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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    7:30 PM EST : Utah ( -4 ) at Boston ( 4 ) — T: 229
    8:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 11 ) at Miami ( -11 ) — T: 207
    8:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( -9.5 ) at Houston ( 9.5 ) — T: 225.5
    8:00 PM EST : New York ( 7 ) at Philadelphia ( -7 ) — T: 218.5
    9:00 PM EST : Oklahoma City ( 6.5 ) at Chicago ( -6.5 ) — T: 225.5
    10:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 1.5 ) at Portland ( -1.5 ) — T: 238.5
    10:30 PM EST : Minnesota( 8 ) at LA Lakers ( -8 ) — T: 223

    RG FORUM DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NBA strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s NBA thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • miggs6876

    Value – K. Martin 3.5k, Poku 4.5k, Santo 4.2k, and Nowell at 4.5k.

    Really like Harris 7.8k, Dipo 7.7k SGA 8k Edwards 7k.

    Jimmy Buckets at 11k! with Bam back and possibly blowout. Pass for me.

    CJ at 8.7k first game back. Pass for me.

    Like Collins 6.5k if Capela is out. Gallo 5.6k and Huerta 5.7k in play too.

    Kuzma 6k and Roby 4.7k look to be in good spots.

    Harrell 6.6k up tempo game and Towns
    9.7k should eat but I never get him right.

    Just a few early thoughts. Thanks

  • Pierce85

    Santo ?? who ?

  • miggs6876

    @Pierce85 said...

    Santo ?? who ?

    Oops Sato for the bulls. Sorry.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Pierce85 said...

    Santo ?? who ?

    Tomas Satoransky (sp?)

  • Pierce85

    No KPJ ?

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Note: Assuming all questionables are in.

    Uta@Bos – Boston is the home team on the front end of a back to back, which inflates the blowout risk. Currently, I have it as a 1.5x the normal chance of being a blowout and regardless, I have Utah as a double digit favorite, so I already grabbed Utah to cover 10.5 at +210. I do have this as the second highest scoring game, yet I have no one projected at 5x here. Right now, I’m showing Donovan Mitchell will be my #2 SG and my #3 overall owned player with Boston in the bottom ten in giving up 3s, which also should bode well for Bogdanovich, but he’s disappeared since Conley’s return, plus there’s a SF I have on autolock. I have no Celtics in any of my top 40 owned players.

    OKC@Chi – Chicago is also a home team on the front end of a back to back and I have this game as the top candidate to become a blowout, even worse than the Miami game at 57% and a 20% chance of being a 25+ point blowout. I took Chicago to cover 24.5 at 10:1, giving me 200% EV. The value is in the PF position with Pok and Roby BOTH over 5.5x and they are my #2 and #3 PFs respectively. With the potential of an extreme blowout, I’ll be forcing Moses Brown and Ty Jerome into 2% of my lineups. SGA is my #3 SG after manually bumping him down with the pending blowout. I like Patrick Williams here as a sneaky play withe what should be a big slow OKC frontcourt and Thad/Carter taking some pressure off him on the inside.

    Cle@Mia – Both teams are on the front end of a B2B and while I’m showing them as the second highest blowout risk, I am also showing them as the highest 25+ point blowout risk. Taking Miami to cover 24.5 at 690 is still isn’t worth it to me, but you know what is? Taking Cleveland to cover -14.5 for +2100. This game is almost the same exact situation as the Clippers of two nights ago that started me on this back to back kick to begin with. I have Jarrett Allen as my #4 center even after manually reducing him for the expected blowout as Olynyk continues to get dominated while being dominating without Bam, who returns. The only other pick I really really like from this game is Dylan Windler as he’ll be blowout proof, will play more than normal against a backcourt heavy bench in Dragic/Herro and in an extreme blowout could get him well over 20 mintues to go along with 10 FGA at minimum price.

