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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    7:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -7 ) at Washington ( 7 ) —- T: 234
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Bnett2210

    thoughts on Jrue/Siakam?? Just tinkering around early this morning but I have a lineup with Jrue/Beal/Siakam/Simmons that I don’t hate with Ennis being the only real cheap play.

  • Devmacsoom

    IT time vs Philly, I’m expecting low ownership and lots of assists and fouls with IT vs philly

  • got9forya

    Do we need to lock in Ingram? 9.5K on FD or drop to Siakam for 9.0K is my real question.

  • superjon

    @Ace15 said...

    I hope others are thinking like this as well. Capela is a lock for me. I’m not getting off quite yet. He’s had some nice games against Gasol lately. Double/Double lock.

    Capelas best game vs Gasol is 42. He’s normally in the 30s

  • ripking

    Who in your opinion is the highest upside player on DK 3800 or less? Right now I got Ennis.

  • dominicanpapi

    @got9forya said...

    Do we need to lock in Ingram? 9.5K on FD or drop to Siakam for 9.0K is my real question.

    This may burn me, but neither. I like Kelly Oubre at small forward. Regarding Ingram and Siakam, you can find cheaper pivots, Holiday at SG, Lowry/FVV/Ibaka/Powell. Siakam is priced as if Lowry is still out and granted Siakam could still crush, but 9K is a lot even though the matchup is great.

    The popular build tonight will be one of Siakam/Ingram and a cheapie like Thybulle or Ennis.

  • tmarohl

    @superjon said...

    Jokic at 8.9k on FD…finally playable? Great history vs the Knicks and will be much lower owned than Embid who is priced at his ceiling.

    Lonzo has played 33 and 30 in his last 2 games. 5.8k is a little too cheap I think going against Rubio. Run him with Booker and Oubre and that’s a nice little gamestack.

    I might put him in one, but I don’t agree the price is playable. Great history doesn’t matter. What does matter is these Knick’s are just a terrible basketball team and the Joker is in terrible form, and he is not looking for his shot. If there ever was a game where he could get right, this may be it, but he won’t make more than 1 of my lineups. This seems more like a Plumlee game than a Joker game.
    I will remind everyone that this is a pace up game, and the Joker is the first one to the bench in a blowout situation.

  • tmarohl

    @Jeddy3 said...

    Really hope Frank plays today so I don’t feel the need to play DSJ.

    The Elf on the Shelf might get a little run today.

  • tmarohl

    I really like Favors if he is back tonight on DK.

  • yisman

    With all the talk about optimizers, I was thinking there’s no way to beat the rake on DK unless you can beat the popular optimizers.

    In GPPs, sure, you can fade the chalk.

    In cash games, you need to win let’s say 55%.

    If there’s a reliable projection site/optimizer, people find it, and the rest is cash games have the optimal lineup for like 30%-40% of the entries.

    Maybe you have the optimizer too. So you could enter the optimal, which is probably -EV long term because even when you cash, you’ll tie for a cashing position and often not get the full prize, or use a sub-optimal lineup, which would lose to the optimal over 50% of the time and thus not cash those times.

    Rake in cash games are lower than GPPs but it’s still too high to overcome due to the shared lineups.

    I’ve noticed moklovin uses the RG optimal in about every NBA contest. He doesn’t care if he splits the prize. Last night he did it in a $150 satellite and split the 1500 ticket with another RG member.

  • BBWC_10

    @superjon said...

    9.4k for Capela against Gasol is anything but a must play

    I’ve been on Capela throughout most of this 20/20 streak but I would assume Tor is one of the better rebounding teams(haven’t researched yet). If he doesn’t get 15 rebounds tonight he may not come close to value. The other thing shying me away is Harden usually takes over vs good teams. Not trying to talk u off him but just my opinion. I think DK May have dropped FVv price too much with the return of Lowry. I’m thinking about him as a lower owned guy in that game.

  • smokeyca14

    My optos are Poppin!

  • dw12290

    @JSteele said...

    Ben Mclemore took a nasty hit to the eye last game and it was Austin Rivers who played 40 minutes and took that 3 & D roll.

    From FD players summary. House is unlikely to miss any length of time and McLemore appears to be fine, meaning Rivers could struggle to play meaningful minutes, even as soon as Thursday against the Raptors.

  • dominicanpapi

    @BBWC_10 said...

    I’ve been on Capela throughout most of this 20/20 streak but I would assume Tor is one of the better rebounding teams(haven’t researched yet). If he doesn’t get 15 rebounds tonight he may not come close to value. The other thing shying me away is Harden usually takes over vs good teams. Not trying to talk u off him but just my opinion. I think DK May have dropped FVv price too much with the return of Lowry. I’m thinking about him as a lower owned guy in that game.

