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  • bhdevault

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  • gaelicgirl

    @tmarohl said...

    I don’t think he will either. Pretty hard to give an all star spot to a guy on the worst team in the league, who has missed significant time with injury, and has been load managed to some extent.

    Exactly

  • telestraightshooter

    @Njsum1 said...


    🤷‍♂️


    ..
    .
    yeah all this discussion about cash lines @ 366 fD illustrates there is a clone army out them being generated (of real people) by the optimizers

    So, since all DFS is……. is just math, using a different formula (and stumbling on a better formula) can make a HUGE difference

  • feekdogg

    @tmarohl said...

    I don’t think he will either. Pretty hard to give an all star spot to a guy on the worst team in the league, who has missed significant time with injury, and has been load managed to some extent.

    I thought you were talking about KAT when I first read this.

  • Herf

    So does anyone think Guillermo repeats from his last game for a good value play?

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #45

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, you’re right. Geez. Bryant played 9 minutes in the first half, than like 22 straight minutes in the 2nd half. He never subbed out until the game was over.

    Just seems like he is sticking to this 10-11 man rotation. Like I said maybe that 2nd half forces his hand but just gonna proceed with caution

  • tmarohl

    @feekdogg said...

    I thought you were talking about KAT when I first read this.

    Kat will make it, but there are probably other deserving players.

  • telestraightshooter

    • I am on a 4 day heater
    • dK bankroll has increased 5x
    • I am thinking of starting a new blog titled DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.
  • JSteele

    @Herf said...

    So does anyone think Guillermo repeats from his last game for a good value play?

    No, that was a revenge game

  • JSteele

    @telestraightshooter said...

    I am thinking of starting a new blog titled DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.

    That sounds interesting, what will it be about

  • Pandamonious

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    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @telestraightshooter said...

    • I am on a 4 day heater
    • dK bankroll has increased 5x
    • I am thinking of starting a new blog titled DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.

    Can their be a section called, Teaching Panda how to 5x his bankroll?

  • telestraightshooter

    @theIrrigator said...

    Maybe I’m still traumatized from the last few days lol

    HaHa, with ya bro

  • JSteele

    @telestraightshooter said...

    • I am on a 4 day heater
    • dK bankroll has increased 5x
    • I am thinking of starting a new blog titled DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.

    5x isn’t enough for GPP or cash game anymore. You should be aiming for 7-10x

  • frugal

    @telestraightshooter said...

    So, since all DFS is……. is just math, using a different formula (and stumbling on a better formula) can make a HUGE difference

    While there is absolute merit in building a good model, unless a predictive mathematical model is repeatable with a high degree of accuracy, it’s just chasing one’s tail trying to tinker to absolutely, accurately, and repeatably predict that last bit of human caused variation based on a single night (or even a few weeks worth) of results. And the only way to know if one model is better than another is to compare the predicted output vs actual over time (unless you can run regressive numbers).

  • miggs6876

    @Pandamonious said...

    Not sure about Embiid. I HATE playing Embiid. Other than that, it makes sense.

    Panda what is your Rozier radar saying? Also, can you play him with Graham?

  • frugal

    @JSteele said...

    5x isn’t enough for GPP or cash game anymore. You should be aiming for 7-10x

    5x bankroll…

  • JSteele

    @frugal said...

    5x bankroll…

    I know it’s a joke

  • telestraightshooter

    @Pandamonious said...

    Can their be a section called, Teaching Panda how to 5x his bankroll?

    ok, the 5x is a result of ….. it being $35 on Sunday, & me overextending &getting lucky w/ a new edge I am trying out.

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #45

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    @telestraightshooter said...

    • I am on a 4 day heater
    • dK bankroll has increased 5x
    • I am thinking of starting a new blog titled DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.

    I would just enjoy the heater while it lasts, winter is coming

    Lol

  • FunchessOfFun

    Played for the first time in a couple of weeks last night for a random late slate. Nice little welcome back 6x on entries. Almost won a $9 satty to a $555…so close.

    Insight for the day. Beal always destroys my hornets. I don’t care if he’s 9400, I’m rostering him. I will be pairing him with Bryant and running it back with Rozier.

  • frugal

    @telestraightshooter said...

    DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.

    Not entirely sure what you’re referring to, but ignoring outlier performances is absolute solid advice. The question is, is one’s model smart enough to understand the difference between an outlier performance vs a shift in role/return from injury. Let’s take Bryant tonight. If a model is taking a season long role into account, I can imagine locking him in 100%. If one is taking a say, 10 game window into effect last game would look like an outlier and likely suggest a fade. Which is correct? Well, both to some degree…

  • Njsum1

    @telestraightshooter said...


    ..
    .
    yeah all this discussion about cash lines @ 366 fD illustrates there is a clone army out them being generated (of real people) by the optimizers

    So, since all DFS is……. is just math, using a different formula (and stumbling on a better formula) can make a HUGE difference

    Sure, yet that’s not how I choose to play. If I was a pro sure, I’d want any edge I can get. Yet since I’m an engaged casual player, who plays for the enjoyment of the challenge and making lineups I’m not into that, what did you call it again…math🤢🤢🤮🤮🤮😁

    I play lower stakes 1-5 dollar and never 150 max stuff, and I can still profit overall (not every night and I have dry spells) with intuition, understanding of pricing and a free projection site just to make sure I’m not missing obvious value, and news interpretation.

  • Pandamonious

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    @miggs6876 said...

    Panda what is your Rozier radar saying? Also, can you play him with Graham?

    I think you can play Rozier. I think you can play Rozier and Graham together. Although Rozier correlates better with Washington.

    Graham/Bridges/Washington is the best most correlated CHA stack, if you want to really load up.

    Bryant/Beal also correlate very well if you want to run i back. Beal/Bertans also.

  • RWilder

    @feezyg said...

    Lots of great plays tonight. It feels like a night where you just take your guys and see what happens. What we’re not gonna do is sit here tinkering all day and being on suicide watch for late scratches. Jeff Teague is popping in my early results, i refuse to play him but you can. Ok do the rest yourself you lazy @$$%$. Goodnight and Good Luck…

    I agree with this. I made 5 LUs last night that I will not change, unless the players don’t play. I swapped out two guys I shouldn’t yesterday for after announcement of a player playing and it cost me big time. I won’t be doing that today.

    Just to fix my tinkering addiction I have 2 LUs that I will build off of reading this forum today and tinkering with late scratches or whatever.

  • frugal

    @Pandamonious said...

    I think you can play Rozier. I think you can play Rozier and Graham together. Although Rozier correlates better with Washington.

    Graham/Bridges/Washington is the best most correlated CHA stack, if you want to really load up.

    Bryant/Beal also correlate very well if you want to run i back. Beal/Bertans also.

    So you’re saying Rozier/Graham/Bridges/Washington/Bryant/Beal/Bertans. Got it.

  • gaelicgirl

    @telestraightshooter said...

    I am thinking of starting a new blog titled DFS Optimizers Could…… Care Less about Recent Performance Reflecting Radical changes in Rotations.

    Consider changing that to DFS Optimizers Couldn’t… Care Less unless you want to rile up the grammar Nazis

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