    Atl@Hou – My focal point of the slate. Kenyon Martin will be locked in 100% of my lineups. I’m shocked his pricing has not gone up yet. I have Porter, Patton, Oladipo, Young, Capela, and pending on a minute limit, House all over 5x. Trae’s my #1 PG, Glassier is my #1 SG, Martin and Porter are my #1 and #4 SFs respectively, and Capela will be my #1 C with Patton being #5. There is also an above average blowout risk here at about 1.3x the normal chance, but I’m hoping Capela and Trae have done their damage well before it is out of hand. I admit it is scary to look at that Atlanta bench knowing they could easily go on a 20-2 run during the last half of the third quarter and the first half of the fourth.

    NY@Phi – I have this as the closest game of the night, even after figuring in Philly being on the front end of a Back to back at home while NY is on the back end of a back to back on the road. I already took NY to cover the 6 point spread as I got this with Philly by 2. PG is a spot where I’m looking to pay up with all the values at the forward positions and that makes Simmons my #3 PG. Harris is also my #4 PF, but I’ll be so heavy on Roby/Pok that I’ll barely be over the field on Tobias, but definitely over the field on Bradley. With all the value and everyone looking at Howard, I’ll be looking to avoid him and may even fade him completely. The highest owned Knick I’ll have is Elf and that will still be below 10%. Randle will be an autofade for me.

    NO@Por – I have this as the lowest risk of a blowout. Concentrating on the starters here, I have Lillard and Ball as my #2 and #4 PGs. Brandon Ingram as my #3 SF Williamson as my #1 PF and this is the least interest I have had in Kanter and Adams in a while. CJ McCollum makes things a little bit tricky, but I am assuming a 24 minute limit and possibly a bench role here. After going to the well with the real Melo the past two games, I have no interest in him today with the SF value. Vegas has this game pretty much nailed to me and I won’t be touching this one at all.

    Min@LAL – The Lakers are the home team on the back end of a B2B. This should hurt them, but they are the Lakers and this is Minnesota. I have it with a below average risk of a blowout and Minnesota keeping it surprisingly close. As much as I despise the Minnesota defense, I’m still jumping on the under as I have both teams struggling to reach 110. AE is my #4 SG after SGA. I have Nowell, Reid, Harrell, James and Rubio all over 5x and Kuzma just 0.2 FDP away. While neither crack my top 4, I do have Rubio and Nowell in about 40% of my lineups. LeBron’s my #2 SF after locked in Kenyon Martin. KAT and Harrell are #2 and #3 as my Centers behind Capela. Obviously, should Capela be announced out, they will both jump up and Naz Reid could actually make a top 5 appearance.

    Heading for bed, see you guys in a few hours.

  • fleishmo6

    Love reading your breakdowns
    Thanks

  • nerman

    Good stuff Yuker, as always. I think this is a tough slate.

    I want to target UT/BO and would like to know more about Boston’s plan for Smart before locking anyone in.

    If we assume House is back and gets the start how much does that effect K Martin? At least minutes wise?

    Definitely taking either Collins or Capela depending on whether Capela plays or not.

  • fleishmo6

    For those who can bet on FD
    They are doing one of those promotions where you can wager up to 50 dollars and the spread continues to increase per every 2500 people who wager
    Right now the line is like MSU getting about 65 points for Thursday’s game
    So check it out
    SPREAD THE LOVEMSU

  • bazerko

    Random question: anyone else use Fantasy Labs and find their ownership projections are always off?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @nerman said...

    If we assume House is back and gets the start how much does that effect K Martin? At least minutes wise?

    I’m really uncertain on Martin Jr here.

    He only played 10 minutes in the 1st half last game. He did the majority of his damage in the 4th quarter when Boston had a 25+ point lead.

    Certainly could still score well. Certainly the game could blow out again. Yet, there’s a good amount of downside here as well that most won’t account for, especially if House plays. Although, with Nwaba already out, who played 18 last game and if McLemore is out who play 19 minutes last game (although almost all of it in garbage time), that would definitely offset minutes that House would get.

  • dominicanpapi

    If we’re concerned about Martin on FD, Kenrich Williams is right there for the same price. Easy pivot.

    Moses Brown is also 4200. I think he fouled out or had heavy foul trouble last game but yeah, this is looking like an OKC stack, with maybe a Sato and/or LaVine run back, LBJ and a Hawk player or two depending on news.