    Toronto has a -2.6 rebounding differential which is 7th worse in the league. But Ibaka has been out for awhile so I’m sure that will improve.

  • chrisbanas

    Philly is going to destroy washington idk how the spread is only 7.5. Washington is potentially missing their starting C and backup C. Sounds like a great plan against embiid, horford, harris, simmons. Keep in mind that ish or IT might potentially guard 6’10 ben simmons

  • dominicanpapi

    @chrisbanas said...

    Philly is going to destroy washington idk how the spread is only 7.5. Washington is potentially missing their starting C and backup C. Sounds like a great plan against embiid, horford, harris, simmons. Keep in mind that ish or IT might potentially guard 6’10 ben simmons

    They will probably hide IT or Ish on Korkmaz. Beal will probably guard Ben.

  • frugal

    On Yahoo, looks like stacking Gasol and Ibaka might be a solid play. At a total of $29, the last 2 games the duo has combined for 52.8 and 47.4 with HOU giving up 49.72 on avg vs C.

  • chrisbanas

    @dominicanpapi said...

    They will probably hide IT or Ish on Korkmaz. Beal will probably guard Ben.

    Ah true. Is beal a stellar defender or just average?

  • frugal

    @chrisbanas said...

    Ah true. Is beal a stellar defender or just average?

    Beal and defense don’t belong in the same sentence.

  • Herf

    So many blowout options and possibilities today. Tons of value plays out there.. I haven’t liked a few of the lineups that the opto has kicked out but they started to make more sense after a little research..

    Who is going to step up in Washington for the C position? Davis Bertans could have a nice night with lots of minutes available, Rui Hachimura has alot of upside as well for a decent price. It all depends on if Wagner returns to the lineup as well.

    I do have a few low key players up my sleeve.

    Very interesting slate today.

  • dominicanpapi

    @frugal said...

    Beal and defense don’t belong in the same sentence.

    I’m a Wiz fan, this whole team is garbage defensively. I was at their last home game and this team has no inside presence whatsoever without Bryant there. It felt like a layup line at times. Even if Wagner comes back, people will say he’s good value and he is, but he’s so foul prone that it wouldn’t shock me if he had 3-4 fouls by halftime. I think Ben’s going to eat, Embiid too, Harris i’m not too sure about but all the Philly guys are in great spots.

  • Njsum1

    @yisman said...

    With all the talk about optimizers, I was thinking there’s no way to beat the rake on DK unless you can beat the popular optimizers.

    In GPPs, sure, you can fade the chalk.

    In cash games, you need to win let’s say 55%.

    If there’s a reliable projection site/optimizer, people find it, and the rest is cash games have the optimal lineup for like 30%-40% of the entries.

    Maybe you have the optimizer too. So you could enter the optimal, which is probably -EV long term because even when you cash, you’ll tie for a cashing position and often not get the full prize, or use a sub-optimal lineup, which would lose to the optimal over 50% of the time and thus not cash those times.

    Rake in cash games are lower than GPPs but it’s still too high to overcome due to the shared lineups.

    I’ve noticed moklovin uses the RG optimal in about every NBA contest. He doesn’t care if he splits the prize. Last night he did it in a $150 satellite and split the 1500 ticket with another RG member.

    The more predictable the sport, the less EV it is to play cash games for players who make their own lineups….it’s that simple. EOS

  • tmarohl

    @dominicanpapi said...

    I’m a Wiz fan, this whole team is garbage defensively. I was at their last home game and this team has no inside presence whatsoever without Bryant there. It felt like a layup line at times. Even if Wagner comes back, people will say he’s good value and he is, but he’s so foul prone that it wouldn’t shock me if he had 3-4 fouls by halftime. I think Ben’s going to eat, Embiid too, Harris i’m not too sure about but all the Philly guys are in great spots.

    Mahimimi might be back in limited fashion tonight.

  • tmarohl

    @Njsum1 said...

    The more predictable the sport, the less EV it is to play cash games for players who make their own lineups….it’s that simple. EOS

    Don’t play cash games.

  • frugal

    @dominicanpapi said...

    I’m a Wiz fan, this whole team is garbage defensively. I was at their last home game and this team has no inside presence whatsoever without Bryant there. It felt like a layup line at times. Even if Wagner comes back, people will say he’s good value and he is, but he’s so foul prone that it wouldn’t shock me if he had 3-4 fouls by halftime. I think Ben’s going to eat, Embiid too, Harris i’m not too sure about but all the Philly guys are in great spots.

    Yeah, Philly starters are absolutely in great spots and Philly has let some bad teams keep games close so perhaps this doesn’t blow out.

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