NBA FORUM

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Dallas ( 2.5 ) at Atlanta ( -2.5 ) —- T: 225
    8:00 PM EST : Milwaukee ( -2.5 ) at Miami ( 2.5 ) —- T: 224
    10:00 PM EST : LA Clippers ( 4 ) at Golden State ( -4 ) —- T: 226

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • tmarohl

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    *Disclaimer – Tmar always thinks the Bucks are gonna lose

    That is True.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @tmarohl said...

    Because i don’t think they have the depth tonight to compete with Miami on opening night, and I see the Bucks pulling the plug early. If Bud doesn’t think they will win by about midway through the second quarter, he will pull the plug. Giannis is still bothered by sore knee. He is not going to run guys like Giannis and Khris in the ground. He won’t do that to George Hill or Pat C either.

    It’s tough with you and the Bucks.

    You are right more than not about this stuff, but definitely not always right. You also think less of the team than what they are. As evidenced by your assumption they wouldn’t be able to beat Brooklyn opening night.

    A fully healthy Bucks team is quite superior to this Miami team. Now, take away Jrue and Lopez and yes, the tables tilt towards a Miami win, but it’s certainly not going to be a wash out, unless Milwaukee wants it to be. Second game of the season or not, I don’t see why you just give up a game.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    *Disclaimer – Tmar always thinks the Bucks are gonna lose

    The condensed version of my post. Yes.

  • mbunner23

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    *Disclaimer – Tmar always thinks the Bucks are gonna lose

    That is 100 percent true.

  • tmarohl

    @Pandamonious said...

    It’s tough with you and the Bucks.

    You are right more than not about this stuff, but definitely not always right. You also think less of the team than what they are. As evidenced by your assumption they wouldn’t be able to beat Brooklyn opening night.

    A fully healthy Bucks team is quite superior to this Miami team. Now, take away Jrue and Lopez and yes, the tables tilt towards a Miami win, but it’s certainly not going to be a wash out, unless Milwaukee wants it to be. Second game of the season or not, I don’t see why you just give up a game.

    It’s not just Jrue and Lopez. It’s also the bench. No Portis either. Bud will play his guys as long as the game is competitive. If it gets out of reach, he will pull them early. I have seen multiple games like this over the last couple years, and Bud always does something weird. Might play guys like Giannis and Khris normal minutes in the first half, and they might not see the floor in the second half. You just never know. I just think there is a lot more risk with Bucks starters than there is reward tonight.

  • frugal

    @tmarohl said...

    I see this as a punt game for the Bucks. Won’t probably play any Khris or Giannis now. This will be Nwora, Justin Robinson, Sandro special with some sides of Thanassis, Pat C, etc.

    I can’t see them shutting down Giannis and Middleton in the 2nd. Unless they are down by 20+ at the half, which I feel is unlikely, I’d bet MIL runs normal rotations though 3 full quarters a t a min. I took a look at last season to see if I could find a similar scenario and on 3/2/21 Bucks lost 128-97 to DEN (they were down 14 at the half) Jrue played 18 minutes off the bench coming off injury (Brolo, Donte, and Portis played). Giannis played 33 minutes and finished with 27/8/8 and Middleton 29 with 20/4/6. MIL is coming into the 2nd game of the season looking to rest? I don’t see it.

  • gaelicgirl

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    *Disclaimer – Tmar always thinks the Bucks are gonna lose

    He does! I think it’s some kind of “reverse jinx” going on there.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mbunner23 said...

    Bucks ML with no Jrue/Lopez? First home game in Miami, I went Miami ML when they were dogs. Like the over on DAL/ATL though.

    That’s part of why I’m tracking everything.
    When I make a lock pick, I try to find the best 100 moneyline.
    I definitely loved the over on NYK/Bos last night, but Washington giving me 2:1 odds made it my lock. I guess if I was using my head, my lock should have been the Over on NY/Bos.

    I don’t often use my head. :)

    Anyway, with all that said, if you like the Atl/Dal over, then do it. It was definitely close to being my lock tonight and if Mil/Mia wasn’t today, it would have been.

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    I can’t see them shutting down Giannis and Middleton in the 2nd. Unless they are down by 20+ at the half, which I feel is unlikely, I’d bet MIL runs normal rotations though 3 full quarters a t a min. I took a look at last season to see if I could find a similar scenario and on 3/2/21 Bucks lost 128-97 to DEN (they were down 14 at the half) Jrue played 18 minutes off the bench coming off injury (Brolo, Donte, and Portis played). Giannis played 33 minutes and finished with 27/8/8 and Middleton 29 with 20/4/6. MIL is coming into the 2nd game of the season looking to rest? I don’t see it.

    I don’t think Jimmy, Bam, Hero, Robinson, Lowry are going to have much trouble playing 5 on 2. I don’t like many of the Miami starters now either. Will probably play some Hero.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Also, if you are going to take the Milwaukee moneyline, wait it out.
    I expect that moneyline to pay better the closer it gets to game time.
    I think you’ll see late blooming money flowing to Miami as people realize Milwaukee is missing 2/5 of their starters.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    T,

    Is this what you would consider the Bucks blowout 4th quarter group…

    Robinson, Kalatizakis, Nwora, Thanasis, Mamu ??

