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  • Pandamonious

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    8:00 PM EST : Golden State ( -2 ) at Charlotte ( 2 ) — T: 230.5
    8:30 PM EST : Miami ( 3 ) at LA Lakers ( -3 ) — T: 212.5
    9:00 PM EST : Phoenix ( -3 ) at Memphis ( 3 ) — T: 224.5
    9:00 PM EST: Sacramento ( -2.5 ) at Chicago ( 2.5 ) — T: 232.5
    10:00 PM EST : Washington ( 4 ) at Portland ( -4 ) —- T: 242

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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • superjon

    5 game slate

    Hammer game with the highest total

    What more could you ask for?

  • Pandamonious

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    Hornets :

    Ca. Martin – OUT
    Co. Martin – OUT
    Hayward – P
    Graham – D

    Warriors :

    TBD – Assume same people are OUT

    Lakers :

    AD – OUT
    Schroder – OUT
    James – P
    Kuzma – P
    Morris – P

    Heat :

    Dragic – OUT

    Grizzlies :

    TBD – Brooks was questionable last night and did not play, assumed questionable today.

    Suns :

    TBD – Were fully healthy last night, assumed the same today.

    Bulls :

    TBD – Markkanen and Porter OUT last night, assumed OUT tonight.

    Kings :

    Barnes – Q
    Holmes – Q
    Robinson – Q

    Blazers :

    Giles – OUT

    Nukic, CJ, Collins – OUT

    Wizards :

    Bryant – OUT
    Smith – OUT

  • dominicanpapi

    The Warriors/Hornets and Bulls/Kings games are just as spicy as the late night game.

    Bertans is still sub 5K on FD. He finally looks in shape. DJJ is dirt cheap, so is Anthony.

    Assuming the same bigs are out for Sacramento, give me Bjelica at 5100 as well

  • Brendan239

    Well, we watched a movie and then slept together. I need to get my shit together. I only won $17 too. Think I might go grab a coffee after the gym then do some cold-calling on some merchants for a couple of hours and collect my thoughts. On tonight, looks like you can just stack the last couple of games a few ways and call it a night.

  • wmudude24

    2 lineups today. Rozier/Oubre/LBJ/ core, but will need sac value to make that work so hoping a couple of those guys sit.

    Really don’t want to have to roster KCP or Wes again.

  • Pandamonious

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    Going to go ahead and go through some plays until I get bored of it. Obviously not everyone, but comb through some guys who would be on our radar, and maybe make some comparisons to other similar plays, and who might be better.

    Curry – 116 implied total, (10.1 FD, 10 DK) Hornets, 21st in defensive efficiency to PG’s. 19th in DVP. Charlotte is middle of the road in 3PT% allowed, but allow the 3rd most 3 PT attempts in the league. Charlotte also allows the 2nd most assists per possession, while also specifically allowing the 2nd most assists to PG’s, and 4th most rebounds. Also the 7th most steals per games. This lines up as a juicy spot, due to the peripherals the Hornets give up, which is what will push a Curry game into the stratosphere. The bad news is Curry has been less effective on B2B’s, avg. only 41.3 FD points, while avg. 46.2 on the season. Sample size of B2B’s is 4 games, 3 of which Curry’s minutes were cut short by about 4 minutes due to blowouts, which cloud up his down performance in B2B’s. A game against a mediocre Hornets team, where the Warriors are actually favored should lower blowout risk

  • Tribefan18

    @Pandamonious said...

    Going to go ahead and go through some plays until I get bored of it. Obviously not everyone, but comb through some guys who would be on our radar, and maybe make some comparisons to other similar plays, and who might be better.

    Curry – 116 implied total, (10.1 FD, 10 DK) Hornets, 21st in defensive efficiency to PG’s. 19th in DVP. Charlotte is middle of the road in 3PT% allowed, but allow the 3rd most 3 PT attempts in the league. Charlotte also allows the 2nd most assists per possession, while also specifically allowing the 2nd most assists to PG’s, and 4th most rebounds. Also the 7th most steals per games. This lines up as a juicy spot, due to the peripherals the Hornets give up, which is what will push a Curry game into the stratosphere. The bad news is Curry has been less effective on B2B’s, avg. only 41.3 FD points, while avg. 46.2 on the season. Sample size of B2B’s is 4 games, 3 of which Curry’s minutes were cut short by about 4 minutes due to blowouts, which cloud up his down performance in B2B’s. A game against a mediocre Hornets team, where the Warriors are actually favored should lower blowout risk

    I greatly prefer dame, fox, lavine tonight then figure out the rest. May put curry and dame in one.

