NBA FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    3:30 PM EST : Chicago ( 7 ) at Washington ( -7 ) —- T: 213.5
    5:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Indiana ( 3.5 ) —- T: 212
    5:30 PM EST : Brooklyn ( 10 ) at Boston ( -10 ) —- T: 210
    7:00 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 15 ) at Houston ( -15 ) —- T: 226
    7:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 0 ) at Oklahoma City ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:00 PM EST : Memphis ( 3 ) at Sacramento ( -3 ) —- T: 194
    7:00 PM EST : Charlotte ( 2.5 ) at LA Clippers ( -2.5 ) —- T: 214.5
    8:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -2.5 ) at Phoenix ( 2.5 ) —- T: 221

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Njsum1

    @superjon said...

    I’m not concerned about the usage bump. What puts me off RWB today is the pace of the game. It favors Adams more than him. If you look at the 5 slowest paced teams in the league. DAL, DET, MEM, SAC, SAS. RWB has played 7 games collectively against all of them this season.

    He only hit value once, and it was a mere 5x his FD price. Like I said, I don’t see the upside today.

    PG actually missed one of those games, and in the others he played in, only did well in one of them. The rest, he was essentially a non-factor.

    Finally, while it may come across that way, I am certainly not trying to talk anyone off any particular player. I’ll personally make a stand on certain players in terms of playing or fading, and do my best to provide logic and data to back up my stance.

    Thanks

    I’m referring to DK pricing (11.7k), and Paul George played in both of those game versus Dallas so I don’t know where you saw that he missed a game. Westbrook averaged 54 DK points in those games with Paul George playing over 40 in each.

    George is listed as doubtful, if for some reason he plays you can fade Westbrook, yet if he misses, I don’t see why I’d fade Westbrook.

  • superstars92

    Walton’s coaching is a bit confusing, but I guess the starting lineup today will (probably) be Clarkson, Hart, Ingram, Kuzma, and Randle. I mean Clarkson didn’t start last game, but he played starter’s mins, so that was pointless. Even if he doesn’t start today (which I don’t think will happen), without KCP, he’ll play starter’s mins probably so I might as well treat him as the starter. I have no idea if Randle will start. Remember Lakers beat Rockets with Randle doing nothing last time…but Randle started last game and Walton seems to listen to his players’ complaints a lot…so he might stick with Randle.

    I have no idea though. Wouldn’t surprise me if Bogut started. Who knows what he’s doing. Clarkson is also a terrible team basketball player, but he’s a fantasy monster. Someone needs to tell him it’s ok not to have 100% usage when he’s on the floor.

  • superjon

    @RandysCrow said...

    How did that MEM-GS game work out for you last night? It killed me!

    I like your posts and insight….just talking the other side for the sake of conversation!

    Im not playing and Simmons-Griffin-Gasol-Dwight today so those will be your 80 point scorers tonight lol

    And yes, friendly debate is great!

    Logically it makes sense that one of Harden or RWB will have a big game, and that’s who most will gravitate towards. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to make some contrarian line ups with Embiid (if he plays) and then just completely balanced.

  • superstars92

    Randle is so tricky because he’s only 5.1k on DK, meaning if he starts and plays 30 mins, he’s arguably the top play on the board….but if he doesn’t start and plays 10-15 mins, he’ll be a major bust in what is likely to be a chalky situation for him.

    And Walton usually announces the lineup right before the game, so we won’t even know. Lakers are a mess without Ball…who would’ve said that earlier.

  • superstars92

    @Njsum1 said...

    I’m referring to DK pricing (11.7k), and Paul George played in both of those game versus Dallas so I don’t know where you saw that he missed a game. Westbrook averaged 54 DK points in those games with Paul George playing over 40 in each.

    George is listed as doubtful, if for some reason he plays you can fade Westbrook, yet if he misses, I don’t see why I’d fade Westbrook.

    I mean Westbrook needs about 60 FPs for a solid value game (5.5x). It’s not inconceivable he doesn’t reach that, but yes, he will be one of the most popular players today.