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Is 99% Nwora too low?

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    I can’t see them shutting down Giannis and Middleton in the 2nd. Unless they are down by 20+ at the half, which I feel is unlikely, I’d bet MIL runs normal rotations though 3 full quarters a t a min. I took a look at last season to see if I could find a similar scenario and on 3/2/21 Bucks lost 128-97 to DEN (they were down 14 at the half) Jrue played 18 minutes off the bench coming off injury (Brolo, Donte, and Portis played). Giannis played 33 minutes and finished with 27/8/8 and Middleton 29 with 20/4/6. MIL is coming into the 2nd game of the season looking to rest? I don’t see it.

    They can’t run normal rotations, because 3/5ths of the normal rotation are not playing. Bucks are basically playing with 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13,14 and 15.

  • siddom

    Porzingod or zublocka for the savings?

  • tmarohl

    @Pandamonious said...

    T,

    Is this what you would consider the Bucks blowout 4th quarter group…

    Robinson, Kalatizakis, Nwora, Thanasis, Mamu ??

    Maybe. I think Mamu and Robinson will be in the first quarter rotation. Nwora will play as many minutes as he can handle or until he fouls out.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 264

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Yukerboy said...

    Is 99% Nwora too low?

    Minimum of 4 bucks in every lineup too low?

  • dominicanpapi

    I’d be shocked if Milwaukee scores more than 100 points tonight.

  • zeeshan2

    @siddom said...

    Porzingod or zublocka for the savings?

    I personally like Porz’s matchup tonight and Zubac is a little too volitale with me with his minutes. LAC might go small and give Morris the minutes or even Hartenstein.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tmarohl said...

    They can’t run normal rotations, because 3/5ths of the normal rotation are not playing. Bucks are basically playing with 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13,14 and 15.

    You edited it, but I think you had it better the first time. 5 should be 9.

    3 – Jrue
    4 – Lopez
    5 – Divs
    6 – Portis

    Then 7 – Allen
    8 – Nwora

    9 and 10, I could make an argument for both Hood and Ojeyle and Sandro.

    1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15

    They are missing 6/10 of what I expect to be their normal rotation.

  • tmarohl

    @Yukerboy said...

    You edited it, but I think you had it better the first time. 5 should be 9.

    3 – Jrue
    4 – Lopez
    5 – Divs
    6 – Portis

    Then 7 – Allen
    8 – Nwora

    9 and 10, I could make an argument for both Hood and Ojeyle and Sandro.

    1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15

    They are missing 6/10 of what I expect to be their normal rotation.

    Which is why I think the Bucks punt this game. I edited it because I consider Allen to now be the fifth starter ahead of Donte (even if he was healthy) They showed that by agreeing to a two year extension with him the other day.

  • Supersharpie

    One thing I have learned over my years competing in DFS is that predicting blowouts in the NBA is a fool’s errand.

  • blackdirkdiggler

    @Yukerboy said...

    Last night, I won my +200 moneyline lock on Washington. I’m going to list records by lock, like, and gun to head, along with balance.
    When I’m talking units, I’m talking 5% of the bankroll. So whatever, you have, divide it by 20 and that would be a unit.

    Locks – 1-1
    Like – 3-4
    Gun to my head – 2-2
    Units (started with 20) – 22.36

    Dal@Atl – I’ve got Atlanta favored by 1.5 with an O/U of 237.5. While Vegas also has Atlanta by 2, their O/U is too low at 224.5. If it wasn’t for the next game, the over would be a lock.

    Mil@Mia – I’ve got Milwaukee by 6 and an O/U of 229.5. 223.5 O/U is a little low, but with Vegas having Miami by 2.5, I’m all over that Milwaukee moneyline at +115 for my lock.

    LAC@GSW – I’ve got GS by .5 a point and an O/U of 230. They have GS by 3.5 and an O/U of 228. Gun to my head here, I’m taking the LAC moneyline at +140.

    Good luck everyone!

    Good info Yukerboy. Love seeing your breakdowns. Keep up the good work!!

  • frugal

    @tmarohl said...

    I don’t think Jimmy, Bam, Hero, Robinson, Lowry are going to have much trouble playing 5 on 2. I don’t like many of the Miami starters now either. Will probably play some Hero.

    I had no interest in MIA starters, but I have plenty of interest in Giannis and MIL value. They’re certainly not stars, but Pat C, Allen, Nwora, and Hill are all legit players. I don’t see MIL winning but I’m not sure I see a huge blowout.

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    I had no interest in MIA starters, but I have plenty of interest in Giannis and MIL value. They’re certainly not stars, but Pat C, Allen, Nwora, and Hill are all legit players. I don’t see MIL winning but I’m not sure I see a huge blowout.

    If Giannis plays a half he could put up some ok numbers on a three game slate, but I will not be going there much if at all. Rather take Bucks value and play Warriors, Mavs, Clippers and ATL

  • Dmo_Htx

    Lee and Reddish might be a good counter to the Bucks chalk. I’d hope Kidd trusts Brunson also. He’s legit

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