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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:00 PM EST : Houston ( -3.5 ) at Miami ( 3.5 ) —- T: 209
    10:30 PM EST : Dallas ( 3.5 ) at LA Clippers ( -3.5 ) —- T: 221.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • SpockJ

    Was able to fit in Harden and a Dallas trio of Jordan, Doncic, and Barnes.

    Barnes is absolutely the best all-around scorer on the Mavs and they’re going to need him to show up. Jordan 20-20 upside, and doncic has been dealing lately without Smith.

  • Kmasonbx

    @Pandamonious said...

    Personal opinion here from DK perspective…

    He’s super easy to fit in. There isn’t a lot to pay up for. Most of Houston’s rotation (Tucker, Gordon, House, Green) is cheap and will get good minutes. Same with Miami. Most of Miami is really cheap. We’ll have to wait and see about the Clips with whether or not Lou plays, but if he’s out, all of LAC’s guards are cheap. So, fitting him in is simple.

    This is where I hate to say it, but raw points would come in. Harden could “dud” and get you 45, but still be in the winning line up as he could still be the highest scorer on the slate. All the guys priced at say, Jordan and above, and their aren’t many are all very capable of hitting no more than 35-40. If you fade Harden and ultimately end up with a more balance approach you could end up with a bunch of 5-6x type returns and do OK. Harden could 4x, but the construction leads you into some 8 and 9x cheaper plays that lead to that construction being key.

    So, my point ultimately is with only 2 games to pick from Harden could still dud and still win you all the money. His floor is 40, barring blowout (unlikely) or injury (things happen), but these aren’t things you bet on. No one else on this slate has a floor that high.

    I don’t disagree and my lean right now is to roll out 5 lineups 3 with Harden and 2 without and pray for 45 game and get 50 spots from a couple of guys, but that could change and I could go 100% Harden.

    The 1 problem with fitting in the cheap guys is they all can go out there play 30+ minutes and do absolutely nothing. Avery Bradley played 30 minutes last game and his entire stat line was 1 rebound and 1 turnover. PJ Tucker is known for his 38 minute 13 fantasy point games. House is another low PPM guy. No cheap guy is very appealing today.

  • SpockJ

    Will the Boban be released tonight?

  • Petergunz82

    @Kmasonbx said...

    I don’t disagree and my lean right now is to roll out 5 lineups 3 with Harden and 2 without and pray for 45 game and get 50 spots from a couple of guys, but that could change and I could go 100% Harden.

    The 1 problem with fitting in the cheap guys is they all can go out there play 30+ minutes and do absolutely nothing. Avery Bradley played 30 minutes last game and his entire stat line was 1 rebound and 1 turnover. PJ Tucker is known for his 38 minute 13 fantasy point games. House is another low PPM guy. No cheap guy is very appealing today.

    I could see JJ Barea and/or Pat Bev in the winning lineup

  • Mattak14

    @Pandamonious said...

    Personal opinion here from DK perspective…

    He’s super easy to fit in. There isn’t a lot to pay up for. Most of Houston’s rotation (Tucker, Gordon, House, Green) is cheap and will get good minutes. Same with Miami. Most of Miami is really cheap. We’ll have to wait and see about the Clips with whether or not Lou plays, but if he’s out, all of LAC’s guards are cheap. So, fitting him in is simple.

    This is where I hate to say it, but raw points would come in. Harden could “dud” and get you 45, but still be in the winning line up as he could still be the highest scorer on the slate. All the guys priced at say, Jordan and above, and their aren’t many are all very capable of hitting no more than 35-40. If you fade Harden and ultimately end up with a more balance approach you could end up with a bunch of 5-6x type returns and do OK. Harden could 4x, but the construction leads you into some 8 and 9x cheaper plays that lead to that construction being key.

    So, my point ultimately is with only 2 games to pick from Harden could still dud and still win you all the money. His floor is 40, barring blowout (unlikely) or injury (things happen), but these aren’t things you bet on. No one else on this slate has a floor that high.

