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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:00 PM EST : Golden St ( 0 ) at Toronto ( 0 ) —- T: —
    10:30 PM EST : Indiana ( 4.5 ) at LA Lakers ( -4.5 ) —- T: 216
    10:30 PM EST : LA Clippers ( -3 ) at Sacramento ( 3 ) —- T: 234

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • fightingjohn

    @Njsum1 said...

    Avery Bradley is to making shots, like a camel is to_______.

    Toe

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Ace15 said...

    The more I dig into this slate. Kawahii is an easy fade for me. Too many options on that team. KD/LEBRON will have the everything run through them no matter what. Can’t past that volume up. It’s like Harden last night, don’t overthink it the ball will be in his hands most of the night, won’t make the same mistake again.

    You’re probably right. KD and LBJ are more expensive, but they’re the only 2 that can hit 80. Kawhi is probably maxed at 60 or so, unless the game goes nuts and sees OT, at which point Durant will probably will hit some nut score like 80.

    The main reason and only reason to play Kawhi, is it’s 3 games and if something odd happens like Durant and LBJ only hit 55 each or so, but Kawhi does hit 55-60 if you have him and something more balanced you win.

  • kbsktbll88

    @Pandamonious said...

    Shumpert, McDermott, Bradley, KCP? Iggy? Bradley, Hart?

    Which punt is breaking the slate? It’s not Giles or Livingston is it?

    Add Jarebko to that list. His away splits are great.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    Add Jarebko to that list. His away splits are great.

    Yeah, there’s a few more I didn’t even mention. Like Jerebko a bit tonight. He correlates well with Klay.

  • machzeagher

    I’m not as good at finding or using statistics as you guys are. Not even sure where to look but has anyone taken a look at history between Kawhi and KD? I know it’s a short slate and he’s the only way GS stays in the game but shouldn’t Kawhi defense limit KD? May as well go Bron or even a more balanced approach fitting a bunch of mid tier guys in there if you feel like it’s not a Bron night.

  • gaelicgirl

    @Njsum1 said...

    Avery Bradley is to making shots, like a camel is to_______.

    Going through the eye of a needle?

  • kbsktbll88

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, there’s a few more I didn’t even mention. Like Jerebko a bit tonight. He correlates well with Klay.

    I’m just trying to figure out whether or not I want to fade Cook. FL has him projected at 36-40% owned tonight.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    I’m just trying to figure out whether or not I want to fade Cook. FL has him projected at 36-40% owned tonight.

    Interesting. I had no intention of playing Cook.

  • dominicanpapi

    @machzeagher said...

    I’m not as good at finding or using statistics as you guys are. Not even sure where to look but has anyone taken a look at history between Kawhi and KD? I know it’s a short slate and he’s the only way GS stays in the game but shouldn’t Kawhi defense limit KD? May as well go Bron or even a more balanced approach fitting a bunch of mid tier guys in there if you feel like it’s not a Bron night.

    I read somewhere, I forgot where, KD’s never scored more than 55 fantasy points against Kawhi.

    I do disagree somewhat that KD and Lebron are in a similar situation like Harden. Harden played a trash team like Washington and went off, he went off against Dallas too. The matchup, especially for KD is completely different as Toronto ranks very high in defense. If KD were playing IDK….the Hawks, I see your point but Toronto legitimately can throw probably 4 guys at him, which is why I think Klay is in a good spot. I’m still on the fence with Lebron, if Ball is out, you get point Lebron with the usage and fp/min output and THAT’s hard to turn down even though the game environment vs. Indiana isn’t favorable.

  • kbsktbll88

    @Pandamonious said...

    Interesting. I had no intention of playing Cook.

    26, 23.50, 30.75, 23.25, 31, 25 last 6 DK scores with Draymond out. And DK keeps dropping his salary, now down to $4,800. I’m gonna guess he’s over 50% owned.

  • Benf15harp

    @fightingjohn said...

    Toe

    Lol

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    26, 23.50, 30.75, 23.25, 31, 25 last 6 DK scores with Draymond out. And DK keeps dropping his salary, now down to $4,800. I’m gonna guess he’s over 50% owned.

    Those aren’t good results at that price. This also might be his toughest match up in the last 6 looking back too.

    Looks like a good GPP fade to me, or at least being way, way under the field. Rather play Fox, Collison, SGA, or just put Lou there.

  • frugal

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    You’re right, pace is still slow. Maybe their defense has slipped? They’re giving up a lot of points. I just think there’s value in that game. Miami had Wade and Bam both put up 50 burgers against them. After KD and Klay there’s nobody above $5,000 on their team. Somebody could be in for a big night. We’ve seen Cook and Jarebko have big nights before.

    Yeah, it’s odd that they’re giving up better than average points at that pace. Been looking into it and it doesn’t quite make sense, over the last 3 games 5th lowest points in paint, 6th lowest opponent FG%, though they are offering near the top 3rd in opponent 3P%. Gotta be 3’s I guess. If a team hits better than average 3’s they turn a possessions into 1.5 possessions in terms of potential points.

  • Benf15harp

    @machzeagher said...