    However, let’s not say you must choose chalk. Do you remember when Randle was chalk vs. Houston a week ago? I didn’t play two days ago, but I imagine both Adams and Melo were chalk vs. the Bucks. How did that work out? So saying you have to take chalk is an incorrect statement. Yes, Westbrook is in a good spot, but he’s not a 100% choice.

  • superjon

    @Njsum1 said...

    I’m referring to DK pricing (11.7k), and Paul George played in both of those game versus Dallas so I don’t know where you saw that he missed a game. Westbrook averaged 54 DK points in those games with Paul George playing over 40 in each.

    George is listed as doubtful, if for some reason he plays you can fade Westbrook, yet if he misses, I don’t see why I’d fade Westbrook.

    Sorry I wasn’t referring to the games vs Dal that PG missed. Rather it was one of the 7 that RWB played against the other slowest paced teams this season.

    I think it might have been against Memphis, but don’t know for sure since I closed that tab.

    Usage is important, but it’s not the be-all-end-all.

    IMO

    1. Pace
    2. Usage
    3. Consistency in relation to salary
    4. DVP

    Harden is ahead in all categories today except usage.

  • superstars92

    @bhodgman said...

    4) Surprising, but don’t really like Embiid here. (Then again, I’m the guy that recommended fading Boogie all yesterday). Also of note, Covington has done poorly in b2bs this year (avg 20.08 dk points), but a sample size of just 3.

    Don’t worry Boogie still sucks. Another huge FP game, and oh yea that’s right, his team lost at home.

    This guy must be the worst teammate in NBA history. Maybe he should start having 40 FP games, focus on his defense, and his team would win more games, despite having a boatload of talent.

  • RandysCrow

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @superjon said...

    Fading it was still the right play from a DFS perspective.

    I did fade the game completely. The only player that I was remotely interested in was Dray and Bell and glad I didnt go with them. Dray booted and for some reason coach wanted to give ZaZa extra run. If ZaZa did that with those minutes could you imagine what Bell would have done with the same time, especially with Green out and the games pace!!!

  • IronMonkey415

    How is our friend Andrew Wiggins doing this morning?

    GOOD TO GO?

  • DfsBopBooth

    @superjon said...

    I’m not concerned about the usage bump. What puts me off RWB today is the pace of the game. It favors Adams more than him. If you look at the 5 slowest paced teams in the league. DAL, DET, MEM, SAC, SAS. RWB has played 7 games collectively against all of them this season.

    He only hit value once, and it was a mere 5x his FD price. Like I said, I don’t see the upside today.

    PG actually missed one of those games, and in the others he played in, only did well in one of them. The rest, he was essentially a non-factor.

    Finally, while it may come across that way, I am certainly not trying to talk anyone off any particular player. I’ll personally make a stand on certain players in terms of playing or fading, and do my best to provide logic and data to back up my stance.

    Thanks

    Look at the Mavs Pels game 2 days ago. Total was like what 240? I don’t care if Mavs are a “slow” team RWB will for sure speed up the game and DSJ will follow

  • Njsum1

    @superstars92 said...

    I mean Westbrook needs about 60 FPs for a solid value game (5.5x). It’s not inconceivable he doesn’t reach that, but yes, he will be one of the most popular players today.

    However, let’s not say you must choose chalk. Do you remember when Randle was chalk vs. Houston a week ago? I didn’t play two days ago, but I imagine both Adams and Melo were chalk vs. the Bucks. How did that work out? So saying you have to take chalk is an incorrect statement. Yes, Westbrook is in a good spot, but he’s not a 100% choice.

    Who said you must choose chalk? I said chalk is chalk for a reason, because more often that not (never said always) it comes through. I haven’t played Randle all season, and had very limited exposure to Adams and Melo against the bucks. I even remember @superjon saying centers versus the bucks weren’t really a thing, and I posted that I agreed with him. Again did I say, someone should play 100% Westbrook, I actually said I can see the logic in pivoting to Harden in a few if you make multiple lineups.

