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  • bhdevault

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  • Donnyleonard

    @mtdurham said...

    In the 20max or the 150max there are going to be millions of combos of stars/scrubs/gamestacks/etc… .so even though the lineups might be “worse” individually, collectively they create this giant monster that’s tough to beat and you’ll never get by playing simply a “solid” lineup

    First of all thanks MT you’re always helpful! That’s a great way of explaining it all.
    Now that I’ve been playing daily and trying get a better understanding on DFS in general I realize how lucky I’ve been the last year and a half. Went from setting my lineup with LeBron and McCollum 3 hours before tip to staring at my phone praying that Arcidiacono will get the start and if not do I play Stauskas 5 min before rosters lock!
    Ignorance is/was bliss!

  • Njsum1

    @Donnyleonard said...

    First of all thanks MT you’re always helpful! That’s a great way of explaining it all.
    Now that I’ve been playing daily and trying get a better understanding on DFS in general I realize how lucky I’ve been the last year and a half. Went from setting my lineup with LeBron and McCollum 3 hours before tip to staring at my phone praying that Arcidiacono will get the start and if not do I play Stauskas 5 min before rosters lock!
    Ignorance is/was bliss!

    Haha…Just kidding…I couldn’t resist a Big Lebowski reference…😁

  • ASitar

    Is tonight an Omari Spellman night?

  • feekdogg

    @ASitar said...

    Is tonight an Omari Spellman night?

    I think it’s an Alex Len night.

  • Donnyleonard

    @MerMer3 said...

    The key is which Pelican to roster…that has the most “heart” to keep them in it.

    The guy with the most “heart” is prob Kenny Hustle but unfortunately he does not have the most “talent”.

  • terlingua

    Have had a lousy 3 weeks, looking forward to the break to say the least.

    Going to switch to Fanduel tonight with the relative ‘safe’ slate. Don’t anticipate a lot going on in terms of after lock news etc. Plus the start times are close enough to bring some comfort.

    Will decide after tonight’s games whether to wrap it up for the year and hang on to a modest profit or continue on till the bitter end.

    Last year I broke away a little further after the break to hold profit as things got crazy. It feels like things got crazier sooner this year.

    If I do take a break I hope to come back next year with at least a little more money so I can implement my ideas for a better test.

  • Donnyleonard

    @Njsum1 said...

    Haha…Just kidding…I couldn’t resist a Big Lebowski reference…😁

    Hey you have to take the lay up! Besides, The dude abides.

  • Njsum1

    @Donnyleonard said...

    Hey you have to take the lay up! Besides, The dude abides.

    Haha..nice1

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @mtdurham said...

    i dont disagree in general, but frankly im shocked the spread is only 5 after NOP last showing…. i do think there is a heck of a lot more blowout risk tonight than there is in a standard 5 point spread game…

    Yeah, def a bit surprising. It opened at 3.5 too.

  • MerMer3

    Hey if he can do something with all those minutes Gentry’s giving him…..not a terrible play. Fan Favorite…too bad there’s no points for that haha

  • queensfinest

    are ppl really gonna play kevin knox? lol im a knick fan unfortunately i have to watch him play every game and hes absolutely terrible

  • Donnyleonard

    Biyombo is out. Usually doesn’t mean much but hey it’s only a 3 game slate.

  • Agent47

    @queensfinest said...

    are ppl really gonna play kevin knox? lol im a knick fan unfortunately i have to watch him play every game and hes absolutely terrible

    I wasn’t planning on it.

  • mbunner23

    @queensfinest said...

    are ppl really gonna play kevin knox? lol im a knick fan unfortunately i have to watch him play every game and hes absolutely terrible

    He’s going to be good. But as far as DFS, you’re right, you never know what you’re gonna get with him.

  • Agent47

    Vuc up to 10K…In his last 6 against the Hornets, his high is 50, and the rest have been 40 and under (DK scoring). That includes 35 and 27.8 against them in 2 meetings this season.

  • frugal

    @queensfinest said...

    are ppl really gonna play kevin knox? lol im a knick fan unfortunately i have to watch him play every game and hes absolutely terrible

    Besides maybe Jordan, are there really any “good” Knicks players?

