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  • Pandamonious

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  • Pandamonious

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    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    As for the mid-tier and lower at PG :

    Nunn doesn’t have the production, ceiling, or match up for me to warrant consideration.

    Coby White has struggled. If he’s going to be chalky, he’s probably a worthwhile fade, but if he’s somehow not, especially on FD, I don’t see how you don’t get exposure. Sitting on a roughly 115 total, Sacramento is 14th in defensive efficiency to PG’s, 10th worse in DVP. More importantly the Kings give up the 3rd highest 3P% allowed, on the 14th most attempts. Not to mention the 4th most assists per possession.

    As for the bargain bin, not a lot is jumping out to me.

    Neto has been getting 20+ minutes with Ish out and is in a good environment, but the ceiling isn’t really there.

    Simons is in the same good environment, but the production hasn’t been there.

    Caruso will get minutes, but the match up is ugly and the USG is poor for a PG.

    Satoransky sometimes gets a spike in minutes, and the range of outcomes is fairly wide here, but the potential is there. Maybe the most sensible of the group, especially as a hedge on White, who if White struggles continue, or the knee becomes an issue, he’s probably the most likely beneficiary.

    Melton I suppose would be the only other guy to even consider, and that’s only if Brooks is OUT again. He probably has the most upside of this entire cheap group, but also the toughest match up arguably.

  • celtics69

    @Pandamonious said...

    Morant – 111 implied total (7.4 FD, 7.7 DK) Suns are 6th in defensive efficiency against PG’s and 3rd best in DVP. Phoenix is stout defensively, allowing the 7th lowest 3P% allowed, 3rd fewest 3P attempts, and maybe more importantly 10th fewest points in the paint. On top of that the 8th fewest steals per possession and 3rd fewest assists per possession. Ja is still cheap for his ceiling though, and cheapest of the mid-tier. His USG is spiking over 30% in 3 of the last 4, and up to 38.5 last night. Also worth noting, Morant has avg. 40.2 FD PPG at home to just 28.1 FD PPG on the road this season. He also scored 40.6 FD points earlier this season against the Suns, for whatever that is worth.

    Lonzo put up a nice line last night vs the Suns. All in on JA.

  • jfitzgan

    @Njsum1 said...

    Maybe on DK where Rozier is 7800 and Herro is 6300, yet I’d just go Rozier for 7k Over Herro for 6.3 on FD. Rozier is locked into a big role with Graham out.

    On FD, a decent pivot might be Gary Trent for 5500.

    So is rozier’s recent outburst directly linked to simply graham being out or a combo of graham, Hayward and Washington out? Haven’t seen hornets play in a few weeks.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @celtics69 said...

    Lonzo put up a nice line last night vs the Suns. All in on JA.

    Seems like sound reasoning.

  • WhiteyJones8

    Do people still focus on value multipliers on FD? Clearly the number is not 5x (300) as that won’t even come close to cashing. Would think the number is closer to 6x which isn’t even that hard. I also subscribe to the theory that the multiplier matters more for the cheaper plays (raw points).

    You aren’t winning a tournament is you add simply getting 22.8 out of Robin Lopez for $3800. You want 30-35 out of the cheap options.

    On nights like last night of course you want 93.2 out of Embiid and 72.8 from ABC but the key to me is still finding the Jamal Murray type plays who go for 65.2 at $6500.

    That is of course much easier said than done and every slate is different.

    Tonight looks pretty wide open to me. The chalk value play I’m torn on right now is Bertrans because the thing he does best (score) is also not his most reliable asset this season.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @jfitzgan said...

    So is rozier’s recent outburst directly linked to simply graham being out or a combo of graham, Hayward and Washington out? Haven’t seen hornets play in a few weeks.

    Hard to say exactly. On the season Rozier only averages 0.05 more FPPG, which isn’t much. That doesn’t tell everything though.

    Rozier has been extremely efficient and certainly benefitted from Hayward, Washington being out and Graham severely limited the last 2 games. Playing 40 minutes also helps.

    Not at all saying Rozier is a bad play, or can’t produce another 40+ fantasy point game here, but the circumstances are different here with Hayward and Washington back. Ironically according to court IQ, Rozier produces more with Hayward AND Washington on the floor.

  • dgballer

    @Brendan239 said...

    Well, we watched a movie and then slept together. I need to get my shit together. I only won $17 too. Think I might go grab a coffee after the gym then do some cold-calling on some merchants for a couple of hours and collect my thoughts. On tonight, looks like you can just stack the last couple of games a few ways and call it a night.

  • IT4MVP

    Pretty stacked for a 5 game slate. I think on FD the question is at PF do you play Bertans with Roco also have to consider Crowder who is still too cheap here and has hit 30 FD points in 3 of his last 4 or 4 of 5. Or do you pay up for Bam. Tempting to pay down at both PF spots to jam in Dame and Beal with either Ball or Ja then midrange at C with Zeller. CP3 is balling but I’m not going there on a b2b for him
    Edit: forgot about Bjelica too

  • Njsum1

    @jfitzgan said...

