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  • bhdevault

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  • w3stcoastoff3ns3

    Based on reading this article, I may go against the grain by playing a balanced line up with no punts or expensive players.

  • Rosterbate

    Who are you guys liking between Jordan and Aldridge at C? I like Jordan’s matchup, and I think Aldridge has a great matchup too on offense. I worry that Aldridge has both the potential to get in foul trouble if guarding Cousins and a higher possibility of resting in a blowout. I do think they have the potential to put up a similar amount of points with Aldridge coming at a slight discount and I think his ownership will be a bit less. Who would you guys lean toward on DK?

  • tmarohl

    @TeHDruiD said...

    One last point I’d like to make for new people to NBA DFS (heck and some of you vets). The key to being contrarian is to fade the value chalk (cheap guys who everyone and their brother is going to have – Jonathan Simmons as an example for tonight)

    The expensive chalk players are chalk for a reason, they’re likely going to kill. However, your edge comes in fading the cheap guys who everyone is touting. I’m not saying it’s foolproof, nothing is, but you can get low ownership % on some of these guys surrounding the chalk who are in good spots

    EXAMPLE

    Lets say your debate tonight is between Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Simmons/all of the guys in that range. You can do that and I wouldn’t say it’s a bad thing, but understand that you could get Matt Barnes at a very low ownership %, who is going to play a lot and who has had plenty of success against the Spurs. I’d argue that Barnes is the much better play than Simmons, but no one will be on him because Simmons is coming off of a big game that was televised and everyone got to see it

    Long story short: Don’t get cute with your studs, lock ‘em in. If you’re playing GPP’s and you know Jonathan Simmons is going to be 30%+ owned, THAT is the place to get contrarian as opposed to fading Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler for a guy like Rudy Gay for example. Often times your salary will get to a point where you have to choose between some key guys, don’t neglect them to be different, neglect the value guys to be different

    One of my slam lineups I had 300 bucks left and chose Simmons over Barnes originally. I was going back and forth between them. Your logic on fading the scrub chalk talked me back into Barnes.

  • TheWhiteMamba

    @TeHDruiD said...

    I don’t hate Evan Turner tonight at all. I don’t see him as a PG, more of a SG/SF with McCollum running the point when Lillard rests. Turner should see around 25 minutes again in a game that should have plenty of scoring

    My only problem with Turner is he’s an awful shooter. He can give you all of the peripherals, but for him to hit value he needs to score and it’s hard as hell to know which games he’s on and which ones he’s not

    I’ll have some exposure for sure, but I won’t get too crazy with him

    So is McCollum always on the floor whenever Lillard isnt? I haven’t watched Portland play much.

  • byo34

    Anderson and Manu my favorites on SA. Liking Butler over Kawhi too.. maybe I am crazy.

  • russellisthename

    @TeHDruiD said...

    One last point I’d like to make for new people to NBA DFS (heck and some of you vets). The key to being contrarian is to fade the value chalk (cheap guys who everyone and their brother is going to have – Jonathan Simmons as an example for tonight)

    The expensive chalk players are chalk for a reason, they’re likely going to kill. However, your edge comes in fading the cheap guys who everyone is touting. I’m not saying it’s foolproof, nothing is, but you can get low ownership % on some of these guys surrounding the chalk who are in good spots

    EXAMPLE

    Lets say your debate tonight is between Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Simmons/all of the guys in that range. You can do that and I wouldn’t say it’s a bad thing, but understand that you could get Matt Barnes at a very low ownership %, who is going to play a lot and who has had plenty of success against the Spurs. I’d argue that Barnes is the much better play than Simmons, but no one will be on him because Simmons is coming off of a big game that was televised and everyone got to see it

    Long story short: Don’t get cute with your studs, lock ‘em in. If you’re playing GPP’s and you know Jonathan Simmons is going to be 30%+ owned, THAT is the place to get contrarian as opposed to fading Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler for a guy like Rudy Gay for example. Often times your salary will get to a point where you have to choose between some key guys, don’t neglect them to be different, neglect the value guys to be different

    On the flipside, you can be a little too contrarian when the chalky value play is almost guaranteed to hit. Take Lawson for example. Recency bias against him having off the court issues led people to be a little off him last night when it’s been known for over a week that Joeger was going to run him 35-40 minutes for these first 8 games. At his price point, it’d be almost impossible for him to not exceed value in any spot.

    Same spot on Simmons. Danny Green injury opens up pockets of minutes and someone has to gobble them up. Putting faith into another repeat performance by Ginobili with bigger Sacramento bench wings that clog the lane will hurt his upside. Simmons showed range grabbing boards away from a bigger Draymond Green to suggest that the size of Temple/Caspi/Barnes won’t be as much of a problem as it could potentially be for Ginobili. Devon Booker saw this same front and his slashing to the bucket game was hindered at the rim.

  • RyanM1512

    @byo34 said...

    Anderson and Manu my favorites on SA. Liking Butler over Kawhi too.. maybe I am crazy.

    crazy for sure!

  • hobbes2d

    @TheWhiteMamba said...

    So is McCollum always on the floor whenever Lillard isnt? I haven’t watched Portland play much.

    They stagger things so that McCollum or Dame are pretty much always on the floor.

  • TeHDruiD

    @TheWhiteMamba said...

    So is McCollum always on the floor whenever Lillard isnt? I haven’t watched Portland play much.

