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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    5:00 PM EST : LA Clippers ( 1.5 ) at Detroit ( -1.5 ) —- T: 214.5
    7:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at Charlotte ( -6.5 ) —- T: 216.5
    7:00 PM EST : Brooklyn ( 2 ) at Orlando ( -2 ) —- T: 218
    7:00 PM EST : Milwaukee ( -6 ) at Washington ( 6 ) —- T: 229.5
    7:30 PM EST : Dallas ( -8 ) at Cleveland ( 8 ) —- T: 210
    7:30 PM EST : Indiana ( 3 ) at Miami ( -3 ) —- T: 205
    8:30 PM EST : New Orleans ( 10.5 ) at San Antonio ( -10.5 ) —- T: 231.5
    8:30 PM EST : LA Lakers ( 10.5 ) at Golden State ( -10.5 ) —- T: 236.5
    9:00 PM EST : Denver ( -1 ) at Minnesota ( 1 ) —- T: 220.5
    9:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 2.5 ) at Phoenix ( -2.5 ) —- T: 235.5
    9:00 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at Utah ( -7 ) —- T: 222
    10:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at Sacramento ( 3 ) —- T: 235

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NBA thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Kp24

    @Benf15harp said...

    With rose likely playing? Nah!
    Wiggins vs the human turnstile named will Barton is pretty enticing though

    Thanks sir! I will commence my search elsewhere in the $4k range

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @captainwacky said...

    I jump in to the ‘multipliers don’t matter’ conversation every time, because Epignois is right— they don’t. I mean, they do in the sense that at the end of the day, you can calculate the multiplier and say what you “needed” that day. THAT DAY. but then trying to generalize it to another slate is an intellectual death sentence that people fall into.

    If all the value is insane on a slate and you have obvious great chalk, you know what isn’t a good play? A cheap guy that gets 7x. I don’t care if “omg, it’s 7x!”, if you play a 3k guy that gets you 21 some nights, you just opportunity costed yourself out of success. Similarly, we have all these crazy value plays, you just want to get the guys who can score the most points total and have the highest ceiling. Their multiplier might not end up being the shiniest, but it also doesn’t matter.

    Finally, as Epignosis also brought up, we’re buying ranges of outcomes. Literally no one has projections that are accurate consistently. They are good indicators of ranges, but that’s it. Obviously the guy who won with faried probably wanted more than 30 or whatever, but everyone else only had the bad options he did, too. Was Faried a bad play at not even 4x? Nope, he was the best play.

    I think multipliers are helpful for comparing certain players when creating lineups and when sweating lineups, but yeah I get the point, all slates are different, etc..

    I think the range of outcomes thing is important when thinking about somebody having a bad game. It was always a possibility, it doesn’t mean you’re projections were wrong! When you project somebody’s ceiling at 10x, median at 6.8x and floor at 3.3x (a certain Mav tonight), a 4.6x game is obviously well within their range of outcomes. Too often people want to come back in here and tell somebody they were wrong. You can’t prove that from one game…If they go Tyreke Evans and flop like 6/7 slates when a lot of projections had him smashing, then yeah, they were wrong.

  • mtdurham

    @siddom said...

    tyreke evans in, but not exposure for me.

    kinda crazy how washed up tyreke seemed to be… then he looked unreal last year in a contract year… now he’s just hot garbage… im almost positive he didnt work out or play basketball this offseason

  • noddy

    NBA Yahoo league, $2…get it boyz!!!!!!

    https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/contest/4212029

  • Benf15harp

    @Kp24 said...

    Thanks sir! I will commence my search elsewhere in the $4k range

    Brewer looks solid
    Iggy as well

  • mtdurham

    @captainwacky said...

    I jump in to the ‘multipliers don’t matter’ conversation every time, because Epignois is right— they don’t. I mean, they do in the sense that at the end of the day, you can calculate the multiplier and say what you “needed” that day. THAT DAY. but then trying to generalize it to another slate is an intellectual death sentence that people fall into.

    If all the value is insane on a slate and you have obvious great chalk, you know what isn’t a good play? A cheap guy that gets 7x. I don’t care if “omg, it’s 7x!”, if you play a 3k guy that gets you 21 some nights, you just opportunity costed yourself out of success. Similarly, we have all these crazy value plays, you just want to get the guys who can score the most points total and have the highest ceiling. Their multiplier might not end up being the shiniest, but it also doesn’t matter.

    Finally, as Epignosis also brought up, we’re buying ranges of outcomes. Literally no one has projections that are accurate consistently. They are good indicators of ranges, but that’s it. Obviously the guy who won with faried probably wanted more than 30 or whatever, but everyone else only had the bad options he did, too. Was Faried a bad play at not even 4x? Nope, he was the best play.

    Im with you all the way until the last 2 sentences. Faried was far from the “best play”…. im not even sure he was a good play….. the guy who won did it in spite of faried moreso than because of him…

    but he did provide a level of safety to the lineup at a median price… you dont have to swing for the fences on every roster spot

  • Jkemdy

    Gobert vs Houston too ?

