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  • JTAx33

    The payout on the $4 gpp on DK is crazy. No 2x min cash, and a hair over 4% to first place; top 15 get 10% of what first gets?? Have to square off with the 150 guys but I think it makes more sense to throw 20 in the $6 tonight

  • Ace15

    @Gadnuk said...

    this is a major thing today.

    The slate is too big, none of these guards have shown any upside, White has had flashes.but….I honestly don’t think you need to worry too much. Like others have said play Derozan is probably the bet bet. LMA has been out, you either play Lyles or don’t. The slate is soo biggg…

  • got9forya

    @Njsum1 said...

    Unless you primary play on FD, yesterday felt like free money if you caught the Milwaukee news before the 9pm games tipped off.

    Even if you swapped to some powell (as I did), and was 100%Pat C (as I was) Middleton was 50% owned. Divencenzo, high owned as well. It was wild, no doubt, yet there were so many paths to make money on late swap sites. People were cashing with multiple 0’s in their lineups. 🤷‍♂️

    Today will be significantly harder

    Thats the problem. All I play is FD. So those injuries killed me. I was heavy on Powell but he still satrted but was heavy on Middleton and Lopez SMH. But we shall see what today brings

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #91

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Njsum1 said...

    Unless you primary play on FD, yesterday felt like free money if you caught the Milwaukee news before the 9pm games tipped off.

    Even if you swapped to some powell (as I did), and was 100%Pat C (as I was) Middleton was 50% owned. Divencenzo, high owned as well. It was wild, no doubt, yet there were so many paths to make money on late swap sites. People were cashing with multiple 0’s in their lineups. 🤷‍♂️

    Today will be significantly harder

    Yesterday showed how much people rely on the optimizers and the projections that come with them. I know no one updated RG’s after the Bucks starting lineup was announced. They put them in the player pool but I had to manually remove Middleton and Lopez and adjust the mins and projections for Brown, XYZ, Pat C, RoLo, Mason, and D.J. Some of the Ownership numbers were crazy. Maybe it was just a coincidence but that is how I interpreted the situation and how it played out

  • Njsum1

    @got9forya said...

    Thats the problem. All I play is FD. So those injuries killed me. I was heavy on Powell but he still satrted but was heavy on Middleton and Lopez SMH. But we shall see what today brings

    Yeah, I feel for ya, and those who play FD and weren’t on the right side of variance.

    I used to be a big proponent of no late swap, yet honestly I can’t see not having it, the way things are these days.

    This is why, I generally make between 5-15 DK lineups per night, 1-3 Yahoo, and only 1 FD. I think the way to play FD is the way GaelicGirl does it, which is to only play the express slates, so she has all the news (a majority of the time) once the games tip.

  • Njsum1

    @JTAx33 said...

    The payout on the $4 gpp on DK is crazy. No 2x min cash, and a hair over 4% to first place; top 15 get 10% of what first gets?? Have to square off with the 150 guys but I think it makes more sense to throw 20 in the $6 tonight

    So let me get this straight, you’d rather compete with people putting in 150 lineups, in a GPP where min cash is also 1.5x, with a 1/3 of the total prize pool, and a 1/4 the amount of entries?

    I prefer min cash at 2x, yet the $4 is paying out top 25% and the structure at the top is nice and flat. IMO, it’s a solid payout structure.

  • Supersharpie

    @JTAx33 said...

    The payout on the $4 gpp on DK is crazy. No 2x min cash, and a hair over 4% to first place; top 15 get 10% of what first gets?? Have to square off with the 150 guys but I think it makes more sense to throw 20 in the $6 tonight

    I prefer the flatter payout. This is how GPPs were structured up until about five years ago. I focus on the payouts for the Top 1% and Top 0.1%, because let’s face it…most of us are NEVER going to take down a large field GPP. In this case it is 7.5x and 50x.

    By comparison, the big millionaire maker PGA contest is paying out 2.5x and 15x.

  • JTAx33

    @Njsum1 said...

    So let me get this straight, you’d rather compete with people putting in 150 lineups, in a GPP where min cash is also 1.5x, with a 1/3 of the total prize pool, and a 1/4 the amount of entries?

    I prefer min cash at 2x, yet the $4 is paying out top 25% and the structure at the top is nice and flat. IMO, it’s a solid payout structure.

    The 150 doesn’t bother me as much; it’s still the same amount of entries. Yeah the Burrito Brothers are sharper than the 20-max players, but not much difference in cost, double the grand prize, and 1/5 of the field? Sounds good to me

  • JTAx33

    @Supersharpie said...

