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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • superstars92

    @billholler said...

    Let me make this easier. If Durant was averaging about 65 FP per game this season, would you be all in on a 2 game slate if he was $9700. Of course you would. Well, he isn’t averaging 65 FP which is why he was 9700. Harden is averaging 65 which is why he is 12300.

    For those that haven’t figured it out, salaries are loosely based on the 5x rule. Durant was expected to get 48 (5 x .97) last night. Harden is expected to get 61.5 (5 × 1.23). If he just meets expectations and you faded him, you aren’t going to win a GPP and probably have zero chance in cash games. Yes you may cash in a GPP but I don’t make GPP lineups just trying to min cash.

    Actually this is a bit misleading. Since Steph was out, I would argue Durant was not expected to get 48 (5 × 9.7). I would argue he was expected to get more like 55, which makes it seem like he should have been priced 11k, so I buy the 11k argument. I would say Klay should have been like 7k+ too and Draymond should have been near 8k. Livingston should have been 4.5k. I would imagine if DK knew Steph was out, every single significant Warrior would have been priced up without Steph.

    However, with that said, the KD argument is still bad IMO (vs. the Harden one tonight) because the Warriors blew out the Magic. If the Magic coach hadn’t rested his key 4 guys to start the 4th and staggered them, the Warriors all see a full game, and KD, Dray, Klay all see 5x+ their price yesterday and there’s a good chance KD is in the winning lineup. Yesterday night was also special because JoJo went off at 7.9k, and he should also have been priced more like 9k.

    So a ton of mispricingins yesterday (Lou Williams, JoJo) in the night slate (along with KD sans Curry) made it kind of hard to tell exactly if he was a good or bad pick. This with the fact that the Warriors blew out the Magic and the key 3 for the Warriors + Livingston didn’t see the last 4 mins where they would get massive usage + FT attempts.

    The pricing up was the case with Rozier/Smart last game without Kyrie, but since Steph was questionable, they didn’t do that.

    You’ll see this reflected in the pricing of Derrick Favors and Lou Williams next game.

  • nickybarnes2369

    As a die hard Celtics fan, I think tonights game is a trap game. I wouldn’t be worried about minute restrictions for any Celtic starter. Brooklyn has a tendency to play us tough on occasion. Riding an emotional high after sunday and the Dubs coming to town Thursday, I can see BK keeping this within 5-10. I’m all in on Horford tonight as well as RHJ, as he is the only Net I trust in that rotation.

  • vandymark

    @malickiville said...

    “easily hit 30+”? Or do it on the reg? I mean Tarik Black could also easily hit 30 if thinks work out just right—-and counting on that to happen for 5-6 value plays is all a big part of the gamble.

    I’m done with you dude

  • malickiville

    @billholler said...

    It happens every time there is a super stud on a small slate. Now I got some dude giving me “what ifs” about last nights slate and he can’t seem to grasp why it isn’t relevant.

    Let me make this easier. If Durant was averaging about 65 FP per game this season, would you be all in on a 2 game slate if he was $9700. Of course you would. Well, he isn’t averaging 65 FP which is why he was 9700. Harden is averaging 65 which is why he is 12300.

    For those that haven’t figured it out, salaries are loosely based on the 5x rule. Durant was expected to get 48 (5 x .97) last night. Harden is expected to get 61.5 (5 × 1.23). If he just meets expectations and you faded him, you aren’t going to win a GPP and probably have zero chance in cash games. Yes you may cash in a GPP but I don’t make GPP lineups just trying to min cash.

    I see him only avg 56.8? Not doubting what you are saying, as I am trying to learn more to get better. But to your GPP points—-If he only gets 61.5, IMO that would be tough to win a GPP unless no one else gets into the 50’s. Just grasping for concepts here. I assume all else being equal, as long as no one else goes way above expectations, then the 61.5 would be way above the field. Just seems like I would need about 70-80 to win a GPP at that price. Appreciate any feedback.

    Last nights small slate example wasn’t even in the same zip code as there was also Blake, Simmons, Embiid, Green, on and on that all have had or are capable of 60+ outings.

  • KOTN26

    I was excited to see Draymond 9.6% on fd yesterday. Good spot but didn’t do shit.

  • gausman7

    I’m with BillHoller here. Durant has been a 50 point guy this year. Harden has 90 point upside with little competition as max scorer and next best option is LMA who is thousands of dollars less. In this case, outside of being contrarian and hoping for a broken ankle…you play Harden. Just opinions though

  • superstars92

    You can answer the Harden question easily tonight.

    Look at his ownership in the 8 dollar tournament. I think it’ll be like 50% (or X%)? Do you think he has a 50% (or X%) to be in the winning lineup. If you think he has a 50% chance to be in the winning lineup, you choose him. Otherwise, you don’t choose him. This is for a SE, but it applies to ME too (underweight vs. overweight vs. X%).

    Hope that makes sense.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #75

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @frugal said...

    Barnes starts at the 4, Dirk the 5.

    ok thanks

    I probably play him less than I wanted

  • vandymark

    @malickiville said...

    I’m not a huge fan of value talk, and not against it, I just don’t really implement it much. If CJ gets you 18 points, you will not win a GPP unless Harden gets 75-80. These low priced guys you need almost “10x value” if that’s how you look at it.

    The guy who won the GPP last night had TJ McConnell who put up a big 21… so I think what you said is incorrect

  • jwq14

    @vandymark said...

    The guy who won the GPP last night had TJ McConnell who put up a big 21… so I think what you said is incorrect

    This is also only a 3 game slate too thou. So I can see where now if you only get 18 you probably wont win.

  • malickiville

    @vandymark said...

