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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 8 ) at Miami ( -8 ) —- T: 224
    9:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 6 ) at Denver ( -6 ) —- T: 216
    10:30 PM EST : Memphis ( 12 ) at LA Lakers ( -12 ) —- T: 219.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • SteeloCity

    Gonna be another weird slate. Hmmm. Might jam Doncic, Porzy, and Davis into my LU and figure out the rest.

  • DirkDigglerz

    Stacked the 1st Game call it a day

  • S7ubs

    Another 3 game slate today, 11 gamer tomorrow and 3 game on Thursday. Can we just get like 8 games lol

  • monarch

    I like the Dallas-Denver game…especially the Nuggets guards

  • S7ubs

    Might fade AD and Lebron. Blowout concerns for me.

  • kwest

    @monarch said...

    I like the Dallas-Denver game…especially the Nuggets guards

    Hope the Mavs are already in Denver. Its dumping snow today

  • monarch

    Just getting started but Torrey Craig figures to be on the floor a bit for 3k.

  • mbunner23

    @S7ubs said...

    Another 3 game slate today, 11 gamer tomorrow and 3 game on Thursday. Can we just get like 8 games lol

    Agree, wish every slate was between 6-8 games.

    Donic, Porz, Joker, Nunn, Val, Murray, Morant?,

  • S7ubs

    @mbunner23 said...

    Agree, wish every slate was between 6-8 games.

    Donic, Porz, Joker, Nunn, Val, Murray, Morant?,

    I think you will have to have to have exposure to all of them. I personally like Dallas tonight.

  • monarch

    Being that there are just three games and we have all day to wait for them we should probably break down each team in terms of rotation, injuries etc through three games.

  • SteeloCity

    @monarch said...

    Being that there are just three games and we have all day to wait for them we should probably break down each team in terms of rotation, injuries etc through three games.

    This is a great idea. I’ll try to find some time to contribute as well.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @S7ubs said...

    Another 3 game slate today, 11 gamer tomorrow and 3 game on Thursday. Can we just get like 8 games lol

    Yeah, it’s wearing thin. Friday the schedule starts normalizing with an 8 game slate then slate sizes of, 7, 5, 6, 6, and so on. 5-8 games is definitely best.

  • noddy

    These 3 game slates are awful. Much rather have 11 games.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    Being that there are just three games and we have all day to wait for them we should probably break down each team in terms of rotation, injuries etc through three games.

    Are you starting?

  • Jeddy3

    Jimmy Butler dual narrative: new team and new baby

  • monarch

    @Pandamonious said...

    Are you starting?

    Okay. I’ll take the Miami Heat. Give me about 30 minutes. Feel free to take one of the other five teams.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    Okay. I’ll take the Miami Heat. Give me about 30 minutes. Feel free to take one of the other five teams.

    OK. I’m going to break down some early stats from each game, starting with Atlanta and Miami. Maybe between the two of us we’ll flush this whole thing out.

  • mbunner23

    @noddy said...

    These 3 game slates are awful. Much rather have 11 games.

    What was the winning score of your steps contest last night?

  • kwest

    @Jeddy3 said...

    Jimmy Butler dual narrative: new team and new baby

    Every new father I know is extremely exhausted but pro athletes are different I guess

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    Atlanta ( 107.75 ) @ Miami ( 115.75 )

    - You may be surprised to know Miami is 2nd! ( SECOND! ) in pace so far in NBA this year. – You may even be more surprised that Atlanta is 29th! ( TWENTY NINTH! ) in pace so far this year.

    -Miami and Atlanta are both in the top 10 in rebounding so far, so neither has a decided advantage going in. Until you break it down further and see Atlanta is 24th in defensive rebounding rate, leaving open the possibility for some offensive rebounds and put backs for Bam.

    - Atlanta is 4th in offensive efficiency, while Miami is 1tth in defensive efficiency, giving a slight edge to Atlanta offensively. – Miami is 13th in offensive efficiency, while Atlanta is 9th in defensive efficiency, giving a slight edge to Atlanta.

    - Miami is allowing the most 3 point shots attempted per game, but are 3rd in 3P% allowed, while Atlanta is only 19th in 3P% and 23rd in attempts per game.

    - Atlanta is allowing the 23rd most 3 point shots attempted per game, but are 2nd in 3P% allowed, while Miami is shooting the 17th most 3’s per game at the 5th highest percentage.

    - Atlanta is 4th best in assists allowed per possession and Miami is 9th.

    - Atlanta and Miami are 22nd and 23rd worst respectively in steals allowed per possession, possibly giving a slight boost to ball thieves.

    - Miami is top 5 in blocks allowed per possession, while Atlanta is dead last allowing a blocked shot in 9.1% of possessions. Boost to Bam.

    - With Miami playing at quick pace it’s worth noting that Atlanta so far is 2nd best in defensive fast break efficiency.

    - Atlanta is 4th and Miami is 8th in points in the paint per game, but Miami is 18th in PITP allowed and Atlanta is 7th best in PITP allowed.

