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  • bhdevault

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  • frugal

    @Pandamonious said...

    Pricing is soft on DK, because they priced some high draft picks cheap (Barnes, Green) and guys who are underpriced, because other guys are out (Maxey,) I don’t think it’s soft in general. Look at the highest point-per-dollar plays and tell me on an 11-game slate you’re super confident that they’re going to be necessary. I don’t think you can.

    Assuming some of these guys who are perceived values and can smash their tag, there’s not a ton of evidence of that.

    As osuryanf has mentioned, a lot of guys on this slate are actually priced higher than they usally are. Embiid was under 10K all last season practically. Morant and Fox over 9K right out the gate. LaVine 8.7K with Ball and DDR there now? That’s not soft.

    The studs are rarely underpriced, my feel is there is enough solid value to fit in 3 which is rarely the case on DK. I agree regarding Morant, Fox, and LaVine but Maxey’s price should be calculated on his expected roll. I see 13 projected starters at < $4K. Now I don’t think the all absolutely go off, but I don’t think it’s far fetched that a handful go 10X.

  • superjon

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Also, please practice bankroll management. It’s so easy to want to try and play more than you should b/c its the first legit slate of the year, but the NBA is a marathon, not a sprint. There will be a full slate of basketball until mid-May essentially, so keep that in mind.

    I think my biggest mistake last year when playing MME was that I would mostly play about 80 or so of the 0.5 and 0.25 GPPs and then 20+ of the $3 and $4 ones.

    If the higher priced ones busted, it was really hard to make it up with the smaller ones.

  • frugal

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Dinwiddie is 6500

    Dinwiddie is $4.9 on DK. Huge pricing differences between sites I see…

  • Ace15

    On FD Only. Lamelo Lock. Kelly O Lock. KPJ…STONE COLD LOCK.

  • dominicanpapi

    Isaiah Stewart, $5200 on FD….that’s another price discrepancy.

    Really like White and Murray from the Spurs.

    Maxey only $4600, Harris at $7200.

    Haliburton at 6300 in a good spot vs. Portland and a nice little late night hammer.

    It’s definitely surprising that there are only 2 games with a game total of at least 230.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @Pandamonious said...

    Good luck separating from the field jamming in Barnes, Jalen Green, Maxey and so on in every lineup then picking your studs. Some of these guys are going to fall flat on their face and suck and it’s what everyone will be doing. A lot of these 9K plus studs aren’t crossing 45 points either.

    I can see about two guys but alot of the 9k+ is not going to make about their average of around 45?

  • frugal

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    I can see about two guys but alot of the 9k+ is not going to make about their average of around 45?

    Some will fail for sure. On any given night foul trouble, injury, blow out, or just a straight up cold night can happen.

    However, on the filp side I think it’s going to be hard for some of these less than $4K DK players that are starting (assuming they see 25+ minutes) to completely flop. Also with so much low end value on DK one can easily build a lineup with 3 studs, 4 value plays, and 1 mid tier player or 4 upper mid, 1 stud, and 3 value plays. I think it’s going to be pretty easy to differentiate on an 11 game slate.

  • superjon

    I’ll have some Embiid, but I think I’d rather take the 1k savings and play Dame instead.

  • 866

    Agree with a lot that’s need said.. no-brainer plays being Maxey, Barnes, Green.. but pricing isn’t soft on DK.. so many guys much higher than last year.. you have Fox 9300, Morant 9100, Sab is 9800, LaVine 8700.. Mitchell is 9600! just a lot of guys seem overpriced for week 1/game 1.. then there are some that are underpriced – Dinwiddie, Jackson Jr.. Anunoby 6100 I actually will be playing because he will be doing a lot for TOR. Even Rose is 6900, last year he never cracked 6000. Like Adams at a paltry 4700 as well. Love McC at 7200 vs SAC. Lill 10,100 a little high to me. I have some though.

  • Ace15

    I’m thinking Dame as a late night hammer is also the way to go. He’s destroyed SAC.

  • frugal

    @866 said...

