NBA FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 1 ) at Philadelphia ( -1 ) —- T: 216.5
    7:00 PM EST : Boston ( -7 ) at Orlando ( 7 ) —- T: 215.5
    7:00 PM EST : New York ( 1.5 ) at Indiana ( -1.5 ) —- T: 219
    7:00 PM EST : Toronto ( 3 ) at Washington ( -3 ) —- T: 218.5
    7:00 PM EST : Portland ( -3.5 ) at Cleveland ( 3.5 ) —- T: 220
    7:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 5.5 ) at Brooklyn ( -5.5 ) —- T: 219
    8:00 PM EST : LA Clippers ( 1 ) at Minnesota ( -1 ) —- T: 217.5
    8:00 PM EST : Denver ( 1.5 ) at Memphis ( -1.5 ) —- T: 213
    8:30 PM EST : Dallas ( -1.5 ) at San Antonio ( 1.5 ) —- T: 216.5
    10:00 PM EST : Charlotte ( 6 ) at Golden State ( -6 ) —- T: 226
    10:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 5.5 ) at Sacramento ( -5.5 ) —- T: 218.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    3-2 last night for 0.27 units. Chicago had that massive fourth quarter to bail me out two nights ago, but then the basketball Gods take it away with Chris Paul hitting 2 free throws in the final 15 seconds when Phoenix was already up 10, making me miss the New Orleans cover by .5 a point! The good news is my God Whiteside and Buddy Hield picks came through, so there’s that…

    ATS 2-2
    ML 1-2
    O/U 5-2

    Looking like another fun night, let’s get to it…One thing I’m changing is mentioning players in my lineups over 10% only.

    Chi@Phi – So many mixed signals for Philly. 1st, they are playing a 4th straight home game which is a massive uptick for winning percentage. They are playing the front of a B2B, which is a solid downtick in winning percentage. Chicago is playing a 2nd straight road game (bad) and both teams are playing on 1 day’s rest, bad for Philly, good for Chicago. Philly is favored by 1.5 and I project Philly by 1 before these factors. However, Vegas does have this as the fourth lowest scoring game at 216.5 and I have it the third highest at 222. Give me the Over.

    Bet: Take the Over
    DK values: Niang, Milton, Korkmaz all over 5x
    High DKP: Embiid – 48.25
    Bust: Lonzo Ball – 32.1
    My lineups: Korkmaz – 11%

    NY@Ind – Not much to note here. Both teams coming off one day’s rest and NY is playing their first on a road trip while Indy plays their third straight home game. Indy has the advantage with the home streak, but the road team benefits from both having a day’s rest. Indy’s favored by 1.5 and I have NY by .5, but the total is 219 while I have it at 222 and that’s before the factors above, which benefit scoring. Take the over here too.

    Bet: Take the Over
    DK Values: Noel 5x
    High DKP: Domantas Sabonis – 45
    Bust: LaVert
    My Lineups: None

    Por@Cle – Portland is playing a 3 in 4, all on the road, wrapping up a three game road swing. Meanwhile, Cleveland plays a 1 game home stand on a day’s rest. These factors lower both teams scores and raises the home winning percentage up a tick, playing into Cleveland’s favor. But, let’s talk regression to the mean for a minute. Portland is 0-4 on the road. Dame is due. McCollum is due. Covington is due. Cleveland has a winning record. Cleveland (probably) won’t finish with a winning record. I’m not saying this is a Portland get well game, but come on. Portland’s fqavored by 3.5 and I got them by 2, but that downtick confirms what I’m showing for the total. The second highest total for the night, but I have it 4 below that and even worse when factoring in the above.

    Bet: Take the Under
    DK values: Allen, Markannen, and Powell all above 5x
    High DKP: Dame -39.25
    Bust: Dame
    My lineups: Allen – 24%, Markannen – 19%

    Bos@Orl – Orlando plays the first of a home stand on one day’s rest while Boston plays the front end of a B2B for the first road game on a day’s rest. Every single one of these factors plays into Boston’s favor except for the 1st road game. Boston’s favored by 7.5 and I have them by 3, but I have tis as the 4th highest scoring game while they have it the second lowest. Taking the Over here too.

