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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 11 ) at Washington ( -11 ) —- T: 218.5
    8:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 9 ) at Houston ( -9 ) —- T: 223
    8:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 15 ) at San Antonio ( -15 ) —- T: 210.5
    10:30 PM EST : Golden State ( -8 ) at LA Clippers ( 8 ) —- T: 226

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • draped

    @wuchild97 said...

    Im not trying to slam the forum. Not calling it stupid. The forum has helped me tremendously. Dont take it personal dude. I am just telling the person to make his lineup first then starting reading the forum. Following the herd has worked out but sometimes it burns you. If you look at his comment first when he said “Rule #1 for me today. Ignore this thread.” I was just giving him another alternative. The people on here are some smart dfs players. Way more in tuned than i am. But if you pivot from some of the more talked about players it can help. Relax my man

    **Edit: I am not a fan of people blaming the forum when they lose. Take ownership of your decisions

    I would not call this the ‘herd’. the amount of players talking on this thread is very minimal. if you are looking for projected ownership based on this forum then you are probably not projecting very well.

  • Potsmoke

    @yanks250125 said...

    This swaggy slate on FD is hilarious

    Love it, have never seen anything like it, I am definitely looking forward to playing a LU in that. Wish they had larger GPP for it.

  • Jordan3329

    Been silently following this forum for a few weeks now. I’ve tried tips from here as well as different LU optimizers and my LU’s still very rarely top 300. If they do, I’m a player away from making any real money. Anyone know of any quality research tools they can share? I feel like when I’m most confident in my LU it ends up tanking. Last night for example I had Lopez Drummond and Barnes all disappoint while TT goes off a game after letting me down lol

  • yountingly

    • 440

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #44

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @superjon said...

    Rule #1 for me today. Ignore this thread.

    I don’t think that’s necessary. Due to work, kids, etc . You know time restraints. I’m not in here every day. Like someone just said, do your own research, make your lus. I will monitor and sometimes post in this thread on my days off like today for news/tweets I may not see or for opinions from long time posters I “know” and appreciate. Helps me look at things differently and makes clearer in my own mind as to what I’m doing. Rarely am I swayed by what is said in here and it is usually when I’m on the fence on a guy to begin with.

  • heyfeefellskee

    Is it just me, or was last night awful? Is it because the slate was so big, or what?

  • frugal

    @superjon said...

    That’s the problem lol. I make my line up all the time and then start making adjustments based on what I read here. Maybe I’m making the wrong adjustments, but today I’m just strictly sticking with my own research.

    Once you’ve been here long enough, you will get a better idea of who might be offering insight you may have overlooked and who’s blowing hot air. This should be self explanatory but never, never, ever roster someone based on posts like “[insert player] gonna go 8X”. However, you should perhaps think of rostering people based on posts like “[insert player] has been killing value and will see increased usage and likely to see 30+ minutes in a solid matchup.”

    There are several posters here who are die-hard fans of specific franchises (Mavs fan here) who can provide insight into rotations and team strategy.

  • Chewy00

    On a slate like this and the way harden played the last 2, think its viable to create cash lineup with him, Hes bound to go off tonight right?

  • kipboggins

    @Jordan3329 said...

    Been silently following this forum for a few weeks now. I’ve tried tips from here as well as different LU optimizers and my LU’s still very rarely top 300. If they do, I’m a player away from making any real money. Anyone know of any quality research tools they can share? I feel like when I’m most confident in my LU it ends up tanking. Last night for example I had Lopez Drummond and Barnes all disappoint while TT goes off a game after letting me down lol

    So hard to have all your “players” go off. But you do have to always take a few things in mind. Example Centers VS Twolves tend to go off. Drummond has never had a good history against Anthony Davis.

    A good example I stick by are just tendencies. Example SF against Clippers. I got Tucker at 1.5% ownership last night and at 4200, he got me 32 DK Points last night. So try to stick with trends and yes they won’t always hit but you can tend to do better by seeing where the weaknesses are on other teams.

    Oh, one more thing. Its crazy how good Vegas is in projecting a player. Like last night Vegas had Curry big numbers projected and thought, huh that’s interesting, plugged him in and then he GOES OFF. Same can be said like I loved Teague against Orlando, and Conley vs Denver, but Vegas didn’t have a big projection for either player, I played those two anyways, and they both had mediocre games. Interesting stuff for sure.

  • ajnelson303

    Anyone have any word on Robert Covington tonight?

  • gausman7

    @Jordan3329 said...

    Been silently following this forum for a few weeks now. I’ve tried tips from here as well as different LU optimizers and my LU’s still very rarely top 300. If they do, I’m a player away from making any real money. Anyone know of any quality research tools they can share? I feel like when I’m most confident in my LU it ends up tanking. Last night for example I had Lopez Drummond and Barnes all disappoint while TT goes off a game after letting me down lol

    I have found through my experience that lineup construction takes some trial and error to figure out, but that has been the key to breaking 300. I started on FD, and I was pretty miserable. Pretty much used stars and scrubs because I liked having the big names. I switched over to DK, and after a few months started to find some cash game success. I have gotten to the point now where I am actually withdrawing from time to time and having regular success. I have also gone back to FD in the past three days and have had good results.

    What has worked for me is focusing on minutes and now allowing 1 or 2 bad games for a player to keep me off of them. If I can get players with 30+ minutes in games with good pace, I can usually fair pretty well. Also, understanding recency bias has helped me tremendously. Our brains want us to “hate” players when they let us down. You mentioned Tristan Thompson and that was a great example. He has been playing well. He had one bad game and his ownership was under 4% yesterday in some places.

