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  • Pandamonious

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  • tmarohl

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Without Mitchell the Mavs can put DFS on Conley.

    I forgot he was back.

  • frugal

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Without Mitchell the Mavs can put DFS on Conley.

    It’s not even that, the Mavs have been running an extremely complex switching system to keep the best defender on the ball handler they can. Actually quite fun to watch if you pay attention to it. When it clicks, the D looks almost predictive of where the ball is going to move. That said, we’ve seen almost none of it since they got hit with Covid.

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    Luka has actually been playing far better defense this year than last (and we know no teams play pure man assigned defense), but the Mavs have been a tale of 2 teams this season. Before they got hit with COVID they ranked 5th best defense, after 8th worst. I don’t know what they’re going to look like tonight with almost everyone back. My guess it will take a few games but their defense is going to return to top 10.

    So with all of these guys back, and Luka’s price increase, also against the slow paced Jazz, we should stay away from Luka, correct?

  • frugal

    @tmarohl said...

    So with all of these guys back, and Luka’s price increase, also against the slow paced Jazz, we should stay away from Luka, correct?

    Yeah, I will be fading. Mavs had a meeting after last game, nothing specific leaked, but I have a strong feeling it was addressing KP and THJ needing to step up and hit open shots, and KP specifically posting up more. That and guys coming back significantly better even if rustty than the teams they’ve been running and I just don’t see it being a Luka has to do it all type game.

  • theIrrigator

    • 476

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #40

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @frugal said...

    Regarding Mitchell out/play Clarkson…isn’t the better play Ingles (or whoever starts) and Bojan? I get that Clarkson will get a little extra run, but don’t we really want to take the guy getting a big minutes boost and/or starters who typically share the floor with Mitchell getting usage bumps?

    I like Ingles the most. I think he probably starts and he is priced the best. If Clarkson starts I will still like Ingles but will also have a little more interest in Conley with how they run their rotations.

  • NarrowJ

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Understandable. He’s probably one of their better shooters though and the Pelicans’ game plan is to allow opposing teams to bomb it from 3. He’s 4300 on FD, Westbrook is out, Neto is questionable/minutes are being monitored. I think Mathews is probably playing 30 minutes tonight at least, possibly more if Neto is also ruled out. Wouldn’t be shocked if he starts tonight.

    Yeah, especially on DK with an extra .5 for every 3 pt make. He’s right at 0.9 FP/Min and I agree he should see at least 30 minutes tonight. He can still go 1 for 9 from three and burn you, of course.

  • Njsum1

    @Pidinolo said...

    Exactly. Large slates take a combo of skill and luck, but plenty of idiots overthink it or randomly force in bad plays. Small slates have to be spot on to even cash most of the time. I don’t think most people realize how bunched up the majority of the field gets in small slates. Last night I had plenty of neto and plenty of rivers, but none in the same lineup.

    I agree with most of this, especially about smaller slates, which is why I really only do 2-4 lineups on smaller slates. I even put Reggie Jackson in one of my 3 DK lineups last night at 6% and that lineup only went 3x. Had him in my Yahoo lineup that didn’t even cash.

    Yet to do really well, even on a large slate you need some lower owned plays going off. You don’t need to overthink, yet you do need to think for yourself and ignore some projections to really hit.

    For example, last large slate I had 40% Luka and 60% Delone Wright. Luka was 18% and Wright was 9%. To me they seemed like really strong plays, even though projections didn’t love them. Pair a few of those plays up with some chalk and you can sneak one near the top. It’s not to often that an all chalk lineup full of obvious plays does anything better than like 3-5x.

  • gaelicgirl

    @tmarohl said...

    So with all of these guys back, and Luka’s price increase, also against the slow paced Jazz, we should stay away from Luka, correct?

    Yes, leave all the Luka for me

  • tmarohl

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Yes, leave all the Luka for me

    You playing Steph and Luka together GG?

  • Njsum1

    @tmarohl said...

    Why isn’t the matchup not great for Conley. No one has ever accused Luka of being a shutdown defensive stopper.