  • miggs6876

    Yukerboy talked about Glassier at the SG position in the Atl/Hou game. Anyone know who he’s referring too. Is it Huerter?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @miggs6876 said...

    Yukerboy talked about Glassier at the SG position in the Atl/Hou game. Anyone know who he’s referring too. Is it Huerter?

    Oladipo

  • miggs6876

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’m really uncertain on Martin Jr here.

    He only played 10 minutes in the 1st half last game. He did the majority of his damage in the 4th quarter when Boston had a 25+ point lead.

    Certainly could still score well. Certainly the game could blow out again. Yet, there’s a good amount of downside here as well that most won’t account for, especially if House plays. Although, with Nwaba already out, who played 18 last game and if McLemore is out who play 19 minutes last game (although almost all of it in garbage time), that would definitely offset minutes that House would get.

    I hear you Panda. On FD at bare min I think it’s a no brainer.

  • monarch

    I agree. Kmart JR is thin today

  • emnj69

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’m really uncertain on Martin Jr here.

    He only played 10 minutes in the 1st half last game. He did the majority of his damage in the 4th quarter when Boston had a 25+ point lead.

    Certainly could still score well. Certainly the game could blow out again. Yet, there’s a good amount of downside here as well that most won’t account for, especially if House plays. Although, with Nwaba already out, who played 18 last game and if McLemore is out who play 19 minutes last game (although almost all of it in garbage time), that would definitely offset minutes that House would get.

    at some pint martin will bust at 50+% ownership but it is so hard not to play him on fd with his price and his recent production and the fact his team is a trainwreck

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @miggs6876 said...

    I hear you Panda. On FD at bare min I think it’s a no brainer.

    Yeah, hard to not grab some on FD, but might be an under the field type play, assuming he’s going to be like 40%+ owned today. I could see going 25-30%.

    He looks like an awful play on DK.

    Also, all the OKC talk, have to keep an eye on Svi. Him coming in and getting 15-20 minutes off the bat, and on top of that if Dort plays really shifts the whole dynamic there. Guys like Williams and Jerome would be a no go IMO.

  • mbunner23

    I’m also jumping off the Martin train.

  • Theguy49503

    @Yukerboy who is Glassier?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Theguy49503 said...

    @Yukerboy who is Glassier?

    Oladipo

  • NarrowJ

    I think I am going to try to be more balanced in cash games today. ABC and Harden did extremely well, but forced me to play some really shaky options to save salary. I got 142 from those two and 129 from the other 6 guys. Ouch.

    But now, first look at the slate, and Moses Brown and Satoransky are giving me the stank eye from atop of the RG projections. Here we go again with my stars and scrubs thing that I can never seem to get away from.

  • Theguy49503

    @Pandamonious said...

    Oladipo

    Thanks

  • tmarohl

    @Yukerboy said...

    Note: Assuming all questionables are in.

    Uta@Bos – Boston is the home team on the front end of a back to back, which inflates the blowout risk. Currently, I have it as a 1.5x the normal chance of being a blowout and regardless, I have Utah as a double digit favorite, so I already grabbed Utah to cover 10.5 at +210. I do have this as the second highest scoring game, yet I have no one projected at 5x here. Right now, I’m showing Donovan Mitchell will be my #2 SG and my #3 overall owned player with Boston in the bottom ten in giving up 3s, which also should bode well for Bogdanovich, but he’s disappeared since Conley’s return, plus there’s a SF I have on autolock. I have no Celtics in any of my top 40 owned players.

    OKC@Chi – Chicago is also a home team on the front end of a back to back and I have this game as the top candidate to become a blowout, even worse than the Miami game at 57% and a 20% chance of being a 25+ point blowout. I took Chicago to cover 24.5 at 10:1, giving me 200% EV. The value is in the PF position with Pok and Roby BOTH over 5.5x and they are my #2 and #3 PFs respectively. With the potential of an extreme blowout, I’ll be forcing Moses Brown and Ty Jerome into 2% of my lineups. SGA is my #3 SG after manually bumping him down with the pending blowout. I like Patrick Williams here as a sneaky play withe what should be a big slow OKC frontcourt and Thad/Carter taking some pressure off him on the inside.

