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  • bhdevault

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  • Epignosis

    • 590

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #82

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Unless something changes, I’m not touching Muscala or Rondo today.

  • frugal

    @superjon said...

    Start with Rozier, and run it back with Embiid

    Donovan as your late night hammer.

    Rozier at $23 on Yahoo feels like a trap. Embiid looks solid as it appears Harris is taking most his usage from Simmons. DvP would say play Tatum in this matchup presuming he starts at PF as PHI has been bad all season vs PF and LAC was even worse with Harris there all year. But I have a feeling PHI is going to blow this one out.

  • frugal

    @monarch said...

    He would need the minutes. The Magic play really slow and are loaded with length across their LU. It doesn’t sound ideal to me but I’ll have a few

    AD…maybe. The Magic however are great plays across the board.

  • Epignosis

    • 590

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #82

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @frugal said...

    Rozier at $23 on Yahoo feels like a trap. Embiid looks solid as it appears Harris is taking most his usage from Simmons. DvP would say play Tatum in this matchup presuming he starts at PF as PHI has been bad all season vs PF and LAC was even worse with Harris there all year. But I have a feeling PHI is going to blow this one out.

    Marcus Morris is the Celtic I’m most interested in. He’s been consistent and has torched the 76ers for 34 and 37 fantasy points this season.

  • monarch

    @frugal said...

    AD…maybe. The Magic however are great plays across the board.

    Pels are playing slower too. But I like Isaac as I posted on page 1 of the thread.

  • monarch

    @Epignosis said...

    Marcus Morris is the Celtic I’m most interested in. He’s been consistent and has torched the 76ers for 34 and 37 fantasy points this season.

    I’ve got to be careful I dont get too much Morris and he punches someone in the face. Pretty sure Tatum will play 38 minutes and not get kicked out of the game. But I really like Morris. Probably too much

  • mtdurham

    @Kmasonbx said...

    As someone who played poker for a living for a long time and now does it as a hobby and takes it pretty seriously I appreciate this comment. It’s so true, you make way more money in poker by not making bad plays rather than making great plays. The elite of the elite combine both but the majority of us who make money playing poker do so by avoiding “fancy play syndrome.”

    It’s the same thing that ails DFS players, playing someone just because “hey, you never know” is such a bad strategy. Play guys who are good plays.

    I started keeping more diligent records lately….

    I would build my best lineup… write it down… then throw my 20 “best lineups” in the $1 And One….

    If i just threw my best lineup in that event 20 duplicate times I’d be up quite a bit of money … instead im basically breakeven by playing 20 different ones…

    My 20th best lineup is kinda like playing King-Queen… there are slates and contests (tables/positions) where I can probably play that lineup (hand) profitably…. and there are slates (tables/positions) where i probably can not play that lineup (hand) profitably

  • frugal

    @Epignosis said...

    Marcus Morris is the Celtic I’m most interested in. He’s been consistent and has torched the 76ers for 34 and 37 fantasy points this season.

    Ah yes. Looks like he played well against LAC as well and IIRC gets a solid usage bump with Kyrie out.

  • frugal

    @monarch said...

    Pels are playing slower too. But I like Isaac as I posted on page 1 of the thread.

    Are they? Bummer…

  • siddom

    Issac at 6400 on FD??

  • Njsum1

    @mtdurham said...

    This will help you avoid doing something stupid like building your core around Chasson Randle, Karl Anthony Towns, etc

    Towns was a good play. He did well during his time on the court, yet got into serious foul trouble and only played 27 minutes. Foul trouble generally isn’t predictable. If he played his typical 34 to 38 he would have gotten you anywhere from 55 to 65 DK points. I’ll take that for 10k.

    Randle on the other hand…well that’s a little tougher….I was heavy on Randle had him in like 11 of 15 lineups, yet I had my concerns that what happened with him was in the realm of realistic outcomes and I should have been much lighter. Still a min price point guard in a good matchup is always worth some run. That concern however, led me to Beal in 6 of 15, which was like 5x the field, so glass half full I guess.

