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  • bhdevault

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  • JSteele

    @ASalvaro said...

    Christian Wood is questionable now? lol

    I saw he was probable

  • ASalvaro

    prob put the Q on Wood because he’s going to be very popular and to scare people off

  • ScofieldReturns

    any insight into kennard? was waiting for blake to get ruled out so i could play him lol

  • ASalvaro

    @JSteele said...

    I saw he was probable

    yup probable..where did that injury come from all of a sudden??

  • captainwacky

    @NoLimits0 said...

    You are making a huge assumption they crush. In fact they don’t. Like I said I manage to match the projections of several pros ranked 30-70 who are max entry players who probably aren’t profitable yesterday.

    The ones who do as I mentioned like Awesemo, youdacao, and the brothers (even if they work together) have their own set of projections or strategies very different than the other large group of pros who literally just borrowed some weighing function of public projections.

    My friend did this for MLB every night and he made like 30k for the year so I think it can still somewhat work. However with more and more I don’t think it really works in the NBA cash games but I’m testing it out now.

    This is the main reason why cash lines in gpps and double ups are super similar. More of these optimal lineup pros make up a higher % of double ups.

    I’m just giving you this info to help. Like you can use this info to know they’ll be super overweight Drummond tonight. You can use that to fade or not. Like I know they’ll choose Drummond simply because optimizers like it.

    How do you know they don’t crush? Similarly, what if the optimal path for their time is to follow projections that may lead to similar conclusions across they board, and then they vary their strategies in places that you aren’t noticing as much, such as GPP rosters or higher stakes H2H? It’s crazy to me that you think you can distill strategies of guys who are clearly far more skilled than most people at this to something so visible, and yet you can’t replicate it. I know it’s fun to be like “those guys aren’t anything special, if I had that bankroll, etc…” Usually not the case.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #56

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    @ASalvaro said...

    yup probable..where did that injury come from all of a sudden??

    Last night probably.

    Teams on a B2B don’t have to put out an injury report until much later in the day.

  • ASalvaro

    looks like the whole Piston team is a game time decision..may as well cancel

  • ASalvaro

    @Pandamonious said...

    Last night probably.

    Teams on a B2B don’t have to put out an injury report until much later in the day.

    ohh ok that clears it up..thanks

  • JSteele

    @captainwacky said...

    How do you know they don’t crush? Similarly, what if the optimal path for their time is to follow projections that may lead to similar conclusions across they board, and then they vary their strategies in places that you aren’t noticing as much, such as GPP rosters or higher stakes H2H? It’s crazy to me that you think you can distill strategies of guys who are clearly far more skilled than most people at this to something so visible, and yet you can’t replicate it. I know it’s fun to be like “those guys aren’t anything special, if I had that bankroll, etc…” Usually not the case.

    I truly believe that anyone of us on this forum that are constantly talking about the slate and knowledgeable about the game of basketball can beat any of these “pros.” We are a small subset of people that play this game.

    I once played a guy on a smaller site for $100 H2H when Anthony Davis was severely mispriced after coming back from injury (like min priced). That guy didn’t have AD and I won very easily. I continued to play against him and won about $1000 after a week.

    I think these pros will play thousands of dollars in cash and they will win some and lose some. The best pros win more than they lose by a small margin.

  • raul214

    @JSteele said...

    I love Wendell Carter for 6200

    he hurt me so bad yesterday..i looked at him again today but im afraid to go back.

  • zpa1989

    the model keeps telling me to play sexton. is this wrong? i just don’t see any upside on FD at 5500. i mean maybe he can flirt with 40 with love out?

  • yisman

    ridiculously busy day of NBA news

    now Love out

  • captainwacky

    @JSteele said...

    I truly believe that anyone of us on this forum that are constantly talking about the slate and knowledgeable about the game of basketball can beat any of these “pros.” We are a small subset of people that play this game.

    I once played a guy on a smaller site for $100 H2H when Anthony Davis was severely mispriced after coming back from injury (like min priced). That guy didn’t have AD and I won very easily. I continued to play against him and won about $1000 after a week.

    I think these pros will play thousands of dollars in cash and they will win some and lose some. The best pros win more than they lose by a small margin.

    How do you think they got to and maintained the success they had? It’s probably via focusing their efforts in ways that we do at this point, and then figuring out a more automated and optimal path to a consistent ROI. It’s just so far fetched that these guys are idiots who don’t know sports, solely use readily available projections, all use the same lineup, etc. You can draw correlation to some of those things at times when they pop up, but the reality is at the highest end of the spectrum, these dudes are investing more time, energy, money, resources, and ultimately have better skill than the average person whining here on a forum. No offense to all of us.

  • NoLimits0

    @captainwacky said...

