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  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #62

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    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:00 PM EST : Sacramento ( 3 ) at Charlotte ( -3 ) — T: 239
    7:00 PM EST : Milwaukee ( -8.5 ) at Washington ( 8.5 ) — T: 241
    8:00 PM EST : San Antonio ( -2.5 ) at Detroit ( 2.5) — T: 215.5
    8:00 PM EST : New York ( 8 ) at Brooklyn ( -8 ) — T: 224
    9:00 PM EST : Indiana ( 5 ) at Denver ( -5 ) — T: 224
    9:00 PM EST : LA Clippers ( -1.5 ) at Dallas ( 1.5 ) — T: 227
    10:00 PM EST : Memphis ( 6.5 ) at Phoenix ( -6.5 ) — T: 228
    10:30 PM EST : LA Lakers ( -2.5 ) at Golden State ( 2.5 ) — T: 222.5

    RG FORUM DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • tmarohl

    Looks like a stack the first two games kind of night.

  • zline34

    Why does DET have 6 point guards? I wish I could manage a team. I’d put my 10 G-Leaguer roster against most NBA rosters and I’m confident I’d win.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Last night’s Clippers game tilted me to no end.

    So, stayed up all night doing a non scientific non peer reviewed study on the front end of a back to back with surprising results.

    Home teams on the front end of a B2B score almost 2% less of their average AND give up over 2% more to their opponents.
    Road teams on the front end of a B2B score about 1% less than their average, but hold the home opponent to almost 2% less than their average.

    So, for tonight for example, we have two teams playing on the road on the front end of a B2B. The NYK and the LAL. As an added bonus, the LAL are playing the Warriors who are on the back end of a B2B.

    Both the Knicks and the Lakers should score about 0.5% less than their normal road average and the Knicks opponent, Brooklyn, should score about 1% more than their average. Meanwhile, the Warriors on a B2B should already score about 2% less than their home average and then ANOTHER 1% less than their home average with the Lakers being on the front end of a B2B on the road.

    Add in the fact that teams on the back end of a back to back get blown out over 30% more than normal, the Lakers should be right around a 6 to 7 point favorite. A normal LAL/GSW game should be -2 to the Lakers and a 222 O/U. I’m saying that without going into the projections, The Lakers should be a 6-7 point favorite with a 219 O/U. 113-106 Lakers is my rough projection off the top of my head and I’ll be jumping on the Lakers winning by 13.5 for +420.

    But wait, there’s more.

    Extreme blowouts (25+ margin of victories) happen a whopping 44% more often with teams playing the front end of a B2B than the average game and 52% more often when the team on the front end of a B2B is on the road.

    So yeah, what’s all this mean?

    1 out of every 12 NBA games are decided by 25 points or more.
    If the road team is on the front end of a B2B, that increases to 1 out of 8!
    We already know a team on the back end of a B2B performs worse than normal.
    The Lakers to cover a 23.5 point spread is currently 14 to 1.

    For DFS, I already know I’ll be dropping my ownership of any starters in this game by about 12%. If I have Lebron at 30%, I’m manually knocking him down to 25%. You know what a drop of just 5% on PG-13, Kawhi, and Ibaka would have done for me last night? Me neither, but it definitely would have improved my lineups. I also know that had I forced a Luke Kennard, a Jaxson Hayes, or a Kira Lewis into my lineups at just a 3% rate, I would have been even better off. It won’t take much to force Mannion, Poole, and THT into 3% of my lineups. Sure, 9% of my lineups could be drawing dead, but also 9% of my lineups have a 13% shot at having massive value AND leverage plays. I’ll take my chances.

    See you in 8 hours. I’m heading to place a wager on the Lakers covering 23.5.

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #56

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I’ll just play the good value we get instead of hoping the LA Lebron’s are somehow able to blowout the Warriors in GS by 25

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @theIrrigator said...

    I’ll just play the good value we get instead of hoping the LA Lebron’s are somehow able to blowout the Warriors in GS by 25

    I will too in 90% of my lineups.

    I’m not saying if you play less than 30 lineups to concern yourself with this.
    I AM saying that if you play 30 lineups, having one with THT, Nico, or Poole is wise as the risk/reward is just too great.

    The more important thing is that Vegas has the Lakers as a 14-1 shot of winning by 24+ whereas I’m showing it to be at worst 8-1 and perhaps 6-1. An EV of +175.

  • zeeshan2

    Really like Wiggins, Jrue and Brodgdon on DK, Giannis, Randle, Levert, Holmes, Mikal Bridges, and Luka tonight

  • axman15

    First look, seems to be a lot of good mid range options tonight. Draymond at his lowest price in over a month (for no apparent reason) will find his way into a lot of my lineups

  • dominicanpapi

    Initial thought was to pay down at shooting guard tonight. Quickley and LeVert, if Rozier is out, I really like Graham too.

  • Njsum1

    @Yukerboy said...

    I’m not saying if you play less than 30 lineups to concern yourself with this.

    Idk…all the money is up top, I’ll play some questionable plays for ownership with limited lineups…sometimes 🤷‍♂️

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #62

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    @Njsum1 said...