    So is rozier’s recent outburst directly linked to simply graham being out or a combo of graham, Hayward and Washington out? Haven’t seen hornets play in a few weeks.

    Imo…FD is not giving you enough of a discount to play Herro in a 212 total game, over Rozier in a game with a 231 total. Also factor in minutes and usage, which also sway in Terry’s favor.

    As long as one of Hayward or Graham has been out, Rozier has been shooting a lot. Can’t predict whether the shot will fall, yet his usage and minutes should far exceed Herro. And a $700 discount doesn’t warrant a pivot, save to be contrarian, considering the usage and game environment.

    Of course it’s possible herro outperforms him, yet if I had to guess, I’d say maybe 15-25% of the time in this situation.

  • superjon

    @WhiteyJones8 said...

    Do people still focus on value multipliers on FD? Clearly the number is not 5x (300) as that won’t even come close to cashing. Would think the number is closer to 6x which isn’t even that hard. I also subscribe to the theory that the multiplier matters more for the cheaper plays (raw points).

    You aren’t winning a tournament is you add simply getting 22.8 out of Robin Lopez for $3800. You want 30-35 out of the cheap options.

    On nights like last night of course you want 93.2 out of Embiid and 72.8 from ABC but the key to me is still finding the Jamal Murray type plays who go for 65.2 at $6500.

    I typically like to focus on

    3500-4900 – 30 points

    5000-6900 – 40 points

    7000-8900 – 50 points

    9000-10900 – 55 points

    11000 and higher – 60 points

    So if I have a build that’s

    11000
    9300
    7800
    7500
    6300
    5400
    4800
    4300
    3500

    and they all hit their minimums, that would be 385. And sometimes players come up a little short, but you can hopefully make up for it when someone else exceeds expecations.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    The Bertans spot is really annoying.

    The match ups against HOU and DEN were actually really strong spots for him. Tonight is average to below average. The problem is he’s just so cheap on FD and the environment is nice enough and ownership will be so high, it’s hard to just say no too. It’s going to have to depend on Kings news I guess. I think I’d rather play Bjelica or Bagley than Bertans.

  • Njsum1

    @WhiteyJones8 said...

    Do people still focus on value multipliers on FD? Clearly the number is not 5x (300) as that won’t even come close to cashing. Would think the number is closer to 6x which isn’t even that hard. I also subscribe to the theory that the multiplier matters more for the cheaper plays (raw points).

    You aren’t winning a tournament is you add simply getting 22.8 out of Robin Lopez for $3800. You want 30-35 out of the cheap options.

    On nights like last night of course you want 93.2 out of Embiid and 72.8 from ABC but the key to me is still finding the Jamal Murray type plays who go for 65.2 at $6500.

    That is of course much easier said than done and every slate is different.

    Tonight looks pretty wide open to me. The chalk value play I’m torn on right now is Bertrans because the thing he does best (score) is also not his most reliable asset this season.

    5x + a number is how to look at it. The base multiplier is kinda irrelevant as you can use 4x + a number or 6x +a number.

    Yet 5x is smack in the middle and works best….imo

    Edit…like on DK I shoot for 5x+10 for all my players. Which is a score of 330, and hope they do better.

  • jfitzgan

    @Pandamonious said...

    Hard to say exactly. On the season Rozier only averages 0.05 more FPPG, which isn’t much. That doesn’t tell everything though.

    Rozier has been extremely efficient and certainly benefitted from Hayward, Washington being out and Graham severely limited the last 2 games. Playing 40 minutes also helps.

    Not at all saying Rozier is a bad play, or can’t produce another 40+ fantasy point game here, but the circumstances are different here with Hayward and Washington back. Ironically according to court IQ, Rozier produces more with Hayward AND Washington on the floor.

    I’m thinking increased minutes and usage due to the injuries explains a lot. Plus, like u said, insane efficiency. I smell a 28-32 point game from him tonight. If anyone gets projected ownership on him, please let me know. Thanks panda.

  • jfitzgan

    @Njsum1 said...

    Imo…FD is not giving you enough of a discount to play Herro in a 212 total game, over Rozier in a game with a 231 total. Also factor in minutes and usage, which also sway in Terry’s favor.

    As long as one of Hayward or Graham has been out, Rozier has been shooting a lot. Can’t predict whether the shot will fall, yet his usage and minutes should far exceed Herro. And a $700 discount doesn’t warrant a pivot, save to be contrarian, considering the usage and game environment.

    Of course it’s possible herro outperforms him, yet if I had to guess, I’d say maybe 15-25% of the time in this situation.

    Interesting.

  • jdtrey

    @factorial89 said...

    lakers coming off a bad loss on national tv.miami on 6th day of 7 day road trip.lebron loves to beat up his former team.

    Might make sense to pair LBJ and Jimmy tonight and hope for fireworks..

