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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    Haha…I just found it funny that there was literally an entire page of posts saying, I agree with this post.

    Honestly, this is why I like the forum…I had no idea who this guy was, until everyone was saying not to play him..I had to look him up. Now that I looked him up here’s my 2 cents….1st penny…this guy will not be highly owned..10 percentish give or take 5%.

    2nd penny…I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss this guy as a play here. If speights is out again, he’ll see 20 minutes. His coach said he’s gonna give him a look. And he’s 3300…I mean he’d literally have to foul out in the first half for him to destroy your lineup. Would 14 points be so terrible? Obviously I would not expect 4 blocks or a double double, yet the Cavs play fast, the spread suggests a possible blowout, I’m certainly not going all in, yet 15 percentish (give or take 5% 😎) is where I’ll be, and be happy with whatever he does.

    IMO 14pts isn’t going to win you a GPP, typically. On a short slate? MAYBE. But i still doubt it. But I can kind of see what you’re saying, it won’t hurt to have him in a LU if you’re playing multiple…more so if Speights is out again

  • RiskyBiscuits

    @Njsum1 said...

    Haha…I just found it funny that there was literally an entire page of posts saying, I agree with this post.

    Honestly, this is why I like the forum…I had no idea who this guy was, until everyone was saying not to play him..I had to look him up. Now that I looked him up here’s my 2 cents….1st penny…this guy will not be highly owned..10 percentish give or take 5%.

    2nd penny…I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss this guy as a play here. If sleights is out again, he’ll see 20 minutes. His coach said he’s gonna give him a look. And he’s 3300…I mean he’d literally have to foul out in the first half for him to destroy your lineup. Would 14 points be so terrible? Obviously I would expect 4 blocks or a double double, yet the Cavs play fast, the spread suggests a possible blowout, I’m certainly not going all in, yet percentish (five or take 5% 😎) and be happy with whatever he does.

    Completely agree with you. Except, yes, 14 points is terrible to me. Plus, in my head, it would be 14 points, minus the points I would have had if I avoided him. Putting him in the negative. The only reason I ever play guys like Davis is because I think he’s going to actually bring a smile to my face when I check LUs.

  • bcjmu

    Anyone on Wiggins tonight?

  • Bnett2210

    @Todd_Opong said...

    You are absolutely correct. I’ve been doing much better lately when I use those resources more as confirmations and additional sources of information rather than treating them as the Gospel.

    Yeop, the more you research and play the better the judgement. First starting out I’ve had podcast talk me off of guys I liked and then the guy I liked go off and would been the difference in min cash or 1k plus, I listen to podcast and research after I’ve looked over the slate first and then when I like something and every thing else seems to line up with that thought, I usually roll with it.

  • RiskyBiscuits

    @elving188 said...

    Not for me lol. I’d rather roll with Rozier at only $500 more on FD. & also take Brown. If larken has a career game, so be it.

    But I hate to speculate too much before we know any news. Basically what I think is that Rozier is in play if EITHER Kyrie or Smart are ruled out

    Okay. Your right. I would definitely be overthinking it. This to me, is why I like forum. To have someone tell you to lay back sometimes.

  • mbunner23

    @elving188 said...

    IMO 14pts isn’t going to win you a GPP, typically. On a short slate? MAYBE. But i still doubt it. But I can kind of see what you’re saying, it won’t hurt to have him in a LU if you’re playing multiple…more so if Speights is out again

    Exactly. I play one to two lineups a night. Tough to go with Birch if only you are playing a couple lines. The 4 blocks in 18 min isn’t sustainable.

  • yanksfan1

    If Kyrie and Smart are out, probably gonna go with Rozier and Horford on most of my lineups

  • Bnett2210

    @bcjmu said...

    Anyone on Wiggins tonight?

    I mentioned him earlier, I like him. I’ve been trying to figure out who is guarding him because CP3 won’t be or Luc won’t be I don’t think, so without Ariza and Green, I like whatever matchup he has.

