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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

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  • feekdogg

    Wolves are down Rubio and Juancho per the local news due to Covid, could be more coming today.

  • jd1984

    Could be some good value with Boston today

  • Jeddy3

    Trae day

  • frugal

    OK, my model seems to have enough data to be working correctly so I’ll start dropping some value reports on a semi regular basis. This doesn’t consider replacement starters (any time a team has less than 10 available and is starting min salary players, lock them in and don’t look back), just a first run where my model believes guys are underpriced based on projected outcome and the reason. This is based on DK/Yahoo pricing and points.

    Brandon Clarke 6.1 DK / 20 Y- Clarke has been averaging 32.2/33.5 over the last 5 games and gets a prime matchup. Clarke’s offensive profile is all about scoring inside where he takes 43% of his FGAs at the rim making a respectable 65%. Opponents are attacking MIN at the rim 1.09X league average and hitting them at 1.04X league average. Additionally, MIN is giving up 1.06X league average rebounds to opponent bigs. I like Clarke’s chance of hitting 38+ DK/40+ Yahoo tonight, my model has him as the top midrange value play of the night.

    Willie Cauley-Stein 4.5 DK / 11 Y – WCS is only in play if Kleber and Powell are still out where he should see heavy minutes as the starting C for DAL. MIL is a flat 1X rebounding to opposing Cs, but given WCS strong performance last game I like his chances at outperforming MIL avg here. Just like last season, the MIL D is all about clogging the lane and forcing opponents to beat them from 3. With Doncic 3 pointer starting to look better after a slow start and the return of KP, MIL will have to adjust their game plan tonight to focus a little more on contesting the 3 which should open things up slightly for WCS. I think he has a good chance of hitting 27+ DK / 30+ Y (again, assuming Kleber and Powell are still out)

    Other options:

    Yahoo – Tyus Jones, Mitchell Robinson, Pat Bev (Questionable)
    DK – Pat Bev (Questionable), Al Horford, Nick Batum

  • miggs6876

    @frugal said...

    OK, my model seems to have enough data to be working correctly so I’ll start dropping some value reports on a semi regular basis. This doesn’t consider replacement starters (any time a team has less than 10 available and is starting min salary players, lock them in and don’t look back), just a first run where my model believes guys are underpriced based on projected outcome and the reason. This is based on DK/Yahoo pricing and points.

    Brandon Clarke 6.1 DK / 20 Y- Clarke has been averaging 32.2/33.5 over the last 5 games and gets a prime matchup. Clarke’s offensive profile is all about scoring inside where he takes 43% of his FGAs at the rim making a respectable 65%. Opponents are attacking IN at the rim 1.09X league average and hitting them at 1.04X league average. Additionally, MIN is giving up 1.06X league average rebounds to opponent bigs. I like Clarke’s chance of hitting 38+ DK/40+ Yahoo tonight, my model has him as the top midrange value play of the night.

    Willie Cauley-Stein 4.5 DK / 11 Y – WCS is only in play if Kleber and Powell are still out where he should see heavy minutes as the starting C for DAL. MIL is a flat 1X rebounding to opposing Cs, but given WCS strong performance last game I like his chances at outperforming MIL avg here. Just like last season, the MIL D is all about clogging the lane and forcing opponents to beat them from 3. With Doncic 3 pointer starting to look better after a slow start and the return of KP, MIL will have to adjust their game plan tonight to focus a little more on contesting the 3 which should open things up slightly for WCS. I think he has a good chance of hitting 27+ DK / 30+ Y (again, assuming Kleber and Powell as still out)

    Other options:

    Yahoo – Tyus Jones, Mitchell Robinson, Pat Bev (Questionable)
    DK – Pat Bev (Questionable), Al Horford, Nick Batum

    I like Clarke especially on FD for 5.6k. Other value guys I’m looking at are Dotson 5k and Pat Bev 4k if he’s in. Sweet Lou too. Like AGordon at 6.5k. Locking in Jval at 7k vs Minn.

    Stacking Lac/Sac game too. Using various players in several line ups.

  • maddysdaddy0914

    @frugal said...

