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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : NY Knicks ( 1 ) at Detroit ( -1 ) —- T: —
    7:00 PM EST : Washington ( 5.5 ) at Indiana ( -5.5 ) —- T: —
    7:30 PM EST : Sacramento ( 8 ) at Toronto ( -8 ) —- T: 219.5
    7:30 PM EST : Golden St ( 17 ) at Houston ( -17 ) —- T: —
    7:30 PM EST : Chicago ( 2.5 ) at Atlanta ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    8:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -4.5 ) at Memphis ( 4.5 ) —- T: 224
    8:30 PM EST : Orlando ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 207
    9:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 2 ) at Utah ( -2 ) —- T: 210.5
    10:00 PM EST : Milwaukee ( 1 ) at LA Clippers ( -1 ) —- T: 227.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • NarrowJ

    @tmarohl said...

    Terrance Ross out tonight

    Anything of significance there other than 18 minutes of Wes Iwundu?

  • Kmasonbx

    @Pandamonious said...

    CHI ( 108.25 ) @ ATL ( 110.25 )

    PACE: CHI- 15th ATL- 18th
    OFF EFF: CHI- 23rd ATL- 24th
    DEF EFF: CHI- 20th ATL- 9th
    REB RATE: CHI- 30th ATL- 9th

    So, a couple things:

    I’m writing these for me and you. Hopefully they’re helpful, plus since I’m putting myself out there it forces me to really critique myself to some extent. This is something I intended to do, especially on smaller slates frequently this season. However this isn’t a small slate and it’s taking longer for me to get through each game then I intended. So I’m going to try and narrow each game down from here considerably, while still being useful. Probably best for everyone.

    Also, if you want to reply to one of these with questions, instead of replying to the actual post, since they’re monstrous, I suggest just typing @Panda at the top of your post and I’ll see it. Thanks.

    Seeing Atlanta as a top tier team defensively and in the bottom half of the league in pace is odd. I’m still not sold that this is a long term thing.

    Satoransky has been a big upgrade for CHI defensively at the PG position and this is no longer a team we can just blindly stream PG’s against. Young though, without Collins receives a big boost in usage and FPPM. We saw it last game with him continuing to just post strong scores relative to price as he has all season. He’s a great pivot off what will like be a much chalkier Westbrook. Despite their DVP results, CHI is 26th worst in assists allowed per possession. They’re also allowing the 24th most 3 attempts at the 19th worse %. So, basically what Trae needs to succeed is here. Satoransky has shown no upside and is in a time share with Dunn.

    LaVine has big upside, and SG’s have had success against ATL. The B2B with travel is worth noting, but there’s nothing to suggest he couldn’t smash here.

    Huerter, Hunter, and Reddish have all struggled to succeed their price tags this season. There is nothing in this match up IMO to suggest this should change tonight. Yes, they’re all in a good spot, but they’ve been in good spots before at lesser prices and failed to succeed. Reddish and Hunter, while some day could be great, they’ve got a lot of developing still to do. Bembry is still priced up from when Trae was out. This slate is big enough to X them all out.

    Last time CHI played a B2B Otto purposefully was set at 20 minutes both nights. Last night Otto played 27, so I’m not sure how they handle him here. I’ve been using him frequently as his price has fallen, because I’m still certain those 40-50 DK point games are in him. Due to the uncertainty of minutes here, I’d rather look to the HOU/GSW game for forwards in this price range, and will avoid Otto here.

    Parker was priced up quick, but we have multiple things working in his favor.

    1) REVENGE
    2) CHI has been poor against PF’s.
    3) Minutes will be there and he held his own in the starting line up in a much lesser match up against the Spurs last time out.

    I think people are going to be very hesitant to pay this price for Parker, which intrigues me greatly for GPP’s.

    Lauri, Lauri, Lauri, what do we do with you? He suffered with the acquisition of Porter. Now White is coming in off the bench getting good minutes sucking up shots and usage. Carter I think prohibits him quite a bit more than Lopez did last year as well. I’m not sold on him having the monster upside we think he does. The price is tempting on DK, but I think continuing to play the wait and see game with him on DK is the right thing to do.

    CHI nor ATL have both been respectable against C’s. Especially when you consider something like opponent adjusted DVP. Len, Fernando and Jones are all in a time share. Carter has upside, but takes back seat to other guys hes on the floor with.

    Top Plays: Young, LaVine, Parker
    Chalky Fade: Not applicable
    Cheap Dart: Colby White
    Slate Breaker: Not really applicable, but Lauri going off and breaking my soul is possible.

    Haven’t popped into the forum at all this year but decided to take a look today as I wait for more content to come out. Really nice writeup, appreciate the time effort you put into this.

  • tmarohl

    @NarrowJ said...

    Anything of significance there other than 18 minutes of Wes Iwundu?

    Probably means a few more minutes for Fultz and MCW.

  • monarch

    @NarrowJ said...

    Anything of significance there other than 18 minutes of Wes Iwundu?

    If Fultz goes to the bench then I want a lot of that at 4k

  • Pandamonious

    • 809

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #87

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    SAC ( 105.5 ) @ TOR ( 113.5 )

    PACE: SAC- 26th TOR- 13th
    OFF EFF: SAC- 27th TOR- 12th
    DEF EFF: SAC- 22nd TOR- 7th
    REB RATE: SAC- 17th TOR- 16th

    I’m going to cut this one if half, real quick. I have no interest in anyone from Sacramento. Toronto plays methodically enough, pace wise, defense wise, that Sacramento succeeding here as a whole is unlikely. Prices are high enough that it’ll take a strong performance to truly matter on this slate. If I had to play someone from the Kings it’d be Holmes, but I doubt I will.