    Agree with a lot that’s need said.. no-brainer plays being Maxey, Barnes, Green.. but pricing isn’t soft on DK.. so many guys much higher than last year.. you have Fox 9300, Morant 9100, Sab is 9800, LaVine 8700.. Mitchell is 9600! just a lot of guys seem overpriced for week 1/game 1.. then there are some that are underpriced – Dinwiddie, Jackson Jr.. Anunoby 6100 I actually will be playing because he will be doing a lot for TOR. Even Rose is 6900, last year he never cracked 6000. Like Adams at a paltry 4700 as well. Love McC at 7200 vs SAC. Lill 10,100 a little high to me. I have some though.

    How are you judging those studs are over priced? On the whole prices look relative to their last game last season. I get that we’ll perhaps see some rust for some players and there have been team/role changes, but still. Here’s the differences:

    Fox: -$700
    Morant: +$500
    Sabonis: -$300
    LaVine: -$600
    Mitchell: +$300

    And some other “studs” just for reference.

    Embiid: -$300
    Jokic: -$200
    Lillard: -$200 (though his final game price was a 10 game high)
    Beal: +$200
    Tatum: -$600
    Randle: -$200
    Vuc: -$1200 (though understandable)

  • mrjredoak

    Not sure if this is allowed on this forum or not ….. but any glaring player prop bets out there to exploit on the first full day?

    Lamelo Over 6.5 assists and JJJ over 17.5 points are a few I like

  • mbunner23

    @mrjredoak said...

    Not sure if this is allowed on this forum or not ….. but any glaring player prop bets out there to exploit on the first full day?

    Lamelo Over 6.5 assists and JJJ over 17.5 points are a few I like

    Sabonis O20.5 pts, FVV O19.5

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @mrjredoak said...

    Not sure if this is allowed on this forum or not ….. but any glaring player prop bets out there to exploit on the first full day?

    Lamelo Over 6.5 assists and JJJ over 17.5 points are a few I like

    I have none, but for future reference people are certainly allowed to discuss sports betting within the thread. As long as it’s related to todays slate, it’s fine.

  • emnj69

    I love kemba tonight

  • emnj69

    kings not playinig bagley and not trading him is such a kings thing -one of the worst franchises there is

  • 866

    When was Fox ever 10,000 on DK? I remember mid 8s? Same with Donovan.. he was always 8000, 8100. Against OKC can’t see him going crazy in a likely blowout. I do have a lot of Fox though tonight.

  • frugal

    @866 said...

    When was Fox ever 10,000 on DK? I remember mid 8s? Same with Donovan.. he was always 8000, 8100. Against OKC can’t see him going crazy in a likely blowout. I do have a lot of Fox though tonight.

    Fox was $10K final game of last season. Last 10 games he kept rising and rising, avg salary last 10 games $9.5K. Mitchell saw a rise in the playoffs but average of his last 10 was $8.5K though his last 3 being 9,9,and 9.3.

    I’m still looking at things though it seems a bit pointless being the 1st games for all these teams. I feel the same about Mitchell, looks like a blowout to me. But honestly, I can see POR blowing out SAC as well.

  • dominicanpapi

    @frugal said...

    Dinwiddie is $4.9 on DK. Huge pricing differences between sites I see…

    Yup, that’s a really good price for Dinwiddie on DK. I’m a Wiz fan, I think Dinwiddie is a 7K to $7500 type of player all year and I think there’s still some meat left on the bone at his FD price.

  • DirkDigglerz

    I Got some sleeper picks :)

  • 10CentShowdownChamp

    @osuryanf said...

    They sure made pricing pretty high to begin the first full slate tonight. Don’t get me wrong, I like it! But it isn’t going to be super easy to find value.

    lol there’s value all over the place

  • got9forya

    Jaylen Brown Now Starting

  • osuryanf

    @10CentShowdownChamp said...

    lol there’s value all over the place

    After more research I have found lots of value that I like.

    But even still, several guys up top are wayyyyy over priced for an opening night. You’re welcome to compare previous opening night salaries or even average salary of each player and then compare or to current price of player.

  • monarch

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Yup, that’s a really good price for Dinwiddie on DK. I’m a Wiz fan, I think Dinwiddie is a 7K to $7500 type of player all year and I think there’s still some meat left on the bone at his FD price.

    Minutes expectation off ACL, first game and a 3/62 million deal? 28-30?

  • 866

    I see heavy chalk Maxey, Dinwiddie, Barnes and Achiuwa. Crazy. Should just put those 4 on everything.. but I didn’t. Love Harrell at 3700 also. That WSH/TOR game is Gold.

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