    OK, my model seems to have enough data to be working correctly so I’ll start dropping some value reports on a semi regular basis. This doesn’t consider replacement starters (any time a team has less than 10 available and is starting min salary players, lock them in and don’t look back), just a first run where my model believes guys are underpriced based on projected outcome and the reason. This is based on DK/Yahoo pricing and points.

    Brandon Clarke 6.1 DK / 20 Y- Clarke has been averaging 32.2/33.5 over the last 5 games and gets a prime matchup. Clarke’s offensive profile is all about scoring inside where he takes 43% of his FGAs at the rim making a respectable 65%. Opponents are attacking IN at the rim 1.09X league average and hitting them at 1.04X league average. Additionally, MIN is giving up 1.06X league average rebounds to opponent bigs. I like Clarke’s chance of hitting 38+ DK/40+ Yahoo tonight, my model has him as the top midrange value play of the night.

    Willie Cauley-Stein 4.5 DK / 11 Y – WCS is only in play if Kleber and Powell are still out where he should see heavy minutes as the starting C for DAL. MIL is a flat 1X rebounding to opposing Cs, but given WCS strong performance last game I like his chances at outperforming MIL avg here. Just like last season, the MIL D is all about clogging the lane and forcing opponents to beat them from 3. With Doncic 3 pointer starting to look better after a slow start and the return of KP, MIL will have to adjust their game plan tonight to focus a little more on contesting the 3 which should open things up slightly for WCS. I think he has a good chance of hitting 27+ DK / 30+ Y (again, assuming Kleber and Powell as still out)

    Other options:

    Yahoo – Tyus Jones, Mitchell Robinson, Pat Bev (Questionable)
    DK – Pat Bev (Questionable), Al Horford, Nick Batum

    That’s great stuff Frugal. Looking forward to seeing more of it.

  • emnj69

    curious to see if bledsoe plays that will impact a few things for me

    the one guy I get wrong every single time is fox -take tonight for example -I like him and clips bev and lou both might be out but I dont think either of them plays d these days especially lou…

    I have played fox three times this year where I went heavy on him and he got me 5 points 13 points and 13 points and those I think were his only bad games lol

  • emnj69

    guy I like tonight and my “likes “ honestly have not been good lately is clarkson
    hawks get torched by shooters and I think they get beat up bad by utah so that takes me off mitchell

  • monarch

    Cle-NY has an O/U of 197. GROSS. That would be like a whole game of PJ Tuckers out there.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 282

      RG Overall Ranking

    @monarch said...

    Cle-NY has an O/U of 197. GROSS. That would be like a whole game of PJ Tuckers out there.

    Still doing Golf or nah? Haven’t seen you are Irrigator around lately on Golf thread/contests. Probably focusing on NBA?

  • frugal

    @monarch said...

    Cle-NY has an O/U of 197. GROSS. That would be like a whole game of PJ Tuckers out there.

    IME slow paced games are where more traditional bigs feast. This could be a great game for Drum, Robinson, and Randle.

  • feekdogg

    @frugal said...

    OK, my model seems to have enough data to be working correctly so I’ll start dropping some value reports on a semi regular basis. This doesn’t consider replacement starters (any time a team has less than 10 available and is starting min salary players, lock them in and don’t look back), just a first run where my model believes guys are underpriced based on projected outcome and the reason. This is based on DK/Yahoo pricing and points.

    Brandon Clarke 6.1 DK / 20 Y- Clarke has been averaging 32.2/33.5 over the last 5 games and gets a prime matchup. Clarke’s offensive profile is all about scoring inside where he takes 43% of his FGAs at the rim making a respectable 65%. Opponents are attacking MIN at the rim 1.09X league average and hitting them at 1.04X league average. Additionally, MIN is giving up 1.06X league average rebounds to opponent bigs. I like Clarke’s chance of hitting 38+ DK/40+ Yahoo tonight, my model has him as the top midrange value play of the night.