    100% agree on this. If you’re building multiple lineups, harden should absolutely be in the great majority of them, but hey if people want to go all crazy and fade harden in single bullets or the majority of their lineups, that’s less competition to have to worry about.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    Personal opinion here from DK perspective…

    He’s super easy to fit in. There isn’t a lot to pay up for. Most of Houston’s rotation (Tucker, Gordon, House, Green) is cheap and will get good minutes. Same with Miami. Most of Miami is really cheap. We’ll have to wait and see about the Clips with whether or not Lou plays, but if he’s out, all of LAC’s guards are cheap. So, fitting him in is simple.

    This is where I hate to say it, but raw points would come in. Harden could “dud” and get you 45, but still be in the winning line up as he could still be the highest scorer on the slate. All the guys priced at say, Jordan and above, and their aren’t many are all very capable of hitting no more than 35-40. If you fade Harden and ultimately end up with a more balance approach you could end up with a bunch of 5-6x type returns and do OK. Harden could 4x, but the construction leads you into some 8 and 9x cheaper plays that lead to that construction being key.

    So, my point ultimately is with only 2 games to pick from Harden could still dud and still win you all the money. His floor is 40, barring blowout (unlikely) or injury (things happen), but these aren’t things you bet on. No one else on this slate has a floor that high.

    Going by last year, Harden duds about 1 out of every 4 times in a back to back 3 in 4. So if I was making multiple lineups id probably play him at around 75%.

    However, I agree he could still “dud” with a 45 and he may also be in the optimal lineup.

    Im only doing 1 lineup tonight on DK, as this slate is atrocious, and whether I go game theory and fade will depend on whether DSJ plays. If he’s out again, paying up for Luca and Barnes might make sense, as they’ll have some ceiling. If he plays, I just think you’re going to need whatever Harden gives you.

    On Yahoo, pricing is super soft, so I think regardless you have to play Harden there.

  • m203

    @Pandamonious said...

    Devin Harris and Mike Scott will be under 5% owned on a 2 game slate. How much different do you want to be? Let’s not go all NFL Showdown here and pick, which back up TE or random No. 4 WR will have 2 TD’s.

    Only so many guys in the rotation. Only so many things can happen. Just make good looking line ups. Overthinking things and going way outside the box is how you end up with zero return at the end of the night. Let other people make stupid mistakes. If someone only plays 15 minutes usually, and you want to create a scenario where they play 20-25, OK. Otherwise just play the best plays and hope you find the right combination.

    yeah. the best thing i’ve learned doing this is that i’m not going to outsmart everyone with out of the box plays. i would make completely contrarian lineups when i first started, and while it works sometimes, its just not good practice. still make a ton of mistakes obviously but now i really just try to fit as many good plays into a lineup as possible, regardless of what i think ownership might be.

    like yesterday, i bet a lot of people thought fading bamba and monroe was a good idea, but they were both sub 4.2k with a bunch of opportunity. it for sure could have worked fading them but they ended up both being in the winning lineup. sometimes you just have to play the chalk because its logical.

  • wafic

    @BBWC_10 said...

    Could it be DK stat corrected my team -6 pts last night. Went to bed at 348.75 Woke up to 342.75 and about $40 less?

    Yeah there was definitely a stat correction. I woke up 3.25 points less.

  • bigwillie20

    @miggs6876 said...

    I don’t think any of those guys differentiate you enough to take down a gpp. Think you will have to think more out of the box.

    100% fade Harden and bank on him mudbutting

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    I’m just going to complain about this slate some more! I did get my first go-around Yahoo lineup and it had to fade Harden. I do not like it but it looks way worse with him in there. I might be letting the “cap” make too many decisions for me as leaving money on the table might not be a bad thing today. I feel like everybody will be making lineups with $1 short as there were about 3 different variations I tired with the same result. Seems to be on purpose too…

  • Ace15

    First look, there are actually a lot of ways LU construction can go for a 2 game slate. Pretty interesting actually.

    On FD, I think you can absolutely fade harden at that price. The position you need to get right is C on FD tonight.

  • realphipps

    Playing one lineup in the QA for achievements. Worst slate ever. See you guys tomorrow.

  • kbsktbll88

    @Pandamonious said...

    The Plan:

    1. There’s roughly 36 players, barring blowouts who will see the floor tonight. I will look to remove 6 of those names, hopefully more. Haven’t even started looking, but I’m fairly certain there has to bee a few guys who have zero chance of being in the winning line up.