    I prefer the flatter payout. This is how GPPs were structured up until about five years ago. I focus on the payouts for the Top 1% and Top 0.1%, because let’s face it…most of us are NEVER going to take down a large field GPP. In this case it is 7.5x and 50x.

    By comparison, the big millionaire maker PGA contest is paying out 2.5x and 15x.

    I don’t want to beat 35,000 entries and only bink for $5k; maybe that’s greedy of me. I can get behind it if its 2x min cash I guess, but playing the lottery when there’s only 4% up top sounds crazy to me.

  • monarch

    I like RJ Barrett here. Got to think the Rockets score like 140 points and much should flow through Harden. Maybe make Harden or RWB builds vs a team that bleeds points to everyone. Run it back with some Okogies, McGlaughlins and Culvers because the Rockets are horrible defensively and one of those will pay off their salary.

  • JTAx33

    @monarch said...

    I like RJ Barrett here. Got to think the Rockets score like 140 points and much should flow through Harden. Maybe make Harden or RWB builds vs a team that bleeds points to everyone. Run it back with some Okogies, McGlaughlins and Culvers because the Rockets are horrible defensively and one of those will pay off their salary.

    Do we finally get DLo day?

  • bangthedrummond

    @Njsum1 said...

    Yeah, I feel for ya, and those who play FD and weren’t on the right side of variance.

    Definitely a strange one last night as I went above min-cash with PJ Washington in my lu. I’ll take it.

    What the heck are we doing with the Wolves/Rockets tonight? I want to play Rubio and Lillard but this game has me perplexed. Ehh, it’s too early.

  • monarch

    Drummond also kills Wendell Carter Jr. He is not priced anywhere near his ceiling

  • monarch

    And even though the matchup is not great…DAJ is priced way too low for his current role on the Nets. And he kills Javale McGee https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/deandre-jordan-dk-game-log-vs-javale-mcgee

    He has double-doubled in eight of the last nine times he has faced JaVale McGee. Also his ownership might be lower because his first time in his new role took place over the weekend when a lot of people don’t play or pay attention. They might be late to the trend.

  • Njsum1

    @JTAx33 said...

    The 150 doesn’t bother me as much; it’s still the same amount of entries. Yeah the Burrito Brothers are sharper than the 20-max players, but not much difference in cost, double the grand prize, and 1/5 of the field? Sounds good to me

    Well if It’s a forgone conclusion that you’re going to bink it…..then what else can I say? 🤷‍♂️😁
    Except……..
    The only thing bigger is the Grand prize. Say on the off chance you don’t bink it, yet one of your lineups is excellently crafted and finishes 10th. In the $4 you win $750, and in the $6 you only win $100.

    Cashing and winning scores will also likely be higher in the $6 because of the entry limit.

    I can tell by your response, that you’re gonna do what you want. And more power to ya.

    I’m really just typing this for other players who are not 150 max, and may be deciding between the 2 GPP’s, that between the 2 options the $4 is where they should put their money.

  • JTAx33

    @Njsum1 said...

    Well if It’s a forgone conclusion that you’re going to bink it…..then what else can I say? 🤷‍♂️😁
    Except……..
    The only thing bigger is the Grand prize. Say on the off chance you don’t bink it, yet one of your lineups is excellently crafted and finishes 10th. In the $4 you win $750, and in the $6 you only win $100.

    Cashing and winning scores will also likely be higher in the $6 because of the entry limit.

    I can tell by your response, that you’re gonna do what you want. And more power to ya.

    I’m really just typing this for other players who are not 150 max, explaining that between the 2 options the $4 is where they should put their money.

    No I totally get where you’re coming from. But you also have to consider that 10th in the $6 likely finishes worse than 10th in the $4 given that there’s almost 5x as many entries over there. That lineup could *easily * finish in 30th or worse (which is still a better outcome). $4 probably is slightly better EV, but we’re not grinding GPP’s for marginal EV gains, right?

  • Gadnuk

    I dont understand the discussion of the $4 vs the $6 on DK today. Would much rather play the $4 if I wasn’t doing 150 entries in both mini-maxes. I usually throw my hat in the $4 anyway cause it is usually a great contest at 20 entries max. Just my opinion. No reason to compete against 150 lineups that can cover much more than you can on a 9 game slate.

  • JTAx33

    @Gadnuk said...

    I dont understand the discussion of the $4 vs the $6 on DK today. Would much rather play the $4 if I wasn’t doing 150 entries in both mini-maxes. I usually throw my hat in the $4 anyway cause it is usually a great contest at 20 entries max. Just my opinion. No reason to compete against 150 lineups that can cover much more than you can on a 9 game slate.