    - DVP allowed by position for Atlanta (ranking so the higher the number the better they are at the position)

    PG: 16th allowed
    SG: 29th allowed
    SF: 13th allowed
    PF: 28th allowed
    C: 7th allowed

    Now Miami

    PG: 14th
    SG: 28th
    SF: 7th
    PF:13th
    C: 25th

  • gausman7

    My initial build is a Heat stack with Collins, Lebron or Doncic, and some cheaper pieces from Memphis and Denver.

    This is a really tough slate because all it takes it a blowout to destroy lineups. If you think blowout, it’s a great opportunity to use bench players that will get a minutes uptick.

    I have found predicting blowouts in the NBA is futile for me.

  • JSteele

    @kwest said...

    Every new father I know is extremely exhausted but pro athletes are different I guess

    FVV had a day when he became a dad

  • newzreview

    @mbunner23 said...

    Agree, wish every slate was between 6-8 games.

    Donic, Porz, Joker, Nunn, Val, Murray, Morant?,

    With Butler back, how do you see that affecting Nunn’s minutes and value?

  • monarch

    MIAMI HEAT 2-1 vs Atlanta Hawks 2-1 7:30 O/U 228 Heat -8

    Last game: 116-109 loss at Minnesota

    Injury News: Jimmy Butler (personal) back with the team. Derrick Jones Jr (OUT), Udonis Haslem (OUT), Dion Waiters (OUT), James Johnson (OUT), Kelly Olynk (probable).

    Projected starting lineup: Justise Winslow, Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

    Expected rotation tonight: Eight players with Duncan Robinson and Chris Silva possibly getting minimal run

    Bench players worth noting: Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynk

    Outlook vs the Hawks: The Hawks are on a B2B with travel after a tough 105-103 defeat vs the 76ers. These two teams played in the preseason with pretty much everyone available, resulting in a 120-87 win for the Heat. Tyler Herro started in place of Nunn (projected starter) and Meyers Leonard had a surprising 15 point, 7 rebound, 3 assist performance in 28 minutes. Butler had one of his games where he mailed it in with 7 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in 26 minutes, registering a 16.3 usage rate.

    Preseason meeting:
    https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401163165

    Minutes outlook: The Heat were shorthanded in Minnesota with Winslow (43) and Nunn (40) getting all the minutes they could handle. Adebayo would appear to be unaffected by the return of Butler and registered his best DK performance alongside Butler vs Atlanta in the preseason with 40 DK points in 26 minutes. My expectation is that Dragic continues to lead the second unit off the bench. Dragic is entering around the five minute mark of the 1Q and remaining in the game for approximately ten minutes then closing out both halves in their two most recent games but will lose usage in the time he plays alongside Butler.

    Minutes projection (Olynk is probable): Winslow 36, Butler 34, Nunn 30, Adebayo 32, Leonard 22 Olynk 22, Herro 28, Dragic 25, Duncan Robinson 12, Chris Silva 7

    My targets: Adebayo (7k) doesn’t project to be affected negatively by the presence of Butler and remains at a price point where 6x is not out of the question vs a traveling team on a B2B that was just pasted by Joel Embiid. Although the Hawks are not as soft in the interior as many think, its just a good spot for Adebayo. Butler (7.7k) is someone you want exposure to if making multiple lineups just due to the fact that one never knows when he decides he wants to make a statement. Tonight could be a passive Buckets night where he distributes and spends time focusing on Trae Young or he could erupt and be someone you need on the slate. In his final preseason game at Orlando, Butler sported a 30.4 usage rate and a 40 DK performance in 28 minutes vs a strong Orlando Magic defense. Leonard (3.3k) is cheap and could see additional minutes in the event that Olynk is limited and he already had a big game vs the Hawks team, posting 27.75 DK vs them in game three of the preseason which would be near 9x value tonight.

    My fades: Dragic (5.7k), not sure if he is needed to save the day here and his usage is in question depending on who he shares the floor with. Nunn (6k), I’m probably wrong here because he gets there every single time but he continues to be priced up and is now in direct competition with Winslow, Butler, Dragic and Herro for usage so I’m gonna probably have zero Nunn which means he will crush in garbage time.

    Beat writer: Ira Winderman https://twitter.com/IraHeatBeat

    Popcorn machine vs the Wolves: http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20191027&game=MIAMIN

    Prediction: Heat 112 Hawks 99

    The Hawks are playing a bit slower ranking 24th so far in pace which might be offset by the Heat playing at the leagues second fastest pace. The Hawks go as Trae Young goes and if he is on then the game is on. If he’s off ( which he hasn’t been) then the game is at risk of failing. The Heat surrendered one Trae game early last season but practically shut him out in the other three. With Butler, Winslow and Nunn the Heat have no shortage of defensive options for Trae. I also expect the Heat to play slower now with Butler pounding the ball into the floor and the Heat to control it most of the way.

  • JSteele

    Also I’m not sure how to quantify it for DFS but LeBron had to evacuate his home for the fires. He drove around all night looking for a place to stay which he found at 4am. This was a couple of days ago but I don’t think he has returned to his home.

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