see my point?

    Sorry, you were arguing against a point I did NOT make….

    Anyways, have you run any lineups? Have you seen how starting positions work together at Pocono for winning GPPs? Have you considered that the race-script here is substantially different than any other track on the circuit? … By race-script I mean how ALL starting positions play-out together AND the quality of the individual driver in each starting position AND the likelihood for each driver to DNF AND driver history at each particular track and track type, AND driver salary, etc….

    This is what simulations do for you….

    Again, that’s why I don’t give advice…. Just numbers.

    I would feel terrible if someone played off my advice alone and lost a lot of money.

    That’s why I don’t do it.

    Anyways, I’ll concede you’re right here and I’m wrong…. :)

    I am not sure why you consider me trying to justify my thought process arguing?

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I am not sure why you consider me trying to justify my thought process arguing?

    Just saying, regardless of what I say, you disagree with it…. And that’s fine….

    But what peeves me is when what I say is maligned, and you disagree with me on a point I clearly did not make, in fact I often make the opposite point (see above, and see last week regarding long-run speed, for example)….

    Yeah, I may suck tomorrow … but I’ve had a killer-year overall.

    Please, just don’t misrepresent what I’m saying. That’s all.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Just saying, regardless of what I say, you disagree with it…. And that’s fine….

    But what peeves me is when what I say is maligned, and you disagree with me on a point I clearly did not make, in fact I often make the opposite point (see above, and see last week regarding long-run speed, for example)….

    Yeah, I may suck tomorrow … but I’ve had a killer-year overall.

    Please, just don’t misrepresent what I’m saying. That’s all.

    I am just trying to have a discussion with your process vs my thought process, easy peasy…usually a good discussion involves two different point of views so it’s common to have what you call disagreement. In addition it allows other forum members to see different strategies.

    As far as being maligned and a point you didn’t make you will need to clarify as I am not following were I said anything specific to make you feel that way. If I did I apologize as that is not my intention as all I am looking for is a discussion.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I am just trying to have a discussion with your process vs my thought process, easy peasy…usually a good discussion involves two different point of views so it’s common to have what you call disagreement. In addition it allows other forum members to see different strategies.

    As far as being maligned and a point you didn’t make you will need to clarify as I am not following were I said anything specific to make you feel that way. If I did I apologize as that is not my intention as all I am looking for is a discussion.

    Last week long-run speed, ….

    Above, 1 driver in top 5 because they’re all too expensive to fit together (my point was see Blaney and McMurray, they’re reasonably priced, even though personally I’m fading McMurray … BTW, these are 2 of 5 drivers in top 5)….

    See prior weeks for more…. That’s where you’ve misrepresented what I say…. Just think you want to disagree for the sake of disagreement…..

    Will I play 2 drivers in the top 5 in all my lineups.

    Hell no, just don’t rule it out altogether because the numbers say it is an effective GPP strategy at Pocono.

    Also, what’s the magic about top 5, i.e. drivers ending at starting position 5? What about drivers 2-6, or 1-7? … Now are 2 drivers acceptable? … Regardless of relative cost and upside?

    Again, this is where simulations (and chaos math) work wonders….

    Nevertheless, no harm, no foul. I always do what I do anyways….

    So no hard feelings. :)

    Done with this topic….

    I’ll only post data/analytics later, if I have time….

    I just like to support my statements with numbers, you like to support yours with gut-feeling.

    Regardless, who cares…..

    No harm, no foul. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Rest assure I am not disagreeing to just disagree.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Rest assure I am not disagreeing to just disagree.

    No worries.

    Only data/analytics moving forward.

    Good Luck Tomorrow !!! :)

  • tristanwolf

    coop and gje you guys are great. thanks for all your thoughts.

  • Thechamp1995

    • 754

      RG Overall Ranking

    Cannot choose between Harvick or Kyle Busch. Literally seems 50-50

  • depalma13

    Today is Jamie McMurray’s birthday.

    Also, did his crew change the transmission on his car? NASCAR is allowing a transmission change without going to the back of the field this week. I figured he would take advantage of it after his practice mistake. Any word if they did it?

  • jaguar21

    Focusing on place differential . So Eric jones and chalky Almirola made my team.

  • WVUDoss

    @jaguar21 said...

    Focusing on place differential . So Eric jones and chalky Almirola made my team.

    Same. I believe this is the lowest # of laps on an oval this season (tied with the other Pocono race and the July Daytona race).

  • Epicsic

    Point diff. Is meaningless at this track. Passing is near to non existing and moving threw the pack from 30 and back is imossible . Simply this track sucks. Stick to fastest cars and starting in front because that’s where they all will stay.

  • Vandyball27

    Hey GJE question in your data did your find KB and Harvick were in a lot of winning lineups together or are they Just to expensive to make a well rounded roster. It seems to be a close call for me. I am kind of torn on what to do.

  • dbullsfan

    hoping for a decent week this week as rosters are shaping up nicely. I really like the PD plays, Almirola a lot more than Jones. Harvick should be able to dominate this race at least at the start and as long as crazy pit strategies don’t lead to him losing out on a ton of laps led and fastest laps he should be able to be worth the price this week if he can stay out of trouble. He has sat around and heard everyone talk about KB winning at every track all week and how awesome that is and if you think that doesn’t drive him to put everything into winning this week and his team into winning it for him than your crazy. Some other guys I like this week Bowyer (more on FD if I played there but even on DK), Ty, Kenseth, Mcdowell, Larson, and Kes. Kenseth is my favorite of the cheaper guys as I think he will get overlooked a bit and has top 15 upside and should finish top 20 if he can stay out of trouble.

  • dbullsfan

    @Vandyball27 said...

    Hey GJE question in your data did your find KB and Harvick were in a lot of winning lineups together or are they Just to expensive to make a well rounded roster. It seems to be a close call for me. I am kind of torn on what to do.

    not sure what his numbers will say but I imagine it will be similar. There are limited number of dominator points here at Pocono so having 2 expensive guys starting at the top (lack of PD) is a stronger negative correlation than most weeks. I have a few lineups in the 150 mini max with both but like 2-5% and none in any of the 20 max or SE. It would take both dominating a portion of this race and for at least 2 of Kes/Larson/Almirola/Jones/Johnson to not have significant PD points for them to be in the winning lineup together.

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