    Bet: Take the Over
    DK Values: Ross, TimeLord, Franz, Carter, Smart, and Anthony.
    High DKP: Tatum – 44.25
    Bust: Gary Harris
    My Lineups: Anthony – 25%, Horford and Carter – 13%

    Tor@Was – Washington opens a homestand while Toronto plays their third straight on the road. 1 day’s rest for both teams. Slight advantage to Washington with the third straight road game for Toronto, but 4 or more straight road games benefit road teams. Think it’s about getting in a rhythm, but anyway, I digress. Washington’s favored by 3, but I got them by 6.5. Total of 218.5 almost matches mine of 218.

    Bet: Washington covers 3
    DK Values: Svi 7x, Trent and Pope over 5x
    High DKP: Beal – 42
    Bust: Beal
    My Lineups: Svi – 93%, Trent – 26%

    Atl@Brk – Brooklyn is playing their SIXTH straight home game. Atlanta is playing the first of a road trip on the front end of a B2B. Brooklyn is coming off two days rest while Atlanta has a day’s rest. Mixed signals here. Road teams playing the front end of a B2B is a good thing, but 6 straight home games is massive and that extra day’s rest leans towards Brooklyn. Brooklyn is favored by 5.5 and I have Atlanta by 3 before the above factors. The total here is 218.5, I have it at 216.5. I’m going to be honest, I don’t want to touch this one at all.

    Bet: Take Atlanta to cover
    Dk values: None
    High DKP: Durant – 46
    Bust(s): Blake, Bruce Brown, Huerter
    Lineups: None

    Den@Mem – Memphis is playing their 3rd straight home game and Denver is playing their third straight road game. Both have a day’s rest. The first sentence favors Memphis, the 2nd favors Denver. Vegas has Memphis by 1.5 but I have Denver by 2.5. Point total from Vegas is 212 while I have it at 211. Another ugly one, but I’m liking the upset here.

    Bet: Denver Moneyline at -105
    DK Values: Adams, Gordon, Barton, and Anderson all over 5x
    High DKP: Joker 51.25
    Busts: Campuzzano
    Lineups: Gordon – 15%, Barton – 14%, Adams – 12%, Joker – 10%

    LAC@Min – Minnesota is playing their 3rd straight home game and the Clippers begin a road trip with both on a day’s rest. Slight uptick in scoring and Minnesota gets a slight edge. Minnesota is favored by 1.5 but I have the Clippers by 2. I do have this being the lowest scoring game of the night though at a 210.5 total compared to Vegas’ 217.5

    Bet: Take the under
    DK Values: Vanderbilt – 6x, Beverly, Hqrtenstein, Bledsoe, and Batum all over 5x
    High DKP: George – 48.25
    Busts: McLaughlin (Unless Bevs is out)
    Lineups: Vanderbilt – 28%, Bledsoe – 18%, Bevs – 15%

    Dal@SA – Spurs open a homestand on a day’s rest while Dallas plays a road game while on a 3 in 4 and playing the back end of a B2B. Ewww. HUGE advantage for the Spurs, bumping a home team’s 57% winning percentage all the way up to 65%. Ew for scoring to boot. I have this as the second worst scoring game at 211.5, a full 5 points below Vegas AND somehow Vegas has the Mavs favored by 1 while I have the Spurs by 8.5. Are you kidding me?! Lots of betting goodness here. Screaming blowout.

    Bet: San Antonio ML for tracking, but I’ll take SA covering an alternate spread of -4.5.
    DK Values: Vassell and White over 5x
    High DKP: Doncic – 47
    Busts: Porzingis, Hardaway, Bullock
    Lineups: None

    Cha@GS – Golden State is playing their third straight home game with that sweet 3 days rest while Charlotte is playing a 3 in 4 on their first road game? Slight uptick on scoring, though lower for the road team and higher for the home team. Golden State is favored by 6, but if all things were equal, I’d actually have Charlotte by 1 here. They aren’t equal. I have the total at 224.5, slightly lower than the 225 Vegas has. I hate going against my projections, but the factors are just overwhelming.