    Basically there are about 12 or so minutes a game where neither is on the floor, the rest of the time they’re on the floor in some kind of combination. I don’t watch them much either, so I can’t answer your question, but I do know that Lillard and McCollum are young work horses who don’t get much of a break during any game. It’s the pieces around them that are the question marks because we never really know how many minutes they’re going to get in any given game

  • hobbes2d

    Druid dropping some great advice in this thread.

  • hobbes2d

    I’m kind of torn on this slate because some guys I might want to play I’m a little leery of using when they might get lesser minutes due to blowout or coaching rotations. IE LA and Horford…

  • frugal

    I’d actually like to roster Simmons tonight, but I’m generally paying up for forwards so it’s tough to fit him in. I doubt he’ll be very high owned honestly.

  • TeHDruiD

    @russellisthename said...

    On the flipside, you can be a little too contrarian when the chalky value play is almost guaranteed to hit. Take Lawson for example. Recency bias against him having off the court issues led people to be a little off him last night when it’s been known for over a week that Joeger was going to run him 35-40 minutes for these first 8 games. At his price point, it’d be almost impossible for him to not exceed value in any spot.

    Same spot on Simmons. Danny Green injury opens up pockets of minutes and someone has to gobble them up. Putting faith into another repeat performance by Ginobili with bigger Sacramento bench wings that clog the lane will hurt his upside. Simmons showed range grabbing boards away from a bigger Draymond Green to suggest that the size of Temple/Caspi/Barnes won’t be as much of a problem as it could potentially be for Ginobili. Devon Booker saw this same front and his slashing to the bucket game was hindered at the rim.

    Absolutely correct. This is what makes NBA DFS so tough. Sometimes the plays are staring us right in the face and our brains find a way to take us away from them

    My statement was more of an in general type where I used Simmons as an example to kind of paint the picture. But that’s really the beauty of it, building the perfect lineup is crazy hard and when you have stats and other things pulling your mind in 50 directions, it’s easy to overlook the simple plays because we get set in our decisions

    I really wouldn’t fault anyone for using Simmons, heck I’ll have some exposure to him as well, but in general, the easiest way to be contrarian is to put a good fade on value guys IF there is another option close in cost that no one will be on

  • TeHDruiD

    @Rosterbate said...

    Who are you guys liking between Jordan and Aldridge at C? I like Jordan’s matchup, and I think Aldridge has a great matchup too on offense. I worry that Aldridge has both the potential to get in foul trouble if guarding Cousins and a higher possibility of resting in a blowout. I do think they have the potential to put up a similar amount of points with Aldridge coming at a slight discount and I think his ownership will be a bit less. Who would you guys lean toward on DK?

    Dwight Howard is my favorite C tonight, just being honest. In terms of your 2 guys, I’d go Jordan over Aldridge 9 times out of 10 tonight

    This is a history bias though as Aldridge just hasn’t done good against Cousins in the past. It doesn’t mean he won’t go off, I just feel much better with the other options you’d have available to you at C

  • SCARMENTO

    anyone thinking satoransky gets any run?

  • deactivated70770

    • 492

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    @hobbes2d said...

    Druid dropping some great advice in this thread.

    Except when it doesn’t workout that way. Every day is a new day. Punt Chalk plays work out sometimes and sometimes they don’t. Luck factor kicks in with this low end guys.

  • Petergunz82

    @slpanthers24 said...

    Putting much fading LMA tonight. Very uneasy about that.

    This

  • jon2anderson

    • Blogger of the Month

    There’s like nothing content-wise for NBA in the incentives, at least for DK… what’s going on here RG?

  • mbergsmann19

    @WilliamPU2003 said...

    aldrige beal or bradley griffin?

    Aldridge/Beal for sure

  • Petergunz82

    @frugal said...

    I’d actually like to roster Simmons tonight, but I’m generally paying up for forwards so it’s tough to fit him in. I doubt he’ll be very high owned honestly.

    21.7%

  • Rosterbate

    @TeHDruiD said...

    Dwight Howard is my favorite C tonight, just being honest. In terms of your 2 guys, I’d go Jordan over Aldridge 9 times out of 10 tonight

    This is a history bias though as Aldridge just hasn’t done good against Cousins in the past. It doesn’t mean he won’t go off, I just feel much better with the other options you’d have available to you at C

    Thanks for the reply, Howard has been playing excellent through the preseason, I definitely have a bit of him tonight too. I like Plumlee as well but the Por rotation beyond CJ and Dame is just too much of a guessing game for me.

  • tooltime

    Some good talk about Barnes on here. I can’t decide Barnes or Crabbe. Any thought?

  • Yombo

    entire thread yesterday was about whether or Lawson was a good play, i didn’t play him but he was pretty good

    no conversation on Lawson today (for the most part), but he has the same price and minutes. are people going there?

  • TeHDruiD

    @slpanthers24 has been around this long enough to understand there is never anything for certain once the ball gets tipped. Variance happens every night, great plays stink, all the chalk value hits etc

    That’s kinda why I brought up the fade value chalk point because it’s easier to be different with your value than it is with the star players because these guys are cheap for a reason (usually they’re not very good/don’t get a lot of minutes). In the case of Simmons, everything just adds up too perfectly. Either he’s going to hit as the chalk or he’s going to hurt a large majority of lineups tonight. It’s a fine line, that’s for sure, so I respect slpanthers saying what he just said, nothing is every cut and dry in this industry and there are a billion different ways to go about building lineups

    I personally can never fully fade the value chalk, but I also run 10-30 lineups per night. If you’re running 1, you have to take a stand. Either you’re rostering Simmons and hoping he has another big game, or you’re fading him and hoping he hurts a lot of people. AH this DFS thing is fickle lol

  • RyanM1512

    aad

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