    Some things never change. One of those things is streaming guys against the Kings can be profitable. They’re still bad as whole defensively, especially in the back court. They reportedly want to start picking up the pace. Great for the Raptors.

    The bad thing is, the Raptors as a whole aren’t cheap and upside in these prices will be hard to find. The cheapest guys, Gasol, Ibaka, and to an extent OG, are in the hardest spots and the most volatile.

    Lowery is over 8K, which seems wild, but the production he’s getting is proving he’s worth it. With Trae and Westbrook on the slate his ownership will be low, which always intrigues me. A 50-55 fantasy point return rivaling guys like Trae and Westbrook is certainly in the realms of reality. I wouldn’t go nuts, but if building several line ups taking on some exposure is something I’d suggest.

    VanVleet is another big beneficiary of the match up. He has yet to live up to his first game of the season, but the point is the upside is here. Basically, so far he has either been in a tough match up, but got a lot of minutes or been in a great match up and lost minutes due to a blowout since night 1. If you think the Kings can keep this close,he’s definitely worth some exposure.

    Siakam seems priced a bit too low for his upside on DK. SAC has actually been pretty stout against front court opposition this season. So I think he may be riskier here then people will realize. I think people will see 8K and Kings and assume it’s a smash spot, but I’m actually going to be off Siakam here.

    Top Plays: Lowry, VanVleet
    Chalky Fade: Siakam, and all Kings
    Cheap Dart: Not really applicable, but I’ll say Holmes, although not really cheap, or Dedmon if you’re feeling extra frisky
    Slate Breaker: For me it’s Siakam, as I’ll be off, but 60+ wouldn’t shock me.

  • Shaudy_lo

    Jeremy lamb doubtful

  • dominicanpapi

    @Shaudy_lo said...

    Jeremy lamb doubtful

    Brogdon’s good chalk tonight, I like Young for $700 more, and Russ for $1300 but Brogdon and Warren are going to have all the usage.

  • tmarohl

    Sabonis and Turner questionable.

  • Pandamonious

    • 809

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #87

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    I’m going to take a break and wait and see if we get anything definitive on Indy and Minny news.

    I probably won’t take the time to write up ORL and Dallas. That’s just really a dog of a game. I usually avoid ORL games when possible and on a 9 game slate it’s easy to do.

    Doncic has huge upside obviously and PF’s are a weak spot so far for ORL, so it piques my interest in Porzingis, who would be an awesome pivot from Siakam.

  • tmarohl

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’m going to take a break and wait and see if we get anything definitive on Indy and Minny news.

    I probably won’t take the time to write up ORL and Dallas. That’s just really a dog of a game. I usually avoid ORL games when possible and on a 9 game slate it’s easy to do.

    Doncic has huge upside obviously and PF’s are a weak spot so far for ORL, so it piques my interest in Porzingis, who would be an awesome pivot from Siakam.

    I’m interested in your write up on the Bucks v Clippers. We already know Kawhi is out. There should be no one on the Bucks injury report so you don’t have to wait for news :)

  • upgradetoquestionable

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’m going to take a break and wait and see if we get anything definitive on Indy and Minny news.

    I probably won’t take the time to write up ORL and Dallas. That’s just really a dog of a game. I usually avoid ORL games when possible and on a 9 game slate it’s easy to do.

    Doncic has huge upside obviously and PF’s are a weak spot so far for ORL, so it piques my interest in Porzingis, who would be an awesome pivot from Siakam.

    Awesome work so far. Very appreciative to have your analysis Panda.

  • Ndepompei

    @tmarohl said...

    Sabonis and Turner questionable.

    How many pacers is too many if they both miss with Lamb?

  • monarch

    I already had my eye on Aaron Holiday close to the minimum.

  • JTL33

    @SteeloCity said...

    Not sure if anyone likes when I post my player props here but here are a few I like:

    Doncic over 7.5 rebounds
    Trey Young over 2.5 3’s made
    Drummond under 19.5 rebounds
    Terrence Ross under 11.5 points
    Brogdon over 29.5 points + assists
    Harden under 4.5 3’s
    Ja Morant over 17.5 points

    I like Markkanen u17.5 points as well.

  • monarch

    @Ndepompei said...

    How many pacers is too many if they both miss with Lamb?

    Probably three.

  • tmarohl

    @JTL33 said...

    I like Markkanen u17.5 points as well.

    I would do Terrence Ross under before they take it off the board as he was just ruled out.

  • chrisbanas

    I have Warren and Brogdon as my pacers

  • parrothead112

    In DK Tiers, Brogdon or Young? It seems like a crapshoot. Am I missing something?

  • mr_papageorgio

    @eleanorRigby said...

    Work in PA and live in Ohio. It seems thst I can now place bets on DK. Game on brothers and sisters. Game on.

    I’m there for work this week and Pokerstars is also live. So many ways to lose money!

  • monarch

    One thing to keep in mind before going GPP crazy with Brogdon and Warren. These guys played 40 minutes last night in Charlotte and both have been injured quite a bit in their respective careers. It’s not like the Pacers dont have the roster to beat these Wizards while dialing Brogdon and Warren back a bit. They could also get hurt.

    Excellent mid afternoon plays as was AD yesterday.

  • JSteele

    Aaron Holiday should see a ton of minutes.

  • gaelicgirl

    Awesome write ups, Panda!

    You da man…da

  • Shaudy_lo

  • JSteele

    Chriss revenge game?

  • tmarohl

    Can’t lose money on Eric Gordon tonight as he is now out.

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