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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    5:00 PM EST : Brooklyn ( 10.5 ) at Milwaukee ( -10.5 ) —- T: 222
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Calicapo

    Blame Pop for his resting overworked starters revolution.
    Him and analytics.

    That’s the real culprit behind all the value.

  • Smallchimp

    @Spartaca said...

    Excellent post, thanks for taking the time.

    I just feel like too many people look at DFS from a “smart” player viewpoint. Look at it this way:

    Currently, the typical DFS bar is set at some content digestion with some casual sport watching. The average DFS player knows the chalk plays, household athlete names, and their favorite team’s player. They might follow a couple big name touts on social media and listen to a podcast or video thinking it’s the edge that’ll bump them into contention on a given week. They might be a part of a DFS community, but more likely it’s someone who asks a player v. player question or “what’s the play.” They have some exposure to discussion and someone like you or I saying a player’s name might put a name in their head when they make a lineup.

    How much value does the typical player put in that much effort? What’s their expected return? Well, they probably hope that they’re at that 101% effort to where they’re doing more and have a better shot than the average guy. But are they better off? Probably not. I can watch any tout’s stream or podcast, read any tout’s tweets or articles, or check this (or many like it’s) forum and see the same names. In NFL, yeah, I know Gurley out this week means CJA is a better play. Did I need to listen to a podcast, read an article, check this forum, and scan twitter to get that idea? Nope, I also didn’t need that effort to know that Nick Foles is a decent cheap play as opposed to Teddy Bridgewater who seems chalky. In NBA, I know Harden is a freebie and Wall being out means Washington value is the play of the night. But what does that mean? It means that I could’ve stopped at any of those sources and walked out knowing as much as someone who picked a given source to look into. What about “sneakier” chalk that lands on everyone’s “sneaky play of the day” section? You’ll see that if you stop at the first source you like. Plays that require more than an “if, then” statement (like usage shifts you can investigate on NBA WOWY or CourtIQ) are rarer, but still out there. The tout peddling those presents himself as more of an insider because he doesn’t have a stake in the tout-circles’ opinion of him and their adherence to “don’t give away everything” so he’s willing to trade process-sourced data for followings/$. What I’m getting at is that data is free and plentiful. People aren’t asking for fishing lessons, they’re asking for fish. They don’t always get prime fish, but it’s a start. Take the good parts and put them together. Anyone can cash if their tout gives the right “must plays” that day. Why find 3k value when the 3k chalk is an obvious good play?

    As the game gets harder with a higher skill curve, people either need to advance or be preyed on until they move on. How much does our average player want to put into his process every day? He probably has a job, a family, and obligations that make increased investment less lucrative or even impossible. Does he expect making DFS into an alternative to any of those? Probably not. He doesn’t want to have to learn to fish, he’s going to leave the market if it means he has to get his hands dirty and potentially still be empty-handed. If you tell the average guy to do more than consume minimal content, he’s going to move on. If you don’t give positive incentives, he’s going to move on. He doesn’t want to bust ass to make 80 cents per dollar, if he even hits cash. He wants it to be worth it. Big, life-changing jackpots. A $4000 hit is big, but flat payouts are boring and unsexy. People go to the casino for things like this.

    Either you have to address the effort requirement or address the payout. Someone will continue trying if they think it’ll pay off. If they have to put $100 on the line to make $80 in profit in cash, they’d rather roll roulette.

  • DirkDigglerz

    @Calicapo said...

    Blame Pop for his resting overworked starters revolution.
    Him and analytics.

    That’s the real culprit behind all the value.

    Blame Tanking

  • Smallchimp

    Pricing is the biggest issue-to-solution thing right now, meaning that it’s the most solvable big issue. If Washington/LAL starters were priced at 5k+, you’d be seeing 6x value and lower stack rates. Obviously scratches can’t be helped, but an entire day sitting staring at a guy with an O next to his name nearly twice/three times more expensive than his replacements, it’s just dumb. Stop setting prices so far in advance, having night slates open in the morning of the contest is advance notice enough. It seems like the algorithm needs an overhaul.

    Idk where I stand on entry limits, I feel as if the bigger issue should be the barriers to entry, I.e., someone like PapaGates shouldn’t be poaching small dollar cash contests so he can shore $500 worth of his other entries, at least playing against him and the ilk should be an opt-in instead of a landmine you step on because you’re tying to play something that should be winnable if you put in some effort. If PapaGates and the big baller brigade flood a $5, 100 entry double up and they’re 5% better than you, you’re out of the running by a mile. 1. Cash contests should be minimal entries because people just do trains and single bullet lineups anyways, so it’s basically choosing your ante for essentially one 2. Cash contests should be restricted by some sort of volume based status. If you play less than $100 a month, you shouldn’t have to avoid cash unless you have a casual league you’re a part of because of these dudes who can afford to do cash lineups for a living and bankroll support for GPP mass entries.