  • Pandamonious

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    Lillard – 123 implied total, (10.6 DK, 9.9 FD) Wizards, 27th in defensive efficiency against PG’s, 27th in DVP. Wizards give up the 6th highest 3PT% allowed, while middle of the road in attempts allowed. Wizards give up the 6th FEWEST assists per possession, and 12th fewest steals per possession. What the Wizards do is give up points, like crazy. Going by what the Wizards give up on average in ancillary stats, Dame will need all the real life points he can to pay off. Of course, with the highest USG rate on the slate most likely, the implied total and expected game environment, no one would be shocked if Dame scored 40+ real life points. On 2/2 these two teams played and Dame scored 32 on 9/23 shooting, with 8 assists, 2 boards, and a block for 46.4 FD points in 39 minutes of a 132-121 win.

  • Pandamonious

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    Westbrook – 119 implied total (10 DK, 9.2 FD) Blazers, 29th in defensive efficiency against PG’s, 29th in DVP. Portland is pretty much league average in both 3PT categories. They give up the 12 most assists per possession, while only the 2nd most steals. Westbrook who is more of a threat to drive to the rim then shoot the 3, so worth nothing Portland is league average in points in the paint allowed. Portland is allowing PG’s to score more real life points than any other team in the league, and also the most rebounds, which would help his path to a triple double. The issue for Westbrook more than anything is he’s just not consistently scoring enough, because he’s not shooting enough or more importantly well enough, much more often than not to put up massive fantasy totals. The peripherals are there though to put it all together. Worth noting also, that he is averaging only 36.7 FD points in 8 road games.

  • Pandamonious

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    As for paying up at PG, I think it’s easy to dismiss Westbrook. I’m guessing he will easily be the lowest owned of the 3, but for good reason. The leverage will be there, but the payoff is minimal. On DK, Dame’s price is tricky, and if he does end up being chalky there, the pivot down to Curry looks like it makes a ton of sense here to me. On FD where the prices are much more similar, I would imagine Dame will be significantly higher owned, but it doesn’t take much effort to see Curry has every bit the chance of exploding as Dame, with his 3 games over 60 in his last 10, while Dame has 2.

  • Brendan239

    I’m telling ya, play Ball/Rozier together in a LU. Also, how do you not go RoCo/Bertrans on FD?

  • Pandamonious

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    Fox – 118 implied total (8.1 FD, 8 DK) Bulls, 29th in defensive efficiency against PG’s, 24th in DVP. Bulls are just above league average in 3 PT defensive categories. They allow the 5th fewest assists per possession, while allowing the 4th most steals per possession. There isn’t a specific category the Bulls just get crushed in against PG’s, but more of just a steady dose from everywhere. Fox averages more fantasy points on the road and on 1 day of rest than any other categories. Looking at the match up as a whole there is very little different between this match up for Fox, and for the other studs, and Fox outscoring any of them wouldn’t be shocking. His FPPM total is about 0.2 lower, but his USG is right there.

  • jfitzgan

    @Brendan239 said...

    I’m telling ya, play Ball/Rozier together in a LU. Also, how do you not go RoCo/Bertrans on FD?

    I’ve been staring at rozier. Played him a bunch his last 2 games. Are we concerned that both Hayward and Washington are back as far as his usage? Looks like graham won’t play so that bodes well for him.

  • Pandamonious

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    Paul – 113 implied total (7.8 FD, 7.8 DK) Memphis, 10th in defensive efficiency against PG’s, 1st in DVP. The Grizz give up the 5th highest 3PT% allowed, and are middle of the road in attempts allowed. They give up the 6th most assists per possession, and 3rd most steals. Despite holding PG’s in check overall, if wanting to play Paul, the fact that the Grizz give up the 4th most assists, and 2nd most steals to the position is a huge, and he’s going to need it. Popping off for 15 assists and 4 steals wouldn’t be crazy, and basically will be what you’re looking for. Paul is averaging 35.6 FD points on no rest, but has been on a pretty consistent tear over his last 10.

  • jfitzgan

    Herro at $700 cheaper plus lower ownership seems a good pivot off of rozier assuming he’s chalky.

  • jfitzgan

    This feels like a 10 game slate to me. Soooo many different ways to go. I do like Bertrans as he seems to be rounding into form. The Holmes news will be big and I highly doubt we get news before lock. And knowing the Kings we may not get the news until 5 minutes after that game actually locks.

  • factorial89

    lakers coming off a bad loss on national tv.miami on 6th day of 7 day road trip.lebron loves to beat up his former team.