  • Njsum1

    @RiskyBiscuits said...

    Completely agree with you. Except, yes, 14 points is terrible to me. Plus, in my head, it would be 14 points, minus the points I would have had if I avoided him. Putting him in the negative. The only reason I ever play guys like Davis is because I think he’s going to actually bring a smile to my face when I check LUs.

    I hear ya…think of it like this…I had Jordan bell in 5 lineups last night, and 2 of them cashed. That’s 2 lineups with a zero from a $4500 player making the top 25%. So even if he gets 10 points it’s certainly not any worse than a 0. Plus he’s 1200 cheaper. Again, we all agree it’s not an all in play, yet he’s so cheap even if he you had him in 3 lineups and he put up a 0, id bet at least one of those would still cash.

  • Njsum1

    @mbunner23 said...

    Exactly. I play one to two lineups a night. Tough to go with Birch if only you are playing a couple lines. The 4 blocks in 18 min isn’t sustainable.

    What do you mean, 4 is playing it safe my model has him for 5 tonight. My model is never wrong 😁

    In all seriousness, I understand if you only do a couple of lineups, not playing him. I’ll probably do 10 tonight and use him in 2

  • RiskyBiscuits

    @Njsum1 said...

    I hear ya…think of it like this…I had Jordan bell in 5 lineups last night, and 2 of them cashed. That’s 2 lineups with a zero from a $4500 player making the top 25%. So even if he gets 10 points it’s certainly not any worse than a 0. Plus he’s 1200 cheaper. Again, we all agree it’s not an all in play, yet he’s so cheap even if he you had him in 3 lineups and he put up a 0, id bet at least one of those would still cash.

    I understand what your saying. But I think we can both agree, we aren’t trying to roster guys who we think will put up 0 to 10 FP.

  • neccos

    @elving188 said...

    I do one every night before I go to bed

    But I’d also be careful listening to podcast, etc. Don’t let what they say completely take you off something you’re feeling or that you think is a good play, the experts aren’t always right and anything can happen.

    Perfect example.. 3 mins before lock last night..I was deciding between Evans & Hill. My gut said to play Hill..but in this case I went with Evans because the coach said he was going to be getting his younger players more time..Guess what? Hill saw 30+ mins and scored 40+ points and Evans ended up with 14 and I was 5 points off the cash line :)

    I agree with this completely….the number of times I’ve changed up really decent LU’s due to the talking masses is disgusting…this is 100% my fault as I’m the one setting my lineup, but it really is so damn easy to get wrapped up in posts that say “player X is absolutely SMASHING tonight, book it” or subsequent injury news opens up value, even when you know that value never does anything with those extra minutes. cough PJ Tucker. My advice is to make at least one lineup you feel really good about and don’t touch it, unless a guy on your team is ruled out. Then if you want to take the little nuggets from podcasts and forums and form a new lineup, then do that. I played Bell last night, but like elving said, my gut was telling me not to. I need to heed my own advice better and just stick with it.

  • RiskyBiscuits

    @Njsum1 said...

    What do you mean, 4 is playing it safe my model has him for 5 tonight. My model is never wrong 😁

    In all seriousness, I understand if you only do a couple of lineups, not playing him. I’ll probably do 10 tonight and use him in 2

    I also only do 1 LU a night. Maybe 2. So I’m coming at it with that perspective.

  • malickiville

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I mentioned him earlier, I like him. I’ve been trying to figure out who is guarding him because CP3 won’t be or Luc won’t be I don’t think, so without Ariza and Green, I like whatever matchup he has.

    This is meant for the Wiggins post

    His price is down closer to where it should be on DK at 5.8k as he is very scoring dependent. He can get to 40dkp here and there, but usually hits mid 20’s for me. He cost me quite a bit last game finishing with 22 dkp

    He’s a GPP guy for me if I use him

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    I hear ya…think of it like this…I had Jordan bell in 5 lineups last night, and 2 of them cashed. That’s 2 lineups with a zero from a $4500 player making the top 25%. So even if he gets 10 points it’s certainly not any worse than a 0. Plus he’s 1200 cheaper. Again, we all agree it’s not an all in play, yet he’s so cheap even if he you had him in 3 lineups and he put up a 0, id bet at least one of those would still cash.

