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  • bhdevault

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  • me_mike84

    @tmarohl said...

    The point was ownership projections have their place, but too many people (including me on occasion) think they matter much more than they do. Rather than focusing on “I don’t want to play this guy because he is chalk”, instead focus on picking the best plays at each position, regardless of ownership. People spend way too much time trying to find that 1% owned guy who is going to go off. Yes, if that happens, you will be in good shape. However, more often than not when that happens, you have a hole or two somewhere else in your lineup and you don’t win anyway. Basically, the players that give you the best fantasy point return per dollar spent. You hit all nine positions on FD like that, you will win, regardless if you have a lower owned guy. Another way of saying, score the most points and don’t worry so much about if a guy is chalk.

    i gotcha – well said. appreciate it, thanks !!

  • tmarohl

    @superstars92 said...

    Wait are you saying you are just literally using the optimizer to generate your lineups? In that case, it’s strictly better to use the optimizer since your head can’t come up with 50 different combinations.

    I just assumed you meant you wanted the projections to be from a different source than yourself, which is what’s meant when people say optimizer here. Like all those dupes in cash games are because they aren’t using their own projections.

    I have been playing the rotogrinders optimal cash game lineup in single entry’s on DK for a few weeks now. If you go into the discord chat on game night, you will see that just about every user in there is playing that optimal in large field single entry’s. It has been cashing at about 65% for the season. You will see a train of about 200 entry’s every night in the bigger single entry cash games.

  • Ace15

    @superstars92 said...

    I just assumed you meant you wanted the projections to be from a different source than yourself, which is what’s meant when people say optimizer here. Like all those dupes in cash games are because they aren’t using their own projections.

    Ahhhh, got ya. Didn’t realize people were literally just taking someone else’s projections with no tweaking. Don’t play cash so I haven’t seen those trains of dupes

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #56

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Status note: Jayson Tatum (groin) remains doubtful Tuesday.

  • mbunner23

    @tmarohl said...

    I have been playing the rotogrinders optimal cash game lineup in single entry’s on DK for a few weeks now. If you go into the discord chat on game night, you will see that just about every user in there is playing that optimal in large field single entry’s. It has been cashing at about 65% for the season. You will see a train of about 200 entry’s every night in the bigger single entry cash games.

    And IMO, that’s killing DFS.

  • superstars92

    @Ace15 said...

    Ahhhh, got ya. Didn’t realize people were literally just taking someone else’s projections with no tweaking. Don’t play cash so I haven’t seen those trains of dupes

    Yea see @tmarhol’s explanation right above yours.

  • superstars92

    Surprised Ryan Saunders hasn’t been fired yet…..any moment now lol.

    He’s the first coach I have ever witnessed in NBA history to take his starters out of the game, thinking they had won the game, only for them to lose….that alone deserves losing your job…not to mention the team is on a 10 game losing streak with no upside and a C who’s not motivated to play hard on defense for you.

  • siddom

    @superstars92 said...

    Surprised Ryan Saunders hasn’t been fired yet…..any moment now lol.

    the wolves might just be worse than the hawks —- just might!

  • monarch

    I like Marcus Smart. I mentioned this about Ross yesterday but the Heat allow a ton of shots to shooting guards. Ross and Fournier combined to attempt 17 threes yesterday. Smart will be shooting a lot but he also gets peripherals.

    Edit: or maybe Kemba assumes the SG role and hes the play. One of them will do well just not sure yet

  • feezyg

    @superjon said...

    FD is not playing with Zion. His price has jumped up every game since he made his debut. I know he just scored 36, but I still can’t justify paying 6.3k for him.

    I reckon most people that have that mindset will just pivot to Grant for 300 less, who also has had a bump in salary, but one that is warranted based on his production.

    However, the play at PF is probably to take Randle (bigs vs CHA) and pair him with Nance (if Love sits on the B2B).

    This may be the worst advice ive seen of this forum…or…anywhere..really…

  • superstars92

    @mbunner23 said...

    And IMO, that’s killing DFS.

    I don’t disagree with your original statement that it’s making the game less fun since you have to play like huge chunks of lineups (like a 100 person double up is really a 40 person double up), but I guess we just have to adapt and beat it.

    There’s some good ways to beat it. Like use it for your advantage that everyone else is using it. Then make the correct pivots. I have no idea what it had yesterday since I don’t use it, but I assume that it would have had some combination of guys like Hartenstein, Reggie Jackson, or Bruce Brown, because given in my cash games, I see huge trains with these types of builds. Like I said there are usually 4 types of trains, and I don’t know which one’s which optimizer, but it’s going to be probably from the 4 popular optimizer sites. Like I also see a huge train with Bjelica, who is only owned like in that train and in almost no other builds, so maybe that was also part of an optimizer, although not sure which particular one.

    Regardless, you can kind of predict cash game ownership knowing this and you make the correct pivots. I do agree with tmarhol, on average, it’s +EV, but you can be even more +EV if you use it for your advantage and make the right pivots.