    Obviously the most recent games on here are from the playoffs but Jimmy tends to get up for Lebron

    Jimmy vs LBJ

  • Brendan239

    BTW, Superdraft IS fun and that guy last night said he won $2k. Tonight’s $15 is $6500 to 1st but there are 253/3100 entered and I bet it doesn’t crack $2k. And they pay out full w no rake.

    What’s your strategy? Mine is too pick players that I think can get to 70 on a great night and a couple of players that WILL hit 60

    The more I look at this slate my head spins. Ssoooo many options, even in the $5k range. Can legit 4 studs.

  • jfitzgan

    @jfitzgan said...

    Interesting.

    It seems Hayward has taken the biggest hit in the midst of these injuries. And rozier has skyrocketed. It puzzles me. Graham is out again. Now I’m changing my tune on rozier. Love to know his ownership. He’s let me down soooo many times.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @jdtrey said...

    Might make sense to pair LBJ and Jimmy tonight and hope for fireworks..

    Obviously the most recent games on here are from the playoffs but Jimmy tends to get up for Lebron

    Jimmy vs LBJ

    This is actually a pretty interesting way to be contrarian tonight, MAYBE.

    Pair LBJ/Butler at SF, and hope even if the game is low scoring they’re both so ball dominant they put up big games.

    Don’t miss with the highest end PG’s and pair Fox and White, and hope the game shoots out completely and both smash.

    Then fill out your line up some cheaper plays for WAS/POR, like Bertans, Trent, Covington, Kanter, and so on, instead of using Dame, getting some leverage on Dame while getting yourself exposed to the high total.

    Then filling out the rest however you see fit.

  • Njsum1

    @jfitzgan said...

    Now I’m changing my tune on rozier. Love to know his ownership. He’s let me down soooo many times

    Just don’t go all in on Rozier, and play some Herro as well. Herro’s not a bad play, he could definitely have a nice game.

    You can play them both. I just don’t like Herro over Rozier, doesn’t mean I don’t like and won’t be playing some Herro.

    Also Gary Trent is priced very nicely on FD.

  • Brendan239

    @Pandamonious said...

    This is actually a pretty interesting way to be contrarian tonight, MAYBE.

    Pair LBJ/Butler at SF, and hope even if the game is low scoring they’re both so ball dominant they put up big games.

    Don’t miss with the highest end PG’s and pair Fox and White, and hope the game shoots out completely and both smash.

    Then fill out your line up some cheaper plays for WAS/POR, like Bertans, Trent, Covington, Kanter, and so on, instead of using Dame, getting some leverage on Dame while getting yourself exposed to the high total.

    Then filling out the rest however you see fit.

    That’s how half of mine are right now. Love all Por and cheap PFs.

  • jfitzgan

    @Njsum1 said...

    Just don’t go all in on Rozier, and play some Herro as well. Herro’s not a total fade, he could definitely have a nice game.

    You can play them both. I just don’t like Herro over a Rozier, doesn’t mean I don’t like and won’t be playing some Herro.

    Also Gary Trent is priced very nicely on FD.

    Yes. I’ll never go all in on rozier. My 6am first cup of coffee build had herro and rozier. I always cheap mass enter and am considering a higher $$ single entry today, so I’m trying to think this all through. It’s been awhile since I’ve tried this.

  • Njsum1

    @jfitzgan said...

    Yes. I’ll never go all in on rozier. My 6am first cup of coffee build had herro and rozier. I always cheap mass enter and am considering a higher $$ single entry today, so I’m trying to think this all through. It’s been awhile since I’ve tried this.

    I normally play mostly on DK, yet FD is priced well on a bunch of players I like and not so much on DK. DK has guys priced correctly, (which I don’t like 😉). I’ll probably play more FD tonight.

    Only reason I looked at FD is cause you asked if you should play Herro or Rozier. Rozier is 7900 on DK and I’m still a little interested, yet Herro is 6300. So on DK, I see that as more of a reasonable fade on Rozier and Pivot to Herro.

    Also, Coby White is priced liberally on both sites, doesn’t happen often, yet he has upside at these prices.

  • tmarohl

    All I know is Jabari is playing in his home town tonight, and back to back against the team that drafted him tomorrow. If he doesn’t get a minute in these games with all the injuries the Kings have, something is seriously wrong :)

  • jfitzgan

    That he is. His price is lower than it’s been in awhile. Any idea why his minutes have drastically dropped in last 2 games?

  • theIrrigator

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    @Brendan239 said...

    BTW, Superdraft IS fun and that guy last night said he won $2k. Tonight’s $15 is $6500 to 1st but there are 253/3100 entered and I bet it doesn’t crack $2k. And they pay out full w no rake.

    What’s your strategy? Mine is too pick players that I think can get to 70 on a great night and a couple of players that WILL hit 60

    The more I look at this slate my head spins. Ssoooo many options, even in the $5k range. Can legit 4 studs.

    That Guy? I’m offended I know your whole life story and when you and your wife have sex but you cant even remember or use my name


    Lol

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