    Yeah, I think usually the only way it works is if the guy that you pay down for like we’re talking about scores let’s say your 14 or 15..allows you to pay up to a guy who goes off for like 60-70, kind of making up for it.

    Like the other night when AD had that 75pt game, the winning LU had Canaan..who was 3.6k (FD) only scored 20..and yeah that’s more than 5x at his salary but typically having a 20pt spot on your LU you’re def not winning. but in this case it allowed him pay up for AD (75)& Jimmy (63) who both had monster games that night

  • RiskyBiscuits

    The more I look at Capela, the less I want to play him. His career splits against MIN are not very good. Nene is back. I dont know.

  • Njsum1

    @RiskyBiscuits said...

    I understand what your saying. But I think we can both agree, we aren’t trying to roster guys who we think will put up 0 to 10 FP.

    Of course…maybe I also wasn’t clear. I was listing the 0, 10, and 14 point outcomes as bad/middling outcomes. I would say the possibility of 30 DK points, assuming Speights is out and the coach isn’t bs-ing us, as likely an outcome under those circumstances as say a 7 DK point game. If he’s gonna receive 20 minutes with no Speights IMO a likely outcome would be between 15 and 25 DK points.

  • TeamTarek

    @RiskyBiscuits said...

    The more I look at Capela, the less I want to play him. His career splits against MIN are not very good. Nene is back. I dont know.

    the only positive thing is the price :/ under 6,7k seems to cheap against kat def

  • RiskyBiscuits

    @elving188 said...

    Yeah, I think usually the only way it works is if the guy that you pay down for like we’re talking about scores let’s say your 14 or 15..allows you to pay up to a guy who goes off for like 60-20, kind of making up for it.

    Like the other night when AD had that 75pt game, the winning LU had Canaan..who was 3.6k (FD) only scored 20..and yeah that’s more than 5x at his salary but typically having a 20pt spot on your LU you’re def not winning. but in this case it allowed him pay up for AD & Jimmy who both had monster games that night

    Really, it would be better if you could just not use one of the roster spots, and just put your money into the others.

  • RandysCrow

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Njsum1 said...

    I hear ya…think of it like this…I had Jordan bell in 5 lineups last night, and 2 of them cashed. That’s 2 lineups with a zero from a $4500 player making the top 25%.

    I think that had to do more with a lot of other guys under-performing as well so the Bell “under-performance wasn’t as noticeable…..

    IMO

  • kps3205s

    I’m sure most of you on here know about Swish Analytics but I just learned of this and sharing just in case. Personally like the points projections they feel is needed to cash which gives me an idea of where I will need to be with my minimal low $$$ LU’s.

    https://swishanalytics.com/optimus/nba/daily-fantasy-lineup-results

  • RiskyBiscuits

    @TeamTarek said...

    the only positive thing is the price :/ under 6,7k seems to cheap against kat def

    I know I know. That is the only reason Im on the fence. I just hate myself when I play him in this situation, then when hes on the bench doing nothing for me, Im yelling at my dog that I should have played my research.

  • RandysCrow

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    So Ryan Anderson at home…..even with the loss of two players….still not a good play right?!!

  • KindGuy

    @neccos said...

    I played Bell last night, but like elving said, my gut was telling me not to. I need to heed my own advice better and just stick with it.

    Bell got injured first freaking play of the game lol

  • mattyice522

    @RiskyBiscuits said...

    I understand what your saying. But I think we can both agree, we aren’t trying to roster guys who we think will put up 0 to 10 FP.

    during the playoffs last year and some players were 2000$ I was happy taking a 0 in certain circumstances if it meant fitting LeBron and RWB in a lineup for example

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