    Bet: Golden State to cover 6
    Dk Values: Iguodala, Porter, and Wiggins all over 5x
    High DKP: Curry – 52.25
    Busts: Oubre (Revenge game gone wrong)
    Lineups: Curry – 15%, Wiggins – 14%

    NO@Sac – Ewww. Both teams are playing a B2B while Sacramento is also playing a 3 in 4. This is New Orleans 2nd consecutive road game while Sacramento returns home from last night’s game at Utah. The sample size is small, but in the last 5 years, the home team is 23-12 in this scenario. One of the largest edges I’ve seen. Sacramento is a 5.5 point favorite and I have them by 6.5. This made me look at those games to see how often they are decided by 10+ points. 49% of NBA games are decided by 10+ points, but these only saw that margin 29% of the time. I was expecting a Sacramento blowout, but now not so much. What I do see is scoring drops massively for both teams and affects the home team even more. The total is 218.5, but I had it at 212 and that was BEFORE seeing the big drop off in scoring.

    Bet: Under, my God, Under
    DK Values: JVal, Hield, Graham, Jones, Hart all over 5x
    High DKP: JVal – 46.5
    Busts: Trey Murphy
    Lineups: JVal – 60%, Graham and Hield – 30%, Holmes and Hart – 10%

    One thing I love about writing these things is also helps me get my thoughts together as I walk through the process for each game. Obviously, I originally loaded up on the last game for DFS, but I’m sure now I’ll be backing off some of those numbers.

    Good luck today!

  • dominicanpapi

    Centers against Sacramento.

    Rozier and Beasley are probably core plays for me tonight on FD.

    Keep your eye on the Noel/Gibson news, both are traveling with the team but I think this might be a game where Robinson plays 30+ minutes with Indiana rolling out Turner and Sabonis.

  • 10CentShowdownChamp

    Good to see dnp c/d three or is it four games in a row dragic isn’t predicted to hit 6x tonight.

  • jon2anderson

    • Blogger of the Month

    Hey everyone! I posted this yesterday, but I started a DraftKings League that I’m looking to fill with “normal” people so we can all play the game for low stakes ($5-$20 entries) and avoid all the professionals/sharps.

    I have about 20 people in there now and I’m looking to push towards 50. If you’re interested, please reply to this with your DraftKings username or DM me on twitter @JonPGH

    Thanks grinders!

  • Wooden_Bones

    It’s looking like plugging Valanciunas in and building around him is a solid start (at least for me) tonight. The Kings bleed fantasy points to centers. Plus, there’s a good chance Ingram sits again tonight.

  • dominicanpapi

    @10CentShowdownChamp said...

    Good to see dnp c/d three or is it four games in a row dragic isn’t predicted to hit 6x tonight.

    I think he’s going to get traded to Dallas as soon as he’s eligible to be moved.

  • DirkDigglerz

    I’ll pass on JVal too chalk

  • frugal

    Man, thought I finally was going to have a great last night night but all my value busted (and then WTF with LAL & HOU?).

    Typically takes around 10 games to start to look at trends and we’re getting pretty close so I finally feel I have some decent data to start to look at real defensive matchup/home away/shooting trends/etc. Ran my full model for the first time this morning and here’s some things it spit out:

    Top 5 DKFP: Jokic. George, Tatum, Towns, Sabonis

    Top 5 FP per dollar: Patrick Beverley, Monte Morris, Wendell Carter Jr., Al Horford, Franz Wanger

    Early season defensive trends worth watching tonight, note the small sample here doesn’t yet identify a trend, just some data to consider:

    SAC is giving up 1.2X league avg rebounds per game to opposing Cs while IND and CHI are giving up 1.21X league average points per game to opposing C’s.

    MEM as a team is giving up 1.15X league avg 3P%, currently #2 behind DET.

    TOR is getting blocked at 1.35X league avg.