    Willie Cauley-Stein 4.5 DK / 11 Y – WCS is only in play if Kleber and Powell are still out where he should see heavy minutes as the starting C for DAL. MIL is a flat 1X rebounding to opposing Cs, but given WCS strong performance last game I like his chances at outperforming MIL avg here. Just like last season, the MIL D is all about clogging the lane and forcing opponents to beat them from 3. With Doncic 3 pointer starting to look better after a slow start and the return of KP, MIL will have to adjust their game plan tonight to focus a little more on contesting the 3 which should open things up slightly for WCS. I think he has a good chance of hitting 27+ DK / 30+ Y (again, assuming Kleber and Powell are still out)

    Other options:

    Yahoo – Tyus Jones, Mitchell Robinson, Pat Bev (Questionable)
    DK – Pat Bev (Questionable), Al Horford, Nick Batum

    Clarke looked fantastic against the Wolves on Wednesday. Way too athletic for Naz, Okogie or whoever they throw out there (Vanderbilt?).

  • monarch

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Still doing Golf or nah? Haven’t seen you are Irrigator around lately on Golf thread/contests. Probably focusing on NBA?

    I threw one into the Sony. Doing pretty good. Everyone at -2 or better so far. But pretty much engulfed in NBA. I will probably try and go for Masters satellites once they pop up there. How about you?

    Golf is my second favorite DFS sport then NFL Showdown.

  • theIrrigator

    • 684

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #27

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @monarch said...

    Cle-NY has an O/U of 197. GROSS. That would be like a whole game of PJ Tuckers out there.

    So stack it?

  • monarch

    @frugal said...

    IME slow paced games are where more traditional bigs feast. This could be a great game for Drum, Robinson, and Randle.

    Thats true. I read where the Cavs are basically going to trade Drummond. They view Allen as their future at center. Maybe we get some Drum showcase games

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 282

      RG Overall Ranking

    @monarch said...

    I threw one into the Sony. Doing pretty good. Everyone at -2 or better so far. But pretty much engulfed in NBA. I will probably try and go for Masters satellites once they pop up there. How about you?

    Golf is my second favorite DFS sport then NFL Showdown.

    Toss up for me between golf and mlb as my favorite. I love being able to follow golf during the day at work. Usually hit NBA hard M-W, rest of the days I’m on golf and just throwing in a few lineups on NBA with Brendan’s picks. And to second what Panda said yesterday because I was thinking the same thing, Brendan gonna win $100K before anyone else, lmao

  • frugal

    @monarch said...

    Thats true. I read where the Cavs are basically going to trade Drummond. They view Allen as their future at center. Maybe we get some Drum showcase games

    I don’t believe the Harden trade is finalized so none of the new guys are available for their new teams yet. I have a feeling there’s going to be an issue here which prolongs the settlement as trading injured players (Exum) is tricky unless the receiving team doesn’t really care about playing them.

  • maddysdaddy0914

    if I recall correctly Luka and Brook smashed in this matchup last time they played.

    Hard to get off of Randle. Fox at that price is so tempting.

    Who has the stones to play a low owned Hart? As someone who was burned by it the other day, I’m tempted. Lol

  • frugal

    @maddysdaddy0914 said...

    if I recall correctly Luka and Brook smashed in this matchup last time they played.

    Hard to get off of Randle. Fox at that price is so tempting.

    Who has the stones to play a low owned Hart? As someone who was burned by it the other day, I’m tempted. Lol

    NOP situation very different than last game with Zion and potentially Bledsoe back.

  • monarch

    @frugal said...

    I don’t believe the Harden trade is finalized so none of the new guys are available for their new teams yet. I have a feeling there’s going to be an issue here which prolongs the settlement as trading injured players (Exum) is tricky unless the receiving team doesn’t really care about playing them.

    Okay I am buying into this then. Its happening. Cleveland going to showcase Drum unless you guys can convince me otherwise.

    https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/andre-drummond-dk-game-log-vs-mitchell-robinson

  • jdtrey

    Zo still out, Bled still questionable and NAW still cheap!
    With Juancho out, that’s what 28 minutes? Bump to Vanderbilt at all or minutes mostly go elsewhere?
    Happy Friday :)

  • dominicanpapi

    Initial thoughts:

    Not really on anyone from the Celtics or Magic unless the entire Celtics front court is out again, then I would like Vuc. If all the bigs with the exception of Thompson are out, then Tristan becomes a really solid value play.

