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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    3:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4 ) at LA Lakers ( -4 ) — T: 223
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    RG FORUM DRAFTKINGS LEAGUE

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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @tmarohl said...

    My guess is PJ Tucker doesn’t have any impact himself.
    He will have impact on others.
    for instance, the minutes he plays will probably come at the expense of someone like Brook Lopez

    Right. That’s what I meant.

    If he plays 20-25 minutes, where does he take those minutes from? Portis? BroLo? Do they come off the back end from Connaughton or Forbes?

    How many minutes will Jrue/Middleton/Giannis/Tucker/Lopez play together. Things like that.

  • tmarohl

    @Njsum1 said...

    with a Giannis 🔒 (makes me sick to even consider locking in that guy, always sucks when I’m heavy)

    You mean you played him the four times this season where he put up less than 50 FD points?

  • tmarohl

    @Pandamonious said...

    Right. That’s what I meant.

    If he plays 20-25 minutes, where does he take those minutes from? Portis? BroLo? Do they come off the back end from Connaughton or Forbes?

    How many minutes will Jrue/Middleton/Giannis/Tucker/Lopez play together. Things like that.

    My guess as of now, is that they will experiment with him in the closing lineup. That means Brook or Pat C. He will probably also get any minutes that Thanasis was getting.

  • frugal

    So been doing a few experiments over the last couple weeks, things I’ve learned, all DK perspective:

    1. 10 lineups is my happy place. When I go past 15, I end up hedging a little too much and end up throwing away ~5 lineups, been extremely rare where 1 of those has ended up outscoring my top projected lineups. 10 has been the spot where even on a bad night I’m able to recover 75% of entry fees most nights. Flips side at 5 lineups if my numbers are a bit off on a few players it’s unlikely I cash at all. Granted I’m a low stakes player and my mindset is to win more than I lose every night.

    2. Single entry double ups are significantly harder to cash than tourneys. I already knew this as it’s been a trend the the last few years, but it’s worth noting. On average you need to score 5-10 more points to cash in a double up than tournament. I think point 1 is the reason. In the big tourneys there are a ton of people who hedge a many different scenarios in the hopes of hitting 1st which are essentially donations. That said, if you can hit a double up more than 50% you’ll end the season on a positive note and if you are cashing in double ups that same lineup should be entered into tourneys as it will cash there. There really is no such thing as a cash vs GPP lineup (of course hedges are tourney focused, but those typically don’t cash)

    3. Seems even more so than in years past, putting too much weight into spreads often points you in the wrong direction.

    4. Projected ownership means nothing. The best lineups cash. Which leads me to…

    5. Trust the numbers. I always have to remind myself of this as my basketball brain often forces me to manually remove guys who go off. And so many nights my projections point me to a guy with very low ownership who kills. Hedging ownership ends up in too many scenarios where I’m just donating instead of cashing.

    All that said, some projections for tonight…

    Top 5 in order of DK FP: Giannis, Leonard, Simmons, Valanciunas, George

    Best value in order of FPPD: Lee, Looney, Batum, Poole, Howard

    The guy my projections love that I bet is very low owned: Donte DiVincenzo

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    The guy my projections love that I bet is very low owned: Donte DiVincenzo

    He has been playing really well. (knock on wood). In addition to being the starting 2 guard, he will now also have the task of being the backup PG until the Bucks acquire one.

  • dominicanpapi

    Looney got ruled out.

  • tmarohl

    @frugal said...

    Best value in order of FPPD: Lee, Looney, Batum, Poole, Howard

    Looney out

  • deepfat

    @tmarohl said...

    Looney out

    Val gonna eat. Unless GSW now go small, which is likely.

  • tmarohl

    Looks like Warriors have 10 active guys,
    Dray
    Wiggins
    Oubre
    Poole
    Mannion
    Bazemore
    JTA
    Wannamaker
    Mulder
    Smailagic

  • mbunner23

    @deepfat said...

    Val gonna eat. Unless GSW now go small, which is likely.

    I don’t think GS has any other option than to go small.

  • superjon

    @frugal said...