    Also from reading some of your posts, it seems you don’t take into account the degree to which luck or variance plays a part in DFS. It’s not an exact science, which is why a blind squirrel can find a nut every now and again, and why less skilled players continue to play even though they don’t win with regularity.

    Of course we know what we should have done in hindsight. Yet a lot of those outcomes or things you say you should have known or been more keen to, are simply lucky or variant outcomes. Sometimes they’re not, yet often they are.

  • ASitar

    @mtdurham said...

    I started keeping more diligent records lately….

    I would build my best lineup… write it down… then throw my 20 “best lineups” in the $1 And One….

    If i just threw my best lineup in that event 20 duplicate times I’d be up quite a bit of money … instead im basically breakeven by playing 20 different ones…

    My 20th best lineup is kinda like playing King-Queen… there are slates and contests (tables/positions) where I can probably play that lineup (hand) profitably…. and there are slates (tables/positions) where i probably can not play that lineup (hand) profitably

    I made one DK LU and I can’t see how I can make a better one. Hoping to keep rolling tonight. Did 2 $15 DK LUs last night that hit 319.50 and 313 and both had Zubac and one had Randle but still made $65. Your input has been helpful the last few days – keep it coming!!

  • Kmasonbx

    What are people’s thoughts on DeRozan tonight? I don’t think I’ve gotten him right once this season, whenever I play him puts up 28. Tonight feels like a spot where he could put up 50, he’ll be the nominal PG but will be treated like the SG which is the position the Grizz struggle most with.

  • lovpink

    Reggie bullock still super cheap although he busted last game think i’m going back

  • jjpk

    @lovpink said...

    Reggie bullock still super cheap although he busted last game think i’m going back

    Perfect time to jump back on. Game log watchers will be off him because of the poor performance against Phila. I know the term “smash spot” is used too liberally, but given ATL’s total lack of interest in guarding the 3-point line, Bullock should be in for a big night.

  • frugal

    @Njsum1 said...

    Towns was a good play. He did well during his time on the court, yet got into serious foul trouble and only played 27 minutes. Foul trouble generally isn’t predictable. If he played his typical 34 to 38 he would have gotten you anywhere from 55 to 65 DK points. I’ll take that for 10k.

    Randle on the other hand…well that’s a little tougher….I was heavy on Randle had him in like 11 of 15 lineups, yet I had my concerns that what happened with him was in the realm of realistic outcomes and I should have been much lighter. Still a min price point guard in a good matchup is always worth some run. That concern however, led me to Beal in 6 of 15, which was like 5x the field, so glass half full I guess.

    Also from reading some of your posts, it seems you don’t take into account the degree to which luck or variance plays a part in DFS. It’s not an exact science, which is why a blind squirrel can find a nut every now and again, and why less skilled players continue to play even though they don’t win with regularity.

    Of course we know what we should have done in hindsight. Yet a lot of those outcomes or things you say you should have known or been more keen to, are simply lucky or variant outcomes. Sometimes they’re not, yet often they are.

    Towns wasn’t a great play IMHO with both Teague and Rose back. The best play on the MIN side due to price was Saric when it was announced he was starting, got him into my main Yahoo lineup but didn’t have time to swap out on DK. Obviously the best play of the game was Lou in hindsight which should have been pretty obvious but I completely overlooked.

    I had Randle and was very nervous about him wanting to swap out to Harris but have been trying to tamper less with my lineups right before tip. Still did very well, but oh what could have been…

  • frugal

    @jjpk said...

    Perfect time to jump back on. Game log watchers will be off him because of the poor performance against Phila. I know the term “smash spot” is used too liberally, but given ATL’s total lack of interest in guarding the 3-point line, Bullock should be in for a big night.

    Bullock has faced ATL 2X when he was with DET and averaged .55 FPPM. Looking at the FGA distribution in his Laker debut, I think he might be even farther down the pecking order than when he was in DET. Obviously if James should sit, that might change things, but personally I don’t see the appeal tonight.

  • Njsum1

    @Epignosis said...

    Marcus Morris is the Celtic I’m most interested in. He’s been consistent and has torched the 76ers for 34 and 37 fantasy points this season.