    Don’t pretend you don’t know the difference between playing Julius Randle who we all know has insecure minutes, or Carmelo who’s been terrible, or even Adams against the bucks who really haven’t been giving it up to centers, and playing Westbrook on a 5 game slate without PG13, at home as a slight favorite.

  • superstars92

    @superjon said...

    Sorry I wasn’t referring to the games vs Dal that PG missed. Rather it was one of the 7 that RWB played against the other slowest paced teams this season.

    I think it might have been against Memphis, but don’t know for sure since I closed that tab.

    Usage is important, but it’s not the be-all-end-all.

    IMO

    1. Pace
    2. Usage
    3. Consistency in relation to salary
    4. DVP

    Harden is ahead in all categories today except usage.

    The problem with usage is it’s self generated. For example, if Ben Simmons doesn’t want to shoot, he can lower his usage himself. Since Jordan Clarkson can’t seem to not want to shoot/handle the ball, he can increase his usage himself. So a lot is related to your own basketball IQ. I’m sure if Ben Simmons wanted to take 10 more shots a game, he could have forced himself to go to the rim every possession (and not pass to his teammates), get stopped, and then take a hard shot. Maybe make 3/10 of those, but hey that’s 6 more FPs. But it’s bad for his team if he does that. Meanwhile, Clarkson has no basketball IQ, so he will actually take all 10 of those extra shots and make like 3/10 of those, get your 6 more FPs, and he looks like he’s a great fantasy player.

    We all know which category RWB falls under.

  • superjon

    @Njsum1 said...

    Who said you must choose chalk? I said chalk is chalk for a reason, because more often that not (never said always) it comes through. I haven’t played Randle all season, and had very limited exposure to Adams and Melo against the bucks. I even remember @superjon saying centers versus the bucks weren’t really a thing, and I posted that I agreed with him. Again did I say, someone should play 100% Westbrook, I actually said I can see the logic in pivoting to Harden in a few if you make multiple lineups.

    Don’t pretend you don’t know the difference between playing Julius Randle who we all know has insecure minutes, or Carmelo who’s been terrible, or even Adams against the bucks who really haven’t been giving it up to centers, and playing Westbrook on a 5 game slate without PG13, at home as a slight favorite.

    I agree it makes sense to play chalk because it can come through.

    But from a GPP standpoint, it makes just as much sense to fade chalk. Game theory, leverage, and all that fun stuff.

  • dgballer

    If Rivers can’t go, how much time will Evans get?

  • sholden

    @RandysCrow said...

    CP played 25 minutes his first game back and this isn’t a B2B so I think he has 30 with no problem. Harden I think takes a little step back to get himself right again, I think the Boston (Smart) game is still messing with his head a little. Not that I think Harden is going to do bad, but I dont think he reaches his 5x value today.

    Instead of Harden I am rolling with Booker. Same high paced game. His shooting volume and minutes are there and I think he rebounds from a poor shooting night last time out. Plus him and Warren are the only scorers on the team so he is going to get his. With Warren (assuming he is being guarded by Simmons) even more of the scoring load should fall onto Booker. I am betting 50 FD points but hoping for 65! IMO Booker and Harden could cancel each other out today point wise (but at a significant savings)!

    Im going with Westy. Down Paul George and can’t rely on Melo to keep them in the game so if they want to compete I think he needs to go off again and the Dallas PGs arent anywhere close to his league..

    I don’t think they are going to rush Paul back. RG has him projected for 25 minutes. Harden is such a lock against the Lakers (with no KCP) at 11K on FD. Easiest play of the day.

    Don’t forget that the 76ers also have RoCo, who is an elite defender. He should be able to slow down Booker to some degree.

  • superstars92

    @Njsum1 said...

    Don’t pretend you don’t know the difference between playing Julius Randle who we all know has insecure minutes, or Carmelo who’s been terrible, or even Adams against the bucks who really haven’t been giving it up to centers, and playing Westbrook on a 5 game slate without PG13, at home as a slight favorite.