    Player trends last 5 games (rounded):

    Al Horford is averaging 3 blocks per game.
    Paul George is averaging 4 steals per game.

    Patrick Beverly is the most consistent of players who avg more than 20 FP with an range of 21.75-26.5 and a stDev of 1.12, in other words highly likely to hit 6X+ if he plays. Dort, Duarte, and Haliburton follow.

    Highest floor player is JVal at 43.75.
    Highest ceiling is Murray 71 followed by Towns.

    Tatum and FVV lead in minutes at 39+, though note BOS had 2 OT games in the last 5.

  • Wooden_Bones

    @DirkDigglerz said...

    I’ll pass on JVal too chalk

    On an 11 game slate there’s no reason to worry about chalk.

  • dominicanpapi

    Lauri Markannen OUT. Allen and Mobley are about to be chalk city on an 11 game slate.

    Edit: I fully expect Cedi to be in the starting lineup and he moves into ‘core play’ status for me.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 264

      RG Overall Ranking

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Lauri Markannen OUT. Allen and Mobley are about to be chalk city on an 11 game slate.

    Edit: I fully expect Cedi to be in the starting lineup and he moves into ‘core play’ status for me.

    11 game slate, cedi osman and core play don’t jive IMO

  • DirkDigglerz

    Pass on Mobley , Jarrett is the one you want,

    Josh Hart a lock

  • DirkDigglerz

    @Wooden_Bones said...

    On an 11 game slate there’s no reason to worry about chalk.

    Al horford Jarrett Allen and Myles turner could match him with a 2k discount, he’s okay in cash though not gonna lie he’s in my Cash game Lineups

  • dominicanpapi

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    11 game slate, cedi osman and core play don’t jive IMO

    3600 on DK and will probably play 30 minutes and he’s a guy who can get there w/peripherals, what’s not to like? He’s the same price as Batum on FD, but I’d rather play Cedi

  • frugal

    @dominicanpapi said...

    3600 on DK and will probably play 30 minutes and he’s a guy who can get there w/peripherals, what’s not to like? He’s the same price as Batum on FD, but I’d rather play Cedi

    Think I might be more interested in one of the starters for PHI at SF/PF with Harris and Green out.

  • tmarohl

    tmarohl

  • NarrowJ

    Since Richaun Holmes joined SAC and became their starting center, he’s played 4 games against JVal (first 3, JVal played for MEM):

    Here are the rebound totals for them in these games:

    10/29/21 – JVal 13, Holmes 6
    5/13/21 – JVal 13, Holmes 2 (Holmes played limited minutes for some reason, he started the game but only played 12 mins)
    2/14/21 – JVal 13, Holmes 2
    1/2/20 – JVal 12, Holmes 7

    I was going to try to be sneaky and see if I could get 40+ fp from Holmes for 6.3k instead of 45ish from JVal for 8.5k, but that now looks like it would be quite a hill to climb. I’ll have to watch JVal’s ownership, but it looks like that’s the side you want tonight even with the B2B & travel.

  • captainwacky

    @tmarohl said...

    tmarohl

    Pokemon is getting way too damn weird these days…

  • 866

    100% DA Beas!

  • DirkDigglerz

    Poetl out hmmmmmm…… Eubanks?

  • mrjredoak

    “The hope is we can keep moving Caris’ minutes up as he tolerates the conditioning aspect of playing real NBA games,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said.

    He went 15 mins, then 23 mins in a blow out win on Monday. Could push 30 mins tonight…

  • chickenmanE

    Anyone like embiid vs Vuc?

  • frugal

    @DirkDigglerz said...

    Poetl out hmmmmmm…… Eubanks?

    Oh wow. For sure looks like a nice value play. He did well against us last game off the bench. I’ve been target bigs vs DAL so far this season with Powell starting and they’ve paid off pretty much every night.

  • captainwacky

    I’d have to think they run Thad Young out there a good amount given the Mavs roster construction as well.

  • seangeezy

    Yes, his numbers with Tobias and Simmons off the floor are absurdly good. And Vuc can’t stop him.

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