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  • Pandamonious

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  • tigerblu

    Appreciate all the insight, I will definitely use this while setting my lineup for tonight. I think my problem for the first couple of weeks was I was getting sucked in to selecting those mid-range salary players that all looked good on paper balance-wise and had the potential to all fire off on any given night, but I was playing too safe and I guess predictable (probably how most new/uneducated DFS players do). I have been using FanDuel and last night on the 2 game slate GPP, I finally cashed in on several lineups for $7, $10, and $87. I took more risk on lower salary players mixed with my two “anchor” players in Val & Morant. I wish there was a way to label or name my lineups bc when you start entering over 10+ lineups, its gets confusing on identifying which were your most successful plays.

    Anyways, thank you for the all your help and GL tonight!

  • factorial89

    advice to the new poster-avoid all the nba podcasts on youtube.i quit doing so 2 months ago and am cashing around 40% better.

  • thedkexperience

    @tigerblu said...

    Appreciate all the insight, I will definitely use this while setting my lineup for tonight. I think my problem for the first couple of weeks was I was getting sucked in to selecting those mid-range salary players that all looked good on paper balance-wise and had the potential to all fire off on any given night, but I was playing too safe and I guess predictable (probably how most new/uneducated DFS players do). I have been using FanDuel and last night on the 2 game slate GPP, I finally cashed in on several lineups for $7, $10, and $87. I took more risk on lower salary players mixed with my two “anchor” players in Val & Morant. I wish there was a way to label or name my lineups bc when you start entering over 10+ lineups, its gets confusing on identifying which were your most successful plays.

    Anyways, thank you for the all your help and GL tonight!

    Since you’re new I’ll give you the best free tip you can get.

    Walk before you run.

    Single entry tournaments have a lower price of entry and will allow you to build up experience before you go with both feet into a multi-entry.

    I’ve personally been playing DFS since about 2012 or so. I’ve also been playing fantasy sports since 1998 and been watching sports since the early 80s. It took me until 3-4 years ago to start consistently turning a profit in DFS. Game selection is vital.

    You want to avoid entering multi entry tournaments you can’t max out. Try and focus on one great lineup or a 3 max. If you lose tonight so be it. At least you didn’t blow through your whole bankroll. There is always another game tomorrow.

    This way when you fail … I’m sorry to tell you this but EVERYONE FAILS for stretches … you won’t have to retire from DFS thinking what might have been.

    So yeah, game selection. Get great at it. Then worry about winning GPPs.

  • tigerblu

    @thedkexperience said...

    Basketball is my weakest sport but your questions are pretty general so I can help you out.

    1 – Not bad at all. I mean don’t get ridiculous and try to win a GPP with 5,000 left on the table but anything under 500 is nothing and it’s often better for lineup variance to leave something on the table, even if it’s just 100. There are quite a few times a year in every sport where the pricing is off on a player for various reasons. One common one will be a player returning from injury earlier than expected so you can find an 8000 player priced at 6500 for a day or two. Anyway, just last night I took 42nd out of 1960 in the $12 single entry and I left 900 on the table.

    2 – every slate is different. This is a bit of a cop out answer but there you go. The decision to go with or fade ownership percentages is an enormous one that needs to be answered by yourself every day. Commonly in cash games you want high ownership and in GPPs you want low ownership IN A FEW PLACES. I put that in all caps because having low owned players at every position is usually folly in basketball. It can work in some sports but last night it was hard to fade all of Luka, Russ and Beal. The winner in my GPP took just Luka at 61.84%. At the end of the day you have to spend your money somewhere and it’s silly to avoid all the chalk. However, to circle back, last night was a 2 game slate so tonight is a completely different story.

    3 – See answer 2. This is an even more slate specific question. Every sport has days where balanced wins and where stars and scrubs win.

    So you brought up Cash tourneys vs GPP tourneys, tell me if this is the right way to think about this. With Cash tourneys or 50/50 tourneys, I want to select players that are considered chalk plays and ownership % is high, so I can essentially stay with the herd and with GPP tourneys, I want to select 2-3 players that are considered low ownership/high potential mixed in with chalk players + 1-2 anchor star player/top salary.

    I am starting to see each night has so many variables that plays into the success or failure of a lineup, so there’s no exact science to give you a winner each and every day. But, I just want to get to where I am giving myself a fighting chance on nights. What would you say the average amount of lineups are people entering into these GPPS? I have been doing about 10 different lineups in the big GPP tourney $4 per lineup. Usually, it gets up to 250,000 entries.

  • tigerblu

    @thedkexperience said...