    The issue with adaptation is that the “best players” aren’t the average players and the people willing to change their approach aren’t in the majority. If DFS is hard because of the skill curve, average players will phase out because a game of complete chance is more lucrative. At the core, DFS is thinking you know more about the topic than the average person and you can monetize that knowledge and ability. If you know you aren’t good enough at it, you wont bother with it. As DFS gets harder, you’ll see less people play and contests will shrink as the sharks wait for fish to cover the rake.

    As was said before, given the fact that DFS is a information game, seeing your information edge decrease as some schlub desperately touts someone you’ve identified as the value of the night makes it not worth it to bust ass to get past the public knowledge. You knew a value guy was a good play. Now thanks to the guys covering their expenses as DFS content creators, everyone knows it and the value play is no longer an edge, it’s just a cash line mover. Either you play Jeff Green and collect your free space 11x value or you try to skip the chalk with Jeremy Lin (or any other similarly priced player, idk if Lin was even worth considering before the fact) and you missed out on about 20 fantasy points that you’re behind the crowd and that much more behind the cash line. So you do your research, decide if it’s good or bad chalk, then move on to check the rest of the stuff and see if you have an edge on the field still (probably not). It’s just the fact that you can get 75% of the way just looking at the LineupHQ. How do you optimize the information edge to get closer? End up at $2 net profit on a $1 entry while your other lineups burn the marginal profit? Probably. It’s just rough that the information edge is as steep as it is, you have dig that much deeper for less relative information. If you have to hunt for 8 players as opposed to the 3 or 4 pickems after the chalk is plugged in, knowing a few good value guys gets you further. Now, you’re hoping your stud decides to take shots that night and not get RNGed out of the game somehow.

    I’m not saying you can’t outsmart NBA DFS, but I am saying that half the work is already done for you and your edge is reduced massively. People don’t play DFS to constantly lose.

  • SkateFiend

    Offensive production seems to be up in the NBA – way up. I was looking at Yahoo contests from 2015 and at that time 260 was enough to min cash, or even triple the entry fee.

    No one plays any sort of defense in the NBA. So much of the offense is focused on launching a bunch of threes and taking the ball straight to the hoop. But no one does a thing about it. I watched the LAC LAL game and most of the game involved players like Lou Williams and Kyle Kuzma snaking around players to eventually get close enough to rim to lay in the ball or pass it to an open big man who would flush it down. “Ohh what a pass!”

    If LBJ never came to LA I’m convinced Ingram would be a 20 ppg player. And that guy is 190 pounds and built like the manic mailman. Why does the league let young players like Booker and Fox score on them at will?

  • depalma13

    Live ownership percentages wiould go a long way to leveling the playing field.

  • Landa501

    .

  • Njsum1

    @Spartaca said...

    This was hysterical in the $5 double up on DK this is why NBA DFS is a fucking joke. Train after train.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/67134756?uc=1348218313

    Don’t play multi entry double ups. There were 3400 spots in the tourney, with a 103 entry max. You run the risk of only playing against like 40 people. Likely 40 of the best players in the world. I don’t understand the complaints asking, why do the “sharks” need to play for $5? (I know that isn’t your complaint, yet I saw it afterwords).

    They’re not playing for $5. They’re playing for $500, which is real money to even the highest volume players. Advice…play larger field, 200 entrants or more, single entry double ups, and 50/50’s…won’t see any trains. Or find other limited entry contests.

  • mbunner23

    @Landa501 said...

    You dont have to look at PapaGates as the only problem, you can look at guys like RG’s own “Mangoon” who had the exact same lineup in cash as about 50-65% of other players and scores a 349.25. Absolutely disgusting sickening behavior. A huge slate and everyone is sharing lineups with the exact same 8 guys?! Derrick Favors in cash now? Pretty amazing also considering NOBODY pivoted to Ingles at 5300. If you look at the scores in cash every contests has all the same scores, 349.25, to the extent that a 317 cashed in big tournaments where the top 14% pay out, but it finished dead last in many cash contests because these parasites cant come up with their own projections and do their own optimization.

    I had that exact lineup and I don’t share lineups with anybody. There was extreme chalk last night and all of those guys fit to exactly $50,000 salary.

  • rausch180

    @Landa501 said...

    You dont have to look at PapaGates as the only problem, you can look at guys like RG’s own “Mangoon” who had the exact same lineup in cash as about 50-65% of other players and scores a 349.25. Absolutely disgusting sickening behavior. A huge slate and everyone is sharing lineups with the exact same 8 guys?! Derrick Favors in cash now? Pretty amazing also considering NOBODY pivoted to Ingles at 5300. If you look at the scores in cash every contests has all the same scores, 349.25, to the extent that a 317 cashed in big tournaments where the top 14% pay out, but it finished dead last in many cash contests because these parasites cant come up with their own projections and do their own optimization.

    The most obvious cash team of the season. The only disgusting thing was using it in gpp as well. Was so obviously going to be massively owned that it was a waste of time entering with it.

  • RandysCrow

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @mbunner23 said...

    I had that exact lineup and I don’t share lineups with anybody.

    Well thanks a lot! Hahaha

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