  • Wooden_Bones

    True, but that game total compared to the rest of the slate is LOW.

  • Pandamonious

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    Ball – 114 implied total (8.8 DK, 7.8 FD) Golden Stare are 13th in defensive efficiency against PG, while 9th best in DVP. Golden state is mostly league average in 3 PT defensive categories, and 6th best in points allowed in the paint. They’re also allowing the 4th fewest assists per possession, and 6th fewest steals per possession. Ball is average 5 more FPPG at home, which might not be surprising as a rookie, even with a lack of fans. It’s worth nothing in a 460 minute sample size for the season Ball is AVG a 0.9% USG boost, but 0.02 FPPM less per game with Graham off the floor. I suppose Ball is interesting on DK, as who is going to play him, when he’s not super far from Curry, and hundreds more than Fox and Paul who have the same ceiling. On FD where he’s closer in price the debate is much greater.

  • wmudude24

    @Pandamonious said...

    Ball – 114 implied total (8.8 DK, 7.8 FD) Golden Stare are 13th in defensive efficiency against PG, while 9th best in DVP. Golden state is mostly league average in 3 PT defensive categories, and 6th best in points allowed in the paint. They’re also allowing the 4th fewest assists per possession, and 6th fewest steals per possession. Ball is average 5 more FPPG at home, which might not be surprising as a rookie, even with a lack of fans. It’s worth nothing in a 460 minute sample size for the season Ball is AVG a 0.9% USG boost, but 0.02 FPPM less per game with Graham off the floor. I suppose Ball is interesting on DK, as who is going to play him, when he’s not super far from Curry, and hundreds more than Fox and Paul who have the same ceiling. On FD where he’s closer in price the debate is much greater.

    Nut sure about FD, but one of the DK “achievements” is rostering a rookie that goes for 50 DK. You get 300 crowns the first time and I think more in subsequent occurrences.

    I wonder if they take that into account when setting salaries.

  • Pandamonious

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    Morant – 111 implied total (7.4 FD, 7.7 DK) Suns are 6th in defensive efficiency against PG’s and 3rd best in DVP. Phoenix is stout defensively, allowing the 7th lowest 3P% allowed, 3rd fewest 3P attempts, and maybe more importantly 10th fewest points in the paint. On top of that the 8th fewest steals per possession and 3rd fewest assists per possession. Ja is still cheap for his ceiling though, and cheapest of the mid-tier. His USG is spiking over 30% in 3 of the last 4, and up to 38.5 last night. Also worth noting, Morant has avg. 40.2 FD PPG at home to just 28.1 FD PPG on the road this season. He also scored 40.6 FD points earlier this season against the Suns, for whatever that is worth.

  • Pandamonious

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    Wrapping the mid-tier up, Fox IMO is clearly the best combo of price, matchup, upside. He will also come at the highest ownership. My only concern is he hasn’t been in the best form since sitting out on 2/12 against the Magic. His production and USG are down noticeably from where he was. Certainly against the Bulls, who played last night as well, is a prime bounce back spot. Actually, seeing his production down, made me think of something…

    Does Corey Joseph being on the floor more impact Fox’ production? In a 199 minute sample size (granted a good portion of that coming recently maybe) Fox’ USG goes down 1.5%, and he averages 0.18 FPPM less. That’s pretty significant, and may be worth thinking about if the Kings are shorthanded again.

    On DK, I just can’t imagine playing Ball, unless playing 150 line ups, and even then it’s dicey. Morant will likely be low owned with upside in his price, but a tough spot, and Paul is in a pretty decent spot while producing well lately, but the B2B is worthy of some concern.

  • superjon

    My [hopefully] only hot take of the day.

    Bertans is a trap.

  • Wooden_Bones

    @Pandamonious said...

    On DK, I just can’t imagine playing Ball, unless playing 150 line ups, and even then it’s dicey. Morant will likely be low owned with upside in his price, but a tough spot, and Paul is in a pretty decent spot while producing well lately, but the B2B is worthy of some concern.

    Paul has played in all the B2Bs this year as far as I can tell, with no limits. I’m not concerned. Played 31 mins yesterday and the previous game was 3 days prior. Should be good to go for a full load.

  • Njsum1

    @jfitzgan said...

    Herro at $700 cheaper plus lower ownership seems a good pivot off of rozier assuming he’s chalky.

    Maybe on DK where Rozier is 7800 and Herro is 6300, yet I’d just go Rozier for 7k Over Herro for 6.3 on FD. Rozier is locked into a big role with Graham out.

    On FD, a decent pivot might be Gary Trent for 5500.

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