    Cle@Mia – Both teams are on the front end of a B2B and while I’m showing them as the second highest blowout risk, I am also showing them as the highest 25+ point blowout risk. Taking Miami to cover 24.5 at 690 is still isn’t worth it to me, but you know what is? Taking Cleveland to cover -14.5 for +2100. This game is almost the same exact situation as the Clippers of two nights ago that started me on this back to back kick to begin with. I have Jarrett Allen as my #4 center even after manually reducing him for the expected blowout as Olynyk continues to get dominated while being dominating without Bam, who returns. The only other pick I really really like from this game is Dylan Windler as he’ll be blowout proof, will play more than normal against a backcourt heavy bench in Dragic/Herro and in an extreme blowout could get him well over 20 mintues to go along with 10 FGA at minimum price.

    Atl@Hou – My focal point of the slate. Kenyon Martin will be locked in 100% of my lineups. I’m shocked his pricing has not gone up yet. I have Porter, Patton, Oladipo, Young, Capela, and pending on a minute limit, House all over 5x. Trae’s my #1 PG, Glassier is my #1 SG, Martin and Porter are my #1 and #4 SFs respectively, and Capela will be my #1 C with Patton being #5. There is also an above average blowout risk here at about 1.3x the normal chance, but I’m hoping Capela and Trae have done their damage well before it is out of hand. I admit it is scary to look at that Atlanta bench knowing they could easily go on a 20-2 run during the last half of the third quarter and the first half of the fourth.

    NY@Phi – I have this as the closest game of the night, even after figuring in Philly being on the front end of a Back to back at home while NY is on the back end of a back to back on the road. I already took NY to cover the 6 point spread as I got this with Philly by 2. PG is a spot where I’m looking to pay up with all the values at the forward positions and that makes Simmons my #3 PG. Harris is also my #4 PF, but I’ll be so heavy on Roby/Pok that I’ll barely be over the field on Tobias, but definitely over the field on Bradley. With all the value and everyone looking at Howard, I’ll be looking to avoid him and may even fade him completely. The highest owned Knick I’ll have is Elf and that will still be below 10%. Randle will be an autofade for me.

    NO@Por – I have this as the lowest risk of a blowout. Concentrating on the starters here, I have Lillard and Ball as my #2 and #4 PGs. Brandon Ingram as my #3 SF Williamson as my #1 PF and this is the least interest I have had in Kanter and Adams in a while. CJ McCollum makes things a little bit tricky, but I am assuming a 24 minute limit and possibly a bench role here. After going to the well with the real Melo the past two games, I have no interest in him today with the SF value. Vegas has this game pretty much nailed to me and I won’t be touching this one at all.

    Min@LAL – The Lakers are the home team on the back end of a B2B. This should hurt them, but they are the Lakers and this is Minnesota. I have it with a below average risk of a blowout and Minnesota keeping it surprisingly close. As much as I despise the Minnesota defense, I’m still jumping on the under as I have both teams struggling to reach 110. AE is my #4 SG after SGA. I have Nowell, Reid, Harrell, James and Rubio all over 5x and Kuzma just 0.2 FDP away. While neither crack my top 4, I do have Rubio and Nowell in about 40% of my lineups. LeBron’s my #2 SF after locked in Kenyon Martin. KAT and Harrell are #2 and #3 as my Centers behind Capela. Obviously, should Capela be announced out, they will both jump up and Naz Reid could actually make a top 5 appearance.

    Heading for bed, see you guys in a few hours.

    What does House coming back potentially do to Martin?

  • dominicanpapi

    @tmarohl said...

    What does House coming back potentially do to Martin?

    I could see Martin being around 25-26 minutes if McLemore and House play.

    But if both guys are out, I think Martin gets to 30 and the additional minutes are given to Lamb and Mason Jones.

    Either way 25-30 minutes is still good for a 3500 player.

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