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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    8:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -7 ) at Minnesota ( 7 ) — T: 224
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  • theIrrigator

    • 904

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    • Ranked #29

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    @Njsum1 said...

    BBM has him as questionable…..easy game versus Detroit, back to back, and he took some hits/falls last night.

    So no news?

  • realphipps

    VA folks can pre-register with DK Sportsbook today and get a free $100 bet when they launch next week.

  • Njsum1

    @theIrrigator said...

    So no news?

    Nothing from the team yet

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

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    • Ranked #29

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    Did he suffer an injury and have to go to the locker room?

  • Njsum1

    @theIrrigator said...

    Did he suffer an injury and have to go to the locker room?

    No

    Good chance he rests…imo 50/50..if I had to guess

  • bdf

    @deepfat said...

    I’ve been playing NBA DFS for about a year and a half and for the last year really took a deep dive into winning GPP lineups. Not for this to sound like sour grapes but it seems that these winning LU’s have the obvious free square plays but also guys that don’t pop on projections and almost seem random.

    For example last night in one GPP the winning lineup had guys like Boogie, Luka, Jaylen but also guys like Mikal Bridges vs Den and Dort vs LAC. I guess my missing link is how are these guys saying “yep, I’m going with that” when they are both terrible matchups on paper? I refuse to believe that it’s just dumb luck and those players just happen to stick when thrown up against the wall.

    I think when people are max entering, they’ll throw stuff at the wall like that. Hard to find the right punts on a regular basis when you’re doing 1-3 lineups like a lot of us. I thought about Dort since he’s put together a few good games in a row but didn’t pull the trigger.

  • packdog

    There can only be Nunn!

    Can’t get away from him on this run. Pair him with Durant and work from there

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

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    • Ranked #29

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    @Njsum1 said...

    No

    Good chance he rests…imo 50/50..if I had to guess

    He has played on a couple B2B’s already this year and only played 30 mins yesterday. I’m gonna add him to the player pool and give him mins and a projection for now

  • Njsum1

    @packdog said...

    There can only be Nunn!

    Can’t get away from him on this run. Pair him with Durant and work from there

    Yeah I had him in like 6/8 on DK last night. The Butler is out again, so seems like he’s worth a shot 🤷‍♂️

  • deepfat

    @Njsum1 said...

    Are you looking at 150 max GPP’s?

    If so, I’ll answer your question…..

    they’re not saying anything, they have a core, and then the optimizer probably throws in a few random plays to round out some lineups and they go with it.

    You can also do a lot with 150 lineups. So maybe they stack some games around their core that they know have a low chance of paying off, yet if they do, it gives them a high chance at a top finish.

    It takes some luck to win a GPP, terrible plays going off, overtime, etc. It’s rare you’ll look at a winning lineup and say, I can see all the reasons for those plays. Most of the time Chaos Theory takes hold. Meaning, something random, that no one expects to happen, happens, which catapults someone to a win.

    No max tourneys for me. I’m a single entry pleb lol.

  • Njsum1

    @theIrrigator said...

    He has played on a couple B2B’s already this year and only played 30 mins yesterday. I’m gonna add him to the player pool and give him mins and a projection for now

    Yeah 50/50 I’m thinking, so I wouldn’t remove him til I heard something from the team.

    They just don’t need him tonight. They can beat Detroit without him and Simmons. Doesn’t mean he won’t play. I just hope he doesn’t 😉

  • Njsum1

    @deepfat said...

    No max tourneys for me. I’m a single entry pleb lol.

    Haha…I was actually asking if the GPP’s you were looking at with the off the wall plays were 150 max, not if you were max entering.

    If they were single entry, Many people also bring the approach of playing low percentage plays that Don’t hit often, yet when they do give them a good chance of shooting to the top of the leaderboard.