    Him or Tatum. Whoever gets more Tobias def and less Butler should have a nice game. Both guys are priced for an upside game. Tobias and Marcus also used to be teammates. No DFS relevance (I don’t think), just throwing it out there.

  • Kmasonbx

    @Njsum1 said...

    Still a min price point guard in a good matchup is always worth some run.

    The thing was, he wasn’t really a min priced PG, he was a min priced SG. If you ran courtIQ yesterday with him and Beal on the court together Randle was at 0.62 DKppm while Beal was at 1.41. Beal is their PG if he’s on the court with no Wall or Sato. I did end up with some Randle unfortunately, had to find some way to fit CP3, PG or KAT, and Drummond or Beal in.

  • Njsum1

    @frugal said...

    Towns wasn’t a great play IMHO with both Teague and Rose back. The best play on the MIN side due to price was Saric when it was announced he was starting,

    I disagree, Wiggins was out, Wiggins takes a lot of shots, those were going to Towns. I don’t disagree on Saric. Once he was announced the starter, I got him into as many as I could, yet some spaces were already locked up. Saric benefitted from Towns being in foul trouble even though Saric got in a little foul trouble himself. Then Okogie got hurt although he doesn’t chuck that much, still a few more shots got spread around. If Towns didn’t get into foul trouble and Okogie doesn’t get hurt, Saric does well, yet not quite that well.

  • Ace15

    Trae Trae a lock for me…dude’s been balling really coming into his own as well, I’ve been watching a lot of ATL games for some reason lol. Issacc is too cheap, but maybe now is the time to get off before he goes busto…Love Gobert tonight. I have absolutely 0 idea who to play from BOS tonight lol.

  • Kmasonbx

    @frugal said...

    Towns wasn’t a great play IMHO with both Teague and Rose back

    Teague doesn’t hurt KAT’s production according to CourtIQ with Teague on and Rose off, KAT is at 1.5ppm since the trade and is at 1.51 overall with 390 of the 404 minutes also including Wiggins. Now when both are on KAT drops all the way down to 1.31, but you can easily argue Rose being back was cancelled out by Wiggins being out and Rose wouldn’t share the court all that much with both Teague and KAT.

  • jayzee666

    @frugal said...

    Towns wasn’t a great play IMHO with both Teague and Rose back. The best play on the MIN side due to price was Saric when it was announced he was starting, got him into my main Yahoo lineup but didn’t have time to swap out on DK. Obviously the best play of the game in hindsight which should have been pretty obvious but I completely overlooked was Lou.

    I had Randle and was very nervous about him wanting to swap out to Harris but have been trying to tamper less with my lineups right before tip. Still did very well, but oh what could have been…

    Deng was the obvious lock.
    Randle was a “trap”. No history of good performance. No revenge narrative! Should have played McRae instead, didnt do much but more upside.

    I like playing this would’ve/should’ve hindsight game!!!

  • monarch

    @Ace15 said...

    Trae Trae a lock for me…dude’s been balling really coming into his own as well, I’ve been watching a lot of ATL games for some reason lol. Issacc is too cheap, but maybe now is the time to get off before he goes busto…Love Gobert tonight. I have absolutely 0 idea who to play from BOS tonight lol.

    I agree with all of that. Play Morris, Tatum and consider Horford. Rozier and Brown are priced up and Hayward is too dicey. Marcus Smart could be a play. The Celtics allow a ton of threes….consider Redick at 5300.

  • Njsum1

    @Kmasonbx said...

    The thing was, he wasn’t really a min priced PG, he was a min priced SG. If you ran courtIQ yesterday with him and Beal on the court together Randle was at 0.62 DKppm while Beal was at 1.41. Beal is their PG if he’s on the court with no Wall or Sato. I did end up with some Randle unfortunately, had to find some way to fit CP3, PG or KAT, and Drummond or Beal in.

    Right which is why I was heavy Beal. Still, I was expecting more minutes from Randle. I figured his likely outcome was 20 DK points, with downside 15 ish and upside 30. I was trying to Jam in studs and Larry Nance, so I had a lot of Randle and Chriss.

    Sidenote…had a lineup last night on DK score 337.5 with Zubac at center and Okogie getting hurt.

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