    Since you’re new I’ll give you the best free tip you can get.

    Walk before you run.

    Single entry tournaments have a lower price of entry and will allow you to build up experience before you go with both feet into a multi-entry.

    I’ve personally been playing DFS since about 2012 or so. I’ve also been playing fantasy sports since 1998 and been watching sports since the early 80s. It took me until 3-4 years ago to start consistently turning a profit in DFS. Game selection is vital.

    You want to avoid entering multi entry tournaments you can’t max out. Try and focus on one great lineup or a 3 max. If you lose tonight so be it. At least you didn’t blow through your whole bankroll. There is always another game tomorrow.

    This way when you fail … I’m sorry to tell you this but EVERYONE FAILS for stretches … you won’t have to retire from DFS thinking what might have been.

    So yeah, game selection. Get great at it. Then worry about winning GPPs.

    Appreciate the wisdom, I could definitely see how easy it is to drain an account fast with these multi-entries tourneys. Nothing worse than throwing out 10-20 lineups and not cashing on any. Money can go real quick!

    GPPS are fun just bc how competitive they are and of course the big payouts near the top, but I really have been focusing more on 50/50 and Snake drafts. Also, ever since I started reading all about the player projections on all these fantasy sites, I have used that info to cash in by playing Alt Player Prop Parlays. I’ve been killing it with those lately and really funding my fantasy trials/errors by winning on those alone.

    GL tonight and thanks again!

  • thedkexperience

    @tigerblu said...

    So you brought up Cash tourneys vs GPP tourneys, tell me if this is the right way to think about this. With Cash tourneys or 50/50 tourneys, I want to select players that are considered chalk plays and ownership % is high, so I can essentially stay with the herd and with GPP tourneys, I want to select 2-3 players that are considered low ownership/high potential mixed in with chalk players + 1-2 anchor star player/top salary.

    I am starting to see each night has so many variables that plays into the success or failure of a lineup, so there’s no exact science to give you a winner each and every day. But, I just want to get to where I am giving myself a fighting chance on nights. What would you say the average amount of lineups are people entering into these GPPS? I have been doing about 10 different lineups in the big GPP tourney $4 per lineup. Usually, it gets up to 250,000 entries.

    Your first paragraph is 100% the correct way to think about it with one caveat.

    What you described is the correct DFS meta from about 2019 and before. For many reasons the cash line has crept up the last few years across all sports in 50/50s to very near the cash line in GPPs. The reason for this is the massive amount of pay for lineup groups who will all play the same people in cash and the fact that many lineups in GPPs are dead on arrival trash because they are risking last place to get first.

    But, in general, your thought process is absolutely by the book there.

    As for the second one, a guy like @pandamonious would be better to answer that question. I avoid multi entry games like the plague in most sports. I know this limits my upside but I’m not a “spreadsheet guy”. Anything more than 20 lineups I simply cannot mentally manage.

    But what I am sure of is that if you were to get into a fight with 250,000 possible outcomes would your rather be the person with 1 bullet or 150?

    Let me use Awesemo as an example. In every way shape and form he’s better at DFS than I am. Considering he’s arguably the best player in the world, he should be. But I know that if I am going to have a great night part of it will include beating pros like him. So I specialize in single entry tournaments. I make those guys fight on my turf, not theirs. This is a game of small edges. The biggest edge one can have is an ungodly amount of money to spam 150 lineups. Don’t let the pros have this edge, especially while you learn.

    On a side note I think most people probably need to play for about 4 years to truly grasp what is needed to compete. No different than going to college to learn a craft.

    Edit – forgot to mention that I retired from cash games about a year ago. Not looking back. 50/50s were a massive drain on my bankroll no different than minimum entering multiple entry tournaments.

  • Njsum1

    @factorial89 said...

    advice to the new poster-avoid all the nba podcasts on youtube.i quit doing so 2 months ago and am cashing around 40% better.

    I could have told you that 4 years ago.

    If you want your lineups to be naturally contrarian, don’t listen to any advice. Just make your own lineups.

  • thedkexperience

    @Njsum1 said...

    I could have told you that 4 years ago.

    If you want your lineups to be naturally contrarian, don’t listen to any advice. Just make your own lineups.

    In most cases I listen to pods the day after to see where my thinking was different.

    Actually unless I need a refresher – like now – I don’t even read the forums until after my lineup is placed.

  • tigerblu

    @Njsum1 said...

    I could have told you that 4 years ago.

    If you want your lineups to be naturally contrarian, don’t listen to any advice. Just make your own lineups.