    Also, some people make like hundreds of lineups per night, and Randomly place them in different GPP’s. So if it was single entry GPP’s you were looking at, it could also be a lineup where the optimizer added in some random plays around a core 🤷‍♂️

  • HungryHungryHip

    @theIrrigator said...

    He has played on a couple B2B’s already this year and only played 30 mins yesterday. I’m gonna add him to the player pool and give him mins and a projection for now

    If he plays he’s going to eat Detroit’s front court alive

  • Njsum1

    @HungryHungryHip said...

    If he plays he’s going to eat Detroit’s front court alive

    Or we can get Dwight for 4300?

  • jdtrey

    @monarch said...

    Also wanted to point out this is the 42nd anniversary of the great Gus Williams performance where he recorded eight steals in a half in a big win over the Washington Bullets. Have to think many players on todays slate will be gunning for that achievement.

    Do you ever get bored acting like a complete child?
    No one scored 50 but I don’t think anyone outside of Dipo ended up under value champ.
    Troll elsewhere :)

  • BiGtIGeRs

    @jdtrey said...

    Do you ever get bored acting like a complete child?
    No one scored 50 but I don’t think anyone outside of Dipo ended up under value champ.
    Troll elsewhere :)

  • jv21

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @deepfat said...

    I’ve been playing NBA DFS for about a year and a half and for the last year really took a deep dive into winning GPP lineups. Not for this to sound like sour grapes but it seems that these winning LU’s have the obvious free square plays but also guys that don’t pop on projections and almost seem random.

    For example last night in one GPP the winning lineup had guys like Boogie, Luka, Jaylen but also guys like Mikal Bridges vs Den and Dort vs LAC. I guess my missing link is how are these guys saying “yep, I’m going with that” when they are both terrible matchups on paper? I refuse to believe that it’s just dumb luck and those players just happen to stick when thrown up against the wall.

    Something people to forget about dfs is that its also a math problem. Jaylen Brown and Jae’sean Tate were popping in models for FD. Why? If you were a box score watcher, you would think its wrong cause Jaylen on scored 32.5 in the same matchup before. I did. Well, he was popping cause of his price and position. Both were to good of a value compared to other SFs. Apply that across positions and you it explains why players get rosters. Another example, Boogie was a top player cause he was cheap, you could had cross position pivot to Lamb, Powell, Tate, Brunson. Now that frees up your Center spot for a Jokic who can score 60 FP. This is something I have been applying to my own process and its doing ok.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    For those that 150 max MME on Fanduel, what do you think of the $2.22 Pick and Roll being a 150 max now instead of 20 max? Any thoughts on the pay structure? $333 to win $2000, only 10,725 entries. I am really tempted since I am already making 150 lineups for the 5 cent and 25 cent.

  • HungryHungryHip

    @jv21 said...

    For those that 150 max MME on Fanduel, what do you think of the $2.22 Pick and Roll being a 150 max now instead of 20 max? Any thoughts on the pay structure? $333 to win $2000, only 10,725 entries. I am really tempted since I am already making 150 lineups for the 5 cent and 25 cent.

    I was surprised by it being 150 as well. This will be the first time I’ve maxed entered a 150 on NBA We’ll see how it goes but I mostly like the payout structure.

  • Pidinolo

    @deepfat said...

    I’ve been playing NBA DFS for about a year and a half and for the last year really took a deep dive into winning GPP lineups. Not for this to sound like sour grapes but it seems that these winning LU’s have the obvious free square plays but also guys that don’t pop on projections and almost seem random.

    For example last night in one GPP the winning lineup had guys like Boogie, Luka, Jaylen but also guys like Mikal Bridges vs Den and Dort vs LAC. I guess my missing link is how are these guys saying “yep, I’m going with that” when they are both terrible matchups on paper? I refuse to believe that it’s just dumb luck and those players just happen to stick when thrown up against the wall.