  • Donnyleonard

    @queensfinest said...

    are ppl really gonna play kevin knox? lol im a knick fan unfortunately i have to watch him play every game and hes absolutely terrible

    I’d think that Hezonja is the better matchup for ATL but he doesn’t play consistent minutes.

  • frugal

    @Agent47 said...

    Vuc up to 10K…In his last 6 against the Hornets, his high is 50, and the rest have been 40 and under (DK scoring). That includes 35 and 27.8 against them in 2 meetings this season.

    CHA has blown out ORL in both meetings this year, 120-88 and 125-100.

  • biga0787

    Fading Davis. If he kills me so be it.

  • BBWC_10

    @Njsum1 said...

    Profiting over the course of a season without any major wins is not luck. Winning a large field GPP…imo is a bit luck based, especially if you only make a couple of lineups per night.

    Of course luck is involved on a day to day basis, yet consistently profiting over a season without binking more than ones expected share, I don’t think is luck. I’d say 2/3 skill 1/3 luck. Maybe 3/4 skill 1/4 luck. Luck of course plays a part, yet skill plays a bigger one…imo

    Luck? Never happens for me in dfs. Like last night, all the punts hit, have siakiam, Lowry. In a great spot to suck up thousands of entries with dame/KD left and they do NOTHING the entire 4th quarter. Does that fall under skill or luck? Sorry still very tilted about that!

  • mtdurham

    @Agent47 said...

    Vuc up to 10K…In his last 6 against the Hornets, his high is 50, and the rest have been 40 and under (DK scoring). That includes 35 and 27.8 against them in 2 meetings this season.

    Steve Clifford Revenge Night?

  • queensfinest

    @frugal said...

    Besides maybe Jordan, are there really any “good” Knicks players?

    yes. mitchell robinson is the best two way player on the team but everyone is total trash except id say deandre

  • ASitar

    @mtdurham said...

    Thoughts on AD:

    1) If AD were a guy like Russell Westbrook I’d use him in 100% of lineups…. I dont think AD is a psycho hungry, driven competitor like Westbrook (obviously) but i also think he’s soft and i could totally see him crapping the bed even if he tries….

    2) He’s $9k with a likely outcome of 45-50 FPS and 80+ FPS upside..

    I can pick someone else at the $9k range and he’s really not all that much less likely than AD to get 37 FPS and bust… but he is a heck of a lot less likely than AD to go for 70 FPS

    In summary, i will be overweight AD.

    My thoughts exactly on AD. I had Vuc in at C in one LU and was thinking “Why pay $1k more for a player w the same floor as Glass but 20 points less of a ceiling?

    On a small slate like this, it’s important to find those couple of guys that if they see 28-32 minutes opposed to their 22-26 minutes at their usual price you’ll have a great night. Those guys are Trier and Spellman for me tonight. Like poker, it’s not necessarily playing the cards you have, but playing your opponents suspected moves. If the field is on Allen at say 15% ownership I’m hoping Trier puts up 25 DK points at 4%. That’s how I look at these small slates. Taking the right chalk and fading the popular guys that I think will bust (and hope they do) ie – Trae Young.

  • mtdurham

    @frugal said...

    CHA has blown out ORL in both meetings this year, 120-88 and 125-100.

    That 120-88 beatdown was probably the most convincing Hornet blowout i’ve seen this decade….

    something about this matchup where Orlando can’t seem to hang with us, like at all…

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @ASitar said...

    My thoughts exactly on AD. I had Vuc in at C in one LU and was thinking “Why pay $1k more for a player w the same floor as Glass but 20 points less of a ceiling?

    On a small slate like this, it’s important to find those couple of guys that if they see 28-32 minutes opposed to their 22-26 minutes at their usual price you’ll have a great night. Those guys are Trier and Spellman for me tonight. Like poker, it’s not necessarily playing the cards you have, but playing your opponents suspected moves. If the field is on Allen at say 15% ownership I’m hoping Trier puts up 25 DK points at 4%. That’s how I look at these small slates. Taking the right chalk and fading the popular guys that I think will bust (and hope they do) ie – Trae Young.

    Man, yall got me missing the old days with all this poker talk.

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