    I’m curious to see what the average difference in winning score is. Obviously I’d easily prefer if it were 20-max, but the field being 1/5 of the size has to make a difference here, right?
    4% top payout just sounds low for having the stars align. Ultimately it’s only going to be one person that gets hurt by it, but I feel like the point of GPP’s is to give yourself the best chance at a big payout right? Imo given tonight’s structure, that’s in the $6. I almost exclusively max the $3/$4 when I play GPP

  • JTAx33

    Also, has it been that flat up top all season? I’ve only been back for a week or so. Moved and started a new job which was a pretty big time commitment for a while.

  • Njsum1

    @JTAx33 said...

    No I totally get where you’re coming from. But you also have to consider that 10th in the $6 likely finishes worse than 10th in the $4 given that there’s almost 5x as many entries over there. That lineup could *easily * finish in 30th or worse (which is still a better outcome). $4 probably is slightly better EV, but we’re not grinding GPP’s for marginal EV gains, right?

    Ah, gentleman’s wager then. I’ll say that score for 10th in the $6 will be within 2 points of the score for 10th in the $4. Not sure which one will be higher.

    My contention Is that although there are 5x more entries, there’s 7x more entries allowed per player in the $6 which will bridge that gap. Right or wrong, I’ll post about it later tonight.

  • Gadnuk

    @JTAx33 said...

    Also, has it been that flat up top all season? I’ve only been back for a week or so. Moved and started a new job which was a pretty big time commitment for a while.

    Yea the $4 has been pretty flat up top for most of the season.

  • JTAx33

    @Njsum1 said...

    Ah, gentleman’s wager then. I’ll say that score for 10th in the $6 will be within 2 points of the score for 10th in the $4. Not sure which one will be higher.

    My contention Is that although there are 5x more entries, there’s 7x more entries allowed per player in the $6 which will bridge that gap. Right or wrong, I’ll post about it later tonight.

    It’s certainly possible; I’m very curious as to what the difference will be, very valuable information in the long-run. There’s definitely a good chance that I’m wrong here, which is why I wanted to have a discussion about it. I just have a hard time getting behind the idea of playing a 35,000 person lottery with 4.3% up top, no matter how small my odds of finishing up-top are

  • dominicanpapi

    Yesterday was rough, but today is a new day. I’m skimming through the positions on FD and this is what I’ve come up with so far:

    C – I really like Drummond tonight assuming he plays. If we get shenanigans, I like Mitchell Robinson vs. the Wizards. I completely forgot about Aron Baynes, he’s probably my top center play now that I think about it.

    PF – Unclear where I stand at the moment. If Drummond and/or Thompson are out, I think you can stack Love and Nance on here. KP in play if Luka is out. Davis would be my top option if Lebron is out. Paschall at 5K is not a bad price either.

    SF – This will be rough assuming Lebron is out. Warren is a safe cash play that will give you 30-35 fantasy points. If Lebron is out, I can see double punting and playing guys like Ariza, Osman, and Porter.

    SG – DDR, Booker, Harden, Beasley all top plays. But it’s dependent on Lebron news obviously (because I would play Lebron in this case, and probably would play 1 of DDR/Booker and then a lower cost player).

    PG – Like Russ at the top end, Luka too if he’s in but I really like the mid-range plays here: Rubio, Payton, Coby White, and White/Fultz as a value play.

    Short and sweet: for me, the Lebron news is everything b/c it will dictate where I go at like 3 different positions.

  • gaelicgirl

    @Njsum1 said...

    I think the way to play FD is the way GaelicGirl does it, which is to only play the express slates, so she has all the news (a majority of the time) once the games tip.


    It only makes sense, with no late swap…less reward, but far less risk

  • Njsum1

    @JTAx33 said...

    I just have a hard time getting behind the idea of playing a 35,000 person lottery with 4.3% up top

    Personally, I don’t consider anything 20 max where where 5% goes up top with a flat structure a lottery, regardless of the amount of entries. Actually find it to be a good structure to grow a bankroll, if you’re trying to grow a bankroll through GPP play only.

    Imo…the amount of entries has nothing with what I consider to be a lottery. Like the $1 in NFL has 250,000 entries, yet I don’t consider it to be a lottery. As only 10% goes to first.

    What is a lottery? It’s a game where almost all of the money in the prize pool goes to the person who wins it. IMO, anything that is above 25%-ish getting paid to first is a lottery. Which actually makes the $6 more of a lottery than the $4…IMO

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