    So I guess rather than being purely a math type of game now, you have to factor in some game theory. A good way to start imo is to make a list of users who often times have the same builds every night so you get a sense of which users and how many users use which particular optimizer. It’s like playing poker, seeing who’s aggressive, who’s loose, who raises a lot, who 3-bets a lot, etc., instead now use this to profile DFS players. I have found that the top 3 players (Awesemo, Youdacao, Papagates) play very differenlty. For example, I don’t even see/rarely see if at all, Awesemo in double ups for the full slate, meaning he probably thinks there’s not that much edge in cash games in full slates.

    Anyways, let’s move on from talking about optimizers. That was just my advice and summary above for anyone who’s just getting started.

  • kahlilgedin

    @superstars92 said...

    Yea I just gave some thoughts about it above. The one time you definitely want to use an optimizer is if you have like a ton of lineups (say 50+) and there is last second breaking news. There’s no way to comprehend that so fast and then hand adjust 50 lineups.

    I’ve been generating 50+ lineups for the past month using my own optimizer and process. I usually allocate 5-10 mins before each game locks to adjust my lineups. Some nights my hand adjusted lineups outperform my optimizer other nights the optimizer generates the highest scoring lineup. I think at the end of the day its not so much about the optimizer but more about your process and how you react to late news.

  • superstars92

    @monarch said...

    I like Marcus Smart. I mentioned this about Ross yesterday but the Heat allow a ton of shots to shooting guards. Ross and Fournier combined to attempt 17 threes yesterday. Smart will be shooting a lot but he also gets peripherals.

    Edit: or maybe Kemba assumes the SG role and hes the play. One of them will do well just not sure yet

    Marcus Smart gets a solid percentage (more than a normal player) FPs from Stocks. Does Miami allow a lot of Stocks?

  • kahlilgedin

    @superstars92 said...

    I mean there’s some good ways to beat it. Like use it for your advantage that everyone else is using it. Then make the correct pivots. I have no idea what it had yesterday since I don’t use it, but I assume that it would have had some combination of guys like Hartenstein, Reggie Jackson, or Bruce Brown, because given in my cash games, I see huge trains with these types of builds. Like I said there are usually 4 types of trains, and I don’t know which one’s which optimizer, but it’s going to be probably from the 4 popular optimizer sites. Like I also see a huge train with Bjelica, who is only owned like in that train and in almost no other builds, so maybe that was also part of an optimizer, although not sure which particular one.

    Regardless, you can kind of predict cash game ownership knowing this and you make the correct pivots. I do agree with tmarhol, on average, it’s +EV, but you can be even more +EV if you use it for your advantage and make the right pivots.

    So I guess rather than being purely a math type of game now, you have to factor in some game theory. A good way to start imo is to make a list of users who often times have the same builds every night so you get a sense of which users and how many users use which particular optimizer. It’s like playing poker, seeing who’s aggressive, who’s loose, who raises a lot, who 3-bets a lot, etc., instead now use this to profile DFS players. I have found that the type 3 players (Awesemo, Youdacao, Papagates) play very differenlty. For example, I don’t even see/rarely see if at all, Awesemo in double ups for the full slate, meaning he probably thinks there’s not that much edge in cash games in full slates.

    yeah there is a concept in game theory called the sentiment game. it boils down to picking players you think will win and then pivoting off players you think the crowd is picking due to a sentiment. check it out: https://www.businessinsider.com/ben-hunt-on-the-sentiment-game-2013-11

  • monarch

    @superstars92 said...

    Marcus Smart gets a solid percentage (more than a normal player) FPs from Stocks. Does Miami allow a lot of Stocks?

    Heat are middle of the pack in opponent steals per game. It likely goes up a bit if Butler were to miss. He will get a ton of open looks from three but his price isn’t that friendly on DK.

  • superstars92

    @kahlilgedin said...

    yeah there is a concept in game theory called the sentiment game. it boils down to picking players you think will win and then pivoting off players you think the crowd is picking due to a sentiment. check it out: https://www.businessinsider.com/ben-hunt-on-the-sentiment-game-2013-11

    I do feel like game theory is actually more important in cash games than GPPs. Everyone’s talking about ownership (even today) in GPPs, but in reality, with the concentrated ownership in cash games, it might be more important in cash games since you can jump litearlly 20% of the field on one pivot.

  • mbunner23

    @superstars92 said...

    I mean there’s some good ways to beat it. Like use it for your advantage that everyone else is using it. Then make the correct pivots. I have no idea what it had yesterday since I don’t use it, but I assume that it would have had some combination of guys like Hartenstein, Reggie Jackson, or Bruce Brown, because given in my cash games, I see huge trains with these types of builds. Like I said there are usually 4 types of trains, and I don’t know which one’s which optimizer, but it’s going to be probably from the 4 popular optimizer sites. Like I also see a huge train with Bjelica, who is only owned like in that train and in almost no other builds, so maybe that was also part of an optimizer, although not sure which particular one.

    Regardless, you can kind of predict cash game ownership knowing this and you make the correct pivots. I do agree with tmarhol, on average, it’s +EV, but you can be even more +EV if you use it for your advantage and make the right pivots.