    4. Projected ownership means nothing. The best lineups cash. Which leads me to…

    5. Trust the numbers. I always have to remind myself of this as my basketball brain often forces me to manually remove guys who go off. And so many nights my projections point me to a guy with very low ownership who kills. Hedging ownership ends up in too many scenarios where I’m just donating instead of cashing.

    When it comes to chalk, I say keep it simple. If you think they’re good chalk, match the field or go overweight. If you don’t like them, then try to play at least 15% of their proj. ownership.

    That way you can at least have a shot at winning if they turn out to be good chalk, and those lineups can still cash even if they’re bad chalk.

  • thegunnard

    RG Forum contest $5….WTF!!!

  • tmarohl

    @thegunnard said...

    RG Forum contest $5….WTF!!!

    Kurve must be trying to be just like DK and change up the prices of the contests :)

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    Daughter came in from Nebraska with my grandchild and life got in the way of of DFS.
    Anyway, strange stat of the day.

    Teams on the back end of a B2B on the road are 51-70 this year, which isn’t surprising.
    Teams on the back end of a B2B on the road are 14-12 in 20+ point margin games, which is surprising.
    A game involving a road team on the back end of a B2B are 21% more likely to be involved in a 20+ point margin game.
    It hasn’t happened in the last 9 times a team has been on the road in the back end of a B2B, so it’s due.
    It should happen 1 out of 5 times.

    Roughly 1 out of 5 games involve a team on the road in the back end of a B2B so far this season.
    Yet, three of the four games on the slate tonight involve a team on the road in the back end of a B2B.
    One of those involve a team on the front end of a B2B at home.
    Teams on the front end of a B2B at home are 50-56. A little surprising.
    Teams on the front end of a B2B at home are 8-12 in 20+ point games. Also a little surprising.

    Put it all together, and what do you have?
    Sacramento by 20+ over Philly.
    Fanduel currently has Sacramento as +1800 for -17.5.
    I’m saying Sacremento has a 1 in 4 chance of covering that.
    A +450 EV.

    DFS-wise?
    Sacramento has 1 win by 20+ points this season.
    In that game, all of their starters still played 31+ minutes.
    What bench player got the most run?
    Cory Joseph. 33 minutes.
    However, Haliburton was on a minute restriction in his first game back when CoJo got all those minutes.
    Haliburton played 34 minutes last night.

    Philly is 4-4 when Seth doesn’t play.
    6 times, Maxey started for Seth.
    1 time, and the most recent one, Korkmaz started for Seth.
    One time Shake started. Korkmaz was out that game.
    Everytime Seth has been out, Shake has 28+ minutes off the bench and 36 when he started.

  • deepfat

    @thegunnard said...

    RG Forum contest $5….WTF!!!

    I like it

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @tmarohl said...

    Kurve must be trying to be just like DK and change up the prices of the contests :)

    Just trying to stay on brand. I clicked $1 but I’m driving so I obviously screwed it up. I guess I better win it tonight

  • jayzee666

    @frugal said...

    So been doing a few experiments over the last couple weeks, things I’ve learned, all DK perspective:

    1. 10 lineups is my happy place. When I go past 15, I end up hedging a little too much and end up throwing away ~5 lineups, been extremely rare where 1 of those has ended up outscoring my top projected lineups. 10 has been the spot where even on a bad night I’m able to recover 75% of entry fees most nights. Flips side at 5 lineups if my numbers are a bit off on a few players it’s unlikely I cash at all. Granted I’m a low stakes player and my mindset is to win more than I lose every night.

    2. Single entry double ups are significantly harder to cash than tourneys. I already knew this as it’s been a trend the the last few years, but it’s worth noting. On average you need to score 5-10 more points to cash in a double up than tournament. I think point 1 is the reason. In the big tourneys there are a ton of people who hedge a many different scenarios in the hopes of hitting 1st which are essentially donations. That said, if you can hit a double up more than 50% you’ll end the season on a positive note and if you are cashing in double ups that same lineup should be entered into tourneys as it will cash there. There really is no such thing as a cash vs GPP lineup (of course hedges are tourney focused, but those typically don’t cash)

    3. Seems even more so than in years past, putting too much weight into spreads often points you in the wrong direction.

    4. Projected ownership means nothing. The best lineups cash. Which leads me to…

    5. Trust the numbers. I always have to remind myself of this as my basketball brain often forces me to manually remove guys who go off. And so many nights my projections point me to a guy with very low ownership who kills. Hedging ownership ends up in too many scenarios where I’m just donating instead of cashing.