    I’m not as good at finding or using statistics as you guys are. Not even sure where to look but has anyone taken a look at history between Kawhi and KD? I know it’s a short slate and he’s the only way GS stays in the game but shouldn’t Kawhi defense limit KD? May as well go Bron or even a more balanced approach fitting a bunch of mid tier guys in there if you feel like it’s not a Bron night.

    You’re correct on bron vs Kd
    Stats aren’t necessary to reach that conclusion
    Kd on the road vs The best defender in the league
    Or Lebron at home and cheaper vs bog/Thad/tyreke LoL
    No brainer

  • Benf15harp

    There isn’t a chance in hell Quinn cook is 50% owned tonight

  • kbsktbll88

    @Pandamonious said...

    Those aren’t good results at that price. This also might be his toughest match up in the last 6 looking back too.

    Looks like a good GPP fade to me, or at least being way, way under the field. Rather play Fox, Collison, SGA, or just put Lou there.

    Yeah nothing great. But the floor is there since he’s playing 30 minutes. Hard to fade a guy at $4,800 if he has a 20 point floor. But aside from that one 41.25 point game against Brooklyn, he hasn’t really done anything great. I might fade him in like half, I don’t plan on doing too many lineups tonight.

  • Benf15harp

    Lance REVENGE

  • Ace15

    @dominicanpapi said...

    I read somewhere, I forgot where, KD’s never scored more than 55 fantasy points against Kawhi.

    I do disagree somewhat that KD and Lebron are in a similar situation like Harden. Harden played a trash team like Washington and went off, he went off against Dallas too. The matchup, especially for KD is completely different as Toronto ranks very high in defense. If KD were playing IDK….the Hawks, I see your point but Toronto legitimately can throw probably 4 guys at him, which is why I think Klay is in a good spot. I’m still on the fence with Lebron, if Ball is out, you get point Lebron with the usage and fp/min output and THAT’s hard to turn down even though the game environment vs. Indiana isn’t favorable.

    A couple nights ago we said the same thing about Milsap who has never played well against Lebron. Dude went nuts. 3 game slate, if TOR/GSW stays close..HIGH probability KD/KLAY eating, on the flipside it could be anyone crushing for TOR. IMO low probability Lakers beat IND without Lebron playing well tonight. Like I said before he’s coming off one of his worse games…this is a game in LA, he’ll try to show out and redeem himself. I thought OKC would blowout CLE, RWB went off, im off the blowout narrative for rest of season.

  • scorer79

    I’d play one balanced lineup just in case the studs falter. honestly, none of them look to be in good spots other than just the sheer usage two of them will get. I think LBJ is tops followed by Kawhi and then KD personally.

  • Benf15harp

    Daren collison UCLA alum 🔐

  • kbsktbll88

    @frugal said...

    Yeah, it’s odd that they’re giving up better than average points at that pace. Been looking into it and it doesn’t quite make sense, over the last 3 games 5th lowest points in paint, 6th lowest opponent FG%, though they are offering near the top 3rd in opponent 3P%. Gotta be 3’s I guess. If a team hits better than average 3’s they turn a possessions into 1.5 possessions in terms of potential points.

    Well I guess that’s good for Klay then.

  • draggin49

    Hmmmm, I know KD is getting the heavy usage , but as far as the nba goes I don’t think there is a better guy to match up against him defensively than Kawhi.
    Trying to settle on how many DK pts KD will end up with .
    Yes , KD went off vs ORL and SAC for 70 something DK pts but both of those teams aren’t even that good and certainly don’t have someone like kawhi to stick on KD.

    LBJ if lonzo is out seems like a better play with more usage . We all know LBJ can take over but many nights he just seems to not try and do so. Which at his price will hurt you.

    I guess it is a short slate and you need raw points but to fit these guys I’m assuming you gotta go really cheap at a few other spots in your lineup

  • frugal

    @Benf15harp said...

    You’re correct on bron vs Kd
    Stats aren’t necessary to reach that conclusion
    Kd on the road vs The best defender in the league
    Or Lebron at home and cheaper vs bog/Thad/tyreke LoL
    No brainer

    I know this has been said many, many times on this forum. But NBA defense isn’t a pure man to man game which aligns based on arbitrary position designation. Additionally, NBA offense isn’t so simple as to allow a good defender to cover every shot a player takes. If the GSW/TOR game stays close, these is a very, very large chance it’s due to Durant getting his as his usage rate is 40% with tonight’s projected starting lineup. The Lakers starters are far, far more balanced with James having 26.2% usage rate. Ball’s usage is very low, so a replacement starter doesn’t necessarily impact James in a huge way either.

  • Epignosis

    • 458

      RG Overall Ranking

    @dominicanpapi said...

    I read somewhere, I forgot where, KD’s never scored more than 55 fantasy points against Kawhi.

    https://www.statmuse.com/musings/kevin-durant-earned-558-draftkings-points-versus-kawhi-leonard-in-game-1-79c78e1e

  • frugal

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    Well I guess that’s good for Klay then.

    Looking at the usage of tonights starters, KD 40%, Klay 30%. If this game stays close, it’s all about them.

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