    So I guess rather than being purely a math type of game now, you have to factor in some game theory. A good way to start imo is to make a list of users who often times have the same builds every night so you get a sense of which users and how many users use which particular optimizer. It’s like playing poker, seeing who’s aggressive, who’s loose, who raises a lot, who 3-bets a lot, etc., instead now use this to profile DFS players. I have found that the top 3 players (Awesemo, Youdacao, Papagates) play very differenlty. For example, I don’t even see/rarely see if at all, Awesemo in double ups for the full slate, meaning he probably thinks there’s not that much edge in cash games in full slates.

    Lets take 100 man 50/50s, for example. One night last week, I counted 35 duplicate lineups with 1 lineup and several with another lineup that was very similar. If that optimizer has a cash rate of 65% percent, your chances of consistently beating the optimizer are very low. Especially considering that many people are using it. The funny part was so many people had the same lineup that it cashed less than what the entry was. $2 entry made like 80 cents because so many people had the exact same thing.

    I try to game theory as much as I can. I feel like I’m one of the only players left who hand build one single lineup a night. Some nights my lineup is very close to the optimizer lineup and has been the exact same a couple times but it’s been rough trying to take down that 35 entry train, especially the past few weeks. Early in the season, I don’t believe it was an issue.

  • superstars92

    Also I’m not joking but Cam Reddish has been pretty decent recently. Still won’t make my pool though, but just saying (you know how I feel about him).

    Also, Kyle Lowry looks like in a great spot vs. Atlanta and Trae Young at that price on DK. He’ll be chalky though. I’m now sure since I’m going with Lowry, FVV will drop 60 FPs and Lowry will get 30 =(

  • feekdogg

    @superstars92 said...

    Surprised Ryan Saunders hasn’t been fired yet…..any moment now lol.

    He’s the first coach I have ever witnessed in NBA history to take his starters out of the game, thinking they had won the game, only for them to lose….that alone deserves losing your job…not to mention the team is on a 10 game losing streak with no upside and a C who’s not motivated to play hard on defense for you.

    I doubt he’ll be fired (not that he shouldn’t be). He’s cheap and Taylor (the Wolves bumbling owner) is just trying to save pennies while he’s still paying Thibs while the team tanks in a season where there’s no one in the lottery that’s really worth tanking for.

  • monarch

    Troy Brown appeals to me vs the Bucks especially with Jordan Mcrae out. Possibly Ish as well and maybe Bertans

  • monarch

    @superstars92 said...

    Also I’m not joking but Cam Reddish has been pretty decent recently. Still won’t make my pool though, but just saying (you know how I feel about him).

    Also, Kyle Lowry looks like in a great spot vs. Atlanta and Trae Young at that price on DK. He’ll be chalky though. I’m now sure since I’m going with Lowry, FVV will drop 60 FPs and Lowry will get 30 =(

    Reddish has been their best perimeter defender. Even better than Hunter

  • superstars92

    @monarch said...

    Reddish has been their best perimeter defender. Even better than Hunter

    Best on the Hawks = worse than the worst on the Raptors

  • Ace15

    @superstars92 said...

    Marcus Smart gets a solid percentage (more than a normal player) FPs from Stocks. Does Miami allow a lot of Stocks?

    They don’t give up blocks and are middle of the back in steals allowed. Now the team you want to target tonight is ATL who are basically top 3 in OPP blocks and steals….which should translate into OG possibly feasting who’s dirt cheap and probably low ownership. I still prefer Powell though, but will have OG too.

  • monarch

    @superstars92 said...

    Best on the Hawks = worse than the worst on the Raptors

    Even you would take Reddish over OG going forward though and OG is often a starter on the Raptors

  • superstars92

    @mbunner23 said...

    Lets take 100 man 50/50s, for example. One night last week, I counted 35 duplicate lineups with 1 lineup and several with another lineup that was very similar. If that optimizer has a cash rate of 65% percent, your chances of consistently beating the optimizer are very low. Especially considering that many people are using it. The funny part was so many people had the same lineup that it cashed less than what the entry was. $2 entry made like 80 cents because so many people had the exact same thing.

    I try to game theory as much as I can. I feel like I’m one of the only players left who hand build one single lineup a night. Some nights my lineup is very close to the optimizer lineup and has been the exact same a couple times but it’s been rough trying to take down that 35 entry train…

    Yea I feel where you are coming from, and I agree it makes it less fun since when you enter a 100 50/50 you want to play 100 people, not like only 40 people with so many dupes. I’m trying to figure out how what happens if like the iteration becomes

    optimizer lineup is good -> people realize it’s 65% cash rate -> more and more people use it -> now say we get to a state where so many people use it, even if they all cash, they will win less than their entry fee (since there is rake), similar to the example you just gave -> cash rate drops below like 55% (or what ever is needed to beat the rake)

    At some point in that iteration, there should be a breaking point where it’s optimial to deviate from this lineup, it’s just hard to find when.

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