    All that said, some projections for tonight…

    Top 5 in order of DK FP: Giannis, Leonard, Simmons, Valanciunas, George

    Best value in order of FPPD: Lee, Looney, Batum, Poole, Howard

    The guy my projections love that I bet is very low owned: Donte DiVincenzo

    I am playing DiVincenzo so if you don’t mind having at least one snowflake….

  • Wsdm61987

    @Yukerboy said...

    Daughter came in from Nebraska with my grandchild and life got in the way of of DFS.
    Anyway, strange stat of the day.

    Teams on the back end of a B2B on the road are 51-70 this year, which isn’t surprising.
    Teams on the back end of a B2B on the road are 14-12 in 20+ point margin games, which is surprising.
    A game involving a road team on the back end of a B2B are 21% more likely to be involved in a 20+ point margin game.
    It hasn’t happened in the last 9 times a team has been on the road in the back end of a B2B, so it’s due.
    It should happen 1 out of 5 times.

    Roughly 1 out of 5 games involve a team on the road in the back end of a B2B so far this season.
    Yet, three of the four games on the slate tonight involve a team on the road in the back end of a B2B.
    One of those involve a team on the front end of a B2B at home.
    Teams on the front end of a B2B at home are 50-56. A little surprising.
    Teams on the front end of a B2B at home are 8-12 in 20+ point games. Also a little surprising.

    Put it all together, and what do you have?
    Sacramento by 20+ over Philly.
    Fanduel currently has Sacramento as +1800 for -17.5.
    I’m saying Sacremento has a 1 in 4 chance of covering that.
    A +450 EV

    You have an excel spread sheet over there Yuke?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Yukerboy said...

    Put it all together, and what do you have?
    Sacramento by 20+ over Philly.
    Fanduel currently has Sacramento as +1800 for -17.5.
    I’m saying Sacremento has a 1 in 4 chance of covering that.
    A +450 EV

    I like the concept. I do think Sacramento can certainly win here. My only concern is isn’t the data on teams deep into an cross coast road trips pretty bad for them too?

  • Pidinolo

    @theIrrigator said...

    Just trying to stay on brand. I clicked $1 but I’m driving so I obviously screwed it up. I guess I better win it tonight

    I’m all about this sht. I’ll be happy to take it for tonight. Thanks in advance.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Wsdm61987 said...

    You have an excel spread sheet over there Yuke?

    Yes.
    However, it’s spread out all over.
    Hard to follow as the only person using it is me.

  • Yukerboy

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Pandamonious said...

    I like the concept. I do think Sacramento can certainly win here. My only concern is isn’t the data on teams deep into an cross coast road trips pretty bad for them too?

    New study!!!

  • frugal

    @superjon said...

    When it comes to chalk, I say keep it simple. If you think they’re good chalk, match the field or go overweight. If you don’t like them, then try to play at least 15% of their proj. ownership.

    That way you can at least have a shot at winning if they turn out to be good chalk, and those lineups can still cash even if they’re bad chalk.

    Good or chalk means nothing in my scenario as I’m trying to trust my numbers. My personal ownership is based off predicted performance only. Looney last night a great example, my projections had him at 7x and his ownership was super low for no good reason, I guess paid projections had him underperforming, no idea. Same with Hardaway, Kleber, and Brown last night. Low owned why? I picked purely off projections and had all.

  • billythekidcowboysheat

    Cashed everything with dumb nance and underwhelming jval.

    Going right back to jval if he can’t hulk smash them now, he should be embarrassed and retire.

    I’m not chasing keldon, but I’m chasing gs again. Wiggens made me eat my words last night, i had to 100% poole, and will again.

    I think wiggens you probly have to play, i mean oubre didn’t look right last night

    Poole, wiggens, dray and possibly 1 of the jta/baze crew. But I’m gonna wait and look at % at 7 and go from there, some sleepers in the later games will go off, the first 2 games will be where everyone goes.

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    • Moderator

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