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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 7 ) at Indiana ( -7 ) —- T: 198
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    7:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( -1.5 ) at Boston ( 1.5 ) —- T: 205.5
    8:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 13.5 ) at Okla City ( -13.5 ) —- T: 208
    8:00 PM EST : Charlotte ( 7 ) at Chicago ( -7 ) —- T: 199
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • tr_baskin

    @millerto said...

    That’s where the voodoo and gut feel comes in, right? :)

    But seriously, we’re like 8 games into the season. I take the last 5 because I wanna know how that player is doing recently. Obviously you can’t take a straight average because you need to see the highs and lows and understand why, but it’s a starting point and I believe that’s what he was asking for. Everybody has to build their own logic here.

    Thats exactly right, just needed a starting point, i can get my own thing going to see what works and what doesnt.

  • Slugworth

    @slpanthers24 said...

    Dwight is in per rotoworld

    Thanks. Now he question is, how confident are we that they won’t pull him during warm ups.

    He’s a great value on FD….

  • Dtayl913

    Better play tonight: PG or Lowry?

  • cdaus8989

    @millerto said...

    One plays for Brad Stevens and the other doesn’t.

    At the rate Sam Mitchell has being going, you could say One plays for Sam Mitchell and the other doesn’t… Overall though, I’d say Crowder, and Bjelica are 2 of the more somewhat predictable players (minutes wise) among 2 unpredictable rotations,

  • KRD227

    @slpanthers24 said...

    Dwight is in per rotoworld

    Thanks! News came out as I was writing lol…maybe that will work again if I try another guy who is possibly out. I may be going with some party Favors if Gobert is out.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’ve been approaching ‘floor’ a bit differently. In my spreadsheet I have charted percentage of time players have hit 4× 5× 6x their salary, etc If someone hits 4X or 5x a very high percentage of time, they are a target for cash (assuming there’s no change in their anticipated minutes or their situation over that period of time).

    From there I also look for obvious value plays do to players that are out, or whatever as well as matchups, etc. After all of this, that usually gives me enough of a pool to fill out my lineup.

    I’m still working on my daily routine, but this seems to be working decently—unfortunately it cant predict random injuries or ejections.

  • magicnoles

    @KRD227 said...

    I like Davis too…be careful though he’s foul prone

    Against Zbo?

  • millerto

    @cdaus8989 said...

    At the rate Sam Mitchell has being going, you could say One plays for Sam Mitchell and the other doesn’t… Overall though, I’d say Crowder, and Bjelica are 2 of the more somewhat predictable players (minutes wise) among 2 unpredictable rotations,

    Good point on Sam Mitchell. Totally forgot.

  • cdaus8989

    I’m approaching tonight like it’s a 7 man roster against other 7 man rosters on DK, and then there’s the dead money that doesn’t roster Westbrook.

  • KRD227

    @magicnoles said...

    Against Zbo?

    Historically he’s foul prone thats all I’m saying…I’ve been burned many times in the past. He’s a solid play especially in GPP but I personally can’t roster him in cash. I wouldn’t blame someone for rostering him though definitely in a decent situation

  • millerto

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    I’ve been approaching ‘floor’ a bit differently. In my spreadsheet I have charted percentage of time players have hit 4× 5× 6x their salary, etc If someone hits 4X or 5x a very high percentage of time, they are a target for cash (assuming there’s no change in their anticipated minutes or their situation over that period of time).

    From there I also look for obvious value plays do to players that are out, or whatever as well as matchups, etc. After all of this, that usually gives me enough of a pool to fill out my lineup.

    I’m still working on my daily routine, but this seems to be working decently—unfortunately it cant predict random injuries or ejections.

    Very valid. But I just base it on points because salaries fluctuate. I have point totals that I want to hit and I will try to work the salaries to match those totals once I establish top plays and must avoids at each position. It should be pretty easy to add a column with projected point per dollar to see the values. I just haven’t done it.

    Oh yeah and then I’ll run my lineups through some optimizers and see what they think. Then see what the twitter lineup hawkers are throwing out just to compare.

    Basically throw as much information as you can at it and then hope for the bestest.

  • Slugworth

    Anyone have thoughts on SF for tonight? I’m not loving any if them. Sitting with PG13 and Bjelka right now, but don’t have strong feelings one way or another.

    Also confused on Rondo. Seems like another just play, but I don’t really trust him. I don’t trust him to not kill me if I don’t roster him either

  • Jeremy6Morehead

    @cdaus8989 said...

    I’m approaching tonight like it’s a 7 man roster against other 7 man rosters on DK, and then there’s the dead money that doesn’t roster Westbrook.

    Exactly. Especially in cash games tonight. In a GPP, I feel more of an urge to fade Beastbrook but there’s no way hes not in my lineup in cash

  • TakeTheOver

    @chgojcs said...

