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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    9:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 6 ) at Utah ( -6 ) — T: 217.5
    9:00 PM EST : Oklahoma City ( 9.5 ) at Denver ( -9.5 ) — T: 220.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for this slate. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • 866

    I don’t use any services, projections, etc. I know my NBA. I’ll get there, and have some big ones this season. Keep plugging. I make my picks based on the pricings #1 and matchups.. always try to identify those low priced and low-owned values. Tomorrow I was shocked to see JA at only 7300. Have to have JA, 100% Tomorrow. Also the X Tillman chalk mid 3s. Just like I’ll have O Huerter at 9500 lol Like G S to beat S A so I still like Curry at 9700, Dray 5400 and Wise-Man 4600 only. Some Paschalls 4300. I’ll keep taking my chances against what computers are telling people to do, when it comes to sports and NBA. Any time I lose money which happens often, I feel surprised to be honest. A few big hits have offset most of the losses though. Have to trust your reads and fire the bullets. My player pools have also been way too wide and varied. Gonna shore that up.

  • gaelicgirl

    @BazookaDad said...

    45 tickets for me for the FD contest, cost me 15$ in actual cash. 141$ out, I did not have enough Millsap and I had way too much Jamal Murray.

    That’s a nice profit, congrats!

  • BazookaDad

    @gaelicgirl said...

    That’s a nice profit, congrats!

    Thanks and i’m a single entry low stake player, just a casual player so this helps the bankroll. I got super lucky on first few nights of NBA and got like 400$ of tickets for all kinds of things for less then 50$. I still got some UFC and Nascar ones for February, all a freeroll at this point and feels good.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 282

      RG Overall Ranking

    Maybe we haven’t heard from irrigator in a while because he’s in contract negotiations to revamp the rotogrinders projections. I don’t use them or any personally. Those getting hosed by them at the moment should maybe take tomorrow off using them and see what happens. Apparently it can’t get any worse 🤷🏻‍♂️

  • damionismyname

    oh man, glad this terrible slate is over. lost a few dollars. hope tomorrow is better.

  • rjschick92

    @ImADonk11 said...

    Lineup HQ has been doing this a ton lately. If you don’t manually adjust you are going to guarantee yourself a losing night with the values it wants to give you. That one night Grant Williams was the top value with his 5 FPS. Kept having to push it down but still ended with a good bit that night. Same thing with Muscala tonight, was giving me a 100% as well. Ended at like 40. A few weeks ago I remember it was like 4 nights in a row that one of the top values gave like single digits FPs. I’m really starting to question them. And this isn’t results oriented bc each value play was beyond highly questionable and a terrible FPPM player. This is the first year I’ve used it so I’m trying to stick with it but I have to admit it’s beginning to be kind of costly. Is there anyway we can just remove the projections and build with the player pool and percentages?

    Because they want you to lose.

    Nobody would disclose true under the radar value plays for the masses to consume.

    These services are designed to get as many people as possible on bad chalk value plays while smart money has nothing to do with them.

  • bazerko

    That’s actually a thing. SVG would rather play tighter D in the paint and give up 3 pointers. I guess his logic is to prevent the high percentage shots, while letting teams shoot the low percentage ones.

    TLDR: play 3pt shooters vs New Orleans

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 282

      RG Overall Ranking

    @rjschick92 said...

    Because they want you to lose.

    Nobody would disclose true under the radar value plays for the masses to consume.

    These services are designed to get as many people as possible on bad chalk value plays while smart money has nothing to do with them.

    That seems like a little much. Who are the people behind “these services” and what do they gain by putting out a poor product. I think they’re probably just getting lazy and/or need to upgrade their talent on the back end. I’m not saying it’s not possible that’s the case but I don’t really buy it. I usually like your takes btw

  • Calicapo

    Conley conned me, tonight

  • ImADonk11

    • 230

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #12

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @rjschick92 said...

    Because they want you to lose.

    Nobody would disclose true under the radar value plays for the masses to consume.

    These services are designed to get as many people as possible on bad chalk value plays while smart money has nothing to do with them.

    That is pretty absurd. Lol they aren’t hiding these all great value plays from me and getting me onto anyone I don’t want. We all know who is seeing minutes bumps and usage bumps anyways it’s not really that hard. For me it is about efficiency and making LUs. They don’t put me on any play. This is my first year using lineup HQ as I said bc I wanted to not have my head spinning making tons of LUs by hand plus when doing it by hand you can really lose count of your exposure and end up with much more of someone than you want. Also it is way more time consuming to MME by hand. I don’t use HQ to give me the most “optimal” LU as I usually completely disagree with that. I use it to create a pool and make LUs with those selected players. I also make 10-15 groups and rules. It’s just sometimes after news hits when re-running LUs if you don’t make enough adjustments and rules then it can give you more exposure to players you don’t want. That’s all I’m saying. They really shouldn’t be suggesting such low FPPM players. And it’s not like I don’t recognize it and fix it, just it gets annoying having to rerun it so many times close to lock. And I’m also just saying a little accountability should he had with some of these awful value plays HQ is pushing out. But they aren’t out to get us and make us lose money lol. But you do you I guess. Doing what you are suggesting would be the complete opposite of a good sustainable business model. Makes 0 sense.

  • Calicapo

    @ImADonk11 said...

    That is pretty absurd. Lol they aren’t hiding these all great value plays from me and getting me onto anyone I don’t want. We all know who is seeing minutes bumps and usage bumps anyways it’s not really that hard. For me it is about efficiency and making LUs. They don’t put me on any play. This is my first year using lineup HQ as I said bc I wanted to not have my head spinning making tons of LUs by hand plus when doing it by hand you can really lose count of your exposure and end up with much more of someone than you want. Also it is way more time consuming to MME by hand. I don’t use HQ to give me the most “optimal” LU as I usually completely disagree with that. I use it to create a pool and make LUs with those selected players. I also make 10-15 groups and rules. It’s just sometimes after news hits when re-running LUs if you don’t make enough adjustments and rules then it can give you more exposure to players you don’t want. That’s all I’m saying. They really shouldn’t be suggesting such low FPPM players. And it’s not like I don’t recognize it and fix it, just it gets annoying having to rerun it so many times close to lock. And I’m also just saying a little accountability should he had with some of these awful value plays HQ is pushing out. But they aren’t out to get us and make us lose money lol. But you do you I guess. Doing what you are suggesting would be the complete opposite of a good sustainable business model. Makes 0 sense.

    The house never loses

  • BiGtIGeRs

    Tonight should be fun

  • emoney1214

    For me, the main reason for premium is to see what the masses are on and to make sure I don’t miss anything. They are telling you the obvious plays. For example, I saw people were on Wiseman the other night and I had 0 because of matchup, foul trouble, and preferred lopez and d jordan for similar price. I really like noto and meansy but I’m on most of their core plays before I see them. I want to see their ideas though to confirm my thought process. There is a razor thin edge now. Why do you think the top players all either have their own site or are experts on some site? They aren’t making enough money playing alone. They aren’t trying to make you lose. Guys who were successful playing cash games with obvious plays in the past aren’t gonna make it now. Everyone is on the cash plays unless you can somehow predict the bad chalk
    .

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