    Knicks/Cavs – it would be Randle for me, Osman is 5100 on FD still and SF eligible now (again). FWIW, Drummond did put up a 60 spot against the Knicks earlier this year.

    Grizzlies/Wolves – we just saw this game two nights ago. With Rubio out, that opens up Edwards as a potential value play. I think you could see Malik playing backup point and getting more minutes. Clarke is still 5600, he had a monster game the other night against this same team and makes for an excellent PF 2. KAT would be an excellent play, not sure if I’m going all the way up there yet.

    Bulls/OKC – I’ve played Shai twice all year. He’s always been priced in the high 8K’s, but he’s 8200 on FD now. I really like him at this spot against a team that doesn’t play any defense.

    Hawks/Jazz – I love the Jazz here. Jingles is out so Clarkson is a lock and load for me. You can make a case for Conley, a double stack of Mitchell and Clarkson on FD, Gobert and even Royce O’Neale.

    Pels/Lakers – with Zion back, not sure if I’m going here. May fade the game completely. NAW is 5300 on FD, and Clarkson is $100 less.

    Clippers/Kings – late night hammer. Hopefully we get the Bev news early. Keep in mind, Lou is questionable with a hip. Should both players be out, I think Kennard becomes a really solid value play on FD at 3700. I think you need exposure here, I do like a Beasley/Osman play on SF but I feel like Kawhi looks really nice here. Kings play no defense whatsoever.

    Bucks/Mavs – I put this one last b/c I’m not sure what to make of this game yet. Luka is 11.6 on FD, Giannis is 11.3 If you wanted to make a game stack, it’s going to be very expensive. Even if I wanted to play THJ, he’s 6500. Maybe Middleton at 7400? Maybe WCS at 5K? It’s just a really expensive game…

  • jd1984

    @frugal said...

    OK, my model seems to have enough data to be working correctly so I’ll start dropping some value reports on a semi regular basis. This doesn’t consider replacement starters (any time a team has less than 10 available and is starting min salary players, lock them in and don’t look back), just a first run where my model believes guys are underpriced based on projected outcome and the reason. This is based on DK/Yahoo pricing and points.

    Brandon Clarke 6.1 DK / 20 Y- Clarke has been averaging 32.2/33.5 over the last 5 games and gets a prime matchup. Clarke’s offensive profile is all about scoring inside where he takes 43% of his FGAs at the rim making a respectable 65%. Opponents are attacking MIN at the rim 1.09X league average and hitting them at 1.04X league average. Additionally, MIN is giving up 1.06X league average rebounds to opponent bigs. I like Clarke’s chance of hitting 38+ DK/40+ Yahoo tonight, my model has him as the top midrange value play of the night.

    Willie Cauley-Stein 4.5 DK / 11 Y – WCS is only in play if Kleber and Powell are still out where he should see heavy minutes as the starting C for DAL. MIL is a flat 1X rebounding to opposing Cs, but given WCS strong performance last game I like his chances at outperforming MIL avg here. Just like last season, the MIL D is all about clogging the lane and forcing opponents to beat them from 3. With Doncic 3 pointer starting to look better after a slow start and the return of KP, MIL will have to adjust their game plan tonight to focus a little more on contesting the 3 which should open things up slightly for WCS. I think he has a good chance of hitting 27+ DK / 30+ Y (again, assuming Kleber and Powell are still out)

    Other options:

    Yahoo – Tyus Jones, Mitchell Robinson, Pat Bev (Questionable)
    DK – Pat Bev (Questionable), Al Horford, Nick Batum

    Great info thanks

  • frugal

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Not really on anyone from the Celtics or Magic unless the entire Celtics front court is out again, then I would like Vuc.

    If Brown plays, his usage is going to be sky high.

  • jdtrey

    Ja questionable tonight? Holy hell let the poor kid recover!
    2 weeks is not enough time to recover from a grade 2 sprain.

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