    I don’t know. I have to go Malone and Stockton on this one. That’s an almost unbeatable stack.

    If DFS existed back then, Stockton/Malone would be a must play stack every night! Any others from recent history?

    Nash/Amare (MVP years)

  • DillonLoomis

    How are we feeling about Wes Matthews? Was his last game a sign of things to come and what we can expect for him going forward or was that game more of an outlier/fluke?

  • Sixersfan

    @millerto said...

    Take the players last 5 games, throw out any major outliers if needed. Get an average. Subtract a little just in case. Factor in matchup and add or subtract a couple based on that. Try to get a feel for minutes played. Will they be up or down? Factor that in. Throw in some gut feel and a little voodoo, Voila, each players floor. Add em all up and see where you team is at. Don’t go in assuming “THIS GUY GONNA GET ME 70 FOR SURE” Put your homer glasses aside and reason it out. If a guy has huge variance like 8 points in some games and 35 in others, then you know what you’re getting.

    Do the same thing, only different to get a ceiling. If your lineup has a floor of 210 and a ceiling of 390, well you’re gonna either win the big money or lose your dollar. Figure out your threshold for this risk and find a lineup that suits it.

    So basically take a guess because you just never know for sure.

  • Kujayhawk20659

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    I’ve been approaching ‘floor’ a bit differently. In my spreadsheet I have charted percentage of time players have hit 4× 5× 6x their salary, etc If someone hits 4X or 5x a very high percentage of time, they are a target for cash (assuming there’s no change in their anticipated minutes or their situation over that period of time).

    From there I also look for obvious value plays do to players that are out, or whatever as well as matchups, etc. After all of this, that usually gives me enough of a pool to fill out my lineup.

    I’m still working on my daily routine, but this seems to be working decently—unfortunately it cant predict random injuries or ejections.

    How do you adjust for the price increases or decreases?
    Say tonight westy hits 5x, two weeks from now his price goes up 1k and only starts hitting 4x value.

  • tonytone1908

    @cdaus8989 said...

    I’m approaching tonight like it’s a 7 man roster against other 7 man rosters on DK, and then there’s the dead money that doesn’t roster Westbrook.

    I have a good feeling the winning roster WON’T have Westbrook on it. He loves to drive to the hoop and that’s gonna be hard with Noel and Okafor down low. Although typing that out leads me to believe this could be a closer game than you would think which would keep Westbrook in late and doing work.

    I’m only doing one lineup tonight and trying to focus on guys that’ll be low owned. Playing Russ won’t let me do that.

  • FUNGO24

    @tonytone1908 said...

    I have a good feeling the winning roster WON’T have Westbrook on it. He loves to drive to the hoop and that’s gonna be hard with Noel and Okafor down low. Although typing that out leads me to believe this could be a closer game than you would think which would keep Westbrook in late and doing work.

    I’m only doing one lineup tonight and trying to focus on guys that’ll be low owned. Playing Russ won’t let me do that.

    building around Westbrook isn’t hard…but if you fading Westbrook tonight with no Durant, GL.

    See Westy, take Westy.

  • GTRandy27

    play the numbers as you wish, but in the game charlotte played vs the knicks big Al seemed scared to take his shots. the rebounds should be there vs gasol but idk if he has his offense right in the past few days

  • xHotLineBlingx

    Damn Dwight is a must play tonight fellas Denver Bigs can’t handle Superman

  • Slugworth

    @xHotLineBlingx said...

    Damn Dwight is a must play tonight fellas

    I’m trying to find a replacement for PG13 right now so I can roster Dwight. This is getting hard

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 444

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @tonytone1908 said...

    I have a good feeling the winning roster WON’T have Westbrook on it. He loves to drive to the hoop and that’s gonna be hard with Noel and Okafor down low. Although typing that out leads me to believe this could be a closer game than you would think which would keep Westbrook in late and doing work.

    I’m only doing one lineup tonight and trying to focus on guys that’ll be low owned. Playing Russ won’t let me do that.

    Don’t let ownership be such a large driver in selecting players.

    You really only need 2 sub 8% players on your entire roster to up the chances of a unique lineup…. unless you really think the chalk is going to miss.

  • DillonLoomis

    Thoughts on Channing Frye hitting value with his starting gig?

  • Sixersfan

    @millerto said...

    I like that one where the dog dies in the end.

    The only way I have found to get any better at this is to look at the winning lineups every single night. And try to reason out in your own way why those guys did what they did. Find the common threads, like 80% of the winning lineups had ______ in them. What led them to pick him?

    And then look at your own lineups. Find that guy that you just knew was a great pick but wasn’t. Figure out where you went wrong.

    You can’t win all the time or probably even most of the time, but you can start seeing a better pattern of consistency.

    How about the reason for your guy not doing well is because he’s human and humans are prone to have a bad night and or a great night. Come on man, it’s mostly luck don’t you think?

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