    How do you know they don’t crush? Similarly, what if the optimal path for their time is to follow projections that may lead to similar conclusions across they board, and then they vary their strategies in places that you aren’t noticing as much, such as GPP rosters or higher stakes H2H? It’s crazy to me that you think you can distill strategies of guys who are clearly far more skilled than most people at this to something so visible, and yet you can’t replicate it. I know it’s fun to be like “those guys aren’t anything special, if I had that bankroll, etc…” Usually not the case.

    I’ve done an analysis about this posted on RG before. I called SaahilSud was going downhill when he was still ranked #1. When he still had the number 1 ranking I knew he was losing a ton of money so I had no doubt he was going to drop. I said that with EHafner (previously top player). You can do your own analysis with ResultsDB. It just doesn’t have cash games but there’s almost no way they can overcome that if they aren’t profitable in GPPs since cash is harder EV wise these days.

    Trust me use some logic. If you are max entering every contest for every sport as well as playing in the highest stakes games and ranked like 40th? You aren’t profitable.

    You want to know someone else who hasn’t been super profitable these past few months? Shawnzhan for example but ranked still high. Doesn’t mean he’s a bad player but profitability is something you can analyze. The issue is it takes them about 1.5-2 years before they really scale it down and quit since they had previous success and have some bankroll built up or have that power to still succeed.

    Besides if I’m getting the same lineup as them just running a public optimizer it’s pretty obviously most use it. In fact you all should do it on average it’s better than hand projections unless you are like absolutely elite like the brothers Awesemo or youdacao.

  • JSteele

    Awesemo sells his projections now anyway, so you can use the same stuff he uses to build

  • Petergunz82

    Hard to not like Bruce Brown, Kief, Wood with all the injuries

  • choppadown

    I know we have beaten the Khem Birch tree to death, but how is this guy priced up so much on FD? It’s not making sense to me for him to be 5,700 even if he’s starting.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #56

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    @Petergunz82 said...

    Hard to not like Bruce Brown, Kief, Wood with all the injuries

    I got a lot of Wood on DK. Kieff on Yahoo.

    Working on geting Bruce Brown somewhere. Think I have a share on Yahoo. Probably end up with some on DK too.

  • NoLimits0

    @JSteele said...

    Awesemo sells his projections now anyway, so you can use the same stuff he uses to build

    It’s not exactly the same though he does it in a much better way in terms of building by maximizing variance.

    Also no ones talked about him but Myles Turner is someone no ones talked about but from a points/price standpoint “some” optimizers like

    In fact Turner vs Drummond is a toss up according to a lot of places I’ve seen when adjusted for price.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #56

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    @choppadown said...

    I know we have beaten the Khem Birch tree to death, but how is this guy priced up so much on FD? It’s not making sense to me for him to be 5,700 even if he’s starting.

    I think FD and to an extent DK really over compensated his price. I think it’s nice they took the time to bump it up knowing he was going to be starting. They seemed to go a little extreme. We’ll see.

  • JSteele

    @NoLimits0 said...

    It’s not exactly the same though he does it in a much better way in terms of building by maximizing variance.

    Also no ones talked about him but Myles Turner is someone no ones talked about but from a points/price standpoint “some” optimizers like

    In fact Turner vs Drummond is a toss up according to a lot of places I’ve seen when adjusted for price.

    Turner has a size advantage against Orlando but you have a lot of good plays in that range.

    Where do the optimizers stand on Tristan Thompson?

  • NoLimits0

    JSteele I disagree. Although all of us may love basketball more or talk about it more, the problem is DFS is a technical sport and most of us don’t have the technical ability. Most pros don’t either so they rely on these pretty good projections that eliminate bias. However with that the absolute best pros have a technical background they can make their own projections.

    For example youdacao and awesemo have very technical backgrounds. Youdacao used to be a data analyst.

    I agree if we can all pool our ideas together we can be better. However the issue is independetely each one of us aren’t great technically as compared to a pro or a optimizer that has a lot of technical ability.

  • NoLimits0

    @JSteele said...

    Turner has a size advantage against Orlando but you have a lot of good plays in that range.

    Where do the optimizers stand on Tristan Thompson?

    I’m waiting for it to update. Love was just ruled out.

  • JSteele

    Also DeAndre Hunter is in a great spot. I think Toronto is one of those teams that people don’t like to target but they suck against the SF. He’s been jacking up shots lately too. 29 in the last 2 games.

    I don’t think he’ll be highly owned.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #56

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    @JSteele said...

    Also DeAndre Hunter is in a great spot. I think Toronto is one of those teams that people don’t like to target but they suck against the SF. He’s been jacking up shots lately too. 29 in the last 2 games.

    I don’t think he’ll be highly owned.

    Maybe. They’re rough through the middle basically. Think it’s a great bounce back spot for Parker, personally.

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