    2. Pick the 10 guys in the best spots to have very heavy exposure to. 50% or maybe more.

    3. Pick a second tier of 10 to have good exposure too. 25-40%.

    4. The remaining group will be sprinkled through.

    5. Build 150 line ups.

    6.

    You’re really doing 150 lineups on a 2 game slate?

  • deepfat

    With a 2 game slate trying to get too cute will probably sink your LU. Even if you are in the hunt to take down a GPP, you’re probably going to be sharing with a duplicate or multiple duplicate LUs. Like Panda said, make a solid lineup and be happy to cash out if you do. My personal approach to a 2 game slate is that I’m going to plug in usage rates into my solver, tell it to make a lineup with a max value on usage rates and have a few beers and hope my squad gets me a few bucks tonight.

  • hobbes2d

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    You’re really doing 150 lineups on a 2 game slate?

    He’s burning money, so obviously.

  • Epignosis

    • 456

      RG Overall Ranking

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    You’re really doing 150 lineups on a 2 game slate?

    I’ve done 210 on one before.

  • DaBum2012

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @kbsktbll88 said...

    You’re really doing 150 lineups on a 2 game slate?

    You’re right-150 is too much. I’d probably only do maybe 5 at best. Then again, you do have a lot of crazies that do and by the time you get done doing all that, the remaining 130 might have folks that play 2 minutes or less on it.

  • kbsktbll88

    @Epignosis said...

    I’ve done 210 on one before.

    210 on a showdown? Why so many, are there even that many combinations?

    edit: I misunderstood lol .. but still 210 on a 2 game slate? I didn’t think there were that many realistic combinations one could make with so few options.

  • dominicanpapi

    @Ace15 said...

    First look, there are actually a lot of ways LU construction can go for a 2 game slate. Pretty interesting actually.

    On FD, I think you can absolutely fade harden at that price. The position you need to get right is C on FD tonight.

    Jordan seems like the obvious play, narrative, game log from last meeting but if Whiteside got 30 minutes tonight….

  • gaelicgirl

    Stayed up ‘til 2 am wrapping gifts that arrived a day late (and 20 minutes before I had to leave for work) yesterday, that I will have to pay extra to mail today. Not only was my order late, but when I opened it after I got home I found it was missing one item. Then one of my bad dreams last night was that there were only two games today.

    Bah, humbug!

  • JSteele

    I think you don’t necessarily need to play Harden today there are lots of good plays in the middle tier that you can make a strong balanced lineup with punting too crazily.

    If your looking for lower owned plays, Bam Adebayo is interesting. Houston isn’t that great of a rebounding team and Miami is, he will get 25 minutes and doesn’t need a lot to put up big numbers as he has proven earlier in the season. I like Derrick Jones Jr as a punt he’s a good source of points and rebounds. I don’t think he will be that low owned because of his game yesterday but PJ Tucker gets a good matchup at 3700.

  • Jeddy3

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Jordan seems like the obvious play, narrative, game log from last meeting but if Whiteside got 30 minutes tonight….

  • JayAche

    Yeah on a 2 game slate especially the DK $5 – M150 I can’t bring myself to drop anymore than 3-4 lineups and hope I get lucky and cash (decently) with the ability for 100s of people able to tie on the #1 LU which such a small pool of players. Hard pass on that.

    I find it ironic that the GPPs for this 2 game slate are way better than what were available for the 12 last night…

    Guess that’s what happens when TNF goes away

  • tristanwolf

    @JSteele said...

    I think you don’t necessarily need to play Harden today there are lots of good plays in the middle tier that you can make a strong balanced lineup with punting too crazily.

    If your looking for lower owned plays, Bam Adebayo is interesting. Houston isn’t that great of a rebounding team and Miami is, he will get 25 minutes and doesn’t need a lot to put up big numbers as he has proven earlier in the season. I like Derrick Jones Jr as a punt he’s a good source of points and rebounds. I don’t think he will be that low owned because of his game yesterday but PJ Tucker gets a good matchup at 3700.

    was just doing my first gut lu and had one spot left exactly 4400 for a forward

  • deepfat

    The real question is if you decide to fade Harden and he only scores his floor, will you still be kicking yourself for not playing him? If you fade, you’re hoping for him to have an almost impossibly bad night, right?

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