    Building lineups that have every single guy projected at premiums is hard to do using the majority of your salary. My view is they are playing their core and mixing in various players that pop to them for whatever reason. Sometimes I fill in guys for the sole reason I know what they are capable of on any given day, and I happened to land on them and refuse to change the rest of my build. Is that profitable or long term sustainable ? Probably not because I rarely max enter or even do more then 20 max gpp. I have won by dumb luck, I have won by random variance going my way, I have won by good game flow predictions that go against the fields perception of what is good on any given night. I have also had massive down swings when I get tunnel visioned on my specific views. Being open minded and realizing the game is so fluid that what worked 2 days ago in the very same matchup might fall apart a few days later. Just be patient and be aware of what the field believes is good and decide for yourself.the problem too many people in fantasy make is relying on others projections. They are just that…projections.

  • Njsum1

    @jdtrey said...

    Do you ever get bored acting like a complete child?
    No one scored 50 but I don’t think anyone outside of Dipo ended up under value champ.
    Troll elsewhere :)

    I’ve been doing this for over 5 years, and IMO and from my experience, narratives rarely work. It has to be the perfect situation, like player is mad at old team, the matchup is good, and some players on his new team are out. Meaning they guy was going to be a good play anyway.

    Where I agree with you, is that I think narratives ARE worth mentioning cause it’s fun to read about, and adds some interesting storylines to the message board. I personally enjoy reading about narratives.

    On occasion, when the player says, yeah I’m going for this record or playing to honor this guy, then at least you know they’re likely to shoot more. If that translates into more FP’s depends on whether the shot is falling. Yet still worth paying attention to.

    Also a player’s last game before retirement is a good narrative, especially if the game is meaningless. Cause you know he’ll be featured. Yet these are rare and only occur at the end of season.

    If we look at the players I remember you mentioning yesterday objectively (Ky, Dipo, and Booker)

    Kyrie was only 9k and Durant was out. He was going to chuck no matter what.

    Booker was 7500 (deep discount on DK) and took around his average shot attempts. Maybe a few more, yet he also played a few minutes more. Had a good game yet not exceptional.

    And Dipo had an off game.

    So the narratives didn’t really play a role from what I can tell.

    I’m not trying to argue with you, as there are a few times, maybe 2-4 per season where the narrative itself is worth making a play on.

    Yet I want others who read this and struggle with NBA DFS to understand that playing narratives is a losing proposition save for the rare exceptions mentioned above. So they’re not always useless.

    Not sure if you were on this message board a few years back, yet I used to do this bit everytime someone mentioned a narrative, where I’d respond with something like….

    “Yep, I heard Embiid’s cousin’s roommates Dog is going to be at the game tonight, and he used to love playing frisbee with that Pup, so I’m sure he’ll be extra motivated to block a few more shots tonight.”

    I would do that to make other posters laugh, yet to also illustrate that putting your faith in narratives wasn’t the best idea.

    That’s just my opinion on narratives. Obviously you’re entitled to yours. Not trying to start a beef, just wanted to put some reasoning behind why I generally don’t believe in narratives, and when I’ll give them some weight. 👍

  • Njsum1

    Mikal bridges for 5400 if Booker misses?

    Concerned about the OT last night, yet he’s been in great form, should play big minutes and garner extra usage. Just hope the legs aren’t tired

  • Brendan239

    Why did PHX go from -1 to +2.5? Every other game set to be a “blowout”? I think the Jazz might be a good spot to stack Mitch/Jingles (price and minutes going up). High total and I like the Jazz to cover the high #. Run it back w Steph for a 60 burger, PG isn’t very sexy today and he’s the best pivot off of Luka/Kyrie. Prob Oubre too. Mitch/Jingles/Chef/Oubre.

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

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    • Ranked #29

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    Joel Embiid (back) listed questionable Saturday. https://t.co/pwFzaj4hvE

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

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    Blake Griffin (injury management) listed out Saturday. https://t.co/LrHEcxbSYA

    Derrick Rose (knee) listed out Saturday. https://t.co/mZd28oVPDa

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