    I’m done with you dude

    Easy there killer—-I am only on here to make constructive comments. Clearly you are on here to learn more as well, you don’t need to take your ball and go home.

    You stated you have the rest of your lineup that can easily hit 30, my counter to that was that technically every single player could hit 30, and was asking you about “on the reg” to get some feedback.

    This is a forum to help each other—not to get offended or take things personally when someone gives a counter point.

  • TheAnswer

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    • x3

      2017 Blogger of the Month

    I wish we could move on from this Harden talk and debate instead about the actual GPP winning plays on the slate, yes Harden is the best player on the slate, the highest priced player with the highest ceiling, a must-play in cash and a close-to-must play in GPPs. Harden is the most sure thing for at least 40 points on this small slate so let’s move on please.

  • NoLimits0

    @gausman7 said...

    I’m with BillHoller here. Durant has been a 50 point guy this year. Harden has 90 point upside with little competition as max scorer and next best option is LMA who is thousands of dollars less. In this case, outside of being contrarian and hoping for a broken ankle…you play Harden. Just opinions though

    Durant could easily have gone for 70 yesterday without Steph. Durant averages 50 FP a game and Harden averages like 65. You are comparing Durants average to Hardens max which is unfair. Durant has a max of 70 FP which is perfectly reasonable at 9.7k.

  • vandymark

    @jwq14 said...

    This is also only a 3 game slate too thou. So I can see where now if you only get 18 you probably wont win.

    That is true.. I agree with an 18 spot on your roster your chances are not good, but i would rather have him + a stud than two average joes

  • Unico10

    • 711

      RG Overall Ranking

    I get all the Harden talk and in cash is a must play… in GPP there is merit to a fade ONLY based on the fact that BOS is playing a horrible defending team without their best scorer.

    THAT SAID…. BOS-BKN could easily be over by the 4th quarter.

    Not a good slate to invest too much on.

  • malickiville

    @frugal said...

    Here’s some value guys playing tonight who have recently delivered:

    Theis 7X
    Tucker 7.2X
    Dwight Powell 7.75X
    Joe Harris 7.9X
    Ginobili 8.1X
    Paul 8.5X
    Forbes 8.7X
    Mejri 11X

    You pick the right value guy tonight and the rest will fall into place. Notice Miles isn’t among my list. Not saying Miles is a horrible play, but he’s just not played like he did last season for Indy.

    Nice—-thanks dude

  • superstars92

    I’m a bit confused on the Harden talk. Isn’t it price dependent on whether you should be choosing him or not? In the extreme example, if Harden was 15k, would you choose him simply because he’s got the highest ceiling, the highest floor, and is a lock for 40 and probably 50 with an upside of 90?

    Also, why does it matter if it was GPP or cash? I only have him on cash because I have some good low value plays, but if they didn’t exist, I probably don’t have him on cash.

    I pretty much avoided RWB in cash almost every slate last year and did fine because I think it’s really a whole team that matters. It’s hard to find good players with Harden, but luckily there are a few tonight so that’s why I have him.

  • roadrunner1976

    @malickiville said...

    Nice—-thanks dude

    Yeah thanks for that.. not quite sure why the experts like miles so much. Not much to look at there.

    On the other hand they have been pretty spot on when predicting when Stephenson goes off for 30…

    I dunno. I like Harris and Mbah moute

  • w3stcoastoff3ns3

    @NoLimits0 said...

    In yesterday’s 2 game night slate, KD was NOT on the winning GPP lineup even though he was in a better position than Harden is today (without Steph). And that’s a 2 game slate where you have even fewer choices than today.

    Small slates happen all the time with the night slates. 50% of the time the highest priced player is not in the winning lineup.

    But I’m glad you have data to support that 90% right?

    This isn’t to say Harden won’t be on the winning lineup but to claim 90% is ridiculous. It’s 50% which is why this Harden debate is good.

    IMO you are right in this situation, but dang it seems like you and Bill stay beefing. lol

  • billholler

    @malickiville said...

    I see him only avg 56.8? Not doubting what you are saying, as I am trying to learn more to get better. But to your GPP points—-If he only gets 61.5, IMO that would be tough to win a GPP unless no one else gets into the 50’s. Just grasping for concepts here.

    If it hasn’t been mentioned today, small slates you are looking for raw points. In most cases small slates are won with raw points and a few value plays. Tonight we have a super stud and a handful of value guys.

  • superstars92

    @billholler said...

    If it hasn’t been mentioned today, small slates you are looking for raw points. In most cases small slates are won with raw points and a few value plays. Tonight we have a super stud and a handful of value guys.

    Yes the value guys is the key. If that didn’t exist, I think you don’t have to choose Harden. I think the value guys > Harden in importance.

  • nickybarnes2369

    As someone who is fairly new to NBA, Ive made my money on NFL and MLB cash, I think the smart play is 4 lineups..2 Harden, 2 fade Harden.

  • billholler

    @w3stcoastoff3ns3 said...

    IMO you are right in this situation, but dang it seems like you and Bill stay beefing. lol

    No beef. I think he’s just a millenial that has never before been told he is wrong and he doesn’t know how to behave once proven wrong.

    BTW, the Harden vs. Durant argument was proven ridiculous in the comments that followed the one you quoted.

  • w3stcoastoff3ns3

    @nickybarnes2369 said...

    As someone who is fairly new to NBA, Ive made my money on NFL and MLB cash, I think the smart play is 4 lineups..2 Harden, 2 fade Harden.

    Agreed. I’m fading Harden on my single entry and late night line up. Playing him in all three of my GPP line ups. IF he duds it will a huge diffrence in single entry GPP’s and that 2 game lat night slate.

  • dtrain187

    Dinwiddie sounds like he will be really chalky. Any good pivots? Thinking Levert or Whitehead.

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