    Why are you coming at me which such passive aggressiveness? I never even said RWB is a bad play. In fact, he’s a good play today, but my point is, you don’t have to go all-in from a game theory standpoint. All my posts actually support the fact why RWB will be highly owned and why he’ll have a good increase in usage, especially because he forces his own usage (even steals his teammates’ rebounds – all good attributes for fantasy).

    Second of all, your post is a bit confusing. You are saying you knew Randle, Carmelo, and Adams were all bad picks the day they were chalk. Did you know this beforehand? Or are you saying this after the fact? If you knew beforehand, then you clearly are a great DFS player, and that’s what separates you from others. However, my point is most didn’t know. Take a look.

    https://www.fantasylabs.com/nba/contest-ownership/?date=12292017

    Carmelo was 35% owned in the 36 and 365 dollar tourneys the other night and 25% in the 8 dollar.
    Adams was 30% owned in the 8 and 36 dollar tourneys the other night and 34% in the 365 (and even 43% owned in the 1060).
    Randle had similar ownership the first game vs. Houston.

    So what you are saying is “it was obvious these are bad plays”, but my point is “it was not obvious to like 30-40% of people” because 30-40% had AT LEAST one of the players, and many probably had more than 1 of them. I bet a lot of people here on this forum alone had both Carmelo and Adams.

    So that’s my point. Maybe you are so good you knew to avoid them, but obviously, a lot of people still chose chalk and failed.

    So yes, to your point, there is a difference between RWB and Adams in terms of their playing style, but from an overall perspective, in terms of ownership %, no there really isn’t a difference. Almost as many people thought Adams was as good of a play as RWB. I bet a lot of people on here had BOTH RWB and Adams, just like RWB and Carmelo, or Carmelo and Adams.

  • superstars92

    @dgballer said...

    If Rivers can’t go, how much time will Evans get?

    Blake is back just FYI before you starting thinking about Evans.

  • Njsum1

    @superstars92 said...

    Why are you coming at me which such passive aggressiveness? I never even said RWB is a bad play. In fact, he’s a good play today, but my point is, you don’t have to go all-in from a game theory standpoint. All my posts actually support the fact why RWB will be highly owned and why he’ll have a good increase in usage, especially because he forces his own usage (even steals his teammates’ rebounds – all good attributes for fantasy).

    Second of all, your post doesn’t make sense. You are saying you knew Randle, Carmelo, and Adams were all bad picks the day they were chalk. Did you know this beforehand? Or are you saying this after the fact? If you knew beforehand, then you clearly are a great DFS player, and that’s what separates you from others. However, my point is most didn’t know. Take a look.

    https://www.fantasylabs.com/nba/contest-ownership/?date=12292017

    Carmelo was 35% owned in the 36 and 365 dollar tourneys the other night and 25% in the 8 dollar.
    Adams was 30% owned in the 8 and 36 dollar tourneys the other night and 34% in the 365 (and even 43% owned in the 1060).
    Randle had similar ownership the first game vs. Houston.

    So what you are saying is “it was obvious these are bad plays”, but my point is “it was not obvious to like 30-40% of people” because 30-40% had AT LEAST one of the players, and many probably had more than 1 of them. I bet a lot of people here on this forum alone had both Carmelo and Adams.

    So that’s my point. Maybe you are so good you knew to avoid them, but obviously, a lot of people still chose chalk and failed.

    I wrote what I wrote because you misquoted me and then chose the few times, chalk and weak chalk at best, didn’t come through to make your argument. How about last night, when Napier, Saric, Fournier and every piece of chalk destroyed it. Or ish smith and Tyus jones two games ago.

    Now you go into this whole sarcastic monologue about how I must be smarter than everyone else. No not all, I fall for bad plays all the time…yet A priced up Adams was mentioned as bad chalk, and I agreed in this forum, you can check. Randle is never a great play IMO, cause you don’t know about his minutes, so I don’t know why he’d ever be chalk unless he’s the confirmed starter before lock, and Melo has been bad. I had some Melo as there was reason for optimism with pg13 out, yet I was only slightly below the field. To sum it up, here’s why I was “passive aggressive” which I wasn’t, as I flat out said what I meant. 1) you misquoted me 2) you used the weakest examples of chalk busting to make your argument. For someone, like yourself, who is a solid contributor on this forum, I would have expected better, that is all.