    I still look at the players these sites and podcasts are saying are must-plays, but now instead of just throwing them in my lineups, I am comparing them to ownership % and then taking a stand against some of the high owned popular plays. I will still select a little chalk throughout my lineups, but avoid playing these highly owned value plays coupled with highly owned star players.

  • bdf

    Got at least one ticket to Claxtown.

  • jcrebs

    delete

  • Brendan239

    Rank these 5 Centers given their price, ownership and ceiling: Plumlee $6,200 (vs Cha), Carter $5300 (vs Embidless Phi), Kelly O $4500 (vs Orl), Patton $4000 (vs Sac), Dwight $3800 (vs Chi). All of these Centers can 9x as easily as they can 5x. How is everyone going about this position today? I mean, can Dwight let us down? He’ll prob be 60% owned.

  • MickyD10970

    • 582

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    Looking for a low priced forward on DK. Thoughts on Layman, Bogdonavich, or I am looking at Porter. Any Houston fans out there think Porter gets 20 minutes tonight? I don’t see the reason to play Sterling Brown as they know what they have there. Porter tore up the junior league.

  • tmarohl

    @Brendan239 said...

    Rank these 5 Centers given their price, ownership and ceiling: Plumlee $6,200 (vs Cha), Carter $5300 (vs Embidless Phi), Kelly O $4500 (vs Orl), Patton $4000 (vs Sac), Dwight $3800 (vs Chi). All of these Centers can 9x as easily as they can 5x. How is everyone going about this position today? I mean, can Dwight let us down? He’ll prob be 60% owned.

    1 Kelly O
    2 Patton
    3 Howard
    4 Carter
    5 Plumlee

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #92

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    @Brendan239 said...

    Rank these 5 Centers given their price, ownership and ceiling: Plumlee $6,200 (vs Cha), Carter $5300 (vs Embidless Phi), Kelly O $4500 (vs Orl), Patton $4000 (vs Sac), Dwight $3800 (vs Chi). All of these Centers can 9x as easily as they can 5x. How is everyone going about this position today? I mean, can Dwight let us down? He’ll prob be 60% owned.

    Dwight, Patton, Plumlee, Kelly O, Carter. I think.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #92

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    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @tmarohl said...

    1 Kelly O
    2 Patton
    3 Howard
    4 Carter
    5 Plumlee

    Where would you put BroLo on that list? He still got 5 block games in him?

  • axman15

    Irving the type of guy to put in a bit of extra effort agains the Celtics tonight?

  • Brendan239

    @Pandamonious said...

    Where would you put BroLo on that list? He still got 5 block games in him?

    Thought about him but these are guys that can legit 9x today and I don’t think BroLo’s gone over 35 FD points this year and he’s $4800

  • Brendan239

    @axman15 said...

    Irving the type of guy to put in a bit of extra effort agains the Celtics tonight?

    I think so and unfortunately it has me like Harden less. I’m taking 10-15 points off of what I liked Harden to get just for that fact.

  • tmarohl

    @Pandamonious said...

    Where would you put BroLo on that list? He still got 5 block games in him?

    About 7th.
    I like Deandre Jordan for 6th
    If it was my list, I would not have Plumlee on it at all.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #92

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    @tmarohl said...

    About 7th.
    I like Deandre Jordan for 6th
    If it was my list, I would not have Plumlee on it at all.

    Yeah, I haven’t knocked Plum out of my pool yet, but not sure how much I’ll have. Probably Wright news dependent. Too many damn people questionable tonight, and all 130 did was add Ross to the list. Hard to really establish a lot yet.

  • tmarohl

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, I haven’t knocked Plum out of my pool yet, but not sure how much I’ll have. Probably Wright news dependent. Too many damn people questionable tonight, and all 130 did was add Ross to the list. Hard to really establish a lot yet.

    Grant and Wright were out when Plumdog was going off a few weeks ago.

  • Njsum1

    @thedkexperience said...

    In most cases I listen to pods the day after to see where my thinking was different

    I used to do that when I cared more….now I’m just playing for fun, hoping to bink one

  • bazerko

    Is there a forum contest tonight?

  • Njsum1

    @tigerblu said...

    I still look at the players these sites and podcasts are saying are must-plays, but now instead of just throwing them in my lineups, I am comparing them to ownership % and then taking a stand against some of the high owned popular plays. I will still select a little chalk throughout my lineups, but avoid playing these highly owned value plays coupled with highly owned star players.

    Yeah, you got a mix it up, considering. Nothing wrong with chalk if you like the chalk.

    I’ll just look at projections to make sure I’m not missing any obvious value, then I’ll decide what to do.

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