    They tend to limit point guards, frugal gave a good explanation.

    However, Conley is only 6100 on DK, so I’m not fading him. I’ll have a couple of shares

  • jv21

    • Ranked #85

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Play 3 point shooters vs DEN, so Duncan Robinson???

  • Njsum1

    @jv21 said...

    Play 3 point shooters vs DEN, so Duncan Robinson???

    PG’s versus denver…if Dragic and Herro sit…gimme ALL da NUNN.

    If they play gimme NONE da NUNN 😭

  • gaelicgirl

    @tmarohl said...

    You playing Steph and Luka together GG?

    Yep. Here’s the thing I like about small slates on FD: because of the rigid positions, it’s easier to predict where the ownership is going to go. And on small slates, it’s more of a raw points objective than best value. Sure, the high ownership makes it harder to differentiate your LU. But the more games in the small slate, the lower the ownership on any given player is likely to be.

  • frugal

    Actually feels like a pay down day at PG, McConnell’s been playing well and gets a solid matchup. Garland moving back into a starting role. Cole Anthony with a great matchup. All 3 could kill value tonight.

  • Njsum1

    @frugal said...

    Actually feels like a pay down day at PG, McConnell’s been playing well and gets a solid matchup. Garland moving back into a starting role. Cole Anthony with a great matchup. All 3 could kill value tonight.

  • frugal

    @Njsum1 said...

    Ball is on the block and hasn’t really put up many huge games. Give me Bledsoe and Zion from that game.

  • jdtrey

    @frugal said...

    Ball is on the block

    Could be wrong but I think that may be the point .. pissed off he’s being offered around the league again

  • Njsum1

    @frugal said...

    Ball is on the block and hasn’t really put up many huge games. Give me Bledsoe and Zion from that game.

    He’s only been back 3 games from injury. 5600 is a good price.

    I can see it being a bledsoe game as well. 5800 is reasonable for Bledsoe

  • tmarohl

    @gaelicgirl said...

    Yep. Here’s the thing I like about small slates on FD: because of the rigid positions, it’s easier to predict where the ownership is going to go. And on small slates, it’s more of a raw points objective than best value. Sure, the high ownership makes it harder to differentiate your LU. But the more games in the small slate, the lower the ownership on any given player is likely to be.

    Now expand upon that, and play your late night lineup in the main slate as well. Tonight is a perfect night for it, for several reasons.
    1) Minn/GS is projected to be one of the higher scoring games of the slate.
    2) You have extreme value with Washington and good value with Phoenix. Also have some potential nice value on Utah with Spida out.
    3) You can pair up your two favorite players in Steph and Luka, which will be a contrarian build on the main slate.

  • Bodiaz36

    Anyone going back to the well with Delon Wright, or is he overpriced now with Rose back?

  • monarch

    @tmarohl said...

    Why isn’t the matchup not great for Conley. No one has ever accused Luka of being a shutdown defensive stopper.

    Luka doesnt guard anyone. Not a knock on him, he just gets in position to collect the rebound after his other four guys defend and box out. Dallas has defenders, just ask sac puncher Jamal Murray.

  • Njsum1

    @jdtrey said...

    Could be wrong but I think that may be the point .. pissed off he’s being offered around the league again

    Haha, but how do we interpret this? It could make him play well or poorly, depending if he wants to stay or go. His contract is also up at the end of this season.

  • Njsum1

    @Bodiaz36 said...

    Anyone going back to the well with Delon Wright, or is he overpriced now with Rose back?

    He’s a contrarian play, yet not a good play with rose back…IMO

  • Brendan239

    Iggy?

  • monarch

    @frugal said...

    It’s not even that, the Mavs have been running an extremely complex switching system to keep the best defender on the ball handler they can. Actually quite fun to watch if you pay attention to it. When it clicks, the D looks almost predictive of where the ball is going to move. That said, we’ve seen almost none of it since they got hit with Covid.

    Miami does that too. They take away the middle of the floor and just give the other team the elbow extended three. It is a low percentage shot but works really well for me in targeting plays.

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