  • upgradetoquestionable

    No Roberson, no PG the Thunder D takes two big hits. Who’s the plays on the Mavs?

  • superjon

    Now I really hope Embiid plays. Just made an Embiid, Blake, Kemba, Booker LU that I love.

  • underdawgs

    @superjon said...

    After some more research I am currently completely off RWB. I think his ceiling is just around or a little under 5x. Like Cousins last night, I don’t want to pay that much for a guy that I don’t believe has any real upside. The only guy I’m willing to play from OKC today is Adams.

    PG looks like Paul, Kemba, DSJ and Barrea
    SG is Harden (70%), Booker, Batum and Hart

    I’ve switched to 100% on Blake and MKG.

    My goodness we’re on the exact same page. Sorry in advance

  • superjon

    @upgradetoquestionable said...

    No Roberson, no PG the Thunder D takes two big hits. Who’s the plays on the Mavs?

    In order from best to worst

    DSJ
    Barnes
    Dirk
    Barrea
    Matthews

  • superstars92

    @Njsum1 said...

    I wrote what I wrote because you misquoted me and then chose the few times, chalk and weak chalk at best, didn’t come through to make your argument. How about last night, when Napier, Saric, Fournier and every piece of chalk destroyed it. Or ish smith and Tyus jones two games ago.

    Now you go into this whole sarcastic monologue about how I must be smarter than everyone else. No not all, I fall for bad plays all the time…yet A priced up Adams was mentioned as bad chalk, and I agreed in this forum, you can check. Randle is never a great play IMO, cause you don’t know about his minutes, so I don’t know why he’d ever be chalk unless he’s the confirmed starter before lock, and Melo has been bad. I had some Melo as there was reason for optimism with pg13 out, yet I was only slightly below the field. To sum it up, here’s why I was “passive aggressive” which I wasn’t, as I flat out said what I meant. 1) you misquoted me 2) you used the weakest examples of chalk busting to make your argument. For someone, like yourself, who is a solid contributor on this forum, I would have expected better, that is all.

    Ok gotta make my NFL lineups now (I’m actually not sure I’ll even play NBA depends on my schedule), and actually not trying to argue with you haha. Sorry if it came off that way. But my point about chalk is summarized in my last sentence of my initial post.

    “Yes, Westbrook is in a good spot, but he’s not a 100% choice.”

    Now, do you understand why I posted the examples I did? I never said chalk was bad. I simply said you don’t have to go 100% Westbrook, and I gave some examples of chalk busting to demonstrate why it isn’t wise to go 100%.

  • superstars92

    Here’s a controversial, but I think truthful take. A current 20 year old Dennis Smith Jr. is better than what Russell Westbrook was as a 20 year old (sophomore at UCLA). Now, will DSJ become Westbrook? Probably not. That’s hard to do. But given he’s almost built the same way, plays the same style, and is just as athletic, and he’s better at age 20, the potential is there. I think DSJ knows this Westbrook comparison too. We’ll see how he does tonight coming off his triple double.

  • Njsum1

    @superstars92 said...

    Ok gotta make my NFL lineups now (I’m actually not sure I’ll even play NBA depends on my schedule), and actually not trying to argue with you haha. Sorry if it came off that way. But my point about chalk is summarized in my last sentence of my initial post.

    “Yes, Westbrook is in a good spot, but he’s not a 100% choice.”

    Now, do you understand why I posted the examples I did? I never said chalk was bad. I simply said you don’t have to go 100% Westbrook, and I gave some examples of chalk busting to demonstrate why it isn’t wise to go 100%.

    No worries, all good man. And I agree while Westbrook is a very strong play, putting a 12k player in 100% of your lineups certainly has its pitfalls. Good luck today.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).