  • miggs6876

    @mtdurham said...

    Im with you all the way until the last 2 sentences. Faried was far from the “best play”…. im not even sure he was a good play….. the guy who won did it in spite of faried moreso than because of him…

    but he did provide a level of safety to the lineup at a median price… you dont have to swing for the fences on every roster spot

    I agree. Nice post.

  • captainwacky

    @mtdurham said...

    Im with you all the way until the last 2 sentences. Faried was far from the “best play”…. im not even sure he was a good play….. the guy who won did it in spite of faried moreso than because of him…

    but he did provide a level of safety to the lineup at a median price… you dont have to swing for the fences on every roster spot

    That’s a pair place to disagree— I actually thought in theory and (I guess?) practice has was the best play at PF on Fanduel but it isn’t largely relevant to the overall concept, whereas the other stuff is. Obviously diverging on player assessment is why we all play :)

  • captainwacky

    @Jkemdy said...

    Gobert vs Houston too ?

    Like it a lot— he played limited minutes yesterday so he’s probably not gassed, and he should make a snack of the aforementioned Faried.

  • Epignosis

    • 474

      RG Overall Ranking

    @mtdurham said...

    Im with you all the way until the last 2 sentences. Faried was far from the “best play”…. im not even sure he was a good play….. the guy who won did it in spite of faried moreso than because of him…

    but he did provide a level of safety to the lineup at a median price… you dont have to swing for the fences on every roster spot

    Intriguingly, the person who won the Four-Point Play did not have Faried and had a higher score (and would have won the $100k had he or she played that lineup in the Shoutaround by four points).

  • celticsfan014

    Bagley vs sixers or Jarrett Allen vs magic?

  • captainwacky

    @celticsfan014 said...

    Bagley vs sixers or Jarrett Allen vs magic?

    Neither? I guess bagley if I had to choose.

  • scott33

    @Jkemdy said...

    Gobert vs Houston too ?

    Absolutely

  • TJRhodes

    So many narratives, trades, and questionables I don’t even know where to start.

  • tmarohl

    So are any of Dallas’s new guys going to play tonight?

  • Kuda708

    Okafor still worthy at 7k on DK (vs Spurs)? And who u like more… Beal or DeMar?

  • DfsBopBooth

    @TJRhodes said...

    So many narratives, trades, and questionables I don’t even know where to start.

    Its Saturday, a lot of players will rest today. Just gotta wait for the news to come out before building a LU

  • mbunner23

    @mtdurham said...

    kinda crazy how washed up tyreke seemed to be… then he looked unreal last year in a contract year… now he’s just hot garbage… im almost positive he didnt work out or play basketball this offseason

    Tyreke needs the ball in his hand to be good. He’s not suited to play off the ball as a 2 guard unless he’s initiating the offense.

  • terlingua

    No one here has the chops to view an 8 or 9 person lineup as a whole. We don’t have that capacity (NONE OF US). Using ?x references is fine as long as you realize what it means in terms of ratios and it’s effect on your lineup goal.

    You can do what Bmons does on its live page and say Mack had a 109.286 ratio in terms of 3500 price to pts of 38.25 or you can say HOLY SH*T Mack hit 10.9x.

    Guess what most people will do? And it’s valid. Nothing wrong with using x values to include or dismiss players as long as you realize (misusing and changing a famous quote here) the whole IS the sum of it’s parts and each component is vitally important. Having a cheap hit 6x does not equal having a stud hit 6x. I suppose we could arrive at a gradated value for each price point. But why? You can basically do that in your head with a little nuance here and there.

    This railing against using the X factor to simplify discussions on a forum is getting old to me.

    It will always be around because it can be useful.

  • ASitar

    Would this be a JaVale McGee revenge game or did he leave on good terms?

  • Benf15harp

    @terlingua said...

    No one here has the chops to view an 8 or 9 person lineup as a whole. We don’t have that capacity (NONE OF US). Using ?x references is fine as long as you realize what it means in terms of ratios and it’s effect on your lineup goal.

    You can do what Bmons does on its live page and say Mack had a 109.286 ratio in terms of 3500 price to pts of 38.25 or you can say HOLY SH*T Mack hit 10.9x.

    Guess what most people will do? And it’s valid. Nothing wrong with using x values to include or dismiss players as long as you realize (misusing and changing a famous quote here) the whole IS the sum of it’s parts and each component is vitally important. Having a cheap hit 6x does not equal having a stud hit 6x. I suppose we could arrive at a gradated value. But why? You can basically do that in your head with a little nuance here and there.

    This railing against using the X factor to simplify discussions on a forum is getting old to me.

    It will always be around because it can be useful.

  • ASitar

    Is Nance a sneaky good play or a dud?

  • Benf15harp

    @ASitar said...

    Is Nance a sneaky good play or a dud?

    A little pricey considering he’s Splitting center mins with zizic

  • ASitar

    @Benf15harp said...

    A little pricey considering he’s Splitting center mins with zizic

    I know but it’s Powell/Kleber.

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