    It doesnt hurt to know and compare FD and DK pricing to help identify value. FD pricing is extremely tight right now while DK is a lot more loose at the moment. The dramatic differences can give you some idea of value play…especially in the mid-range.

    Lastly, I would suggest playing in the smaller slates until you get really comfortable with lineup construction and utilize the free rolls to work on getting scores up.

    Sorry for the rambling post…hope this helps.

  • frugal

    @Jordan3329 said...

    Been silently following this forum for a few weeks now. I’ve tried tips from here as well as different LU optimizers and my LU’s still very rarely top 300. If they do, I’m a player away from making any real money. Anyone know of any quality research tools they can share? I feel like when I’m most confident in my LU it ends up tanking. Last night for example I had Lopez Drummond and Barnes all disappoint while TT goes off a game after letting me down lol

    There is no guarantee. Basketball is a highly variable game and certain players will go off without warning. I got burned last night in my main lineup by having both Melo (broke my never roster on B2B rule) and George (wanna get 10 trips to the FT line, my ass) in it. The 3 things which have helped me most:

    1. Build your own model. You’ll need to do some research and it requires some tech skills but IMHO, it is typically a far better tool than the freely available ones and unless your spending up every night the paid ones are too expensive.

    2. Learn to ignore recency bias. Once you get your model built, trust it even if it tells you to roster a player who put up a complete dud last game or fade a player that killed it last game. Recency bias was the biggest crutch to consistently cashing. Once I was able to overlook it, I’ve performed much, much better.

    3. Focus more on consistency over upside. Perhaps controversial among those aiming for the top prize, but if your goal is to consistently cash aim for consistency over upside. Leave a spot or 2 for the upside guys but fill the rest with consistent performers (even better if they’re slightly underpriced).

  • thebimonster

    The number of obvious plays last night that turned into landmines was an absolute joke. Fade logic. If I learned anything from last night, I will be fading all of the Wizards tonight and game stacking Phi/SA. Who is tonight’s Sasha Vujacic who will get two four-point plays off the bench???

  • winnerchickendinner

    I read this forum for fun. I am disciplined enough not to change my lineups if someone says take this player. I do my lineups based on research. There are about 30-40 people who post here on the forum each day and they do not represent everyone. Also they are not the top players either and I have not heard outside of 1 to 2 people come back to the forum and said I took down a gpp.

  • billholler

    Don’t know if it’s been discussed yet but all 4 games have blowout potential. I can see 2 or 3 min priced scrubs getting significant garbage time fantasy points.

  • DirkDigglerz

    Blowout or not Lou Will has a nice floor and great upside. Guy can score in bunches.

  • satchmo77

    yeah, its getting hard to roster anyone vs. the warriors. Even if they are out on the floor in third quarter their spirits are already broken.

  • billholler

    @satchmo77 said...

    yeah, its getting hard to roster anyone vs. the warriors. Even if they are out on the floor in third quarter their spirits are already broken.

    Hi,my name is Kemba Walker and I have a broken spirit.

  • Epignosis

    • 702

      RG Overall Ranking

    @frugal said...

    There are several posters here who are die-hard fans of specific franchises (Mavs fan here) who can provide insight into rotations and team strategy.

    Like me. As a Magic fan, I can tell you if Elfrid Payton hair is going to outscore the rest of him, or how confused and defeated Frank Vogel is going to be looking that evening..

  • Jordan3329

    Where do you check vegas’ individual player projections?

  • thebimonster

    I have a feeling someone will get popped tonight. The Spurs B squad should easily handle an Embid-less Sixers team coming off a game last night.

  • FDDough

    @thebimonster said...

    I have a feeling someone will get popped tonight. The Spurs B squad should easily handle an Embid-less Sixers team coming off a game last night.

    Im hoping its Leonard, Got Simmons in my super tourney

  • AdamTheBolt

    Yesterday morning I talked about how I was going to quit making last minute lineup changes based on late news and stick with the lineup I had already created assuming no major news about one of my players. I had a lineup I was comfortable with. Naturally I changed it up at the last minute and punted Amir Johnson and upgraded at a couple of other spots.And of course, it failed miserably and the players I switched out (like Hayward, Porzingis and K Thompson) had decent games.

    What I am saying is, I need to develop a plan I like and stick with it. When I overthink, I fail.

  • manBEAST

    Happy Groundhogs day lets do this all over again! As someone mentioned I like these smallish slates as well, however every game has potential blowout written all over it, don’t like to get into the habit of predicting blowouts, but the game stack that doesn’t blow out could be the difference. Can one fit Curry & Harden and fill in the right blanks, lets hope so!

  • draped

    @AdamTheBolt said...

    Yesterday morning I talked about how I was going to quit making last minute lineup changes based on late news and stick with the lineup I had already created assuming no major news about one of my players. I had a lineup I was comfortable with. Naturally I changed it up at the last minute and punted Amir Johnson and upgraded at a couple of other spots.And of course, it failed miserably and the players I switched out (like Hayward, Porzingis and K Thompson) had decent games.

    What I am saying is, I need to develop a plan I like and stick with it. When I overthink, I fail.

    I think any kind of blanket statement will just torment you. such as ‘I won’t make any last minute changes’. instead try making a more in the middle statement like ‘I won’t make any last minute changes, unless its a 1FP/min bench guy who is starting or a stud with one of his stud teammates out or etc’. Then you can try and get rid of the less profitable outcomes while still having access to the changes you should be making.

    Then as you play more and use your rule of thumb more maybe you adjust it to add more exceptions or get rid of exceptions or tweak them. And now you have something you can follow and modify and not feel guilty about your decisions the next day.

  • Bravesfan2500

    Where do you find Vegas projections for specific players? Thanks for the insight.

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