    Idk…all the money is up top, I’ll play some questionable plays for ownership with limited lineups…sometimes 🤷‍♂️

    Yeah, nothing wrong with putting 1 really dicey off the radar play in your line up. What’s the worst that could happen? Especially if the player has a floor, which guys like Poole and THT have. Especially also on FD where you have 9 spots to fill and usually you can finish pretty high still with one guy doing just “OK.” Of course I wouldn’t recommend doing it with a center there. That’s kind of the point of cores, right? You can’t say oh this guy ruined my line up with player A, B, C, D, E, because you have multiple line ups with those players already.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, nothing wrong with putting 1 really dicey off the radar play in your line up. What’s the worst that could happen? Especially if the player has a floor, which guys like Poole and THT have. Especially also on FD where you have 9 spots to fill and usually you can finish pretty high still with one guy doing just “OK.” Of course I wouldn’t recommend doing it with a center there. That’s kind of the point of cores, right? You can’t say oh this guy ruined my line up with player A, B, C, D, E, because you have multiple line ups with those players already.

    Plus good plays seem like they’re busting more frequently, so all plays carry more risk then years past

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, nothing wrong with putting 1 really dicey off the radar play in your line up. What’s the worst that could happen? Especially if the player has a floor, which guys like Poole and THT have. Especially also on FD where you have 9 spots to fill and usually you can finish pretty high still with one guy doing just “OK.” Of course I wouldn’t recommend doing it with a center there. That’s kind of the point of cores, right? You can’t say oh this guy ruined my line up with player A, B, C, D, E, because you have multiple line ups with those players already.

    Exactly.

    THT won’t win you a GPP.
    However, your THT+Randle could beat my Porzingis+Quickley and that’s all it takes.

  • fleishmo6

    Just made a FD line up with Joker, LBJ and Giannis, actually looks decent
    What could go wrong lol
    Good luck guys

  • monarch

    Derrick White 5200 DK is a lock for me. Spurs 19-16 coming off a b2b thumping gets a winnable game here before road games remaining at CHI, CLE, MIL. They kinda need this one to keep their head above water and the Pistons are missing a lot of guys and he should get matched up a lot with you score/I score Josh Jackson.

    Also his minutes (25) yesterday are misleading. He was on his way to 32 or 33 before the game blew out, didn’t see the fourth quarter.

  • miggs6876

    @dominicanpapi said...

    Initial thought was to pay down at shooting guard tonight. Quickley and LeVert, if Rozier is out, I really like Graham too.

    My initial look has punts of Levert at 4.1k Graham 4.5k, and DiVencenzo at 4.5k.

  • Durantdagoat

    @monarch said...

    Derrick White 5200 DK is a lock for me. Spurs 19-16 coming off a b2b thumping gets a winnable game here before road games remaining at CHI, CLE, MIL. They kinda need this one to keep their head above water and the Pistons are missing a lot of guys and he should get matched up a lot with you score/I score Josh Jackson.

    Also his minutes (25) yesterday are misleading. He was on his way to 32 or 33 before the game blew out, didn’t see the fourth quarter.

    Depending if DeRozan is back.. I really like a lot of guys in the 3000-4700k range like mcgruder and burk I think the only 2 studs I’ll be playing tonight is luka and Randle with some Holmes and Portis

  • tmarohl

    FantasyLabs NBA
    FantasyLabsNBA · 6m Status note: "(player-popup #keita-bates-diop)Keita Bates-Diop":/players/keita-bates-diop-409175 (hamstring) listed out Monday. FantasyLabs NBA FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    6m
    Status note: Austin Rivers (personal) listed out Monday.
    FantasyLabs NBA
    @FantasyLabsNBA
    ·
    7m
    DeMar DeRozan (personal) listed out Monday.

  • Tweety888

    @monarch said...

    Derrick White 5200 DK is a lock for me. Spurs 19-16 coming off a b2b thumping gets a winnable game here before road games remaining at CHI, CLE, MIL. They kinda need this one to keep their head above water and the Pistons are missing a lot of guys and he should get matched up a lot with you score/I score Josh Jackson.

    Also his minutes (25) yesterday are misleading. He was on his way to 32 or 33 before the game blew out, didn’t see the fourth quarter.

    I’ve been on White since he came back…not jumping off now. If he played full minutes yesterday, I’d be a little concerned with B2B

  • BBWC_10

    I learned years ago don’t roster Spurs unless it is a 2/3 game slate. It’s called getting POPPED. Rule #1 for DFS players.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BBWC_10 said...

    I learned years ago don’t roster Spurs unless it is a 2/3 game slate. It’s called getting POPPED. Rule #1 for DFS players.

    I’m more afraid of getting Lued.

  • Tweety888

    @BBWC_10 said...

    I learned years ago don’t roster Spurs unless it is a 2/3 game slate. It’s called getting POPPED. Rule #1 for DFS players.

    I’m a glutton for punishment…I think Poeltl is in a good spot. Centers against Detroit have been good

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #62

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    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    Anyone know how to determine if Crowder is going to get 30 minutes or 20 minutes?

    Also how many times will Marcus Morris try to take out Luka’s ankles?

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #62

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    @Yukerboy said...

    I’m more afraid of getting Lued.

    I’m afraid of getting NBA DFS’d.

  • Tweety888

    @Pandamonious said...

    Anyone know how to determine if Crowder is going to get 30 minutes or 20 minutes?

    Also how many times will Marcus Morris try to take out Luka’s ankles?

    If I play him, 20…if not, 30. Not in my lineups ATM

  • 866

    Burks-Fever tonight feel like. Loving Curry/DRAY vs Laker. Run back w LeBron. Maybe a few Kooz-Ma’s. & Pope is only 3400. Ball/Fox.. Holmes.. & Graham only 4700 now. Lotta SAC/CHA. Love Saric and M Morris SR today as well. 4200/3900 D K. Gotta have some ZU also, Ibaka left gm yesterday with injury. Like Pee-Gee only 8200 vs DAL. Lotta good plays today. Doncic should crush also.

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